Geelong let a huge lead go against Sydney.
As far as I am concerned its pay back time and expect nothing less from this group other than beating them handsomely.
A geelong friend of mine reminded me it was 20 year anniversary of the wiggins/riccardi touched goal yesterday.
Would probably enjoy a win over the puddy twats more than the win against the bombers.
Would really set us up for the season as well.
Three screwin years in a row where we lost after the siren as well. It happened against Port Adelaide much later on (they were also the first in that streak, 2000, which was a shocking loss against a shocking team that year), but I didn't see it. Thankfully. Hopefully never will again. Thankfully Jack Newnes did it against Fremantle and we saw the joy of us winning after the siren for once.
I feel very confident about this one and think we can get the four points against a team on the slide.
Stanley copped a real bake in the media after the game for his efforts after half time on Grundy and Id expect him and a few other Cats like Cameron and Hawkins to fire up for this game and I expect a much tougher game than we got from Essendon.
I wonder also if C.Scott will consult B. Scott on tactics etc and try and get some early intel on how we setup and how to control Cripps, Walsh like the Bombers did. I presume they would talk to each other and discuss stuff like that during the week?
As long as we have a plan for Cameron, we should win this. Hopefully we've learnt something from the last couple of games we've played against them. He has been the difference.
For mine, there is a pattern of play I see play out frequently and it annoys me.
We are between the arcs, have an outnumber running forward, and somehow turn it over allowing our opposition to sling shot. The next defender leaves his man to pressure the ball carrier. Thing is when there is an out number all you do is burn petrol tickets to pressure the ball carrier, only for a quick release hand ball and that allows relatively unpressured forward entry with a chain of quick handballs and numbers around the ball. Leaving the man at half forward to put pressure on here just creates an out number deeper. Our defense is good, but not good enough to allow that.
It happened a few times in the 3rd quarter, and against Geelong we did it repeatedly. Allows too much easy run through the middle particularly in waves. I think there its better to make them run it, hold your man and cut off the options. They'll either run themselves into trouble or not but the percentages isn't to leave your man and not impact.
Add Stengle to the watch and plan list.
GTC.....Cats don't have a dominant midfielder at the moment so it wouldn't surprise to see Cincotta go to someone like Stengle and do exactly what he did against Pickett.
Hmmm, Dangerflog is due back against us and he dines out on us normally.
This week v the Tiggers:
Bowes and Holmes at 29 each
Duncan Atkins and Dempsey 27 each
Bruhn had 26
There's a bit of midfield power there stats wise.
Surfie..Id be putting a player on Holmes if we can find one quick enough to stay with him.
We were missing some key players from the weekend last time against Geelong.
McGovern
Saad
Fogarty
Cincotta
All fast and can defend.
Four very significant inclusions, balanced to some extent by the absence of Cottrell and Pittonet.
If Pitto is still out it's quite a big loss, was possibly one of our best against them last time.
I wonder if Dangerflog will be back again to take out some of our ruck and Mid lower limbs around stoppages?
Cincotta to Cameron ;)
Time for a big scalp :D
(just joking :) )
Cincotta to Stewart...... Stewart didn't play last time, either
I reckon Tuohy is involved in a disproportionate number of the Handbagger scoring events, I'd make him accountable, because he is also often the one delivering the footy to the likes of Cameron or Hawkins.
We've gone back to the future a little bit with tagging and who to tag.
Tagging the finishers is a better tactic than tagging the bloke at the coal face. Sometimes the finishers play in the middle, sometimes the wings, sometimes off half back. Work out who they are and tag them.
Tuohy falls into that category, but a few do.
I wouldn't be tagging Dangerfield. He kicks it to the opposition as much as he does his own players. Let him get the ball......just not within 60m of goal, because he'll find them.
I'm not sure we can let the Handbaggers bring the footy so easily to the wing like we did CheatsFC, the Handbaggers won't waste it as much and are much harder to cover in F50.
We can't let the Handbaggers have such a big i50 differential, they'll open us up like tinned tuna!
