If we win, we are in. If we draw, we are in. If either Adelaide or Sydney draw, we are in. If any of Saints, Adelaide or Sydney lose, we are in, even if we lose. (Fremantle are so far behind % wise, that it doesn't matter)
If we lose and everyone below us wins, we can still be in, but it'll come down to %. West Coast go above us if they win as their % is already better than ours. Saints got above us if they win as they are on the same points as us already. Adelaide and Sydney are about a 2-3-goal margin behind us in terms of %, so these results matter.
So VERY roughly speaking.... If Adelaide winning margin + Our losing margin > 2-3 goals, it will be pretty even % wise between us If Sydney winning margin + Our losing margin > 2-3 goals, it will be pretty even % wise between us.