Well the next 3-4 years.
That's our permiership window.
Our side are mostly in their prime in terms of age and experience.
In 4 years just about all our best will be the wrong side of 30
With Tasmania coming into the competition, the draft will be compromised, so given we'll probably be in the top half of the comp, our draft picks will be well down the list in that period.
Some of the Northern academies also seem well set up to siphon off more talent.
You look around at other sides and see young gun midfielders like Reid, Rowell, Horne-Francis, Daicos.
We will have Walsh, but he's not the 'power-impact player' that some of these other guys are, and we have no-one in the Cripps style of player coming through.
As well as that, there is nothing like Curnow, McKay, Weitering already on our list and developing.
There is time for our next generation to be sought out and secured but it needs to happen now.
Does that mean trading to secure some better draft picks?
We do currently have plenty of currency.
The balance is keeping what we need, and letting go some, who may be very good, in the interests of 'sustained success.
We have a side that can win a flag on its day.
What will that side look like in five years time.
Recruit the best Tasmanian kids in this year's draft.
List wise and results wise, you'd think the next 2 or 3 years represents our best chance for a flag in maybe 25 years. But the right combination of list, coach, development, form, injury, luck, "managing moments" etc. remains as mysterious and elusive as ever, and is indisputably more art than science IMO.
I wouldn't be too gutted if we don't win a flag in that time frame. In a way, I really only want to make a GF if we are raging hot favorites, and pretty much guaranteed to win. Losses in finals are never great, but losing a GF is the hardest of all to deal with IMO.
That brings up the old discussion point - would you rather not play in a GF if you were a serious underdog or still be there and risk a beating?
These days just to make a GF is a great achievement and many players and supporters will have to accept that as being as good at it may get. Years ago, with 12 teams and us being a power team, we expected flags every so many years.
Personally I'd take a GF loss over a prelim final loss (or finishing out of contention) - sure the loss would hurt but as the saying goes 'there is always next year'. Glass half full for me.
Yes, no doubt some supporters will share this opinion. For me, a GF just feels too close to fail. Also, and I most certainly haven't looked into this (and I'm happy to be corrected), but I suspect the players are more shell shocked after a GF loss and it affects their performance the following year.
It's an interesting point...
The 1999 Grand Final was one of mixed emotions.
We'd really probably played our 'Grand Final' the week before.
That win against Essendon had most supporters thinking that was a pretty good year.
Even now, 25 years later that 'prelim win' ranks right up there with a flag.
I suppose it boils down to expectations.
If you expect to win you'll be much more disappointed if you lose.
If you expect to struggle and you 'beat the odds' the win means so much more.
I don't think any two flag wins are the same in a supporter's eyes.
The ones that stand out for me are 1970, 1972,1995.
I struggle to remember much about the others without referring back to match reports.
A GF loss can probably have two very different outcomes for a side in the following year.
Some teams struggle with the loss, others use it as a spur for the next year.
I honestly believe we have a list that can challenge for a 3-4 year period - and now that we seem to be a destination club once again, with players taking unders to stay or arrive from other clubs, we could end up with a Richmond-like era ;D if things are handled well.
But let's start with a GF first - once you're in the dance, you have a chance! I've seen many underdog Carlton sides get the chocolates on the big day, because we have a great knack of winning GFs (since I've been going, we are 8-5 - as a comparison, over the same period, the Filth are 2-7 with 2 draws as well).
Just get to that last day in September - then you have 2 hours to make history!
Lods, I agree.
Also, I've taken an increasingly dim view of the 99 PF with the passing of time. In the moment, it gave the impression that the club could maintain its place at the upper end of the competition, when really all it did was fool people and mask a whole bunch of cultural and other problems, which came to roost only a couple of years later.
I was just happy to have taken a flag from essendon. Knew we weren't going to win it and didn't even bother watching but was satisfied we took it off essendon and gave it to North. We were a sife that left too much to too few back then. Hopefully that's not the case with us and batman and Robin.
