Social Club => Blah-Blah Bar => Topic started by: Thryleon on June 18, 2025, 09:23:58 am
Title: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 18, 2025, 09:23:58 am
I thought id start this thread because this topic isnt being discussed anywhere else and it figured a title like this provides the requisite satire to not take life too seriously in what is a very serious situation.
I found the strikes against Iran eyebrow raising.
The whole nuclear rationale for attacking another nation to me to be an excuse.
It reminds me of Saddam Hussein, Iraq and the weapons of mass destruction that to my best knowledge, never turned up.
Israel are feeling the backlash of this. Deservedly so. No sympathy for an aggressor in war. They did what their intel told them to I suppose.
The more recent comparison we have is Ukraine and Russia. These conflicts have the capability of plunging us into world war 3. We are rather fortunate here in Australia. We dont have to worry too much about this stuff as the only nation likely to invade us has largely achieved it through immigration and real estate anyway so they won't be coming for us any time soon.
Give us your thoughts. Im not sure Israel has garnered much sympathy out of this. Is it a continuation of the stoush with palestine where Iran was seen to be an enabler?
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: madbluboy on June 18, 2025, 09:42:13 am
Didn't Iran launch hundreds of drones at them last year?
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on June 18, 2025, 10:08:31 am
A lot of these situations are complicated for us by the fact that we, at the 'common people' level, don't have access to intelligence and information available to the 'higher ups' Actions that are taken might seem wrong, barbaric even.
So any judgement we make is made at a very general level, often based on our own knowledge, values and background. What we sometimes don't appreciate is the 'walk a mile in my shoes' aspect of some of these conflicts. Put ourselves in the place of - -the Palestinian in Gaza or the West Bank who live in fear of what the Israelis might do next in terms of relocation for settlement...or worse, -the Israeli with some neighbours who don't believe in their right to exist and are constantly calling for that nation's destruction. -the Russian speaking Ukranian, with for all intents and purposes a Russian identity, and a wish to belong to that country who lives on or near the border. The Russian invasion would have seemed more like a liberation.
In any of those situations...and there are many more, our perspectives on right or wrong would change and actions we regard as wrong or barbaric would seem entirely justified if we actually lived those scenarios. They're the kind of situations we can't appreciate. We are in some repects protected by our isolation. Our foes aren't right next door, although that might not always be the case with a nation of 300 million just to our North -West Our alliances also put us in the firing line to some extent.
The Israelis are engaged at the moment on a bit of a mission to degrade all opposition...Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and now Iran. They don't do things by halves. They learned that from the 'very best' last century. Would these attacks have happened now if it wasn't for the events of October 7th. How many lives lost can be traced back to that event. Gaza may not have been a paradise for the people living there, with the constant threat of their Israeli neighbours...but it almost certainly wouldn't be the hell it's become. You have to wonder what the thinking was...did they expect neighbouring Arab countries to rise up in support. They certainly would have had no doubts about the 'shock and awe' Israeli reponse.
The Israeli's are no doubt hoping that once they're finished any threats will have largely been eliminated. Unfortunately, while the more apparent, obvious threats may be downgraded they will have spawned extra generations of hatred, who often resort to a more subtle but equally deadly and destructive forms of revenge.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: crashlander on June 18, 2025, 10:12:02 am
Iran and Israel have been fighting proxy wars for years; Iran backs almost anyone who hates Israel. Hammas, Hezbollah, the Houtis is Yemen, just to name a few. Being a theocracy, Iran does things no matter what their people may want.
That said, I wish Israel hadn't struck first. :(
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 18, 2025, 01:09:22 pm
This is about wealth, in the form of oil, gas, real-estate, etc., etc..
There is nobody from either side with the right to the high moral ground in this dispute, they are all gutter crawling.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on June 18, 2025, 01:15:31 pm
This is about wealth, in the form of oil, gas, real-estate, etc., etc..
There is nobody from either side with the right to the high moral ground in this dispute, they are all gutter crawling.
Yes, and it's the ordinary citizens on both sides who are bearing the brunt of the politicians' war.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Professer E on June 18, 2025, 01:18:16 pm
The actions of Israeli settlers have been particularly repulsive, certain aspects clearly underscore that this conflict is the usual "we want something that the other mob have, so we're gonna take it". Usual negative human actions- greed, coveting fhat of others etc
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 18, 2025, 01:22:26 pm
Iran and Israel have been fighting proxy wars for years; Iran backs almost anyone who hates Israel. Hammas, Hezbollah, the Houtis is Yemen, just to name a few. Being a theocracy, Iran does things no matter what their people may want.
That said, I wish Israel hadn't struck first. :(
Israel had no choice imo, when your enemies are building their nuclear capability to intimidate you it's better to engage in warfare that's conventional than wait for a nutcase on the other side to test out their fresh nuclear toys.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 18, 2025, 01:40:03 pm
Feel free to offer feedback about the thread title too!
https://youtu.be/iIpfWORQWhU?si=R8YYsewd77ZVhw6n
:D
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on June 18, 2025, 02:01:02 pm
Tulsi Gabbard, US Director of National Intelligence, told Congress in March that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
After the Iraq WMD fiasco, US intelligence pronouncements have to be treated cautiously but I suspect that Gabbard has a better handle on things than Taco. The latter seems to be more concerned about keeping in lockstep with Bibi than following authoritative advice and/or trying to end the conflict.
And Thry, I'd be running too if I came up with such a cheesy thread title ... but you did bring a smile to my dial :D
Keep up the good work!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 18, 2025, 02:07:54 pm
Now this is something that ive often had issues with. Generally speaking, here is a graph.
Iran do not feature on the list of nations possessing nuclear weapons.
Israel on the other hand, do.
Its fundamentally hypocritical to stop another nation from obtaining them if you have some.
Or does it matter which side is the goodies, and which are the baddies?
The fewer countries that have the bloody things the better.
If a countries leaders constantly sprout the elimination of your country and embark on a program that could result in them obtaining nuclear weapons, then the rules of 'fairness' and hypocrisy go out the window. You don't play fair. You use the advantage while you still possess it. You're going to do everything in your power and capability to make sure such a program doesn't progress.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 18, 2025, 05:13:04 pm
While those counts in the hundreds and thousands of warheads are alarming, the vast bulk of the listed weapons fall into the tactical nuclear weapons category. The real threat is the yield relative to the size of the device, they yield a similar level of devastation to massive conventional weapons but at a fraction of the size of a conventional weapon.
This means they can be deployed on missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, even shells (artillery), etc., etc.. Also, the yield of a tactical weapon is typically variable, in that they can be "adjusted" over a wide yield range subject to the intended target. For example the bunker busters can yield from as low as 1 kiloton up to several tens of kilotons and be delivered deep into subterranean spaces.
