Princes Park => Robert Heatley Stand => Topic started by: madbluboy on February 06, 2026, 09:53:57 am
Poll
Question: Where will we finish?
Option 1: 1-3
votes: 2
Option 2: 4-6
votes: 4
Option 3: 7-9
votes: 6
Option 4: 10-12
votes: 12
Option 5: 13-15
votes: 5
Option 6: 16-18
votes: 1
Title: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: madbluboy on February 06, 2026, 09:53:57 am
Well?
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 06, 2026, 09:58:01 am
I picked 7-9, which is what I have picked for several years. These types of guesses are driven more by personality, temperament, biases etc. than anything else. Even if we won the flag in 2025 I'd still pick that range.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 06, 2026, 10:07:37 am
My range is way bigger than this, so Im going to pick something silly.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 10:30:34 am
I've gone for the 10-12 option...but I'm thinking more in terms of around 8 to12 mark.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 06, 2026, 10:43:05 am
Best way to look at that is who will be worse than us?
From the bottom 3 last year... Both Tigers and North are predicted to rise. Eagles, less so.
Who will drop?
Melbourne seem to be on the slide as much as us. Maybe Essendon, but i'm sure they think they are top 4.
Definitely possible. More possible than most will admit.
Missing finals will be the end of Vossy.
You might be right but it’s back to the ol merry go round isn’t it ? Given the instability is it “right” to judge Voss on finals…? I’d say not but I’m not loud and vocal.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 01:46:25 pm
You might be right but it’s back to the ol merry go round isn’t it ? Given the instability is it “right” to judge Voss on finals…? I’d say not but I’m not loud and vocal.
One hopes that if it gets to that point, then Davies, Wright et al are able to correctly identify the issues, able to identify if there are deficiencies in Voss' coaching, and are able to determine whether those issues are rectifiable in a sensible time frame, or whether they're not. Not just capitulation to external pressures, change for change's sake etc. The club has for too long worn the "impatient" label like a badge of honor, and not the delusional, revisionist nonsense that it really is.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 02:22:57 pm
I think it's important to remember that were the results to go poorly next year that we wouldn't be 'sacking' Voss. We just wouldn't be extending his contract. It's a subtle difference. But it plays into the narrative that we "honoured the contract" until the end.
Now if we are to extend him, it's doubtful it would be for just a single year. Because that shows little faith in the coach. It would need to be a multi-year deal.
So from that point of view our finishing position is important for Voss's future. A bottom four finish would have him at long odds to be re-contracted. It get's harder for the club to let him go the higher the ladder finishing postion.
There is an unknown factor here. Has someone been spoken to about the position for 2027 and said, yes, but they need a year off in 2026, or stated that they will wait to make decision when the position becomes vacant,
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on February 06, 2026, 02:27:49 pm
10-12 Finish in 2026 Voss not recontracted. Simpson the new coach, who then leads us to the bottom four and another rebuild from the ground up before he is sacked after two years and gets another McDonalds franchise with the payout.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 06, 2026, 02:45:08 pm
13th -15th i picked but i think the lower end of that scale as long as we get an ok run with injuries.
For example lose the likes of both Harry and Weiters for an extended period and apart from WC i cant see us beating anyone
Reckon Port, Melb and St kilda will all jump over us this year while Richmond and North will be closer to us as well - remembering both those 2 bottom teams beat us last year when our side was on paper stronger and both their lists are still young and building so both of their natural improvement will make beating them harder this year.
Voss will quit by mid season - nothing surer. Pressure will be too much with the wins column going backwards again from last year - Horse will be the new messiah. Lock it in
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: cookie2 on February 06, 2026, 03:32:32 pm
Not clear to me yet where we’re likely to end up as l’m not clear on exactly what was at the root of our problems last year and whether or not we’ve effectively addressed them. I’m running on hope for this year that we could make finals. We’ll get a better idea soon enough.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 06, 2026, 03:44:54 pm
I think it's also worth mentioning that the off field appointments outside the coach can make a real difference. I don't wish to start another Neil Balme discussion (we've had plenty of those), merely to point out that we can see in cases like Richmond and Adelaide, sometimes these types can give a nudge in the right direction that make a big difference. Hopefully Wright or Davies (or both) can fulfill that Balme-type role for us.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 04:05:27 pm
Best way to look at that is who will be worse than us?