We've already started with Cowan, he'll end up back in Tassie I reckon. Should get something for him.
My best mate has been saying for about 10 years that he had a premonition back then that we won the flag in 2027.
I don't want to wait until then! Let's hope it's the fourth in a row....!
Draft pool is thin for Tassie kids this season, most of the talent will come from Victoria. Id give us a 3 year window to win a flag, we need to find another Cripps to keep our cycle going or become experts like Geelong at topping up and continually play finals.
You would have to do a bit of a list comparison with other sides.
And not just with numbers of youngsters but quality of youngsters.
I guess my concern is that we're now in our prime with a talented list...but not much coming through in that Under 25 group group.
Where is our Reid, Horne Francis, Rowell etc...
and a side like Sydney has a group of very talented youngsters.
That suggests short term success.
We're fine and competitive for now, but it may not be a long stint at the crease.
Tend to agree Lods. We really need to win it sooner rather than later.
this is why I don't understand people who are too concerned about us picking up options that are a bit unorthodox to what our team needs today. I think we are looking to the future already. The current mob are ready. One more player might make the difference but i don't see the point of picking up depth and ending up like the Tigers once the top liners go, or ending up like hawthorn. I'd rather be Geelong like.
Remember SOS’s comment about building a list for sustained success?
Regardless of whether you think that he was on target to achieve that, it is the ultimate list management objective, but not the only one. We need to be addressing deficiencies, complementing our strengths, building depth, succession planning and doing whatever we can to gain a competitive advantage. If that means taking an unorthodox approach, go for it!
I have been guilty of overestimating and underestimating our list over the last decade. With that qualification, I think we now have our strongest and most competitive list of this century. We can match any team in the competition, on our day and with a bit of luck. I am sure that, if we had made last season’s GF, number 17 would be in the cabinet at Princes Park.
Is that a premiership window opening or closing?
I think that it’s wide open and will stay open as long as the club continues to make good decisions, on and off the field!
Geelong have been the model for sustained success, they have done it their way but there is that caveat that they have mass appeal to players because of the lifestyle opportunities and attracting players has been somewhat easier for them imho plus they virtually have their own U18 team in the Falcons and are able to attract those kids back to the club in some cases.
Agree with the premise of Lods that we have nothing much coming through in the U25 category with the exception of the Campo kids and they are going to have a fair bit of pressure on them to provide Daicos bros type results.
We've got plenty of U25s that are either regulars in the firsts or who are showing potential; Cowan, Motlop, the two Hollands, Kemp, Walsh and Cottrell in the first category and Carroll, Binns, Monahan, Wilson and Moir in the second. Then there's another lot of youngsters who may or may not make it. Then there's another intake, including Scott's boys, to come in this year. Who knows what talent we may pick up?
Depends how you rate those players...Walsh aside the rest are Indians imho and some would qualify as the cigar store type at this at this stage ie 2nd category got beat up by a bunch of no -names from the bottom of the VFL ladder.
We really don't know how those players are going to develop.
It's a bit of a guess.
But is there anyone amongst that group you can see developing into a Cripps, Weitering, McKay or Curnow.
We could see the potential of those guys a mile off.
I'm not as confident with any of those young ones, except Walsh, but even there....
Walsh will give you a 100% and run all day but...
Can he stay on the field, and will he impact a game like a Bont, Cripps, Daicos etc... when the elite are gone?
The others will be servicable...there may be a few who play a couple of hundred games for us, but it's doubtful they'll have the impact of our current elite.
I share the trepidation about the kids but I like the hollands boys. They have that additional bit of class about how they go about it that suggests they could be influential in the future but they'll build to it over time. Nothing wrong with that. Hopefully we'll unearth a gem or two in future.
It's a fine line.
I've been flagging this for a while with recruiting kpps as we have no depth and talent coming through and that it will come back to bite us. Smalls are a bit easier to come across and fluke one later in the draft.