Max Holmes is their biggest ball mover and influential player by far.
Zak Tuohy is often very damaging when they play us, seems to go up a few gears. Kicked 3 or 4 last time drifting forward from memory. Needs to be watched closely.
We'll smash em like guitars.
Two Scott scalps in consecutive matches....has a nice ring to it!!!
No doubt some will poo poo this as woke, PC nonsense, but this is the Carlton Respects game. I think it's great that the club has taken this initiative, on what is surely a scourge to all of humanity. Anything that can raise awareness and set acceptable standards and boundaries for behavior towards women can only be a good thing.
This is one of the main reasons we were able to get a women's team up and running from day 1 when they were choosing licenses.
Good initiative from the club.
only problem i have with this game is the fact our record in it is quite poor. I think we've won maybe one of these matches since we started them.
Has nothing to do with it of course.
Any word on whether Cerra will be fit this week? If so, presumably straight back in.
The club website says he will be assessed after the bye, i.e basically now. No word beyond that.
I reckon he might need a run in the magoos first..
Yes, that sounds reasonable to me. He's been out since the 9th May, so it will be 6 weeks by the time Friday rolls around. Hard to say if the club will be tempted to roll the dice and name him.
And right on time :
https://www.carltonfc.com.au/news/1581033/injury-news-six-nearing-returns
Adam Cerra (hamstring)
- Back in full training
- Availability: one week
Sorry mbb, I didn't see your post.
I would think no change this week which is a sign of strength
(Possibly Cunningham for Carroll / Motlop for Durdin but I'd keep the stability. Pitt should play twos)
Given their injury history, both Cunningham and Martin should be coming back through the VFL. Cerra, I'd back him in as soon as he's ready to go.
I thought Durdin looked alright when he came on last week.
We might go in unchanged again?
Interesting listening to Daniel Hoyne on SEN earlier. Didn't catch it all as I wasn't in the car long but he spoke about us on two matters:
1. Long kicks Down the Line - We only win 20% of them
2. Looking for an alternative (45 kick and go around the "wall" to get I50) - We do this the 2nd least in the comp.
As I said, I didn't catch it all but what I did hear was:
- With regards to 1. he was talking about the fact we win more when we play two designated rucks.
- Harry was the go to man for 1. but hasn't been winning anywhere near enough of the contests lately.
Hoyne said it will be fascinating to see if Vossy and co. focus on 1 or 2 this week vs Geel. That is, do we bring in Pitto to address 1 or do we focus on doing 2 more.
He is fantastic to listen to when he talks strategy, I wish I had time to listen to all his segment on SEN.
Most of the time we go long, its not necessarily to win the ball. Its to not lose it.
Its easy for the defender to spoil towards the boundary and force a throw in.....or spoil to the ground and force a ball up.
Either way, a stoppage is better than a 50-50 for us as we are one of the best, if not THE best in the comp in that regard.
re 2 rucks.....obviously an extra tall makes us more likely to mark more of them.
TDKs best game for us as a forward came against Geelong earlier this year. A fact i'm sure is not lost on our MC in regards to potentially bringing in Pitto.
I heard Hoyne also on SEN, it was very interesting.
So, when we go down the line out of defence between the arcs , we only retain possession or half the contest 20% of the time.
Worst in the comp and worst for many years over the last 4 weeks.
Conversely, when we switch play from defence we are the most successful team in the comp at retaining possession. However, we only switch the play 20% of the time.
So Hoyne posed the question do we bring in Pitto to fix the down the line problem but potentially weaken our transition game or do work on switching the play more out of defence.
I'm firmly in the camp of the 2nd option.
GC. You can download the SEN app and check the podcasts. I tend to do this as I don't listen live anymore as no in the car s much while WFH. I usually download it and listen to it while on my morning or afternoon walks.
I like listening to Hoyne's analyses but looking at plays or play phases in isolation misses the big picture. Kicks down the line seems to be a last resort for us and many of ours are dump kicks intended to clear the defensive 50 and enable us to set up behind the ball. Short kicks, forward handballs and running the ball seems to be our preferred transition method and we do that very well.