From the bottom 3 last year... Both Tigers and North are predicted to rise. Eagles, less so.
Who will drop?
Melbourne seem to be on the slide as much as us. Maybe Essendon, but i'm sure they think they are top 4.
Definitely possible. More possible than most will admit.
Missing finals will be the end of Vossy.
Quite possibly....and thats probably unfair since he lost a lot of talent in the offseason.
But, no point saving him if we haven't got a better coach to replace him.
Based on our previous coaching appointments, I'm not sure 'who' or more accurately, 'what' type we would be targetting. We've had the favourite son. We've had the messiah. We've had the young up and comer. We've had the players favourite. We've had the redemption after an extended apprenticeship.
Whats left?
Playing coach?? Get Daisy Pearce or Erin Phillips???
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 06, 2026, 04:15:12 pm
I think we've been caught napping by being too coach-centric, which in itself is old school thinking.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 04:49:43 pm
I'll preface this by saying I think we'll improve our ladder position next year and I think as a result Voss may be offered a new contract.
The reality though is that if we were to say finish bottom 4 how could the club possibly justify re-contracting him.
You can get away with one year, and a shocking run with injuries. You can probably get away with a second year of injuries and turmoil. I'm not sure you get away with a third year, especially if the bottom drops out of the place.
Yes, we've lost key players but as has been pointed out often, their 2025 seasons all presented with issues that saw them at less than their best.
Curnow's departure has been seen as due in part to his injury situation being mis-managed, and being forced to play against better judgement. Who is responsible for that? What was the issue with Silvagni. Was he fully on-board with the club's on-field direction. Kennedy's departure the year before has been attributed to a conflict of sorts with Voss. The overall tone of the place last year, seemed to be a team with divisions. And while not totally responsible, the coach surely has some impact on team unity and getting everyone on the same page.
It's pretty apparent that Voss may not be everyone's cup of tea. The hope is that the players reamaining do have a bit of respect for his approach, and understanding of the direction Voss has for 2026, and we see good, consistent efforts. Even a mid-table finish may be enough if there is enough positivity, and improvement in many players. But if it goes pear shaped (bottom 4) the ending will be pretty predictable...and pretty much the right one.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 04:57:31 pm
@Lods... To paraphrase Malthouse - The 22 blokes in the team love you. The 23rd bloke hates you.
Every coach has its detractors. IF that has anything to do with the reason any of them left.....maybe Kennedy aside.....but maybe we needed to mix it up and he was 4th banana.....and oldest behind Cripps.
So i wouldn't put too much stock in 'the coach has lost the players' cliche.
Plenty of other players could've left, but haven't.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: northernblue on February 06, 2026, 05:23:15 pm
@Lods So we judge Voss on a year with a fractured group and injuries and then a year without the fractured individuals (hopefully they’re all gone…) and lesser credentialed replacements ? Seems like old Carlton to me…
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 05:25:57 pm
@Lods... To paraphrase Malthouse - The 22 blokes in the team love you. The 23rd bloke hates you.
Every coach has its detractors. IF that has anything to do with the reason any of them left.....maybe Kennedy aside.....but maybe we needed to mix it up and he was 4th banana.....and oldest behind Cripps.
So i wouldn't put too much stock in 'the coach has lost the players' cliche.
Plenty of other players could've left, but haven't.
