Carlton Supporters Club

A very strange round just done, another looks to be on the horizon.
St Kilda were very good after half time. In the first half, our 2's could have beaten them.

Well - we need to avoid playing Brisbane at the Gabba if we make the finals.

Blues easily IMHO....Saints are a horrible watch and I don't rate them at all.Looked good vs a over rated Geelong but are a bottom eight team going nowhere.

Ill say this, Ross is the master of dragging you down to his teams level. This will not be an easy game IMO.

Once again the unpredictability of our line up and how to match up on it may cause the Saints a few headaches.
Lyon's style of play would rely on shutting down certain key movers, so expect Cripps to get some solid attention.
But we should have a lot of 'unknowns' across the field that may be harder to pin down.
Who's in, where do they play?

Once again the unpredictability of our line up and how to match up on it may cause the Saints a few headaches.
Lyon's style of play would rely on shutting down certain key movers, so expect Cripps to get some solid attention.
But we should have a lot of 'unknowns' across the field that may be harder to pin down.
Who's in, where do they play?

Ross will have that mob fully wound up next Sunday, nothing would satisfy him more than killing off our year.

Someone will need to come in for Durdin but it wont be like for like.

Historically Marshall has dominated Pitto, and Marshall is in good form, was among the BoG against the Cats and ripped Stanley a new one.

By comparison the Williams ruck duo were non-events, Bailey Williams got some taps but taps as always are mostly over-rated, and Bailey Williams had near zero other influence which left Pitto to dominate.

Marshall wins taps, gets around the field and puts in big on 2nd efforts, Pitto is going to need a bit more than superficial help this week.

Ross Lyon is going to do what any coach would do, which is to do everything in his power to get a win. You can't dog him for that. The Saints are a much tougher outfit than WC, and we'll get a good read on where we're at after this game.

Earlier in the year, pre the slide of the last 6-7 weeks and pre key injuries, I'm confident we would have swatted them away like flies. This week is a different proposition. Its this which irks me most.

No doubt. But I think all the top teams have had a few weeks of poor form. Ours has come, along with injuries, at "a most inopportune time."

Williams is a undersized ruckman who is really a KP Forward by trade and has been forced to play ruck, Pitto was ok but a dominant game from Pitto is hardly anywhere near a dominant game from TDK who  would have had 50 hitouts and 30 posessions vs WC and that would be on one leg.
Chris Scott virtually conceded Geelong were going to get flogged in the ruck and Marshall would dominate but implied they had planned for it, turned out it wasnt much of a plan and I think we need to do same but with a better plan than Geelong which I think  we can implement with our better and deeper midfield group.
Wilkie will get his 10 intercept marks if we keep bombing it long to nothing and Id be more interested in Kemp playing on him and preventing that happening and the associated rebound that he creates. Dont expect Kemp to kick another four goals but preventing Wilkie dominating will go a long way towards winning the game.
We also need to tag Sinclair, it will be a travesty seeing him rack up another 30 disposals without much effort like he usually does..

Bailey Williams has rucked for his entire AFL career, is the same size as Tom De Koning and is just a shade smaller than Pitto.  He is ranked one spot behind De Koning for hitouts this season.  He was ranked 11th in the competition for hitouts last season, one place ahead of Marshall and several ahead of Gawn, Cameron, Xerri and Pitto.  I doubt whether De Koning could have done any better than Pitto against Williams and probably would have conceded more hitouts.  Marshall is a very polished ruckman but it will be a tight contest if Pitto can reproduce the form he showed in Perth.

West Coast won the hitouts but we dominated the clearances.  Geelong smashed St Kilda in hitouts but only just won the clearances, in part because Marshall was more focused on clearances than hitouts.  Our midfield should dominate, even if Marshall gets on top of Pitto in ruck contests.  Pitto's main challenge will be negating Marshall's impact around the ground - and it would be have been nice if we were able to double team Marshall with Pitto and De Koning.