Our long kicks down the line work best when Harry or Charlie provides the target. De Koning has managed to clunk a few marks down the line in recent games but providing an outlet target down the line isn't a strong point. Pittonet rarely takes a mark at all and the only way his addition to the 22 would improve our ability to win or draw down the line kicks is by allowing Harry or Charlie to play up the ground more often.
Our last four weeks includes the Sydney game where our systems broke down for much of the game. That poor effort will skew our data to some extent. The next three games were convincing wins against teams in reasonable form and, while there's always room for improvement, I wouldn't want to be changing much for the Geelong game.
Pitto's go is playing a kick behind play as the zoning D50 ruck option, he is very clever in this role and positions himself well, which forces opposition clubs to go wide and that gains our team some time to setup. As
@DJC points out he is not a marking option down the line, and in any case he is often behind the footy not ahead of it.
TDK is a beginner and not reliable, but he'll get better, we need to persist with him forward of the footy so that combining with BigH and Charlie they can get the position / separation sorted out. Nothing pisses me off more than seeing the three of them flying for the same mark dragging their opponents to the footy.
TDK, BigH and Charlie are all very mobile for their size, they need space to take advantage of that not traffic, when they are dragged into traffic it's a win for the opposition.
I see that as an organised set play where one of the three is the designated marker and the other two are running interference.
If it's not Charlie, Harry and Tom in the contest, Owies, Durdin, Cotters, etc will be there setting blocks and disrupting the defenders.
Dont see the big deal with the ruck setup, TDK is playing the best footy of his career as the lone ruck and Harry has been ok as the fill in....why change that vs Geelong who have a rubbish ruckman in Stanley and/or a rookie kid in Conway.
If it was TDK vs Darcy and Jackson or Draper/Goldstein, Cox/Cameron etc then you would think about Pittonet but vs Geelong Id be sticking with TDK only after last games efforts...
regarding the long kick especially from FB is i think one of our weakness,i have watched over the years how the opposition just set up and ball just rebounds back. When was the last time we found a lose player outside 50 and spotted him up
Stanley and Conway are way down in the ruck rankings but the Geelong ruck that concerns me most is Blicavs. He'll probably be running with Cripps but his athleticism when he goes into the ruck will trouble our second stringers or De Koning in the unlikely event that Pittonet is back. Blicavs might cause a minor headache or two but I don't think our MC will be losing sleep over him.
Just back to the down the line discussion; how often do Weitering, Kemp, McGovern and their mates intercept opposition kicks? I reckon we'd be well ahead of most teams when it comes to intercepting kicks down the line.
Despite Hoyne's earnestness, it's not a huge problem.
Yes agree! We go from having 100% control of the ball, to a 50/50 contest.
Not always the kickers fault, lack of our players leading into space also comes into play.
Ab
The last time was Kemp to Boyd in the last quarter against Essendon. Just before that it was Kemp to Fogarty and before that it was Saad to Boyd. Earlier in the last quarter, Ollie Hollands wasn't loose but Saad kicked cleverly to his advantage.
We had 99 marks to Essendon's 84 and only 8 were contested so we're not too bad at spotting players up.
Blicavs has been way out of form this season and as Kane Cornes has pointed out now has a bad habit of kicking on his non preferred left foot all the time with poor results making him ineffective and his ruckwork hasnt been great either, 3 hitouts last game.
We will probably get more opposition from the kid Conway and Hawkins rucking down forward than Stanley and Blicavs imho.
How Stanley has survived so long as 1st ruck at such a powerful club is one of footballs modern wonders....
I wouldn't mind going in roughly how we lined up last time we played Geelong. Execution hurt us more than anything else. We had plenty of opportunities and they played efficient footy. Almost got them despite performing quite poorly for long periods of the day. A little more outside run is all we need.
Agree, more run v the Cats would be very handy.
The only possible change I can see us making this week is maybe Motlop coming in....just to add a bit more pace. But that said, the Owies/Williams combination has been working well and we haven't really relied on a big bag of goals from Charlie or Harry all year.