I never said the coach has lost the players. I'm not sure where you got that from. All the noise at the moment is of a committed group with some new players fitting in very well. I expect a good year, from both players and coach....but the old "proof of the pudding" cliche still applies.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 05:38:15 pm
@Lods So we judge Voss on a year with a fractured group and injuries and then a year without the fractured individuals (hopefully they’re all gone…) and lesser credentialed replacements ? Seems like old Carlton to me…
No Actually the opposite. 'Old Carlton' would have seen him gone this year. He's now had two years where injury and disruption have affected our performance. But he doesn't want the bottom to fall out of it this year. What I'm saying is, he probably won't get a new contract if we finish bottom 4 this year, That's not old Carlton That's just what will happen.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 05:53:36 pm
@Lods... To paraphrase Malthouse - The 22 blokes in the team love you. The 23rd bloke hates you.
Every coach has its detractors. IF that has anything to do with the reason any of them left.....maybe Kennedy aside.....but maybe we needed to mix it up and he was 4th banana.....and oldest behind Cripps.
So i wouldn't put too much stock in 'the coach has lost the players' cliche.
Plenty of other players could've left, but haven't.
I never said the coach has lost the players. I'm not sure where you got that from. All the noise at the moment is of a committed group with some new players fitting in very well. I expect a good year, from both players and coach....but the old "proof of the pudding" cliche still applies.
I was being pre-emptive. You haven't said it yet......but there will be a time where it becomes gospel (not necessarily from you).
re Orange....thats the downfall right there.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 05:55:32 pm
@Lods So we judge Voss on a year with a fractured group and injuries and then a year without the fractured individuals (hopefully they’re all gone…) and lesser credentialed replacements ? Seems like old Carlton to me…
No Actually the opposite. 'Old Carlton' would have seen him gone this year. He's now had two years where injury and disruption have affected our performance. But he doesn't want the bottom to fall out of it this year. What I'm saying is, he probably won't get a new contract if we finish bottom 4 this year, That's not old Carlton That's just what will happen.
If we kept him this year, there is no reason why we shouldn't keep him next year, even if we drop a couple places on the ladder. Talent available last year > talent available this year......and spare me the 'output' of Curnow etc. excuse. This year it will be some other player that underperfoms.....there always is.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 06:01:04 pm
If we kept him this year, there is no reason why we shouldn't keep him next year, even if we drop a couple places on the ladder. Talent available last year > talent available this year......and spare me the 'output' of Curnow etc. excuse. This year it will be some other player that underperfoms.....there always is.
So what type of contract do you expect him to be offered if we finish bottom 4? Don't forget, it's a new contract.
I expect us to do well and he will get a new contract. Bottom 4 and he won't.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Baggers on February 06, 2026, 06:03:26 pm
No idea where we'll end up on the ladder in 2026. Vossy's tenure is in his, the players and other coaches hands.
Just keen to see how we start 2026. Woo hoo. Go Blues.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 06:25:28 pm
If we kept him this year, there is no reason why we shouldn't keep him next year, even if we drop a couple places on the ladder. Talent available last year > talent available this year......and spare me the 'output' of Curnow etc. excuse. This year it will be some other player that underperfoms.....there always is.
So what type of contract do you expect him to be offered if we finish bottom 4? Don't forget, it's a new contract.
I expect us to do well and he will get a new contract. Bottom 4 and he won't.
I'd just give him 1 year.
...and you're being a bit cheeky by saying bottom 4. I said drop a couple places, 13th is a couple places, 15th is bottom 4. Even then....what have we got to gain by giving him the flick at the end of the year with a sub-par list?
Nobody else is going to pry him away from us. He won't walk out.
He'd back himself in to get better after we have another year of development into our green shoots and hopefully a better off-season talent wise. So why offer anything else?
This is where i differ from most and where i'm misunderstood.
I expect us to drop this year and I am ok with that. I expect us to rise if not the next year, the year after that. People see that as me being negative.....quite the opposite. I'm giving him a grace period and allowing him time to turn it around because i think we're making him coach with 1 arm behind his back this year as the talent isn't there. Last year he got a pass because the talent was injured. This year he'll likely get the flick because the talent is wearing different colours, and that doesn't make sense to me.
Keep him. Get a year into Dean. Get a year into Jagga. Get an extra year into Cowan, Hollands (x2?) Carroll, Campo (x2) and O'keefe. Allow time for incoming players like Florent, Hayward, Ainsworth, Reidy and others like Kemp, O'Farrell to find their feet. Then inject Walker and whoever else we may find.