It's not clear the types of weapons various states hold, the count itself is not so useful, it's unlikely the initial weapons of a new player would be tactical. They are more likely to be strategic requiring ICBMs or heavy bombers. I know that doesn't sound very comforting but it caps the useful range of most weapons in modern warfare, it's not at all clear how they would be reliably delivered.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Gointocarlton on June 18, 2025, 06:58:26 pm
All I'll say is that it's at times like this that I am glad we are 12,000km away. People in the region need to make snap decisions based on intel, these regions basically live on high alert. Fark that.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on June 18, 2025, 07:05:30 pm
Iran do not feature on the list of nations possessing nuclear weapons.
Israel on the other hand, do.
Its fundamentally hypocritical to stop another nation from obtaining them if you have some.
Or does it matter which side is the goodies, and which are the baddies?
The fewer countries that have the bloody things the better.
If a countries leaders constantly sprout the elimination of your country and embark on a program that could result in them obtaining nuclear weapons, then the rules of 'fairness' and hypocrisy go out the window. You don't play fair. You use the advantage while you still possess it. You're going to do everything in your power and capability to make sure such a program doesn't progress.
Even if the supposed best intelligence network says that the program doesn't exist?
I bet Ukraine is spitting chips that it gave up what was the world's third largest nuclear arsenal.
You're right though, no-one should have nuclear weapons, but I can't see that happening unless we produce a brand new crop of genuine leaders not wedded to 20th century ideologies and nationalism.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: madbluboy on June 18, 2025, 09:13:25 pm
Putin has offered himself to be peacemaker.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Gointocarlton on June 18, 2025, 09:16:49 pm
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on June 18, 2025, 11:05:01 pm
Iran is Russia’s source of drones for its war on Ukraine. It’s in Putin’s interests if Iran’s weapons manufacturing capacity isn’t diminished by the Israeli bombardment.
Until the recent transfer of US-supplied Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, Israel has refused to provide military aid to Ukraine or to impose sanctions on Russia.
Two of Tsar Vlad’s very few supporting nations are bombing the crap out of each other and it’s in his in interests to hose things down.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 18, 2025, 11:33:54 pm
Iran is Russia’s source of drones for its war on Ukraine. It’s in Putin’s interests if Iran’s weapons manufacturing capacity isn’t diminished by the Israeli bombardment.
Until the recent transfer of US-supplied Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, Israel has refused to provide military aid to Ukraine or to impose sanctions on Russia.
Two of Tsar Vlad’s very few supporting nations are bombing the crap out of each other and it’s in his in interests to hose things down.
Gets his ballistic missiles from Iran too, Putins recent Middle East forays havent been great having been booted out of Syria along with his puppet Assad with rebels now in charge who are backed by Turkey and the USA.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 19, 2025, 02:08:11 pm
Maybe I'm paranoid, but it looks fairly obvious to me that Russia, China and Nth Korea are barracking for RedTrump to involve the USA, and they are doing so by prodding the MAGA faithful to force RedTrump's into action!
But keep in mind, in terms of politics and funding, the bigger donor to the GOP or Democrats is AIPAC. AIPAC is the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and they donate roughly 5x or10x more than other individuals or company! I think last election in total AIPAC donated US$350M, the next best was one of the big weapons companies that made about US$84M in donations, and there is a whole host of weapons companies in the top ten.
Interestingly, Musk does not appear on many lists, are his claims of huge donations bogus or are they so otherwise indirect they can't be measured? Would it be odd if a RedTrump ally issued bogus claims?
Of course that is now eclipsed by a US$600M aircraft! ;)
While all that is happening, RedTrump's focus on Iran is a convenient distraction to what is going on in the Indo-Pacific, just what China and Nth Korea would like!
btw., When you read all these numbers, $10M, $50M, $600M, it's really all chicken feed to wealthy nation states and huge multinationals. For example, Apple's 2024 advertising budget was US$7.2B
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 19, 2025, 03:26:16 pm
Maybe I'm paranoid, but it looks fairly obvious to me that Russia, China and Nth Korea are barracking for RedTrump to involve the USA, and they are doing so by prodding the MAGA faithful to force RedTrump's into action!
But keep in mind, in terms of politics and funding, the bigger donor to the GOP or Democrats is AIPAC. AIPAC is the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and they donate roughly 5x or10x more than other individuals or company! I think last election in total AIPAC donated US$350M, the next best was one of the big weapons companies that made about US$84M in donations, and there is a whole host of weapons companies in the top ten.
Interestingly, Musk does not appear on many lists, are his claims of huge donations bogus or are they so otherwise indirect they can't be measured? Would it be odd if a RedTrump ally issued bogus claims?
Of course that is now eclipsed by a US$600M aircraft! ;)
While all that is happening, RedTrump's focus on Iran is a convenient distraction to what is going on in the Indo-Pacific, just what China and Nth Korea would like!
btw., When you read all these numbers, $10M, $50M, $600M, it's really all chicken feed to wealthy nation states and huge multinationals. For example, Apple's 2024 advertising budget was US$7.2B
The USA are involved officially or unofficially like always....they start, escalate conflicts and then leave when the damage is done , the repair bill then arrives and the refugees need a new home which is where the rest of the world have to come in and pick up the tab.Protect the oil fields at all costs and dont spill a drop is the USA battle cry, meanwhile we are paying double for our petrol, have doubled our detention centres, and the USA are claiming to have saved the day again.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 19, 2025, 07:08:02 pm
I prefer to look at this as the ongoing stoush from history. Instead of a side winning and losing you have an arm wrestle that never ends.
Even when one side is down, and the other well and truly dominant the stoush will eventually blow up again, and all that changes is which people suffer along the way.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: shawny on June 19, 2025, 07:15:56 pm
Maybe I'm paranoid, but it looks fairly obvious to me that Russia, China and Nth Korea are barracking for RedTrump to involve the USA, and they are doing so by prodding the MAGA faithful to force RedTrump's into action!
But keep in mind, in terms of politics and funding, the bigger donor to the GOP or Democrats is AIPAC. AIPAC is the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and they donate roughly 5x or10x more than other individuals or company! I think last election in total AIPAC donated US$350M, the next best was one of the big weapons companies that made about US$84M in donations, and there is a whole host of weapons companies in the top ten.
Interestingly, Musk does not appear on many lists, are his claims of huge donations bogus or are they so otherwise indirect they can't be measured? Would it be odd if a RedTrump ally issued bogus claims?
Of course that is now eclipsed by a US$600M aircraft! ;)
While all that is happening, RedTrump's focus on Iran is a convenient distraction to what is going on in the Indo-Pacific, just what China and Nth Korea would like!
btw., When you read all these numbers, $10M, $50M, $600M, it's really all chicken feed to wealthy nation states and huge multinationals. For example, Apple's 2024 advertising budget was US$7.2B
The USA are involved officially or unofficially like always....they start, escalate conflicts and then leave when the damage is done , the repair bill then arrives and the refugees need a new home which is where the rest of the world have to come in and pick up the tab.Protect the oil fields at all costs and dont spill a drop is the USA battle cry, meanwhile we are paying double for our petrol, have doubled our detention centres, and the USA are claiming to have saved the day again.
