Social Club => Blah-Blah Bar => Topic started by: DJC on December 09, 2024, 03:03:10 pm
Title: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 09, 2024, 03:03:10 pm
The murderous regime of Bashar al-Assad has come to an end and the tyrant has flown to exile in Russia. The question is whether what follows Assad will be better or worse.
Of course, the Americans and Israelis took the opportunity to bomb the crepe out of ISIS and munitions plants.
It is a huge setback for Putin with Russia losing its foothold and influence in the Middle East.
It is also another blow to the reputation of the Russian military. In the absence of instructions from Moscow, the various units chose to do nothing and all bases are now cut off. Showing initiative isn’t a thing in the Russian armed forces.
Expatriate Syrians here are overjoyed but I suspect that there will be a lot of hardship and unrest to come.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Lods on December 09, 2024, 03:28:51 pm
It'll probably now be the case that several groups involved in the overthrow will have a battle amongst themselves for supremacy. The chances of a tolerant, democratic government would have to be very little low.
Sometimes it just might be better the Devil than than the devils you don't really have a handle on. One of the groups involved is apparently Kurdish...and what that means for relations with Turkiye will be interesting.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: crashlander on December 09, 2024, 04:27:23 pm
I'm not u happy seeing the back of the Assad regime, but my thoughts lead to what comes next? Successor regimes to those regimes toppled by violence often end up being very similar to the regimes they've just toppled.
I was happy to see the back of the Sadaam Hussain, but what has followed in Iraq is unstable and fractious. I'm not sure life there is any better now than it was then.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: cookie2 on December 09, 2024, 04:41:55 pm
I am very fearful for the future of the Syrian people who now have to face life under HTS, an Al Qaida derived jihadist group.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 09, 2024, 05:08:46 pm
Most countries that had an Arab Spring are still suffering from an extended Arab Winter ...
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Professer E on December 09, 2024, 07:14:42 pm
If any country ever needed a UN mandate/protectorate to get back on its feet, Syria would be it.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Thryleon on December 10, 2024, 10:28:44 am
Id be careful about celebrating too much here.
How we view the regime is secondary to it being toppled IMHO. Its great for the Syrian people, but a power vaccuum on the back of what has been happening geo politically just leads to an additional theatre of war, and more people getting involved.
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 10, 2024, 11:52:11 am
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
The crooks are already there just waiting for the opportunity, it might take some time but things won't get better if the criminals aren't suppressed. Look at Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Egypt, those regions are being over-run with opportunistic gangsters, some of them funded by foreign actors.
International forces are now hobbled by do-gooders, completely toothless, in the past the international forces could go in as a peacekeeping / police action to keep the criminals at bay, but the global left has made that job impossible.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 10, 2024, 01:23:41 pm
How we view the regime is secondary to it being toppled IMHO. Its great for the Syrian people, but a power vaccuum on the back of what has been happening geo politically just leads to an additional theatre of war, and more people getting involved.
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
Syria has been a theatre of war involving the USA, Russia, Türkiye, Iran, Israel and various opposition groups, some of whom are declared terrorist organisations, since the Arab Spring began over a decade ago. There has been a power vacuum there since Assad had to focus his military and resources, and those of his allies, on his opposition.
The positive from Assad's demise is that some of the antagonists will no longer have a role. The negative, apart from Assad flying off with $2B, is the likelihood of a chaotic Arab Winter in Syria for many years to come.
The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 10, 2024, 01:47:41 pm
The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
I doubt the West made much difference.
In my experience the cultural tension in that region is endemic, it has been for much of recorded history and long before Britain or France ever got involved. However, I would agree we can probably blame Britain and France for leveraging those differences for gain.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 10, 2024, 01:57:42 pm
I expect this region to blow up significantly now.
The crooks are already there just waiting for the opportunity, it might take some time but things won't get better if the criminals aren't suppressed. Look at Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Afghanistan, Egypt, those regions are being over-run with opportunistic gangsters, some of them funded by foreign actors.
International forces are now hobbled by do-gooders, completely toothless, in the past the international forces could go in as a peacekeeping / police action to keep the criminals at bay, but the global left has made that job impossible.
But I thought that you were of the loony left LP 🤣
With very few exceptions, peacekeeping operations, whether under UN auspices or not, have relied on the goodwill and tolerance of the protagonists rather than the might of the peacekeepers. And that’s regardless of the colour of governments.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 10, 2024, 02:09:12 pm
The West - Britain and France in particular - did a great job of carving up the Middle East into nations with no coherent, shared culture or purpose and that have been held together by dictators and ruling elites.
I doubt the West made much difference.
In my experience the cultural tension in that region is endemic, it has been for much of recorded history and long before Britain or France ever got involved. However, I would agree we can probably blame Britain and France for leveraging those differences for gain.
Who drew the national boundaries and anointed the ruling families after WW1, established Israel after WW2, and invaded Egypt after Nasser nationalised the Suez Canal?
You need to watch Lawrence of Arabia again 🙂
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 10, 2024, 03:11:48 pm
Regardless of the commercial divisions, the tribal factions in that region have existed long before the British or French passed through the region.
