I've just done three ladder predictions.
Whilst we've been in the doldrums of late I still have us winning our next 3 (nothing is gifted or guaranteed).
I messed with it anyway just to test it.
Irrespective of our form I have us up against a Sydney team in week one of the finals. What's variable is Sydney. If their capitulation continue and based on last night that could be possible because confidence as we've seen can really cost you when you flirt with form, it will be the one thing that really turns things upside down.
So, based on the current most likely outcomes with no real dramatic changes, we finish either 4th or 5th, and face one of gws or Sydney most of the time.
Not dire but not ideal. Win week one of finals and anything is possible though.
On current form Hawthorn will flog us.
even that's too pessimistic. They aren't that good. They've beaten teams in tassie and aside from that show as much substance as the bombers did when they were sitting top 4.
We'll see what happens today. If they knock off gws my phantom ladder is already out the window and next week becomes harder.
We've always been their biatches and this will continue next weekend. They know we're soft and will ruthlessly demolish us.
The way Sydney are playing, they might get a home final in week 1 and lose.
If we are in the 5-8 bracket and win week 1, we have a 50% chance of playing sydney in sydney week 2. Not ideal.
If we manage to sneak into the top 4, we might play sydney in sydney anyway....if for some miracle, we win, we'd get home finals from there though.
Too many variables to get an accurate representation of the final 8 and who gets a home final and where.
We'll know a lot more after our game next week i suspect.
2 weeks ago they beat Collingwood by 10 goals.
Last week we only lost by 14 points to Port. This week port won by 20 goals against top of the table Sydney.
Its like the old industry superfund adds say "Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results"
I believe our best can beat anyone. I did say on current form.
What is current form though.
It changes week to week.
Hell, it changes quarter to quarter.
This year has got a similar feel to when the Dogs won the flag.
We just need to win the final 3 games and work on continuity and form. Just look at the way Port, Dogs and the Shockers have turned it around. Our best team can beat anyone. Put TDK, Williams and the whipping boy (Fantastic Fantasia) back in the mix. Cerra to be wrapped in cotton and only to be used in Finals. (over to you conditioning team). Like to see Binns come in for next week and stick with him till Cerra is OK (wont happen).
Vossy talked about continuity in the mix so I dont expect many changes for the next 3 weeks.
How the Fark we end up with 16 on the injured list.
I know they were all first 22 who came in but it goes back to there being 4 changes this week, it’s not helpful.
Continuity rules.
Brisbanes year in my opinion. Few injuries and they will likely get 2 home finals and into the GF against most likely another interstate team. Got within a kick last year and the field is weaker this year.
We needed a top 2 finish to have a real chance. Finishing outside that means going interstate and even if we get form back and are healthy which having both is unlikely still history tells us the home team win nearly every time.
So on current form of the last 10 minutes of the match, we are as good as anyone.
Just did a ladder predictor, which included Sydney struggling for a bit longer and i had 6 points separated 1st to 10th!
5 teams finishing on 56 points taking up 6th -10th.
Is this the most open year in history?
Reality hits in the finals when you have to play the Swans, Lions and GWS on their home decks and their home ground advantage comes into play even more. We have to finish second to avoid that, on the MCG, Marvel we can beat anyone anytime inho but winning finals interstate is a hard ask and with a depleted list and sore players its going to be even tougher.
With Hawks winning today (likely) it looks as if it just about guarantees us a place. Would have to be very unlucky to not get in.
Top 4 is out, but fortunately we should play at the G week 1 (away) by my calcs. Either Cats or Dogs, which would be a blessing at the G
Where do you have the Dogs finishing? Taking about form its them and Lions at the moment.
EB we cant beat an egg at the moment, marvel, MCG or Timbuktu.
We are around the mark for sure, but in any season, let alone a season as tight as this one, “around the mark“ won’t get it done.
We are a super side for one qtr each week. Every week form one qtr have run, skill and look like a premiership side. Not sure what happens in the other 3 qtrs. Been every week the last 5 weeks.
We just have to play fit players. Cerra and Cottrell coming back from long injury breaks was 2 too many and we lost our run. Can bring so many back and it's ok, but that was too many. Won nothing since. Conservative team selection rather than fit blokes that can run all day. West Coast were cruelled with injury in 2018 and had 5 out on GF day. Thing is they played fit blokes who could go all day and were rewarded with the flag.
I still think with fit players its a tough job beating those teams at home and made more difficult in finals, you have to be top 2 or 4 at worst to give yourself a second chance. We seem to win the ball a lot and play keepings off racking up stats then turn it over in dumb fashion and if you look at our stats each week we tend to dominate the teams who beat us for large parts of the game but get poor reward for our efforts..
they either end up top 4 beating all comers or are just too late. They've got a decent run home and have been good but their bubble will likely burst.