Another Thursday night game, but this one is in Adelaide. :( :(
I'm not even sure I can get home in time for the first bounce. :(
Going to be wet and blowy.
Not sure if that helps us or the PAP smears?
Helps us IMO. They are quicker than us (most sides are!). We don't want a shoot out, we want a war of attrition. Better if it's wet.
I think they're without Dixon, Rioli and possibly Rozee?
If it's wet, our bigger bodied mids might have an advantage....will definitely need the likes of Williams, Owies, Fogarty and Fantasia (or Motlop) at the feet of Charlie and Harry.
My bad....sounds like Dixon was rested against North and will be available. But if it is wet, hard to see them going with Dixon, Finlayson, Marshall, Georgiades and Soldo?
To beat Port over there is a reasonable effort. Can be done. Pressure will be the barometer. Still not confident we will get the chocolates. They will know we are coming and won’t be complacent. We better hit them hard early.
I think they are beatable and as I keep saying our best is good enough vs anyone, anywhere. As Mantis said, pressure and contested footy is our go and when we bring it, we are hard to play against. I feel like most of the Port players don't like it tough and hard. I'd give Cincotta the job on Butters first up. Fantasia should be able to supplement Vossy's intel on this mob. I sound like a broken record but games like this against a contender on their dung heap can send a message (one way or the other). Which message will we send?
So are we happy to ruck BigH against Soldo or Dixon, they are nice boys, calm and fair, not angry emotional types, they won't target BigH's PCL or ribs if we get on top, ................ will they?
Nup, ruck Pittonet and give'em some treatment back the other way
Tired of us getting worked over by crap trucks. Never miss an opportunity to push back on these arrogant bogans.
Rozee out along with Rioli will help us, pity Dixon looks like returning but Im confident we can cover most of their good players with our own and I think Charlie will have a big game on Zerk Thatcher and Harry will be to good for Esava.
Lose to Port and its going to be a tough couple of weeks with some harder games to come, Port are way over-rated imho and without long time nemesis Robbie Gray to bail them out with the last kick of the day stuff it will be the Blues by around 17 points.
Pitto is out for a couple of weeks so it will be Tom and a combination of Harry, Crippa, Chugga, etc. I suppose that Nige could be an option but probably not in a wet game at night.
I have to laugh at LP’s fears about opposition rucks setting out to harm Harry. While Harry is more than capable of looking after himself, angelic looking Tom is one of the meanest ruckmen going around, and never hesitates to make his opposition aware of his presence. Furthermore, the ruck rotations are usually orchestrated so that Harry only competes against Finlayson.
Dixon is being nursed through the season and usually only takes some forward 50 ruck contests. He will be flat out trying cope with Weitering’s attentions.
Don't jinx us!
You often post about respecting opponents, then you lightly dismiss the opposition's prime battering ram.
BigH's main advantage is his mobility and acceleration for a player his size, a ruck injury could end all that.
If I'm not mistaken, BigH is a twin, and his twin brother Ben has already had two minor PCLs.
Who is the opposition’s prime battering ram; Soldo or the incapacitated Dixon? As battering rams they are both nowhere near as destructive as Tom.
Ben doesn’t play in the ruck and Harry has more chance of suffering a PCL injury in a marking contest. He doesn’t engage in knee up ruck contests but uses his size and strength to out manoeuvre his opponent. That’s why he doesn’t bother with a shin guard.
What BigH does isn't the problem! ;)
Soldo played managed minutes in the SANFL coming back from a knee injury didn't he. Play him I say, he will be underdone.
Cincotta on Butters.
Butters plays well in the wet.
Soldo and Dixon are held together with sticking plaster and will be concerned with self preservation. Finlayson is more likely to be Harry’s ruck opponent and will also be concerned with his own safety.
Harry’s ruck tactics are intended to make the most of his physical attributes while avoiding the collisions that define Tom’s ruckwork. Matty K has done a great job preparing Harry for the backup role and that includes limiting the possibility of collisions. Furthermore, he will rarely have to compete for hitouts against frontline rucks.
I ran the numbers on this last week and pointed out how much you are jumping at shadows with this.
Backup ruck, in this case Harry, would attend about 4-6 centre bounces (depending on how many goals are scored) in a game. Now, generally, that is also against the backup ruck of the opposition, but lets ignore that point for 'worst case scenario' talk that you like to follow.
In those 4-6 centre bounces, tell harry not to jump. Tell harry to flat out move out of the way of anyone jumping at the ball. The chance of Harry contested and winning a hitout to advantage is about 1 in every 2-3 weeks from a centre bounce, so simply concede it. Problem solved.