Our smaller forward line forced a change to our inside 50s and there weren't many long bombs ... that Kemp didn't mark  :)

The St Kilda brainstrust will be studying footage of our game to find a way to stop Kemp.  He is just that bit different to most key forwards in that he plays like a defender, is good beneath his knees and is a very good mark.  I'd bring Lemmey in this week to give them someone else to worry about.

I expect that they will also be concerned about Cripps, Hewett, Weitering, Newman, Acres, Hollands X 2, Walsh and Owies. 

Bailey Williams has rucked for his entire AFL career, is the same size as Tom De Koning and is just a shade smaller than Pitto.  He is ranked one spot behind De Koning for hitouts this season.  He was ranked 11th in the competition for hitouts last season, one place ahead of Marshall and several ahead of Gawn, Cameron, Xerri and Pitto.  I doubt whether De Koning could have done any better than Pitto against Williams and probably would have conceded more hitouts.  Marshall is a very polished ruckman but it will be a tight contest if Pitto can reproduce the form he showed in Perth.

West Coast won the hitouts but we dominated the clearances.  Geelong smashed St Kilda in hitouts but only just won the clearances, in part because Marshall was more focused on clearances than hitouts.  Our midfield should dominate, even if Marshall gets on top of Pitto in ruck contests.  Pitto's main challenge will be negating Marshall's impact around the ground - and it would be have been nice if we were able to double team Marshall with Pitto and De Koning.

Pitto had 9 HTA
Williams x2 combined for 11, but had an extra 28 ruck contests between them to get those extra 2.

Pitto had 8 clearances himself, only outdone by Cripps (10) who ironically, got himself a few extra by grabbing it out of the ruck!
Williams x2 only managed 3 between them, again with 28 extra ruck contests.

Nobody doubts TDK athletic ability, especially compared to Pitto.
However, if you look at the numbers, the point about TDK offering more on the ground is a bit of a myth as Pitto has him (and almost all rucks) covered for clearances.

Please, just stop.

Dare I say the 'F' word.........  Fantasia.

Charlie, Harry, Saad, Martin will be a test.

My main fear with bringing in Lemmey is that the Hail Mary bomb will return and I don’t think that will be fair on Lemmey.
If we continue to lower our eyes and honour leads, short and long then we can get the win.

Go with Lemmey.

Charlie, Harry, Saad, Martin will be a test.

Stand corrected on Bailey Williams height...thought he was only 6'3 then realised I was quoting the Bulldogs player with same name....🤭
I felt sure he played as forward as a U18 player with Dandenong and was asked to ruck when Nicnat got long term injured and they had no other options?

With the unpredictability, do we throw Lemmey into the mix or go small again?

I hope being an emergency is as close as Lemmey gets to playing AFL this season - I haven't yet seen enough from him.

Talk around town that Gov will miss with a hammy.

If McGovern misses, then Kemp's stint as a forward will be short-lived for now. They'll probably pick Marchbank. :))

So who would Lemmey replace? Martin? Small Durds? Nuh. Fantasia (if fit) & Moir are obvious replacements for Martin/Durds. Billy Wilson the sub.

Good Lord no!

They will have to pick Marchback. No alot of choices. No one is moving Kemp.

I'd go with Akuei before I looked Marchbank, the latter is slow and injury prone. You never some athletic youthful exuberance could be just the ticket, we may unearth our own version Mac Andrew.

Like any team in their position, St Kilda will have a crack until it all starts getting a bit hard and they start thinking about Mad Monday and overseas trips....... half way through the 3rd quarter. Kill their interest to compete early on.

They didn't do that to the Pussies last week!  Lyon and SOS would take great satisfaction in knocking us out of the eight, and the Aints will be fired up.

And I thought I was an optimist.

Like any team in their position, St Kilda will have a crack until it all starts getting a bit hard and they start thinking about Mad Monday and overseas trips....... half way through the 3rd quarter. Kill their interest to compete early on.

What is Marchbank going to give you? He is slower than treacle, panics under pressure, is a terrible kick. Sadly, IMO, his career at AFL level is finished. I've seen enough.