They are an necessary evil for us living in OZ.
While they are not the clean skin worlds policemen they like us to believe i would hate to imagine our future here without their backing. Regardless who is in power, both countries have been strong allies for a long time and while the reasons behind the relationship mostly favour them - when you have the land we do and then have an underwhelming defence force with no chance of defending a real threat - you have no option but to be someone's bitch.
It wouldn't take long to see our freedom here being challenged IMO if not for there ties to us.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 20, 2025, 12:51:04 pm
The USA are involved officially or unofficially like always....they start, escalate conflicts and then leave when the damage is done , the repair bill then arrives and the refugees need a new home which is where the rest of the world have to come in and pick up the tab.Protect the oil fields at all costs and dont spill a drop is the USA battle cry, meanwhile we are paying double for our petrol, have doubled our detention centres, and the USA are claiming to have saved the day again.
They are an necessary evil for us living in OZ.
While they are not the clean skin worlds policemen they like us to believe i would hate to imagine our future here without their backing. Regardless who is in power, both countries have been strong allies for a long time and while the reasons behind the relationship mostly favour them - when you have the land we do and then have an underwhelming defence force with no chance of defending a real threat - you have no option but to be someone's bitch.
It wouldn't take long to see our freedom here being challenged IMO if not for there ties to us.
Agree with all of that in theory Shawny and that's how it's been in the past but I don't trust the USA to hold up their end of any agreements unless it's affecting their bottom line or national interests. I'd rather see us spending more on defense and looking after our own backyard than relying on the USA to help us.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 20, 2025, 01:21:14 pm
Agree with all of that in theory Shawny and that's how it's been in the past but I don't trust the USA to hold up their end of any agreements unless it's affecting their bottom line or national interests.
I'd rather see us spending more on defense and looking after our own backyard than relying on the USA to help us.
RedTrump has made it clear, under his leadership help goes to the highest bidder, or the most profitable, he'll walk over your corpse for a coin, being an ally and having fought side by side throughout history means nothing to RedTrump.
We were one of the few countries to support the USA in the Gulf, my UK friends were embarrassed by the UK's lack of involvement. They questioned what it meant to be British, "If Australia was there how can it be we aren't?"
The people who fought, some who died, side by side with our own troops, aren't they some of the ones RedTrump called losers?
RedTrump called US Veterans losers, and his MAGA fans still think he'll come to their rescue! :o
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 21, 2025, 08:27:30 am
Has anyone done any research into exploding tactical nukes in their bunkers and nuclear fallout vs them exploding as part of a weapon?
I.e. lets pretend Iran has said nukes, what is the projected impact of bombing it before its launched vs what the projected fallout is from deployment.
Obviously the nation receiving said nukes is better off, but there's no guarantee it's actually launched. Meanwhile, if it gets blown up whilst in its underground bunker, there is a guarantee it goes off. Are thr Israelis and USA playing a dangerous game with a nuclear arsenal they dont have a good understanding of? What if there is a worse impact from this action of striking first than there would be from not?
India and Pakistan have nukes. They may use them against each other they probably won't. Anyone who launches one sits in crazy territory to me. They will end life as we know it for their own squabble and reminds me of the bully destroying toys in the mode of, "If I cant have one, you cant either and ill wreck it for you" except this way most of the world suffers.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Professer E on June 21, 2025, 09:31:35 am
It's already been done. The poms blew up a warhead at Maralinga in the 50s, we were still picking up highly radioactive debris until recently. Cost us hundreds of millions, killed countless regional South Australians with bizarre cancers. The scary thing is attacking a working nuclear power plant, that will explode if the control and cooling system is rendered inoperable. I can't believe the Israelis would be reckless enough to even contemplate that, they should be considered a rogue state if they did. PS I believe warheads deteriorate over time, something about the tritium decaying to deuterium which dampens the chain reaction, also there's a complex Li metal hydride that is an enhancer that has a limited shelf life. Wondered why Li has been in the news lately? It's not just an EV battery component.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 21, 2025, 10:11:15 am
Russia shelled Ukraines Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before Ukraine abandoned it to safeguard any further damage. Israel have also targeted Irans only Nuclear Power facility which is run by Russian staff and forced them to abandon the facility to prevent further attacks. The transmission infrastructure is usually the main target but it's a fine line in terms of accuracy and a disaster waiting to happen.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 21, 2025, 01:11:54 pm
The failure mechanisms and risks are very specific to the type of facility or device, most of what gets discussed in media are generalisations from worst case scenarios for specific types of device or facility.
If you destroyed a large scale SolarPV farm with conventional munitions, the dust from some rather nasty trace elements used in the manufacture of SolarPV would be as deadly if not even more deadly and toxic than radioisotopes. The same applies to grid scale batteries and battery fires.
In Australia, most of the weird detections of radioactive isotopes possibly correlated to cancers come from the French nuclear testing regime. I say possibly because the connection / correlation is pretty weak, in that thyroid cancers are often found with radioactive isotopes associated with nuclear testing but the reality is nearly all of us who lived through that era will test positive to some isotope associated with testing yet most won't even develop a correlated disease. The trace isotopes are so common around the globe earth sciences now use that layer as a date marker.
The reality is, if you live in a building, have a basement, sub floor or below ground enclosed space in your home, you are already exposed to far more radioactivity from radium gases than you'll ever get from nuclear testing or even medical imaging.
A lot of people involved in mining in states like SA and WA want to claim their ill health is a result of nuclear testing, I suppose it suits the lawyers. Reality is the outback is littered with natural sources of radioactive isotopes, and as soon as you start digging they are in the air, in dust storms and watering holes, our wide brown land is trying it's best to kill us.
That's not making an excuse for nuclear testing, it shouldn't be done and nuclear weapons should be illegal, but we should not be generalising the risk of nuclear energy in the same category.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Professer E on June 21, 2025, 02:41:15 pm
Read up on some history mate, atomising 8 kg of weapons grade fissionable material wasn't good for anybody. Why do you think water tanks were banned across SA for a long period?
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 21, 2025, 03:50:55 pm
This isn't a debate about whether something is good or bad, it's a debate / discussion I made about relative risk.
For example; Smoke detectors commonly use americium 241, it's present in the amount of a microgram or so and has a half life of only 432 years. Most have many such devices in their home, and the occupants get more radioactive isotope exposure from those detectors than all the nuclear testing ever conducted collectively.
Uranium used for weapons has a half life of 700 million to 4.3 billion of years dependant on the 235 or 238 split isotope, that determines how long it takes for half of any quantity to emit decay via an alpha particle(typically a helium nucleus). Suspensions in water are typically measured in picograms.
