One of my favourites annual topics, looking to see where we are going to get our goals from this season.
If we use a rule of thumb that you need to kick 15-goals in 50% of your matches and 20-goals in the other 50% of your matches to win more than you lose, we need to snag 385 goals in a season to be successful.
So, who is going to responsible for making a contribution ??
Garlett - 25
Kruezer & Warmock - 15
Tuohy - 10
Give Daisy a lazy 20 odd and Hendo to bag another 20 ;)
Hendo 50
Garlett 40
Waite 35
Menzel 20
Murphy 20
Casboult 15
Main contributors (25 to 50 goal range):
Walker (think he'll play forward this year)
Henderson
Waite
Garlett
Lesser contributors (more than 10, less than 25):
Murphy
Gibbs
Judd
Robinson
Yarran (think he'll play back)
McLean
Thomas
Carrazzo
Snag one or two every now and again:
Menzel
Simpson
Kreuzer
Warnock
Armfield
Bell
Everitt
Rowe
Casboult
Tuohy
Ellard
Snag one rarely:
Buckley
Lucas
Watson
Docherty
Temay
Bootsma
McInnes
Graham
Curnow
Jamison
White
Cripps
Giles
Holman
All rookies
Can I guess how many opposition goals will come from torp kick ins that get turned over just outside 50?
Waite - 35
Henderson - 30
Casboult - 20
Menzel - 30
Garlett - 40
Kreuzer - 15
Warnock - 15
Rowe - 15
Walker 20
Touhy - 15
Gibbs - 25
Murphy - 25
Judd - 25
Thomas - 20
Yarran - 15
Armfield - 15
Everitt - 15
Mclean - 10
Carrazzo - 10
Watson - 10
Lucas - 10
The rest - 20
Just for reference !!
2013 Carlton Total Goals Leaders (Minimum 5 Games Played)
Rank Name Games Total
1 Jeff Garlett 22 43
2 Eddie Betts 18 27
2 Jarrad Waite 14 27
4 Lachlan Henderson 24 26
4 Christopher Yarran 21 26
6 Marc Murphy 23 18
7 Dennis Armfield 24 17
8 Brock McLean 22 15
9 Zach Tuohy 24 13
10 Chris Judd 20 11
10 Bryce Gibbs 21 11
10 Mitch Robinson 21 11
13 Kane Lucas 17 9
13 Sam Rowe 10 9
15 Matthew Kreuzer 17 8
15 Troy Menzel 7 8
17 Andrew Walker 23 7
17 Levi Casboult 11 7
19 Edward Curnow 21 6
19 Kade Simpson 24 6
21 Heath Scotland 20 5
22 Tom Bell 9 4
22 Nicholas Duigan 5 4
24 Shaun Hampson 6 3
25 Matthew Watson 5 2
25 Joshua Bootsma 9 2
27 Robert Warnock 12 1
27 Jaryd Cachia 14 1
27 Andrew McInnes 8 1
27 Andrew Carrazzo 10 1
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It's an area I don't worry about too much as long as you've got quality forwards... yeah, I know, seem bleed'n' obvious. But not so. We have won Premierships without numerous dominant forwards... so have other clubs (Fluffy Ducks being the best example). We had a FF who could kick 100+ but didn't get near top 4 with him.
You do need at least two really good talls (not neccessarily 100+ goal kickers) and quality support. We played most of 2013 with only 1 quality tall forward - either Waite or Hendo, with the occasional cameo from Casboult.
This is why, as many have noted, that Watson is so important to us in 2014. A fit Waite and Hendo as the two tall forwards will be a huge headache for opposition sides. And if each kicked 30+ goals, we're looking good. We also need resting ruckmen to contribute (collectively) about 50 goals. Smalls and mids to do the rest. Gonna be a challenge, but the guys are there.
And then you woke up?
:o ;)
So many cynics. Remember, cynics know price but not value!
Is it fair to say that believing a duo that's kicked 9 goals last year and 70 in their entire careers won't kick 50 in a year is cynical? Even if you add casboult/rowe in the mix.
I can't believe that people are suggesting our players are just going to magically double or treble the number of goals they kick compared to last year. :o
If they kick straight this will be true.
We were within 50 points of all teams bar Hawks and Cats as far as points scored in the H & A went. We scored more points than Freo.
Points against was our downfall e.g. Freo 1518 (#1), Carlton 1992 (yet even the Hawks had 1859 pts. scored against them).