What is Marchbank going to give you? He is slower than treacle, panics under pressure, is a terrible kick. Sadly, IMO, his career at AFL level is finished. I've seen enough.

He does have two working arms and legs.  That's a pretty good start at Ikon Park this week.......

We will pick Marchbank for sure if McGovern is out and then we will put him on Membrey to complete the torture.
That's just the crazy stuff we do to increase the difficulty factor....

He does have two working arms and legs.  That's a pretty good start at Ikon Park this week.......

You won't want to hear or read what Daniel Hoyne has to say this week about us and StK.

I haven't seen it but I imagine Hoyne is using historical data to predict an outcome.  He should realise that matches yet to be played are completely independent from what has happened in the past and virtually any result is possible in a game of footy.  Personnel, preparation and mindset will determine the outcome.

I haven't seen it but I imagine Hoyne is using historical data to predict an outcome.  He should realise that matches yet to be played are completely independent from what has happened in the past and virtually any result is possible in a game of footy.  Personnel, preparation and mindset will determine the outcome.

Agreed, the stats they often present are almost the numerical representation of the gambler's fallacy.

Personally, this week is the opportunity for our MC to shine, they'll be more important than the cattle that take the park!

Its not stats, its game style, specific player form and player impact.
They also pointed out on The Front Bar last night that we haven't won a last round match since 2013. Voss and boys needs to fix that this weekend.

the statistic that shows we haven't won this match is flawed.

I.e.  in 2013 we needed that win to finish 9th against Port Adelaide and take that finals spot. 

In most years after 2013 the queue was in the rack.  Last year that cost us nothing against gws and we fielded a second string line up.  In my recent memory 2022 was the first year we needed to win in round 23 to make finals, and we fell short but missed on percentage against a team that won a flag a year later.

Every other year is effectively irrelevant since 2013.

the aints have a horrible knack of beating us when it matters, in recent time (ie 20-odd years)

i have visions of a quick kick out of a pack, from some bloke i have never heard of, at the 25min mark of the last quarter (all while crippa is being held by both arms and both legs, by steele), sending us on our way out of the finals

The Saints would be completely justified in thinking they can win. Won 4 of the last 5. They play Marvel very well. Our lineup of course is heavily depleted. Very much a 50/50 game IMO.

Is there a link to this Hoyne stuff?

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2024/08/22/the-numbers-that-back-up-champion-data-analysts-bold-2024-premiership-tip/

5 minutes in the they speak about power forwards in finals and he brings up his opinion on Harry.

If you jump to the 13 minute mark he talks about StKilda and how they're going to be a problem for us.

What would be impressive is if one of the nerds come out before the game and predicted something very specific, like which players will star or flop on the day, and how a club will finish up ahead or behind on various team stats!

Main training session is tomorrow with fitness tests so final team will be in 5pm tomorrow.

Curnow and Saad named in the side, so will play if fit.

Fantasia named on the extended bench, so even if fit is not guaranteed a game.
Williams is named on the ground., durdin named on the bench. McGovern named on the ground. Questions over all 3.

Moir, Fantasia, Durdin (and Kennedy), all small forwards, all on the bench. Owies, Motlop, Williams (and E. Hollands) all named on the ground in the forward line.
Not sure what the record is for small forwards, but we might break it this week.

Curnow and Saad named in the side, so will play if fit.

Fantasia named on the extended bench, so even if fit is not guaranteed a game.
Williams is named on the ground., durdin named on the bench. McGovern named on the ground. Questions over all 3.

Moir, Fantasia, Durdin (and Kennedy), all small forwards, all on the bench. Owies, Motlop, Williams (and E. Hollands) all named on the ground in the forward line.
Not sure what the record is for small forwards, but we might break it this week.

I'm listening to that SEN podcast now - interesting to hear Hoyne say McKay to CHB.

Last week we had unpredictabilty, 100% commitment and focus and finally, some pace.  Let's not piss those hard won advantages away with craptastic MC decisions.

No unfit players
No passengers

Reward the blokes who got it done, don't go with "names".  Fantasia hasnt done it all year, why go back to that well now?  Heck, I'd rather play a kid with one arm in that role from what I saw last week (admitting that could be a massive risk and over in the first minute).