I'm not denying that colonialists had an influence, but implying they are the authors is a step too far, murder and corruption existed long before Britain or France.
Maybe go a bit further back than the Hollywood history of the Middle East, perhaps ask Lord Byron?
PS: I studied the regions history off the back of Pam's tattoo, or was it off Pam's back tattoo! ;)
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Thryleon on December 11, 2024, 08:13:36 am
Wait, I'm confused. The generational Arab spring brought in the nepotism that results in the ruling class and the subsequent Arab spring had nothing to do with the west and the west deposed it even though they were responsible for dividing up Arabia and deposing the Arab council?
In fairness none of us really know a lot about its history because of ottoman rule, but when push comes to shove, the west involved itself for its own interests and still does so today. This isn't a good will mission to free the people. No one goes to war simply as a good Samaritan and it's more cold war crap and not much else.
This time of year all you get is sold a bunch of crap. Islamic state, Libya, Afghanistan. The motivation behind all of it is a bit of a mystery but it smells to me like ensuring your opposition in the region doesn't gather enough power to challenge you and not much else and the major cost is born by the citizens that live there or at least used to.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: DJC on December 11, 2024, 09:04:42 am
Regardless of the commercial divisions, the tribal factions in that region have existed long before the British or French passed through the region.
I'm not denying that colonialists had an influence, but implying they are the authors is a step too far, murder and corruption existed long before Britain or France.
Maybe go a bit further back than the Hollywood history of the Middle East, perhaps ask Lord Byron?
PS: I studied the regions history off the back of Pam's tattoo, or was it off Pam's back tattoo! ;)
The tribalism and religious, ethnic and cultural diversity of the Middle East are key factors that were ignored by the French and British when they divided up the Ottoman Caliphate.
Similarly, the creation of Israel ignored centuries of coexistence of Arabs, Christians and Jews in Palestine.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 11, 2024, 09:38:41 am
Similarly, the creation of Israel ignored centuries of coexistence of Arabs, Christians and Jews in Palestine.
It was coexistence but the term coexistence doesn't imply peaceful, it was much closer to murderous.
It's a bit arbitrary to look at the Middle East and blame it's problems on colonialism.
A great example is the destruction of various cultural heritage sites, this is a direct attack by a tribe on sites connected to a history before colonialism even existed.
I think it's too easy for people to find a correlation and point a finger at one cause for all the world's problems, at the moment it seems to be colonialism is the flavour of the month.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Lods on December 11, 2024, 10:24:42 am
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 11, 2024, 10:56:11 am
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
You get why Israel do this stuff, if that weaponry falls into the hands of the rebels its probably going to end up being used against them. Surviving as a Jewish state in the middle east means being a strong Military power and looking after your interests when you can. They wont be playing by the rules or taking too many prisoners but you know what you are getting yourself into if you mess with them and why these other surrounding countries feck with them and then complain later about the repercussions always mystifies me.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Gointocarlton on December 11, 2024, 12:57:25 pm
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
You get why Israel do this stuff, if that weaponry falls into the hands of the rebels its probably going to end up being used against them. Surviving as a Jewish state in the middle east means being a strong Military power and looking after your interests when you can. They wont be playing by the rules or taking too many prisoners but you know what you are getting yourself into if you mess with them and why these other surrounding countries feck with them and then complain later about the repercussions always mystifies me.
As our CMFEU comrades say, "touch one touch all" and where coming for all.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 11, 2024, 02:19:35 pm
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
So were the accusations of the last few days the early stages of an excuse?
Even potentially worse, it's not beyond possibility that the actual fire in Melbourne was a False Flag operation, designed to incite support for further bombing of opponents. History is littered with such events.
Unfortunately, Albo is looking like a pawn(schlep), someone left to carry the blame!
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Thryleon on December 11, 2024, 03:01:03 pm
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
You get why Israel do this stuff, if that weaponry falls into the hands of the rebels its probably going to end up being used against them. Surviving as a Jewish state in the middle east means being a strong Military power and looking after your interests when you can. They wont be playing by the rules or taking too many prisoners but you know what you are getting yourself into if you mess with them and why these other surrounding countries feck with them and then complain later about the repercussions always mystifies me.
You could apply that to the middle east in general. They only crack it about Israel, because they got a massive leg up, got some prime lands handed to them, and know that irrespective of how that plays out, Israel have the mighty US behind them, because thats how they keep their foothold their.
They also have a proxy in Turkey, so either way, the USA is happy maintaining the status quo, and you can see it in the language used to describe the same action. Israel protect their citizens, the rest are terrorists. Last I checked Terror can be waged by both sides of the fence, with the only difference being the identity of those being terrorised.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 11, 2024, 03:21:19 pm
You get why Israel do this stuff, if that weaponry falls into the hands of the rebels its probably going to end up being used against them. Surviving as a Jewish state in the middle east means being a strong Military power and looking after your interests when you can. They wont be playing by the rules or taking too many prisoners but you know what you are getting yourself into if you mess with them and why these other surrounding countries feck with them and then complain later about the repercussions always mystifies me.