Barring any unforeseen injuries I'd expect an unchanged line-up. Time to start building a consistent group. The only in's before finals would be Cerra, Cottrell and MAYBE a "I promise you I won't hurt myself again" Martin.
Oh, and stop Cameron. Should put these pretenders in their place.
Go Blues
Williams to Stewart.
Cincotta to Holmes.
Kemp to Cameron with Kennedy to help out when he runs through the midfield.
Possibly bring Motlop in for Carroll, otherwise no change.
Just on Williams; he went back into defence in the last quarter against Essendon when McGovern was off and played hard-nosed defence. He has also been spending time in the midfield. Having versatile players who can play multiple roles is a bonus.
We really should be beating teams like Geelong, otherwise WE are the pretenders
Not super confident about his game. They've had the wood on us for a long time, and are far from a spent force. Both teams should be pretty evenly matched.
The usual suspects need to be respected:
- Stewart
- Hawkins
- Cameron
- Stengle
- Myers
Tanner Bruhn ruled out for them with injury.
You forgot Tuohy..torches us every time
Vossy’s thoughts:
“… acknowledge that there are some really important players to Geelong that help them execute the way they want to play.
Certainly [Tom] Stewart is one of those, but they’ve got players in the midfield and up forward that we’ll need to make sure that we take care of. They’re all things to keep in mind but we’ll still come into the game largely focused on how we field our own game and how we get our own game going.
We know if we have that in shape, we have enough to challenge the other way."
Sounds like Dangerfield in, Bruhn out.
I read on a FB page Vossy suggested Marchy would come in. Ill spew up if that happens
Voss also said that Cincotta will have a run-with role, but he understandably did not specify who.
In orazio out Carroll.
Interesting. Probably better for balance provided orazio is the sub.
Stewart would be too big and too good in the air for Williams imo....Cincotta to Holmes is a good move as he is their major playmaker these days and his pace his going to be concerning. I'd have Boyd on Myers too..stitched us up last time and gets under the radar a bit.
Yep, anything else doesn't make sense.
Tom De Koning the sole ruck again.
The thing with Williams is that his recent goal scoring would make his opponent nervous and reluctant to play off him. Williams also has a defender's mindset when the opposition has the ball. They're pretty close in size and Stewart relies on getting free to take uncontested marks.
Sam De Koning will take Harry and I'd imagine that Stewart and Kolodjashnij will try to double team Charlie. Williams is playing well enough to disrupt that match up and that should suit Charlie. Kennedy is another possibility to put time into Stewart.
Those photos Fantasia must have must be pretty shocking
No passengers.
Carroll, Fantasia and Durdin have been just rotating the bottom 2 spots.
Carroll and Durden might have a future the other doesn't
He has photos, video and a full report from a private investigator.
It's beyond the feckin joke , he adds nothing!
He's in the team of the 2nd placed side, he might be a premiership player in 3 months.
Fantasia has footy smarts and experience over the other two, but it would be nice if he troubled the scorers.
Carroll (hopefully) and Durdin have time on their side to gain experience and develop their game but I think that the MC values what Fantasia brings in terms of his ability to perform a role.
The fact those three are fighting for the last two spots is encouraging, particularly as we have some arguably best 23 contenders to come back.
Interesting out for Geelong...Stanley is out injured yet named as an emergency.. Im calling that dropped. Blicavs to ruck alone unless they make a last minute change. Maybe they have just conceded the ruck and want a mobile group of ball winners in the middle to rove to TDK.
Our line-up:
B: [37] Jordan Boyd, [23] Jacob Weitering, [17] Brodie Kemp
HB: [24] Nic Newman, [11] Mitch McGovern, [42] Adam Saad
C: [4] Oliver Hollands, [9] Patrick Cripps, [13] Blake Acres
HF: [8] Lachie Fogarty, [10] Harry McKay, [6] Zac Williams
F: [44] Matthew Owies, [30] Charlie Curnow, [39] Alex Cincotta
R: [12] Tom De Koning, [18] Sam Walsh, [29] George Hewett
Int: [2] Lachlan Cowan, [7] Matthew Kennedy, [20] Elijah Hollands, [19] Corey Durdin, [14] Orazio Fantasia
Em: [3] Jesse Motlop, [22] Caleb Marchbank, [27] Marc Pittonet
I'd rather have Pitto play, but ...