While you wouldn't swallow a small amount of any such material deliberately, the chance of direct harm by accidentally consuming some is vastly overstated relative to exposure to other natural sources of radioactive elements or toxic chemicals.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 22, 2025, 02:04:22 pm
Trump and the USA enter the conflict between Israel and Iran by bombing Fordow and associated sites which is no surprise, Im presuming we will have a rise in terrorist attacks given Iran wont be able to do much on the conventional warfare front to hit back. https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/trump-says-iran-strikes-spectacular-military-success-and-warns-bully-iran-to-make-peace-or-face-greater-attacks/ar-AA1HaEZf?ocid=winp2fptaskbarhover&cvid=90f3385e21284febd21efc1258a9becb&ei=8
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: tonyo on June 22, 2025, 02:40:53 pm
Gotta love the Trump tweet - talking about the successful bombing raid on Fordow, and ends with (in capital letters) NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE.
That's a novel way to commence diplomatic discussions.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 22, 2025, 03:34:31 pm
Imagine punching someone and then labelling them the bully for retaliating.
In my lifetime (since 82) the USA has been involved in more conflict in the middle east than Carlton has been premierships.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: kruddler on June 22, 2025, 05:22:17 pm
Imagine punching someone and then labelling them the bully for retaliating.
In my lifetime (since 82) the USA has been involved in more conflict in the middle east than Carlton has been premierships.
There was some stat which i will bastardise, but you'll get the point.
In 240-odd years, America has been at war with 1 country or another for at least 1 day of that calandar year for 230-odd of those years.
US are the biggest bullies but have a very good propaganda machine. I mean, its so good they got trump elected.....twice!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on June 22, 2025, 07:08:31 pm
No doubt krudd. I want to highlight that their work is a somewhat necessary evil at times and they play a proxy role of world police, but this latest one is just an abject joke. They dont even hide that they push their own agenda. As soon as Iran threatened to block oil off the USA went to bomb the place.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: crashlander on June 22, 2025, 08:15:09 pm
I do wonder about the thoughts that went through Trump's head (assuming there were some). [1] smarter men with better understandings of world politics have faced similar situations (and more reason or need) and decided NOT to get directly involved. Yet, Donald goes in first first. [2] Trump's election promise was not to get into another 'Forever War'. [3] It would be nice to see the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran (which is neither particularly Islamic nor a republic), but what happens if the government does fall? I don't see whoever rises from the rubble being a better world citizen that the present bunch. Old maxim: when a regime is replaced by force, the successor state is usually very similar to one it replaces, even if their stated ideology is totally different. Example: Czarist Russia & the Soyuz Sovietsky Socialisti Replubliki.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 22, 2025, 10:58:17 pm
MAGA is self-destructing now, a faint stench of anti-Semitism helped MAGA in it's foundation, and now RedTrump is assisting Israel.
They are so conflicted, they no longer know who to hate!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on June 24, 2025, 09:32:50 pm
Donald's not happy. He's going for the Nobel and folks aren't helping. Reckon's Israel and Iran have been fighting so long that "they don't know what the Fck they're doing"
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on June 25, 2025, 07:48:05 pm
So RedTrump claims the bunker busters dropped on Iran were bigger than Hiroshima!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 02, 2026, 04:50:06 pm
Well, it's on again and more serious this time.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader for the last 36 years, has been killed by air strikes, along with other leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of course, that's a misnomer as the regime is not republican or Iranian but is a Shia cartel that has brutally suppressed all other Iranian political and religious groups since they seized power in 1979. I don't think too many folk will be mourning Khamenei and his thugs.
The other side of the coin is that the USA and Israel started a war without UN approval and, in the case of the USA, without the constitutionally required Congressional approval. On top of that, only about 25% of Americans support the war and that number will probably drop as the war drags on, casualties increase and the price of oil climbs.
Other issues are the expansion of the conflict to other Middle Eastern nations, the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the fact that regime change has never been achieved through air strikes and always requires boots on the ground, and the potential for Iran to become a failed state like the other Middle Eastern nations that have had forced regime change.
Ukraine is happy because the supply of Iranian Shahed drones to Russia will dry up.
Meanwhile, there's panic buying at service stations and I expect that there'll be a run on dunny rolls ::)
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: kruddler on March 02, 2026, 04:58:06 pm
Meanwhile, there's panic buying at service stations and I expect that there'll be a run on dunny rolls ::)
I've been hiding under a rock the past few days due to a family emergency....and not sure when all this actually kicked off.
However, the first thing i saw on my phone was an article telling everyone to go and stock up on fuel because of the war with Iran will limit supply and increase costs.
Can't remember where the article was from, but clearly i wasn't the only person to see it as i've had 4 other people talk about that very issue today.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 02, 2026, 05:21:52 pm
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader for the last 36 years, has been killed by air strikes, along with other leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of course, that's a misnomer as the regime is not republican or Iranian but is a Shia cartel that has brutally suppressed all other Iranian political and religious groups since they seized power in 1979. I don't think too many folk will be mourning Khamenei and his thugs.
The other side of the coin is that the USA and Israel started a war without UN approval and, in the case of the USA, without the constitutionally required Congressional approval. On top of that, only about 25% of Americans support the war and that number will probably drop as the war drags on, casualties increase and the price of oil climbs.
Other issues are the expansion of the conflict to other Middle Eastern nations, the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the fact that regime change has never been achieved through air strikes and always requires boots on the ground, and the potential for Iran to become a failed state like the other Middle Eastern nations that have had forced regime change.
Ukraine is happy because the supply of Iranian Shahed drones to Russia will dry up.
Meanwhile, there's panic buying at service stations and I expect that there'll be a run on dunny rolls ::)
Good summary, Id like to know what the plan is now the old Ayatollah has been terminated if there is a plan? or will Iran descend into a civil war and the rest of the world will have to pick up the pieces. The old regime are still in control of the military on the ground and Ali Larijani while not a Cleric is tipped as the readymade replacement who has already declared there will be revenge. Food and water are in short supply and oil supplies blockaded, so refugees galore and an ongoing conflict other countries have to navigate around. The USA really need to complete the job when they make these attacks or not get involved at all and have a history of these unfinished interventions that take years to resolve and then rely on other countries to cleanup the mess.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 02, 2026, 05:31:47 pm
Plan EB, what plan?
There's Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi waiting in the wings and cheering the US on, but I'm not sure that the Iranians will want to change an authoritarian theocratic regime for an authoritarian monarchical regime.
I suspect that the USA thinks that chopping the head off the snake will encourage the populace to rise up and establish a western style constitutional democracy.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 02, 2026, 05:48:48 pm
Meanwhile, there's panic buying at service stations and I expect that there'll be a run on dunny rolls ::)
I've been hiding under a rock the past few days due to a family emergency....and not sure when all this actually kicked off.
However, the first thing i saw on my phone was an article telling everyone to go and stock up on fuel because of the war with Iran will limit supply and increase costs.