If we are to contend our mids need to improve defensively. Our rucks tapping to advantage might help too! ;)
It's as simple as that really.
We have about 4 ruckman in toto. So the chances of playing blokes 'in form' has improved.
If each ruckman on any given day kicks just 1 goal, that's 2 for the game. That brings rucking stocks closer to a 50 goal contribution for the year. Might only end up being 34 in reality but that is heading in the right direction. 1 goal per game contribution from each ruckman per game is an expectation they should have.
I'd rather measure and set expectations on what can be rather than measure against last year's dismal contribution, and hence be satisfied with 12 goals from the lot of them... hell, that'd be a 25% improvement! Setting 50 for the year should be out there... should seem way too high. Hell, no-one ever achieved great things with beige/modest expectations.
From an individual's perspective, giving them a lofty goal is great (although it will be demotivating if it's unreachable).
From a team's perspective, planning on ruckmen who have kicked 70 goals in their entire career to kick 50 in a year is probably asking for trouble. May as well ask for 50 goals from our half back line while we're at it. Yarran's kicked 3 from back there, so 2 per game from 3 players should be no issue.
Do any team's rucking combination get to 50 goals BTW?
I'd be looking for our resting rucks to kick a goal a game between them. If there is a ruckman permanently resting forward, then 2 goals a game between them.
If Kreuzer plays 75% game time in a forward pocket as a 3rd tall, I could easily see him kick 25+ in a season.
If Warnock could add 10+, then IMO that's a pretty good contribution from our rucks
He's kicked 13 in his entire career, he has no idea in the F50.
I agree with this.
I have always thought that every forward should have the aim(goal :P ) to score 1 goal (or assist) per Qtr.
6 Forwards = 6 goals a qtr x 4 qtr's = 24 goals. Now that is a big score and won't happen every week, but as players, you need to aim at something, and to me, for forwards, a goal a qtr is a good place to start !!
If SpecialK gets to 20 goals he will be well ahead of expectations.
I doubt Warnock will get more than 4 goals for the season, and I will be happy to eat my words if it happens otherwise.
If Rowe or Casboult play, they need 20~30 goals just to break even, as would be the case with Hendo or Waite.
I suspect Watson could get 20 goals or more this coming season if he plays enough games. I think Walker and Garlett could be in for big years.
Daisy knows how to find the big sticks and usually is a good finisher. He could be our highest scoring mid at least. Would like to see Judd nail more, Murphy, Gibbs, and Tuohy the champ. We need more goals from our mids, Garlett, Armfield and definitely Yarran. Take the heat off the forwards.
My thoughts exactly, not sure what the stats say but our midfield needs to impact the scoreboard more. One of the reasons I like the pickup of Daisy, proven goalkicking mid and adds another dimension to our midfield and forward line that was perhaps missing.
I think Murphy kicked something like 30 in his AA year, would love to see him up there again. Gibbs I also would love see pushing hard forward and kicking more goals, IMPACT THE GAME, enough with the cheapies on the half back line.
Take away last year and his rookie year and Thomas gets about 20 goals a season.
Murphy has kicked 31 in a season before (wasn't his AA year) but he averages about 20 goals as well when you take away his rookie year.
I don't know if Murphy is the best mid in the comp when you put the ball in his hands within 15m of the 50m line but if he isn't then list ahead of him would be very short. Reminds me a lot of Ratten in that regard, also exceptional close to the 50m line.
Anyway, we should expect 35 to 50 goals from these two. If we don't get that, then it will be a long year.
Please may I stick my neck out?
I think Casboult is capable of playing a Cloke role up forward.
He has great hands and if he projects himself and is sorted as a target
he will create pressure for crumbers. I think Menzel will be very useful pair of hands on the forward line.
I woud be swinging Waite, Everitt and Henderson between between forward and backline. Lots of goald coming this year!.
Hawks goals in the GF:
Gunston 4, Roughead 2, Franklin, Rioli, Smith, Breust, Hill
Gunston - third tall (Waite/Menzel?)
Roughead (Kreuzer?)
Frankiln (gone)
Rioli (Garlett/Yazz)
Smith (Lucas)
Breust (Walker/Gibbs)
Hill (Yazz)
Let's not get carried away with the 2 gun KPPs requirement, win the ball at the contest, use it well and the goals will come......
It'll have to be a comination of blokes - tall, medium and small...midfielders included which will make us very dangerous.