Our line-up:
B:  [33] Lewis Young  [23] Jacob Weitering  [2] Lachlan Cowan
HB:  [42] Adam Saad  [11] Mitch McGovern  [24] Nic Newman
C: [4] Oliver Hollands  [9] Patrick Cripps  [13] Blake Acres
HF:  [6] Zac Williams  [17] Brodie Kemp  [20] Elijah Hollands
F:  [44] Matthew Owies  [30] Charlie Curnow  [3] Jesse Motlop
R:  [27] Marc Pittonet  [18] Sam Walsh  [29] George Hewett
Int:  [39] Alex Cincotta  [7] Matthew Kennedy  [16] Jack Carroll  [19] Corey Durdin  [36] Cooper Lord  [43] Ashton Moir  [14] Orazio Fantasia  [25] Jaxon Binns

I look at our line-up and I wonder just how fictional it is. How many do we NOT have under an injury cloud?

Its not stats, its game style, specific player form and player impact.
They also pointed out on The Front Bar last night that we haven't won a last round match since 2013. Voss and boys needs to fix that this weekend.

I look at last weeks makeshift fwd line who played like rabid dogs and I cant help but think that this weeks fwd line is going back to what hasn't worked for the previous 6 weeks. I hope and pray I'm wrong because the thought of StK ending our season makes me feel physically ill.

Yes, hoping we just don't go target a half fit Charlie every entry.

Some of the Indians stepped up with some of our Chiefs missing, need them to do it again. Good wins are the ones where you get the collective contributing rather than a few individual brilliant players carrying the load and I'm hoping we see that vs the Saints and the likes of Cripps don't have to be BOG.

I look at last weeks makeshift fwd line who played like rabid dogs and I cant help but think that this weeks fwd line is going back to what hasn't worked for the previous 6 weeks. I hope and pray I'm wrong because the thought of StK ending our season makes me feel physically ill.

I think Moir is a real wildcard.  Fantasia is run and done, why should he get a run ahead of a fizzed up kid?  Reap the whirlwind.

There's a subset of posters on here, whose seemingly inexhaustible fondness for kids who have shown little, and subpar VFL players, never ceases to amaze me. This is absolutely the wrong game to be taking risks. Too many kids end up placing pressure on the senior guys. We need experienced players with years in the system to minimize the risks.

Talk around in a few places at the moment that Charlie won't play.
Wait for the confirmation though.

David Zita

@DavidZita1
Michael Voss confirms Charlie Curnow won’t play this week. Confident he’ll be available for a first final if they make it.
@FOXFOOTY

wce were in bali already so no big deal last week ,but this week pressure and tackles all over ground we cant let saints gett there running game started

Thats the problem, stopping their run.

For the record Fantasia hasn't played since round 17 and has had no part in our poor form of late.

I'm listening to that SEN podcast now - interesting to hear Hoyne say McKay to CHB.

The classic difference between what is causation and what is correlation.

You could say over that same time you could say we almost always do the opposite of what the bookies want.
Perhaps we are doing a '95.

or perhaps its simply coincidence in both cases.

I watch the Saints up close every 2-3 weeks and if we can't beat them then we don't deserve to play finals.
They are not efficient, over use the ball, and their defense is very loose.
Stop Marshall and they will struggle everywhere else...I'm expecting to win after they initially stifle us with the Lyon game plan but can't sustain it for 4 quarters...

Finally got around to listening to it.

Nobody can see an issue with McKay having the turning circle of a truck?
Would be lost way too easily if he was playing a lockdown defender.

However, if he plays as a ruck, while he is rucking, he could park himself across CHB as a loose man an be effective.
....but im not allowed to talk about non-rucks rucking.

100% EB, problem is they have been a bogey side for us in the past and they have the tools to beat us (especially given how depleted we are). As you say, its a "final", if we cant beat the team that's placed 13th, we dont deserve a finals birth.

....but im not allowed to talk about non-rucks rucking.