The benefit to rucking Harry is the around the ground stuff. The ball ups and boundary throwins around the ground pose no risk of injury because the rucks start side by side and he can safely compete in them without an issue.
So please, forget about how injured poor Harry might get in 4-6 ruck contests that he doesn't even have to compete in.
He is more likely to get injured in the 10 pack marks he gets crunched in every week anyway, including by his own teammates!
If it's wet as some have indicated, they might just ruck Soldo and one of Finlayson or Marshall.....hard to see them having Dixon, Marshall and Finlayson up forward in the wet, along with Georgiades....and without Rioli.
If it's up against Finlayson or Marshall then H would be fine. If it's up against Finlayson, Kennedy could probably be enough of a chop out for 5-8 minutes each quarter.
Surfie..Dont think the rucks/tapouts will have much influence, Soldo is a meathead rather than a delicate technician and Id expect him to be more interested in planting his big frame in stoppages and trying to collect a few of our blokes as well as body up on TDK.
It will be down to the midfield dominance and Wines vs Cripps, Drew vs Walsh and maybe Hewett/Kennedy/Cincotta trying to lock onto Butters and JHF, not expecting Rozee to play..
Yeah I don't think they'll risk Rozee....pretty sure they have the bye next week.
Cincotta probably not a bad option on JHF, especially when he goes forward.
To be honest, I can't see us making too many changes from last week unless there's any late injuries we don't know about. I'm not sure there's a lot to be gained by changing the sub from Carroll to Binns.
THURSDAY, MAY 30
Port Adelaide v Carlton at Adelaide Oval, 7pm ACST
PORT ADELAIDE
In: C.Dixon, I.Soldo, F.Evans
Out: W.Rioli (calf), J.Sweet (omitted), C.Rozee (ankle)
Last week's sub: Lachie Jones
CARLTON
In: Nil
Out: Nil
Last week's sub: Jack Carroll
Carlton owes it to the Adelaide supporters.
After so many years of not showing up to the Adelaide Oval.
Hope they bring their game plan and the effort to execute it.
Go Blues.
AI was pretty close to the result last week ;)
It looks like a close one. :D
Stats Insider predicting 89 81 Ports way
Don't tell me you are trying to get a result from using statistics generated from AI? :P
LP is on his 5th paragraph as we type.
I was listening to an IT person on the wireless yesterday and he said that 2024 will be remembered as the last year that the interweb relied almost exclusively on data uploaded and generally verified by people. He wasn’t critical of AI itself but he was very critical of the quality of the data AI is relying on … but that’s a discussion for another thread.
After careful consideration of both teams’ form coming into the game, the team selections and likely matchups, the weather forecast, our record in Adelaide, Port’s home ground advantage, Jacob Weitering’s discussion of our defence and the form of one of his defensive unit at the other end of the ground, the merits of both coaching groups, Charlie’s interview earlier in the week, the modified interpretation of the holding the ball rule, and my gut feeling, I’m going to go with EB and predict that the Bluebaggers will get up by 17 points.
🤞
TDK will give another Ruck/Ruck Rover Master Class at age 24.
Great to see we go in unchanged. Don't see that too often. We are capable of winning. If we enter the arena as the hunter, we win.
Go Blues
An unchanged team. I feel uninspired. Hopefully we can reproduce the form of last week.
However, we generally play poorly at the Adelaide Oval.
Rioli is a big out - they are not overladen with small forwards, and the weather suggests they will be important.......
He is equal leading goalkicker for them this year....
Absolutely
They're pretty much as good as one another- Statistics and predictive AI :P
AI was correct at the time when it published the Stats Insider info.
Argue with it at your peril. ;)
It's an AI's perogative to change it's mind based on Stats Insider changing their's
What can we to do about it
It knows where we live. :D :D
So five hours after giving the game to Carlton it has changed its mind.
On a serious note,
Should we be a little concerned that some of our prime movers might be hobbled a bit by the new interpretation of the holding the ball rule?
The Umpires may be out to make a statement and hit this game pretty hard from the get go to send a message to teams playing later.
Yes, we should be concerned. It will disadvantage Cripps in particular, as well as Walsh, Charlie, and most of our defenders, and we have no time to adjust our current version of playing to the rules.
Yep, our boys are going to have to adapt and adjust... quickly!
However, the same will apply to Port and some of their blokes.
Could be all games this weekend will be effected by the long overdue change. Strong tackling sides could reap a few benefits.
Biggest problem is that the umpires will be influenced by the home ground.
BOM showing no rain in Adelaide.
No rain perfect conditions according to Corne.
massive game imo. If we are genuine top 4 team we win tonight
Sub: Jack Carroll.
Maggots have no problem finding every possible free for port, port the masters of the close in throw