That being said, the best way to improve your list, and quickly, almost overnight even, is to win a flag. Then everyone becomes.better and more sought after from opposition. Everyone becomes more valuable at the trade table.
You can then use that currency to target needs from the opposition.
If marchbank wins a flag with us he'll get us a good pick/player via trade. If he doesn't, he may be desisted for nothing. Ditto Cuningham.
That's how you rebuild a list.
That's how you attract free agents as well.
But..you gotta win it first. Runners up and top 4 have benefits too, but just not as many.
Agreed, clubs have to develop the rarities early in their career.
Mids are about 30% of AFL lists and you can draft as well as trade for them much more easily to plug holes.
Of course fans can carry on making crazy statements like, "we need a Cripps replacement" like they grow on trees! ;D
What we need in most positions is depth, some of our depth is being cruelled by durability issues, sooner or later we have to get serious about correcting that. The lack of depth takes a toll on the better players as well, they are over-loaded.
Some fan favourites might bite the dust in the process.
I'd happily take Liam McMahon as a depth option. He's tall and he kicks straight.
That's the point of the thread. ;D
If we aint got one or two of those, we'll be watching on 5 years from now.
It's about how we'll look in 3-4 years.
Depth is more of a 'now' situation.
Depth won't do us a lot of good without a group like Curnow, Weitering, McKay, Cripps etc
Look, it's possible that our very best may still be performing 5 years from now, even in their 30s
But we just don't know
Because the future isn't guaranteed.
So given all that, it's the next 3-4 years when we need to make our mark.
I'm not too concerned about 4 years away.
McKay
Curnow
Weitering
Cerra
Walsh
Silvagni
Tom de koning
Hollands x2
Motlop
Fogarty
Cowan
Kemp
Cotters
All of them are going to still be the right side of 30 and bar a complete meltdown will all still be at worst afl level.
Boyd, Lewis Young, Corey durdin are others who are all still young enough without being the main events, and then you have a few who are only about 27 and 28 and should still be going around in a few years like cincotta.
We need to keep adding to that age group if we are going to go mature agers and we will pick up some under agers too that will come on. I've deliberately avoided the draftees and debutants who show a little but may not make it. They haven't shown they're capable at the level yet so would be unfair to bank on them in future.
McKay, Curnow and Weitering will be the wrong side of 30 in four years time.
No doubt still capable of good football but maybe moving towards the ends of their careers.
The point of the thread is that these guys and players like Cripps and DeKoning will be at their absolute best in the next four years.
That's when we need to strike...because beyond that it's very much an unknown.
And most of the other listed players, while servicable, are not standouts
Swingman potential has McMahon and impressed today, needs some more kg's to play good senior footy vs heavier bodies but he has the skills. Id see him as depth to cover for our KP's, Lemmey does some ok things but doesnt seem to impact the game as much at this stage but he is still very inexperienced and needs another season to get fitter and learn the game.
Need to think about a couple of specialist mids and some KP types.
A future Weitering definitely. Young and others on our list at the moment, are not going to be up to it.
Lemmey looked good today, but needs to keep it up. He's a guy we're developing.
Hewett and Kennedy are very capable role player replacements if Cripps goes down. The Camporeales will come to us next year. Lucas looks like more of a wingman, nothing wrong with yet another one for depth. Ben looks like a medium-sized midfielder. What's his point of difference for us?
We have a 3-4 year window min imo with the current list. If we are smart we could extend that for another few years but even if we dont the current crop while not without room for improvement you only have to beat the lists we are against and imo our list is as good as anyones. There is no power house club in the next few years so no reason to not believe we cant win a flag in this period. Maybe even 2. And all this nonsense about not wanting to make it this year as we may lose and it hurts too much is rubbish. You can only win one when you risk losing one.
We have some big weapons and great footballers at the moment - lets embrace this period and enjoy the ride and go for it.