I said Fantasia has nothing to with our recent form.

I was born, but i wasn't born yesterday.

....i am familiar with sarcasm too......and your references to the same 'logic' previously.

Officially the only change from last weeks team is....
Saad is in. (for now) for Williams who didn't get up from last week.

Gov is picked (for now)
Durdin is picked (for now) despite Vossy basically ruling him out last week.
Charlie didn't come up despite being named.

Binns, Moir, Lord, Carroll and McGovern currently named on the bench.

Fantasia, Lemmey, Wilson the 3 emergencies


I suspect McGovern won't get up
I suspect Durdin may not get up.
So perhaps another debutant this week as a result.

Actually I just saw the ladder, Melbourne are currently 12th and StK are 13th. Will StK "risk" moving up the down the draft order by beating us and swapping ladder positions with Melbourne?

Actually I just saw the ladder, Melbourne are currently 12th and StK are 13th. Will StK "risk" moving up the down the draft order by beating us and swapping ladder positions with Melbourne?

Reckon SOS and Ross Lyon would love to be the team that messed up our finals chances..

Everytime I see footage of JSoS's 100th game I cringe, it's awful.  Bet the missus had some choice words in the car going home.

There's at least two accounts for why SOS wasn't in the rooms after Jack's 100th : one, told by Ben Silvagni, that SOS was too tired and waiting in the car, sounds pretty weak and unconvincing to me. The other, that SOS' presence would distract from Jack's achievement, does IMO, at least sound plausible. Steve is the undisputed star and star attraction of that family, and that's never going to change.

Contrast the reaction from SOS to any of SoJ's game day achievements, with the reaction of Peter Daicos celebrating the moments of Josh or Nick, it's telling! :o

Yes, no doubt it's possible, but I think we also need to consider that they are pretty different personalities.

SOS doesn't even offer a feeble clap of the hands! :o

There's at least two accounts for why SOS wasn't in the rooms after Jack's 100th : one, told by Ben Silvagni, that SOS was too tired and waiting in the car, sounds pretty weak and unconvincing to me. The other, that SOS' presence would distract from Jack's achievement, does IMO, at least sound plausible. Steve is the undisputed star and star attraction of that family, and that's never going to change.

I'm also guessing SOS has plenty on his plate to worry about other than today's result.

There’s Jack’s version too, and it doesn’t portray SOS in a glowing light.  In case you missed it, it was along the lines, “My old man wouldn’t come to my 100th presentation because the club sacked him.”

No, I wasn't aware of Jack's version. Poor if true.

As optimistic as I usually am, that optimism has deserted me for tomorrow's game. In fact my concern is that they'll rag-doll us. I pray to all the gods that I am wrong. For us to win tomorrow we'll need an amazing and enormous spirit and ruthlessness to get on top of the Aints, then stay there. Not something we've seen a lot of against a strong defensive side in good form.

Excitement or disappointment over a result is directly related to our expectations.

Prepare for the worst,  and hope for the best...we might be pleasantly surprised.

We will try, but the problem is our form over the last 7-8 weeks has been very ordinary. Whilst the performance last week was admirable, it was against West Coast who Geelong are currently rogering by 84 pts. StK whilst not world beaters are a different proposition and in another league compared to WC. We are in this position because of our own fault so the consequences are the consequences. Our second half of this year has been played nothing like the second half of last year, in fact the complete opposite which is a real shame. Two steps fwd one step back is how I view 2023 - 2024.

One thing I would do this week is play Crippa out of the goal square at FF, lets see how the Saints deal with that.

Don't mind the idea of resting him at FF swapping with Kennedy but we need him to be prominent in the middle if we are to get on top.  Maybe start him in the square just to stop the tag from the outset.  My concern is that the mids and half forwards might just target Crippa all the time a la the way they can do with Charlie and allow the intercepting defenders to have a party.

Cripps needs to be BOG or close to it for us to win, we need to dominate the midfield/clearances/stoppages not just break even...

If Cripps plays at FF who going to get it to him?