Can't remember where the article was from, but clearly i wasn't the only person to see it as i've had 4 other people talk about that very issue today.
Best fill up if you can get a good price before the petrol people jack it up...which they'll do regardless.
Barnaby Joyce asked a question about supply during Question time today.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said Australia has 36 days worth of petrol and 34 days worth of diesel stockpiled.
Joyce took a point of order and asked whether the stored reserves were on Australian soil or on ships.
Bowen said either in Australia “or on ships in our economic zone”...so on the way. Apparently those stocks are pretty normal which surprised me...in fact better than usual so 'no worries' just yet.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 02, 2026, 05:54:28 pm
I love this title.
On an ambivalence level what does a nato sanctioned war look like?
Also, can I ask, how would we all like it if someone destroyed parliament and enforced their own take on our leadership?
We probably wouldnt necessarily hate our government being over thrown but they're going to need some staunch leadership to right that ship, and if history is a guide this is just history repeating since the Iraq involvement in the 80's.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 02, 2026, 06:02:58 pm
Beyond that there's not much to like. This is world war 3 unfolding. A critical thinker would say it started years ago. Some would assert this is simply the continuation of all the proxy wars fought since I can remember. This is gonna get really ugly.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 02, 2026, 06:04:27 pm
I believe that under International Energy Agency rules, we should hold 90 days worth but we're usually around the 50 day mark.
It would seem to be a no brainer to have our strategic reserves stored here rather than in the USA. There's really no guarantee that the USA will hand our reserves over or have the means to get it to us.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: PaulP on March 02, 2026, 06:09:45 pm
How many American Presidents have either not started any new wars / conflicts, or ended conflicts they inherited ? Trump is a useless sack of sh1t, but he's upholding a proud, time honored American tradition.
Americans are crying out for the chance of living a life of some meaning and purpose,and they get this. Apparently no money for social services or anything that might actually help people, but plenty of dough for war. And they can't even get that right.
"If you ever feel useless, remember it took 20 years, trillions of dollars and 4 US Presidents to replace the Taliban with the Taliban."
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 02, 2026, 06:22:05 pm
On an ambivalence level what does a nato sanctioned war look like?
Nothing to do with NATO. The Treaty only comes into force in a member state is attacked. The USA argued that 9/11 was an attack on it by Afghanistan, hence NATO involvement. Most NATO countries have refused permission for US aircraft to use their bases.
Also, can I ask, how would we all like it if someone destroyed parliament and enforced their own take on our leadership?
I may be cynical but is this about concern for the Iranian people or access to oil?
We probably wouldnt necessarily hate our government being over thrown but they're going to need some staunch leadership to right that ship, and if history is a guide this is just history repeating since the Iraq involvement in the 80's.
Libya, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria? Using military might to topple a government can work in the long run, but only with something like the Marshall Plan in Germany or SCAP in Japan. That's not going to happen in Iran and it's going to take a miracle to see Iran functioning as it should.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 02, 2026, 06:29:11 pm
On an ambivalence level what does a nato sanctioned war look like?
Nothing to do with NATO. The Treaty only comes into force in a member state is attacked. The USA argued that 9/11 was an attack on it by Afghanistan, hence NATO involvement. Most NATO countries have refused permission for US aircraft to use their bases.
I think the UK might have reversed their decision and France and Germany are also thinking about it.
Also, can I ask, how would we all like it if someone destroyed parliament and enforced their own take on our leadership?
I may be cynical but is this about concern for the Iranian people or access to oil?
We probably wouldnt necessarily hate our government being over thrown but they're going to need some staunch leadership to right that ship, and if history is a guide this is just history repeating since the Iraq involvement in the 80's.
Libya, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria? Using military might to topple a government can work in the long run, but only with something like the Marshall Plan in Germany or SCAP in Japan. That's not going to happen in Iran and it's going to take a miracle to see Iran functioning as it should.
It's a recipe for disaster.
To get the regime to fall will be a difficult task because they control the weaponry, and won't hesitate to use it on their own people.
Many in Iran have no desire to adopt a more freer, non religious form of government. It will be a country divided.
There seems to be no thinking as to what comes next should the regime fall.
It's not a conflict that can be restrained by borders and terrorist acts will occur across the world against the US and it's supporters.
It sends a message to other superpowers that there aren't any rules anymore and 'might is right'.
Bibi must have some excellent polaroids.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 03, 2026, 07:36:27 pm
Those Kuwaitis have crack anti-aircraft capabilities. :D They just need to work on their identification skills ;)
(Something not quite right there ::) )
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 03, 2026, 11:05:29 pm
The US State Department has now advised Americans to leave the Middle East by commercial airlines. Of course, there are no commercial flights.
Marco Rubio has confirmed that the US attacked Iran because Israel advised that it was going to attack Iran and that would lead to Iran retaliating and it was best to get in first 🙄
Why on earth wouldn’t the “Peace President” tell Bibi to back off?
The troubling thing is how fluid the justification for the attack is; preventing the development of nuclear weapons becomes facilitating regime change and that becomes getting in first before Iran strikes. No mention of Iran’s oil reserves and control of Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, Melania chaired a meeting of the UN Security Council. I understand that she kept her clothes on but WTF!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 04, 2026, 09:39:21 am
It seems that gamblers with inside knowledge are making a killing betting on when and where missile strikes and other military actions will take place.
Apart from the immorality and corruption, this is a major security failing.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: PaulP on March 04, 2026, 10:10:04 am
I read somewhere that members of Congress were buying defense stocks in the weeks leading up to the war.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 04, 2026, 12:31:21 pm
From the Age:
Quote
Bettors placed $US425.4 million ($598 million) in wagers on geopolitics questions on Polymarket in the week ending March 1, up from $US163.9 million the week before, according to user-compiled data on Dune Analytics. Across the site, total wagering reached a record $US2.4 billion, up from $US1.8 billion a week earlier ...
Nine of the 10 most-traded geopolitics markets last week were tied to Iran, according to blockchain data. Contracts linked to the timing of US strikes on Iran dominated the list, with each drawing between $US8 million and $US53 million in volume.
The most active geopolitics market asked whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out as Iran’s supreme leader by February 28. That contract drew $US84 million in volume on Polymarket during the week, out of $US104 million total. https://www.theage.com.au/world/middle-east/geopolitics-bets-hit-a-record-as-iran-war-escalates-20260303-p5o754.html
Someone is clearly revealing operational plans. Iran's defence planners should be monitoring the geopolitics markets, if they're not already.
Not Iran but a "mystery trader" received a $610,000 windfall with a bet on Nicolás Maduro’s capture!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 04, 2026, 02:20:52 pm
On an ambivalence level what does a nato sanctioned war look like?
Nothing to do with NATO. The Treaty only comes into force in a member state is attacked. The USA argued that 9/11 was an attack on it by Afghanistan, hence NATO involvement. Most NATO countries have refused permission for US aircraft to use their bases.