The Magoos are also rans and I’d like to see them take the opportunity to try players in different roles.
If McMahon has the tank, he could be a wingman with a point of difference 🤔
He could probably play that Nick Cox role on a wing and sneak down forward...be more of a rookie pick for me than immediate senior list material.
I was impressed when he played down back one game and marked everything that came his way...don't mind Lewis either.
I think when fit Cottrell has one wing covered, and can't see anyone supplanting Acres.
Does McMahon lacks the pace needed to create space at the AFL level?
Also, next season we have SoJ back who in my opinion is another good wing option, perhaps SoJ's best position.
Selection is going to be very interesting in the coming weeks, Cerra, Martin and Motlop all potentially returning.
Cerra yes. Martin and Motlop....play some good footy in the twos first. I think the Martin boat has sailed.
Thought we struggled on the wings vs Essendon....Acres was down and I thought Setterfield was a decent player and on the other wing I thought Ollie only had the 10 possessions and has been down on form for a while unlike his brother who has been getting better each week. With Cerra and Cottrell back I reckon Ollie wont be a starter....
Agree.....Martin might make a good sub for some X factor (Stuart Dew style) in the finals but he wont be adding any pace and I think E Hollands has taken his spot down forward. Cerra is an automatic and Motlop might have to fight it out Durdin, Fantasia and maybe Owies for a place but my preference is Owies.
Just have to be smart about our recruiting.
Newman, Doc, Williams have at least another 2-3 years in them despite their age. You can play into your mid 30s these days if been keeping well and in form. Hawkins, Pendelbury, Boak, Taylor Walker etc etc - players can play for longer than 10-15 years ago imo.
Jack Reiwoldt played good footy until he was 34 years old. Our top enders have plenty left in them their raw talent will keep their form up.
I think at the moment Ollie struggles a bit against the faster sides with heavier bodies, his aerobic capacity gets him to all the right places but can't break free of the contests, and then he often gets stuck chasing blokes he can't catch after a turnover. Another pre-season will fix a lot of the strength issues and he'll deal with the contests much better.
Except Cottrell hasn't played on the wing all season. He has been playing as a high half forward since midway through last season and is playing his best ever footy in that role. In his own words, "People don't come to the footy to watch a
half-forward run his patterns. They come for Charlie Curnow, not a
high half-forward whose job it is to connect with the winger. But it's a good role, it suits my game and the way I play."
If Jack Silvagni ever plays as a winger, he will spend half the game chasing after a speedy opponent before being subbed out. Jack's best position is as a lead up forward.
The labels and where they stand under the 6-6-6 are largely irrelevant, it's where they go in general play that matters and Cottrell and Acres basically mirror each other on opposite sides of the ground from the back pocket to full forward.
Cottrell might have SoJ covered for pace, but I doubt Acres does!
As far as I'm concerned SoJ's very best games and quarters all came with him running the wing. The wing isn't just about pace, it's about aerobic capacity and willpower, that should be fairly obvious to us having just watched the Nik Cox push up and down the field for 4 qtrs last weekend causing havoc for us at both ends of the ground.
Fraser Gehrig says hello!
What to do with Silvagni when he returns is an interesting question.
I see him as taking Kennedy's role.
The question though is... if everyone was fit would Kennedy be playing.
Silvagni is the ideal bench player (not sub), but a player who can provide rests for a number of different positions
Needs to come back ready to play. I worry that SOS biggest weakness after an acl might be amplified and that's his lack of leg speed. He's got a heart as big as phar lap and he won't be going off of the list too soon, but I think he's missed most of our recent matches where we've changed gears and become a better side. There's room for him in the team but it might be as a specialist sub.
You know what LP, I reckon Cottrell knows what his role is and he says it’s connecting with the winger, ie Acres and Hollands.
Silvagni, as a lead up forward, often works up the ground and gets possessions on the wing. That doesn’t make him a winger … and never will.