I'm not suggesting that Cripps should play at FF but he should go forward like he did last game.

While Cripps was the standout with a dozen score involvements, we had seven players with eight or more score involvements.  We also had 16 players with two or more inside 50s.

The Saints are missing King and Caminiti from their forward line, although the latter played in defence in his last games.  They will be relying on Membrey to score their goals and we should have him well covered.  I can't really see a match up for Lewis Young unless he takes Sharman, and Marshall if he goes forward.

The Saints defence will have a little height advantage over our forwards and Cripps spending time forward will negate that.  I suspect that they will struggle with our unconventional forward set up and new found pinpoint passing inside 50.  A lot will depend on Kemp straight lining the ball and plucking a few pack marks.

Forget about the Saints win over the Cats; that was an aberration.  Their shellackings by Brisbane and Adelaide are more reliable indicators of where they're at as a footy team.

Memberey has historically been a bad match up for Weitering.

Memberey has historically been a bad match up for Weitering.

I'd look at putting Cincotta on him. Basically the same height. We know Cincotta can wear players like a glove.

Allow Weitering and Young to play loose(r) on their sub-par opponents and zone off and help out cincotta

I'd have Cincotta on Sinclair and reduce the supply. Membrey is a good contested  mark, that's not Cincotta's strong area IMHO. Saints runners in Hill, Wanganeen Milera, Wilson, and Sinclair are players I would be spending time on.
Young playing loose would worry me, Saints don't have a player for him to match up on. Owens, Sharman, Higgins and Butler know where the goals are too and would all be too mobile for Young Imho.

I'd have Cincotta on Sinclair and reduce the supply. Membrey is a good contested  mark, that's not Cincotta's strong area IMHO. Saints runners in Hill, Wanganeen Milera, Wilson, and Sinclair are players I would be spending time on.
Young playing loose would worry me, Saints don't have a player for him to match up on. Owens, Sharman, Higgins and Butler know where the goals are too and would all be too mobile for Young Imho.

Rather than contested marks, Membrey has the knack of losing his defender and marking unopposed.  Stopping that is a team defence concern.

If we can get our team defence right, Young focuses on intercept marks and/or killing the ball in contested marking situations.  Weitering then gets to concentrate on organising the defence and setting up our transition.

Our forward line, sans Charlie and Harry, is still far more potent than St Kilda’s.

Hill is a spent force but we do need to curtail Wanganeen-Milera’s run out of defence.  The best way to do that is to make sure he’s got a genuine forward threat to worry about and Elijah Hollands can do that in spades.  And that should be the key to the game; despite missing Charlie, Harry, Tom, Fog, et al, our 23 is better than their 23 … provided that we play to our potential.

Apparently Gov out

We were sitting in 2nd spot for major chunk  of the season and injuries or not we still should be able to take care of business and book our spot in the finals against a team that were out of contention weeks ago. King usually troubles Weiters so happy he is out.

Win and we deserve our spot - lose to this mob even with a few important blokes missing means we are still not ready to be serious challenger.

I don’t want to make finals by losing and port winning.

Dont want to fall in and get hammered out in the first week of finals either..

As i said i only want to make it if we win but for those out there that dont care how we make it GWS losing against dogs means port now only have to avoid a thrashing to hold 2nd spot and a home final.

If GWS win, Port must win to take back 2nd spot so that is a better situation for us.

As predicted,

McGovern out
Fantasia In

Moir Sub

HTF does that fraud get a game ahead of Moir. 1 he is useless and 2 good chance he will be subbed before half time with a calf.
Joke.

Stay relaxed and leave yourself open to being surprised, as much as it might be doom it's also an opportunity.

If we do happen to limp into the finals, I hope we continue to play the kids instead of breaking a bunch of underdone superstars, and it might tell us a bit about what we have to work with for next season!

you might want to check membreys record against us.  He'll likely kick minimum 2 maximum 5 goals against us. 

He's one of those players who just finds a way to score against us.

A good mindset to take

However, unless Fantasia is the worlds greatest decoy, I simply don’t get his selection