THEN we will start to rise......but not this year. Too green. Too many changes. Too many holes papered over that can bring down the house of cards too easily.
So be patient, assume this year is a development / write off year and prepare for 2027. With that mindset, the club will be in a better position as supporters won't be reaching for pitchforks after R2 because they EXPECT to do better.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 06, 2026, 06:41:44 pm
So what type of contract do you expect him to be offered if we finish bottom 4? Don't forget, it's a new contract.
I expect us to do well and he will get a new contract. Bottom 4 and he won't.
Matthew Nicks has a worse coaching record than Voss. The Crows have been more successful than us in the last 25 years by a fair margin, and one reason for that is that they don't panic and make knee jerk decisions on the coach. Nicks has not done much to date, but in amongst whatever other changes they made, they brought in Balme in early 2025 and then finished first after finishing 15th in 2024.
I hope the club doesn't just think sacking the coach is the default answer when things go pear shaped. I don't think it's right that a bottom 4 finish means another sacking. The club must be able to figure out what's what.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 07:08:10 pm
So what type of contract do you expect him to be offered if we finish bottom 4? Don't forget, it's a new contract.
I expect us to do well and he will get a new contract. Bottom 4 and he won't.
I'd just give him 1 year.
...and you're being a bit cheeky by saying bottom 4. I said drop a couple places, 13th is a couple places, 15th is bottom 4.
No You're the one changing the goal posts there. I've been arguing all day based around MBB's prediction of a bottom 4 finish.
That's the basis of what I've written. You've come late to the argument.
Giving him one year after a bottom 4 finish is not realistic. Around 13 he may be a chance, but even then a slim one.
One thing we do agree on is that 2027 will be a year where we will be better, but we're bouncing from different starting points. I have us a few places ahead of you this year. And I expect Voss to be the coach.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 07:24:36 pm
...and you're being a bit cheeky by saying bottom 4. I said drop a couple places, 13th is a couple places, 15th is bottom 4.
No You're the one changing the goal posts there. I've been arguing all day based around MBB's prediction of a bottom 4 finish.
That's the basis of what I've written. You've come late to the argument.
Giving him one year after a bottom 4 finish is not realistic. Around 13 he may be a chance, but even then a slim one.
One thing we do agree on is that 2027 will be a year where we will be better, but we're bouncing from different starting points. I have us a few places ahead of you this year. And I expect Voss to be the coach.
You literally quoted me in a post where i said 'drop a couple' positions....so thats what i was responding too.
It doesn't matter.
Giving him a 1 year deal if we finish bottom 4 is not realistic.....in your eyes. I, and some others, will disagree.
If i was the one who was making the call, i'd come out and give him a year now and say that.... "Whilst we will not be putting a ceiling on this year, we are mindful of some big changes in the off-season. This year will be a year of transition and with a bit of luck, the transition will be completed before Round 1, but more than likely some further time will be required. We are not conceding anything, but we are also mindful that unrealistic expectations can lead to unneccesary knee jerk reactions. Its for this reason that we want Vossy to develop this team for sustained success and not have to worry about if he has a job each week"
Puts it all out there. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 07:36:56 pm
No You're the one changing the goal posts there. I've been arguing all day based around MBB's prediction of a bottom 4 finish.
That's the basis of what I've written. You've come late to the argument.
Giving him one year after a bottom 4 finish is not realistic. Around 13 he may be a chance, but even then a slim one.
One thing we do agree on is that 2027 will be a year where we will be better, but we're bouncing from different starting points. I have us a few places ahead of you this year. And I expect Voss to be the coach.
You literally quoted me in a post where i said 'drop a couple' positions....so thats what i was responding too.
It doesn't matter.
Giving him a 1 year deal if we finish bottom 4 is not realistic.....in your eyes. I, and some others, will disagree.