TBH, i haven't got Kennedy in my best side when everyone else is fit....and that is excluding SOS and Doc.
I championed Kennedy to cover the Silvagni role (3rd tall......and even pinch hitting in the ruck!) and he has done just that. Offers more run by comparison, maybe, but not more leg speed. Both are slow.
I still think there is a need for a 3rd forward in the side and that is not TDK. We only need 1 ruck and if TDK is playing, it should be as #1 ruck or not at all. Yes, that has worked on the odd occasion, but we are actually 2-4 when he has played that role this year....that is all our losses has come when he has played as 3rd tall/backup ruck.
So SOS playing that role works a bit better than any other options on our list. People forget SOS kicked 4 against Port Adelaide last year, which is more than TDK or any other 3rd tall option has kicked for us.
So goes back to your original hypothesis.....who does SOS displace in the best 22.....if Kennedy isn't in it.
That depends on how many of our best 22 are actually fit.
I would expect the 'bottom 6' of our best 22 would include at least 2 (potentially 4) small forwards.....who would be the most likely given the lack of output we've seen by numerous different ones.
Lucky for TDK he's the number 1 ruck then hey!
Tell that to Vossy.
He either stays that way or he swaps him out for Pitto......not both.
I love SoJ as a true Bluebagger, but I fear that whatever direction we go in, TDK is already on a trajectory to pass SoJ bye as a viable 3rd forward as well as still being a premier ruck. Everybody could see this coming, only fans guarding their Favs have failed to admit it.
If I'm cold about it, I'd run rucks mostly off the bench and have Martin as the 3rd forward target well ahead of all other options.
I suspect Williams can cover Owies if they eventually go head to head, and I suspect Owies can probably cover Durdin, but Motlop has the potential to cover both Owies and Durdin. Right now Owies is Mr Reliable so he is something we desperately need.
Some of this is going to come about because Elijah Hollands has changed the Mid/Forward dynamic, I would be interesting to see what he can do alongside Martin or Motlop.
It's a long season, lots can change, but most of our AFL regulars list looks to be on the up.
That line of thinking is based on the assumption that something that hasn't worked in the past will never work.
Because Tom doesn't seem to have the same impact when he's playing 'second fiddle', we assume that will always be the case.
It's based on a very small sample.
It's based on no improvement and adjustment from DeKoning.
It ignores games like the GWS one where Tom was quiet effective with Pittonet rucking as well.
One of the criticisms of DeKoning last year was he didn't really contribute around the ground....that he was 'unrealised' potential.
Well twelve months later and that's not the case anymore.
Walsh and Cripps were quiet on the weekend...Would they have been as quiet with Pittonet rucking for some of the time.
Kennedy and Cripps contested a couple of contests and just ended up giving away free kicks.
I don't necessarily subscribe to either combination...but I don't disregard either outright.
Maybe.
However, i'd prefer to think of it as THIS is what is working, and it hasn't been for a long time, so why try and change that? For what benefit?
People accuse me of playing favourites with Pittonet. That 'favouritism' was based on nothing more than output and stats.
TDK is putting in career best numbers right now, and i don't care if Pittonet is fully fit, I am not picking him. There is no reason to pick him.
I've said all along i couldn't give a stuff who our number 1 ruck is, as long as they are performing. Despite Pitto performing as well as he ever has this year, he lost his spot due to injury and that sucks for him, but he doesn't get back in until TDKs form drops (if it does).
The point is, that i don't want 2 rucks. We don't need 2 rucks. Nobody needs 2 rucks.
Some teams play better with 2 rucks because their team dynamic is different than ours.
Some teams will be more susceptible to 2 rucks (or 1 ruck) based off their own team dynamic.
However, we need to get teams to try and beat us.
When we play 1 ruck, we are tougher to beat.