Also, can I ask, how would we all like it if someone destroyed parliament and enforced their own take on our leadership?
I may be cynical but is this about concern for the Iranian people or access to oil?
We probably wouldnt necessarily hate our government being over thrown but they're going to need some staunch leadership to right that ship, and if history is a guide this is just history repeating since the Iraq involvement in the 80's.
Libya, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria? Using military might to topple a government can work in the long run, but only with something like the Marshall Plan in Germany or SCAP in Japan. That's not going to happen in Iran and it's going to take a miracle to see Iran functioning as it should.
I think i named this thread... its still bloody good though!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 04, 2026, 02:23:00 pm
I think i named this thread... its still bloody good though!
Even if you do say so yourself ;)
If we had a prize for the best thread title, you'd have to be the favourite Thry!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Gointocarlton on March 04, 2026, 02:36:45 pm
I have several Iranian work colleagues whom I find to be among the most beautiful humans that I have ever met, for them I am truly devastated. Whilst checking in with them offering my support, they have conveyed to me that whilst extremely painful and scary for them and their families back home, they feel like this pain is worth going through to hopefully change the lives of Iranians for ever. I dont know what else to say other than to add "courageous" to how I describe them.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 04, 2026, 03:37:38 pm
@Gointocarlton me too, I have several Iranian colleagues, some Catholic who fled and others Muslim who also fled. They still have family back there living in tyranny.
Fanatics have no allies, if you aren't for them you are against them, and you can become against them at any moment, and the tyranny in Iran is truly fanatical. One colleague I had a few years back, who has now moved OS, even had to take steps to avoid being pursued by foreign agents.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 04, 2026, 07:49:03 pm
Gee, the AI crap around this is conflict is abolutely ridiculous. Most of it is easy to pick. Just about all of it is propaganda.
But sifting through it all I'm not sure the 'special military operation' is going exactly to US/Israel expectations. Is this the rock the 'Don and his minions' perishes on
Actually, the question is..."Is there actually a plan?"
The administration seems to be all over the shop with some of their comments.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: PaulP on March 04, 2026, 08:06:32 pm
There's a concept of a plan.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Professer E on March 04, 2026, 09:17:18 pm
Get the feeling this war is all about expanding the borders of a certain country, covetous eyes being turned towards someone else's orange groves and olive orchards...
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 04, 2026, 09:33:00 pm
Surely the main plan is to get Epstein off the front pages again.....
He'll run out of targets soon enough.
The problem is that the US has run out of munitions. Despite Taco's protestations to the contrary, they've used almost everything they've got and they're hoping that a round table with arms manufacturers will boost production. They're also hoping that allies will come to the party but Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Poland and Spain have made it clear that it's an illegal war and they won't get involved.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: crashlander on March 14, 2026, 07:31:41 pm
The Iran War is headed ... where? Trump is now saying that US troops may take over parts of Iran.
I don't like the Iranian government: theocracies are rarely desirable places to live, but he should really study a little history. Two quotes that come to mind: [1] Ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant: They make a desolation and call it peace by Tacitus, who supposed quoted an British chieftain, Calgacus.
[2] Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it, by George Santayana
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 15, 2026, 12:40:09 pm
Operation Epic Fury, or perhaps that should be Epic Foolishness, is a classic clusterf*ck.
No defined justification, no clear objectives, no exit strategy, no consideration of the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, underestimating the capacity and doggedness of the Iranians, taking the pressure off the Russians, weakening South Korea's air defences, screwing the economy ...
Then there's the human toll. Apart from death and injury, it's estimated that between 25% and 75% of military personnel serving in the Middle East will suffer from PTSD - and that includes our Wedgetail crew and support staff.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 15, 2026, 02:21:58 pm
Operation Epic Fury, or perhaps that should be Epic Foolishness, is a classic clusterf*ck.
No defined justification, no clear objectives, no exit strategy, no consideration of the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, underestimating the capacity and doggedness of the Iranians, taking the pressure off the Russians, weakening South Korea's air defences, screwing the economy ...
Then there's the human toll. Apart from death and injury, it's estimated that between 25% and 75% of military personnel serving in the Middle East will suffer from PTSD - and that includes our Wedgetail crew and support staff.
Yes.
I have a view that isnt gully formed and isnt well fleshed out.
I get the idea that this war had started in earnest a long time ago.
The Russian operation in Ukraine is part of it. That move never really made a lot of sense to me, but we all know whats happening now. Without that move, Iran couldnt simply close the straight of Hormuz. There was an alternate path. This is the cold war. What started in Libya had progressed to the right on the map, pretty much in a straight line. Its the war without war, more skirmishes and positioning.
The power balance was flipping so Iran has simply become the next battle line. One that is proving too difficult an obstacle. The nuclear thing is rubbish. Regime change, also rubbish. That could have been insighted differently without the open aggression.
There is a scenario of perhaps the Israelis were poking the bear to tune their defenses. I reckon everyone wants to see the drone capabilities, the cluster missiles and how better to get access to the tech than provoking use of them.
Now you get to see it in the field before someone truly goes on the offensive with it.
Like I said not well fleshed out, and definitely in theory, but I dont think America is too phased by whats happening and israels palestine, hamas, Lebanon thing is just the continuation of what was going on. That attack in Bondi, was simply a message being sent. You can hit us anywhere we can hit you from your own populace.
Worrying times, but at the same time likely to fizzle out by design.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 16, 2026, 03:36:56 am
Taco claims that US air strikes had "totally demolished" much of Iran's Kharg Island but warned that he might launch more strikes on Iran's primary oil export terminal "just for fun".
War isn't a computer game and it's pretty obvious that none of the US administration have family members in the military.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Professer E on March 16, 2026, 07:50:53 am
...or a clue about economics and how the world's economies work.
When are the Zionists going to pay the rent?
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 16, 2026, 07:59:08 am
I wrote after the Venezuela thing that maybe Trump needed a 'loss' to curb some of the more extreme actions and comments. Regime change might be getting closer (not necessarily in Iran ;) )but at a considerable cost.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: northernblue on March 16, 2026, 09:00:40 am
We can pray for regime change…
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on March 16, 2026, 09:47:15 am
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 16, 2026, 12:15:56 pm
The USA hard right want Hanson, are they indirectly funding campaigns? What churches or societal groups does One nation get cash from besides China backed miners? It would be a bit hypocritical for a bunch who will claim election tampering when they eventually lose back home!
Hanson falls in with US Hard Right Christian Fundamentalist ideology, time for a new crusade, bring on the rapture, slaughter the heathen hoard, etc., etc.. Her racist undertones fit right in! Remember, they are just Zionists once removed! ;)
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: madbluboy on March 16, 2026, 12:17:55 pm
I'm voting One Nation.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 16, 2026, 12:18:58 pm
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 16, 2026, 07:17:39 pm
It has been reported that Israel has told the USA that it is running dangerously low on anti-ballistic missile munitions.