Of the medium/smaller types - we ofcourse have Garlett, Yarran, Murphy, Thomas and co but I am optimistic about the year for someone I have not been a big fan of (particularly playing as a winger/mid which he's been poor at at AFL level IMO) and that is Kane Lucas. Is 188cm tall but to me can find the ball well and could easily (in Betts' absence) become a mid-size forward for us along with Menzel, Garlett and Murphy. I think Judd would be great forward but seems to strugle to hit the scoreboard there. As an impacting mid and/or winger will be his go in 2014 for mine. Murphy I recon will kick 25-30+ goals this year and be a dominating force. lucas could get the 25 goal mark which is a massive leap for him but i reckon his role at AFL level is not as a specialt mid/winger but could become as a small/medium forward type.
I think the small/medium types to do well might in fact be Garlett, Murphy, Menzel, Lucas, Walker and Everitt.
Watson as a tall forward along with Henderson and a big unit such as Kreuzer or Casboult to play predominately deep gets us going adding in a mid/taller roaming type in Walker and/or Everitt. That's a hard match-up unit and we need them to come on together as a forward unit and become something for us. A thing to remember for mine with the big units such as MK and Levi playing deep is that they may in fact work better with a Walker or Everitt with pace and height leading up from the square at times also. ot so much Garlett but the harder matchup in Walks and Spider Junior.
It has been an overused line amongst our camp in recent seasons about how footy has moved away from the necessity of having a good tall forward and a CHF. I've always called bullcrap on that and it has exposed us a few too many times.
It had put a huge weight on our small forwards that they couldn't (naturally) always live up to. Ideally your smalls crumb and rove the packs inside forward 50 for opportunistic goals. Not at Carlton. I've felt sick that many times that I'd seen Eddie playing lead up forward.
When our smalls have what is considered a 'quiet' game based on the expectations put on them through a lack of a genuine forward, you'll probably find that a 'quiet' game may be the standard for most smalls around the league with sufficient tall support...because that's what a small forward is supposed to be, a crumbing support act to the tall timber.
I see where flyboy is coming from but I think Gozza is right on the money in my opinion anyway, you still need structure and stability up forward with your two key talls and then does everything else fall into place. Sure you will catch teams out by scoring through other avenues during the season, but finals time has always been big boy time. That doesn't mean they will do all the goal scoring but it's about the flow on effect.
That was actually Betts' strength. He was less effective last year playing a a real crumber.
I do agree that you need a gun key forward though.
Earl Spalding, as many have alluded to before, was no star but played a huge role in the '95 season and flag (34 in the whole season, 1 in the GF).
No reason either of Rowe or Casboult (let alone Hendo, Waite or even the new kid (Giles - 195cm, 95kg) couldn't fill that role?
Spalding was way more mobile than either Rowe or Casboult and despite his weird kicking style he kicked straight more than 50% of the time. Plus he could clunk marks and also hold down CHF and was more than useful as a 2nd ruck option.
The Golf Ball also never hesitated to throw his considerable frame about the place... and his smother (as I've mentioned before) in the 95 GF was a real turning point. Our forward line pressure that day was fantastic.
Setanta had aspects of his game that reminded me of Spalding, if only O'hAilpin had known something(anything) about football!
Agree... if only you could have put Setant's ticker into some other blokes bodies... or had him from a much younger age learning our game!
Setanta could play regardless, the injuries ruined his career.
I am totally with you there flyboy, I reckon and hoping one of the them does step up and plays that role along with Hendo up forward, as I cant see Waite playing a whole season. It's funny you mention the kid Giles as well, I was thinking the other day that he might not be a bad option as a 3rd tall at this stage up forward or down back, maybe not early on but as the season progresses he may come into the fray.
My opinion, Ratten was largely to blame, never let the guy settle anywhere, Could have filled any of the KPP spots (any of four ;) )
In fact, he simply wasn't good enough. At the time, he was one of our best forward options but that was because we were crap. His failure to make any impression at GWS confirmed how bad we were.
You are basing that opinion on what exactly?
He showed on numerous occasions that he could win the contest in a KPP role.
Saying " he simply wasn't good enough' is a cheap cop out. imo.
So it looks like we're going to lose our 2013 and 2014 leading goal kickers after losing our 2012 leading goal kicker last year.
Who will be 2015's leading goal kickers?
Menzel 8)