If i was the one who was making the call, i'd come out and give him a year now and say that.... "Whilst we will not be a ceiling on this year, we are mindful of some big changes in the off-season. This year will be a year of transition and with a bit of luck, the transition will be completed before Round 1, but more than likely some further time will be required. We are not conceding anything, but we are also mindful that unrealistic expectations can lead to unneccesary knee jerk reactions. Its for this reason that we want Vossy to develop this team for sustained success and not have to worry about if he has a job each week"
Puts it all out there. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
I actually think that's a better idea. Give him the two years now. And emphasise the tranistional nature of this year....because I think even the most optimistic of us don't see us going deep into the finals. Improving yes, but not dramtically.
If we do go really low on the ladder that extra year becomes a much harder sell at the end of the year.
The two problems I see are - we're getting some really positive messages out of the club, rather than dampening expectaions they're raising them. - have we already sounded someone out for 2027 and are keeping our powder dry to see what eventuates. (the club isn't seen to be sacking a coach prior to contract end, but has someone lined up once Voss's contract finishes.)
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 06, 2026, 07:43:38 pm
You literally quoted me in a post where i said 'drop a couple' positions....so thats what i was responding too.
It doesn't matter.
Giving him a 1 year deal if we finish bottom 4 is not realistic.....in your eyes. I, and some others, will disagree.
If i was the one who was making the call, i'd come out and give him a year now and say that.... "Whilst we will not be a ceiling on this year, we are mindful of some big changes in the off-season. This year will be a year of transition and with a bit of luck, the transition will be completed before Round 1, but more than likely some further time will be required. We are not conceding anything, but we are also mindful that unrealistic expectations can lead to unneccesary knee jerk reactions. Its for this reason that we want Vossy to develop this team for sustained success and not have to worry about if he has a job each week"
Puts it all out there. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
I actually think that's a better idea. Give him the two years now. And emphasise the tranistional nature of this year....because I think even the most optimistic of us don't see us going deep into the finals. Improving yes, but not dramtically.
If we do go really low on the ladder that extra year becomes a much harder sell at the end of the year.
The two problems I see are - we're getting some really positive messages out of the club, rather than dampening expectaions they're raising them. - have we already sounded someone out for 2027 and are keeping our powder dry to see what eventuates. (the club isn't seen to be sacking a coach prior to contract end, but has someone lined up once Voss's contract finishes.)
He is contracted for 2026 already, i am suggesting adding 2027 now.
Are you suggesting adding in 2028 also??
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Professer E on February 06, 2026, 07:45:11 pm
Ive got zero predictive capability but I have a hunch we'll finish above the sniffers and Toss will be under a LOT of pressure as a result.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 06, 2026, 08:40:10 pm
I actually think that's a better idea. Give him the two years now. And emphasise the tranistional nature of this year....because I think even the most optimistic of us don't see us going deep into the finals. Improving yes, but not dramtically.
If we do go really low on the ladder that extra year becomes a much harder sell at the end of the year.
The two problems I see are - we're getting some really positive messages out of the club, rather than dampening expectaions they're raising them. - have we already sounded someone out for 2027 and are keeping our powder dry to see what eventuates. (the club isn't seen to be sacking a coach prior to contract end, but has someone lined up once Voss's contract finishes.)
He is contracted for 2026 already, i am suggesting adding 2027 now.
Are you suggesting adding in 2028 also??
No I'm agreeing with you. Just the extra year -2027 A one year extension, but don't wait to do it. If we wait to do it 2026 results become a factor.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 06, 2026, 10:08:29 pm
I went 4 to 6.
If you can dream, then dream out loud.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: northernblue on February 07, 2026, 12:02:52 am
I actually think that's a better idea. Give him the two years now. And emphasise the tranistional nature of this year....because I think even the most optimistic of us don't see us going deep into the finals. Improving yes, but not dramtically.
If we do go really low on the ladder that extra year becomes a much harder sell at the end of the year.
The two problems I see are - we're getting some really positive messages out of the club, rather than dampening expectaions they're raising them. - have we already sounded someone out for 2027 and are keeping our powder dry to see what eventuates. (the club isn't seen to be sacking a coach prior to contract end, but has someone lined up once Voss's contract finishes.)