You could apply that to the middle east in general. They only crack it about Israel, because they got a massive leg up, got some prime lands handed to them, and know that irrespective of how that plays out, Israel have the mighty US behind them, because thats how they keep their foothold their.
They also have a proxy in Turkey, so either way, the USA is happy maintaining the status quo, and you can see it in the language used to describe the same action. Israel protect their citizens, the rest are terrorists. Last I checked Terror can be waged by both sides of the fence, with the only difference being the identity of those being terrorised.
No doubt the USA are happy to support Israel and protect their interests ie Oil and strategic areas in the region and they wrongly also turn a blind eye when Israel go too far and decide to annihilate everything in their path as part of their revenge agendas. Turkey are happy to sit on the fence and be Switzerland, happy to be a NATO country but equally happy to have good relations with Russia, the latter consider all NATO countries as non friendly but not Turkey even though Turkey is a lynch pin country for the USA and NATO in that part of the world. Its a funny setup in the middle east but as you say its about the status quo and principles/decency dont count for much which either side/s you are on...
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: cookie2 on December 11, 2024, 03:42:56 pm
You could apply that to the middle east in general. They only crack it about Israel, because they got a massive leg up, got some prime lands handed to them, and know that irrespective of how that plays out, Israel have the mighty US behind them, because thats how they keep their foothold their.
They also have a proxy in Turkey, so either way, the USA is happy maintaining the status quo, and you can see it in the language used to describe the same action. Israel protect their citizens, the rest are terrorists. Last I checked Terror can be waged by both sides of the fence, with the only difference being the identity of those being terrorised.
No doubt the USA are happy to support Israel and protect their interests ie Oil and strategic areas in the region and they wrongly also turn a blind eye when Israel go too far and decide to annihilate everything in their path as part of their revenge agendas. Turkey are happy to sit on the fence and be Switzerland, happy to be a NATO country but equally happy to have good relations with Russia, the latter consider all NATO countries as non friendly but not Turkey even though Turkey is a lynch pin country for the USA and NATO in that part of the world. Its a funny setup in the middle east but as you say its about the status quo and principles/decency dont count for much which either side/s you are on...
I believe Erdogan has his eyes on taking over Aleppo which was once a part of Turkey.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: LP on December 11, 2024, 03:44:21 pm
It's the same names you hear, over and over and over again!
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Lods on December 11, 2024, 03:46:57 pm
Never ones to miss an opportunity, with the Syrian armed forces in disarray Israel is bombing the crap out of Syrian military facilities.
So were the accusations of the last few days the early stages of an excuse?
Even potentially worse, it's not beyond possibility that the actual fire in Melbourne was a False Flag operation, designed to incite support for further bombing of opponents. History is littered with such events.
Unfortunately, Albo is looking like a pawn(schlep), someone left to carry the blame!
I don't think it's any more sinister than what EB described a few posts above. Syria has been a concern for Israel. The future of Syria is uncertain. Weapons, ships and aircraft could fall to a group that could pose a greater threat to Israel than the deposed regime. So they've taken the opportunity to degrade that potential by as much as possible while Syria is still sorting itself out.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: Thryleon on December 11, 2024, 05:54:36 pm
No doubt the USA are happy to support Israel and protect their interests ie Oil and strategic areas in the region and they wrongly also turn a blind eye when Israel go too far and decide to annihilate everything in their path as part of their revenge agendas. Turkey are happy to sit on the fence and be Switzerland, happy to be a NATO country but equally happy to have good relations with Russia, the latter consider all NATO countries as non friendly but not Turkey even though Turkey is a lynch pin country for the USA and NATO in that part of the world. Its a funny setup in the middle east but as you say its about the status quo and principles/decency dont count for much which either side/s you are on...
I believe Erdogan has his eyes on taking over Aleppo which was once a part of Turkey.
If he had his way, his name would be Grand sultan Erdogan, and it would be the Ottoman Empire all over again.
Alleppo was technically never part of Turkey as Turkey is what remains of the Ottoman Empire. A melting pot nation with a mixed identity, that technically is far West of its roots.
Title: Re: Syria
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 11, 2024, 06:27:13 pm
No doubt the USA are happy to support Israel and protect their interests ie Oil and strategic areas in the region and they wrongly also turn a blind eye when Israel go too far and decide to annihilate everything in their path as part of their revenge agendas. Turkey are happy to sit on the fence and be Switzerland, happy to be a NATO country but equally happy to have good relations with Russia, the latter consider all NATO countries as non friendly but not Turkey even though Turkey is a lynch pin country for the USA and NATO in that part of the world. Its a funny setup in the middle east but as you say its about the status quo and principles/decency dont count for much which either side/s you are on...
I believe Erdogan has his eyes on taking over Aleppo which was once a part of Turkey.
Erdogan is an opportunist and Turkey's political clout has improved with the Syrian Govt falling, seems to have endeared himself to a lot of different countries and political groups apart from Israel in recent times and it will be interesting to see how the Trump administration handle him and whether or not they allow him to continue to try and be peacemaker with Russia/Ukraine etc and have a say in Syrian affairs or they clamp down on him and tell him who the boss is.