I'm glad Marchbank didn't get the gig: he couldn't keep up with Cameron.
Cameron is the one we have to squash. He's kicked too many goals against us recently.
Motlop an in next week, probably. MC might have thought he needs another week to get fresh.
Geelong are massively undersized in the ruck. Blicavs and the 2nd ruck will have a long night ahead of them, Tom and Harry should be fine. Tom especially could be in for a best in his career performance.
EB....I wouldn't be surprised if there's a late change and Stanley comes back in...or the other ruckman. Hard to see them just going with Blicsav....who would their backup ruckman be for 5-8 minutes each quarter? Blicsav can run all day but doing it while rucking would be a huge effort.
We smashed them in the ruck and in the centre last time. It did not matter, we couldn't stop their rebound.
Yep so this time around we will break even in the ruck, but they have a new clearance beast to worry about in De Koning. I reckon they will counter punch us again. Lets hope our players dont become too reactive like last time and go closing down the ball carrier between the arcs leaving outnumbers in defensive fifty. There were at least 6 to 8 goals that could have been prevented just by holding position last time.
Last time we played them we didn't have Saad or McGovern, relying on Young, and Stengle got off the hook multiple times.
Also at the other end of the ground they cleaned up pretty everything at ground level inside our F50, we had four lightweight SF players in Carroll, Owies, Ollie and Binns who barely touched it out bodied by the heavier Handbagger defence. It won't be so easy with Williams in our F50, but they have Stewart back to compliment Guthrie and Tuohy.
TDK will have a much tougher gig this week, TDK will probably win the taps but find it much harder to follow up against Blicsavs. But at least if Blicsavs is focussed on TDK he can't be also guarding Cripps. As long as the umpires don't change the ruck rules half way through the game like they did last time, hopefully Scott's complaints have no impact.
Still not getting the hostility towards Fantasia. Has played 10 games this year, and as per the club's official statement, missed the R13 Essendon game with a shoulder injury. And back in tonight.
Just have to trust the MC.
We are a different team than when we played them last, we now have a fit team playing well and they are on the slide.
He's just no good , simple. He's off the pace, fumbly under pressure, doesn't hit the scoreboard- need I go on?
Fogarty was out back in Rnd 7 as well, someone I forgot to mention.
Could we, should we take someone like Stewart, Tuohy or Guthrie out of the game by having Cincotta tag them?
Stewart was missing last time IIRC, he is a huge in for them
I think Stewart was the only player they had out, we had 3 or 4 from memory. Their form since that game has been ordinary and ours has been pretty good, other than the Sydney game. Keep up the form of the last couple of games against Port and Essendon and we should win.
After the last game my Geelong mate said Stewart was better than all of our injury list put together and that they beat us on our home ground despite it being their home game.
Funny haven't heard from him since. He'll be hearing from me tonight, hopefully.
That was my friends comment as well when i mentioned this game. "So its down at GMHBA yeah?, since last game was your home game." ::)
I said "you're welcome" for providing them with their biggest ever home game attendance.
We have brought Cincotta, Fogarty, McGovern, Saad and Fantasia in for Cottrell, Pittonet, Binns, Young and Carroll from the Round 7 team.
They have Stewart, Rohan, Clark and Mullin in for Stanley, Bruhn, Guthrie and Parfitt.
On balance, our ins mean a lot more to our structure than the Geelong ins and our outs are less significant.
Durdin sub. :-X
Looks like it will be De Koning vs De Koning in the ruck. That should please Harry and Charlie.
Dangerfield, what a dog, tried to slam Walsh into his knee, "Just accidental of course!"
Dangerflog seems to be involved in in way too many such accidents / incidents, just unlucky I guess!
Is there a game thread?