That's despite Taco claiming that Iran is "essentially defeated".
Taco stated that he made the decision to attack Iran "based on what Steve [Witkoff] and Jared [Kushner], and Pete [Hegseth] and others were telling me ... Marco [Rubio] so involved, and that I thought they were going to attack us."
Apart from Iran not having the capacity to attack the USA, what makes Witkoff, Kushner, Hegseth and Rubio experts on military strategy and threat assessments? It now seems clear that JD Vance advised against attacking Iran, as did the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine.
And then there's Chris Wright, the Administration's Energy Secretary, who announced that he was not concerned that the war might disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East and wreak havoc in energy markets.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 16, 2026, 08:27:30 pm
The asymmetry of modern warfare is a big deal, any country can knock up dozens or even hundreds of drones a day, in fact Australia has been a leader in this teaching Ukraine to manufacture cardboard drones that are virtually radar invisible and can be built for a few dollars each while delivering astounding lethality. All the fancy design and sleek carbon fibre lines are actually a hinderance.
In the meantime active defence systems are complicated and need calibration and tuning to be effective, if operated without calibration the defences become like deploying fly swatters versus a swarming hive.
Phalanx and such systems even need calibrated munitions to perform effectively, you just can't make enough of the good munitions fast enough to sustain long term battles, so they put troops on the ground.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 16, 2026, 10:00:35 pm
It’s interesting that we supplied AMRAAMs to UAE along with the Wedgetail electronic warfare aircraft.
An AMRAAM costs $2.4M, a Shahed drone costs $20K. That’s asymmetrical warfare.
Ukraine is leading the world in countering the Shahed drone threat with effective and relatively cheap weapons systems, including the Australian Slinger and Droneshield systems.
The USA expressed an interest in our Wedgetail but decided that their satellite system was better; it’s not! Similarly, the USA determined that their high tech, expensive anti-aircraft missiles were the best anti-drone weapons; they’re not!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: northernblue on March 16, 2026, 11:19:06 pm
Let’s keep this thread to Iran and the Middle East.
It’s EB’s fault, I was referring to the excursion monger…
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 16, 2026, 11:39:31 pm
There’s clearly some crossover with the Taco thread; who else would sell merchandise from the recent dignified transfer of war dead?
Then there’s the wearing of the campaign baseball cap when civilians are supposed to be bare headed and the salute that only military personnel may make. Stolen valour and grifting!
Perhaps we could change Thry’s clever thread title to “I ran so far away from the Epstein files” but the seagulls are already flocking with evil intent outside the local takeaway 🙄
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 17, 2026, 11:25:17 am
The USA expressed an interest in our Wedgetail but decided that their satellite system was better; it’s not! Similarly, the USA determined that their high tech, expensive anti-aircraft missiles were the best anti-drone weapons; they’re not!
Actually, I think they have now ordered Wedgetail, but it's being called something else to try and put an American brand on it. The story is complicated, for example software was chucked away because it wasn't complaint to the US Military standard, but the software rights were sold to a US Developer only to be reloaded as complaint. How sticky are those fingers?
FWIW, I've just been to a bunch of manufacturing and technology conferences, to avoid Taco's tariffs nearly every foreign invention is being rebranded as American and they are setting up shell companies to commercialise the inventions on US territory. I sat through one talk that was a rehash of 20 year old technology, invented and developed here under investment from among others the US Air Force. Up until now it's been implemented pretty much everywhere except the US because the nepotism in the GOP and US government. Now the very same people who blocked the import have joined the consortium, and rebranded the technology as Texan to manufacturing(assemble) it over there.
It reminds me of the old trans-shipping days, when companies would move goods across borders, repack and then re-export to avoid tariffs. I bet that is all coming back because as far as I know it was never made illegal, back then it became uneconomical when free trade was set in place.
Think about some of that, in the context or the Iran war, who is fighting who, and where the oil that keeps flowing is really coming from, trans-shipped of course! Isn't this illegal when it's money? :o Don't they have a name for it, "cleaned oil"! ;D
People in terms of the west's general public can be so gullible, shareholders corporate or oligarch, in Israel and the USA, keep taking dividends, the GOP might as well write Iran a cheque it would be cheaper than wasting expensive weapons!
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 17, 2026, 01:01:56 pm
The USAF E-7 Wedgetail program was initiated by the Biden administration but was blocked by Hegseth who, apart from opposing anything the previous administration supported, wants to go down the unproven and costly satellite route. However, Congress has written two Wedgetail prototypes into the US defence budget and their construction is under contract (and they're sticking with Wedgetail).
Congress is insisting that the two prototypes be delivered but Hegseth and Air Force Secretary Troy Meink are adamant that will be the end of the program.
One of the reasons that the Wedgetail was chosen by the Biden administration is that its systems are purposely compatible with US weapons systems employed by RAAF aircraft including the EA-18G Growlers, F-35A Lightnings, and FA-18F Super Hornets, as well as the RAN's USN-based weapons systems and the Army's systems fitted to the US-made Abrams and HIMARS and locally manufactured IFVs, SPGs, etc.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 17, 2026, 04:49:15 pm
I'm pretty sure the US recently reversed the decision, on the downlow of course, as there is no viable alternative so they will proceed with Wedgetail.
The futility of satellite in a high bandwidth Time on Target situation is exposed by the Starlink, Kiuper, Iris and others that need up to 100000+ devices in orbit to obtain moderate coverage and bandwidth that is only 1/10th of what Wedgetail can deliver. There is also bit of an AI fudge used to make the satellite data look better than it really is, but you can't do that in an active war zone because it's based on predictive AI algorithms that are about 50% hallucination. You can't be half right in a war zone.
Wedgetail can linger for up to 10 hrs continuously while covering almost 3x the area of the existing AWACS or similar, and do that from about 5x further away all the time acting as a high bandwidth hub for the F35s and also use the F35s remote sensors. To deliver similar coverage from the aging AWAC fleet they have to put 3x the aircraft in the same theatre, and even then can only achieve a fraction of the Wedgetail bandwidth. This is because the Wedgetail uses synthetic aperture MESA radar instead of mechanically scanned radar like the older AWAC and Poseidon systems. Wedgetail can scan, analyse and predict targets in real-time at the kilohertz rate, thousands of times per second, in the full 360° theatre, while the AWAC or P8 Poseidon typically scan a target just once every few seconds. I have some nostalgia for the older systems, but there is no comparison. Allies ridiculed the Jindalee OTHR, claiming the synthetic aperture radar had no useful application, then Australia miniaturised the technology and put it in a plane to wipe the floor with the opposition, but we aren't cocky about it, our lot just get on with the job!