He is contracted for 2026 already, i am suggesting adding 2027 now.
Are you suggesting adding in 2028 also??
Unless they think we can do well in our first 4-8 games and want to make an announcement then…? Be smarter to do it now.
I can sorta understand but don’t agree with the decision to allow Voss to coach into 26 but I think tactically they’ve missed the chance to make this 12 month extension. Maybe if Davies was on board earlier it may have happened this way Krudds.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 07, 2026, 07:21:37 am
He is contracted for 2026 already, i am suggesting adding 2027 now.
Are you suggesting adding in 2028 also??
Unless they think we can do well in our first 4-8 games and want to make an announcement then…? Be smarter to do it now.
I can sorta understand but don’t agree with the decision to allow Voss to coach into 26 but I think tactically they’ve missed the chance to make this 12 month extension. Maybe if Davies was on board earlier it may have happened this way Krudds.
I was fine with voss getting the right to coach or his contract. Either way, once we showed him to stay and we cut the list the way we did, the only fair thing to do is give him the extra year. The expectations from supporters and media alike will fixate on his contract to the detriment of the club. So contract him and get that our of the equation.
I don't expect results to be favourable early on, so dint risk it. Sign him now.
This sound also help with talent aquisition as the unknown about who will coach is removed.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Baggers on February 07, 2026, 08:13:21 am
Unless they think we can do well in our first 4-8 games and want to make an announcement then…? Be smarter to do it now.
I can sorta understand but don’t agree with the decision to allow Voss to coach into 26 but I think tactically they’ve missed the chance to make this 12 month extension. Maybe if Davies was on board earlier it may have happened this way Krudds.
I was fine with voss getting the right to coach or his contract. Either way, once we showed him to stay and we cut the list the way we did, the only fair thing to do is give him the extra year. The expectations from supporters and media alike will fixate on his contract to the detriment of the club. So contract him and get that our of the equation.
I don't expect results to be favourable early on, so dint risk it. Sign him now.
This sound also help with talent aquisition as the unknown about who will coach is removed.
Coaching extensions are given on positive performance and good results, not hope, whims and goodwill. Extensions are a deserved reward.
At the JNM Vossy -- testament to his character -- admitted he'd failed the club in 2025. To the club's credit, they stuck with him into 2026 - definitely NOT old Carlton. He's been given the opportunity to SHOW he can do much better. So, any talk of contract extensions should be on hold until he proves he can do just that.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 07, 2026, 10:19:52 am
In 2025, I would have conducted a sense check with a particular emphasis on the medium term future, and all being well I would have given Voss an extension into 2027, with an option for 2028 if 2027 results warrant it.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 07, 2026, 10:51:09 am
One of the problems is that we're looking at things from a distance.
We don't see the interactions between coaches and players. We don't get feedback from the players. We don't get an up-close idea of roles the players are assigned and their responses. We can't get in the head of those who are making decisions on coaching future. Are they confident they have the right man, or are they just letting him see out a contract before their preferred coaching choices become available?
The last two years we've had significant issues, particularly in the area of injuries and player continuity. As a result it's hard for us to make a judgement on the coach's performance ...other than on field results, and ladder position. And they haven't been good.
I agree with Kruddler that a show of faith would be to add that extra year to the existing contract...and state that it's a two year work in progress, with the real test coming during season 2027. But the time to do that is fast running out, and so far they've chosen not to go down that path.
Coach changes are nearly always results driven. But if you're confident you have the right man you can stick with them a little longer. But because some clubs have success with that approach it doesn't necessarily apply to other clubs. Recognising you don't have the right person is above our pay grade...mostly because we don't have access to players and feedback. Recognising the right time to make a change is a difficult judgement.