People worry about our backup ruck getting injured in the ruck and use that as an excuse. Times are different now. That same player is more likely to get injured elsewhere around the ground than in the ruck. When was the last player to get injured in a ruck contest? I can't even remember.
1 ruck.
Right now its TDK.
EOS.
EDIT: Its similar to people who want TDK to play back. Why? We finally have him performing the way we want......why change it?
EDIT2: ...and right on queue...
10 - Tom De Koning (CARL)
7 - Elijah Hollands (CARL)
5 - Nic Martin (ESS)
3 - George Hewett (CARL)
2 - Alex Cincotta (CARL)
2 - Sam Durham (ESS)
1 - Jacob Weitering (CARL)
Coaches votes v GWS
10 - Patrick Cripps (CARL)
8 - Sam Walsh (CARL)
5 - Josh Kelly (GWS)
3 - Tom De Koning (CARL)
3 - Marc Pittonet (CARL)1 - Matthew Kennedy (CARL)
:D :D :D
You won't find anyone more pro-ruck than myself but I'm a bit surprised TDK got 10 votes, I thought he was spectacular at ground level and 2nd efforts but was largely beaten in the bulk of fundamental ruck work.
Goldstein went through a golden period for a Qtr and a half that basically brought CheatsFC back into the game.
I thought an even bigger problem for us last Sunday was that our 2nd ruck options were soundly beaten, when we didn't have TDK we basically lost all momentum.
For mine, the best 22 is almost there. I would be looking at Cotters in and Cerra in and then maybe looking at what we do with our rucks/jsos.
As we all expected hes a best 26 player now.
It's no accident that teams which go through a season using the least players often end up at the pointy end of the ladder.
If Martin comes back in and can stay fit, I agree with Kruddler and think that maybe Kennedy gets squeezed out. We've got Fogarty and E. Hollands who can run through the midfield and then both play as forwards as well. If that rolls into next year, hard to see how Kennedy, Silvagni and Martin could all play in the same team? Yes, it comes down to who's fit and I can't remember the last time we had a full list to choose from....but SOS probably squeezes back in with the ability to play backup ruck too.
I think Harry's improved ruck work might have put an end to Jack's future as a part time ruck unless we have injuries.
I like Kennedy in the team and while he may not be the greatest footballer he is a cog in that midfield setup that helps Cripps and Walsh do their job and along with Hewett gives us those blue collar workers you need around the ball.
E. Hollands is more of a finisher and creator and adds that goalkicking mid you need, throw in Cerra with TDK feeding them all and its a nice setup to have. I cant see a spot for Jack other than as a backup for injuries and when players get their workload managed and unfortunately he might be better at another club if he wants to play regular footy.
In response to all of the comments above about who gets a game and who doesn't - what a nice problem to have!
One thing to be aware of - some players may not necessarily have a compelling case to stay in the side based on football contributions, but sometimes their presence is important for less tangible reasons. We seem to have a great on-field camaraderie at the moment (check out the post-goal celebrations!), and that is like having a 19th man on the ground. Whatever is in the water at CFC right now is of great benefit - and only those closer to the playing group will really understand what the best mix is.
So, sometimes we see players picked, or left out, and it may be a result of how it brings the group together, nothing else.
The match committee seems to have tapped into something, so I am happy to back them right now.
Got to love the depth we have now. Locks from last year in Martin and Motlop, are not. They will need to work for it. Might also need to wait for their chance of someone else getting injured as well.
We were about the 6th best team that year that got an out of form side in the SF then caused a big upset when rank underdogs. We went 12-10 so we weren't real good. Unlucky with injury in 2000 and wasted 2001, where we beat the Grand Finalists in every game we played, one by 74pts, but lost games when we shouldn't have. Remember the 2000 game against Essendon where we lost 3 big guns before 1/4 time, including Kouta, and only just got run over at the end.
Perhaps the longest injury-list in the competition as well in that infamous 2002 season explains the sudden drop right down to the bottom of the ladder.