Of course, we are building the SKA in WA, which is in effect a synthetic aperture telescope. Oddly all this stuff uses the same basic technologies.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 17, 2026, 05:21:55 pm
Hegseth and Meink made it very clear, in the week before the attack on Iran, that the two Wedgetail prototypes will be the end of the line. The USAF will make do with the ancient E-3 Sentry until the satellite option is operational - if ever.
You’d think that they could change their minds in the face of the RAAF Wedgetail’s performance in the Middle East, but that’s assuming rational decision-making.
The Wedgetail is Peace Eagle in the Türkiye Air Force and Wedgetail in RAF service.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: LP on March 17, 2026, 05:26:06 pm
Some funny things happening with Cuba's electricals in the last few days.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 18, 2026, 05:16:57 pm
Diesel is $2.94 per litre from a wholesaler's outlet on the Bellarine :(
Meanwhile an analysis of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz indicates that vessels are voluntarily rerouting through Iranian territorial waters to get safe passage. An unintended consequence of Taco's war is Iran having greater leverage with global energy trade.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 18, 2026, 06:18:51 pm
Joe Kent, Director of the USA's National Counterterrorism Center just resigned, stating:
"I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."
Kent details, in a letter to the POTUS, how he has been manipulated by high ranking Israeli officials and influential members of the American media. He concludes with a plea;
"I pray that you will reflect on what we are doing in Iran, and who we are doing it for. The time for bold action is now. You can reverse course and chart a new path for our nation, or you can allow us to slip further toward decline and chaos." https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-18/who-is-joe-kent-counterterrorism-trump-administration/106468640?utm_source=braze&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20260318_newspm_newsletter&utm_id=69ba46691b7e01b1edc3d66fa22d95ee&braze_id=69141093a9e9b500561146e5
Kent is a former Green Beret and was MAGA, but to Taco, he is now "weak on security" and those like him [who oppose the war] "... are not smart people, or they're not savvy people." I guess that means that the savvy people are Witkoff, Kushner, Hegseth and Rubio. ::)
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: PaulP on March 18, 2026, 07:34:03 pm
Trump said "I always thought he was a nice guy but I always thought he was weak on security. Very weak on security."
Soooo...................why give him the job in the first place ?
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 18, 2026, 09:28:45 pm
Trump said "I always thought he was a nice guy but I always thought he was weak on security. Very weak on security."
Soooo...................why give him the job in the first place ?
He wasn’t “weak on security” when he was MAGA.
What I find incomprehensible is that Kent is a former Green Beret and CIA operative but apparently knows less about security and military intelligence than a dodgy real estate developer with bone spurs. 🙄
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: PaulP on March 18, 2026, 09:46:38 pm
What I find incomprehensible is that Kent is a former Green Beret and CIA operative but apparently knows less about security and military intelligence than a dodgy real estate developer with bone spurs. 🙄
These types (Trump, Hanson, Milei, Erdogan, Meloni, Le Pan and many many others) represent the next step in the degradation of global political discourse. The great work of distinguished, foundational thinkers like Plato and Aristotle, discussing what makes a good society, what makes good government, political knowledge vs political opinion, the importance of knowledge and virtue in leaders, enlightened citizenry etc., now seem like a sad, distant joke.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Thryleon on March 18, 2026, 10:00:42 pm
Maybe its as simple as the cycle.
G. Michael Hopf Quote: “Hard times create strong men. Strong ..."Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.
The people currently leading the world are a bunch of silver spooners who are entitled. The world is being run accordingly.
Take the gender out of it of course. I say this with the knowledge that I'm probably the most privileged person in my family line including those who are younger than me.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Baggers on March 19, 2026, 09:19:22 am
What I find incomprehensible is that Kent is a former Green Beret and CIA operative but apparently knows less about security and military intelligence than a dodgy real estate developer with bone spurs. 🙄
These types (Trump, Hanson, Milei, Erdogan, Meloni, Le Pan and many many others) represent the next step in the degradation of global political discourse. The great work of distinguished, foundational thinkers like Plato and Aristotle, discussing what makes a good society, what makes good government, political knowledge vs political opinion, the importance of knowledge and virtue in leaders, enlightened citizenry etc., now seem like a sad, distant joke.
I strongly suspect that Bibi is pulling the strings of Hegseth and the Orange One. Which is also very opportune considering the Epstein stuff and plummeting approvals for the Republicans approaching the mid-terms.
Spot on, Pauly, there's more than a gulf between the great Greek thinkers and philosophers, and the morally bankrupt creatures running the US at present. But I don't think the Yanks, by and large, are buying the turd sangers that Hegseth and Trump are serving up at the moment. Rapidly becoming the most unpopular invasion by the US in their history.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: Lods on March 19, 2026, 09:43:10 am
I strongly suspect that Bibi is pulling the strings of Hegseth and the Orange One. Which is also very opportune considering the Epstein stuff and plummeting approvals for the Republicans approaching the mid-terms.
I thought he was dead :o
Some of the AI around this is really funny.
The Israelis show pictures of him doing everyday things-getting a coffee, planning who next to bomb, crossing another Iranian leader off his Hanukkah list.
Obviously AI, scream the sceptics, he's a goner, died in Gemany two weeks ago. They point to inconsistencies in the videos as proof.
But are the inconsistencies actually AI generated. ::) ::)
We'll eventually find out if he's dead, but it my take a year or two. One thing about the Iranians... they will let you know when someone is martyred.
Title: Re: Iran, I ran so far away - flock of seagulls
Post by: DJC on March 27, 2026, 04:24:29 pm
According to Taco, Iran "gave us a present, and the present arrived today. It was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money. I'm not going to tell you what the present is, but it was a very significant prize."
He then revealed “They said to show you the fact that we're real and solid, and we're going to let you have eight boats (sic) of oil, eight boats, eight big boats of oil. This was two days ago, and they'll sail up tomorrow.”
He provided more clarification, "They said, to show you the fact that we're real and solid and we're there, we're going to let you have eight boats of oil, eight boats, eight big boats of oil. I guess they were right, and they were real, and I think they were Pakistani-flagged... It ended up being 10 boats." He said that the two additional boats sent by Iran were "to apologise for something they said."
Unfortunately, shipping data for the Strait of Hormuz shows that five vessels have passed through the Strait since 23 March. Not ten, not eight, just five. And none of them are headed to the USA. Three are sailing to India, one is going to China, and the fifth is destined for Singapore.
If you're going to tell porkies, it's best if you don't embellish the story as you go and it's essential that they're not easily fact-checked.
With that in mind, cast your mind back to 4 March when Taco announced that the US International Development Finance Corporation would offer insurance “at a very reasonable price” for tankers and other ships in the Persian Gulf. He also said, “if necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible”. And, with his trademark caps lock, posted on social media, “No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD.”
It must be difficult to be the Bone Spurs in Chief of a complex military campaign with global implications when you have trouble understanding anything more complicated than a real estate transaction and find it hard to know what's real and what's imaginary.