So at the moment Voss is in the deep end without a life jacket. Sink or swim. He will be under pressure. It will be a topic of discussion. It may end up being a distraction The only way to prevent that (if they're not going to extend him pre-season) is to win more than he loses.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 07, 2026, 10:55:23 am
A professional sporting organization is a complex system, with an array of moving parts and relationships. I don't think one needs to look too far to see that the idea of a direct and simplistic causal link between coach and results is flawed.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 07, 2026, 11:04:59 am
I was somewhat heartened by last year's decision to stick with Voss, although I would not credit the club too much because IMO it was a fairly obvious decision to make. One can only hope that this represents another step in the continued evolution of the club to a modem, professional outfit, and not just a blip on the radar before we revert to type.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 07, 2026, 11:10:13 am
A professional sporting organization is a complex system, with an array of moving parts and relationships. I don't think one needs to look too far to see that the idea of a direct and simplistic causal link between coach and results is flawed.
Which is essentially what I'm saying. We don't have the information to make that judgement other than win-loss and ladder position.
Those that do, will make that call (or not make it ) based on a lot more than results. And when and if they do, we should accept that it's been made with a whole lot more information than we possess. Not just because "It's the old Carlton way". That's a cliche that has no bearing to the very different make-up of the current regime.
We want and need a coach who can impact and get the side combining to the best of their ability. It's actually a challenge for Voss...and one that could enhance his reputation if he can get a good season despite the loss of a few key players.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 07, 2026, 11:21:22 am
Unless they think we can do well in our first 4-8 games and want to make an announcement then…? Be smarter to do it now.
I can sorta understand but don’t agree with the decision to allow Voss to coach into 26 but I think tactically they’ve missed the chance to make this 12 month extension. Maybe if Davies was on board earlier it may have happened this way Krudds.
I was fine with voss getting the right to coach or his contract. Either way, once we showed him to stay and we cut the list the way we did, the only fair thing to do is give him the extra year. The expectations from supporters and media alike will fixate on his contract to the detriment of the club. So contract him and get that our of the equation.
I don't expect results to be favourable early on, so dint risk it. Sign him now.
This sound also help with talent aquisition as the unknown about who will coach is removed.
All this extension talk is based imo off one critical point which has not been mentioned.... Can Voss coach ?
My personal thoughts lean more towards no then yes so imo (provided we get an ok run with injuries) unless we 'improve' this year despite the list on paper being weaker but hopefully healthier then last year the board and fan confidence in Voss being the man wont be there.
The coaching landscape is one that very few are given extensions unless they have runs on the board (Voss doesnt) or there team is improving - you could argue this is not happening for a host of reasons.
I cant see him surviving and dont think he should if we have another poor year. He has had a decent tenure in a results based industry and this will be his last year if he is seen to fail again.
With a fit list i think the club will be expecting finals action and missing it again will be the end of Voss
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 07, 2026, 11:22:49 am
Which is essentially what I'm saying. We don't have the information to make that judgement other than win-loss and ladder position.
Those that do, will make that call (or not make it ) based on a lot more than results. And when and if they do, we should accept that it's been made with a whole lot more information than we possess. Not just because "It's the old Carlton way". That's a cliche that has no bearing to the current, very different make-up of the current regime.
We want and need a coach who can impact and get the side combining to the best of their ability. It's actually a challenge for Voss...and one that could enhance his reputation if he can get a good season despite the loss of a few key players.
No question that the various stakeholders inside the 4 walls have plenty of experience and access to data that we can only dream about. This is beyond dispute. But the process of moving from data analysis to decision making is not pure. It should be, but it isn't. Leaving aside the fact that those looking at the data may be incompetent, pressed for time, did not conduct the date gathering properly etc., the bigger issue is that vested interests and power asymmetries can result in decisions that don't reflect the data. Board members who have sway and force an outcome contrary to the data, angry supporters who demand change without really knowing the facts etc. These types of issues unfortunately can have a major impact on the club's direction, and not for the better.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 07, 2026, 12:06:57 pm
@ Lods and @ PaulP You make excellent, logical points. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Carlton supporters don't see it this way, they only things they see are: 1. The fact that we haven't won a premiership in 31 years. 2. Playing finals every year. 3. Ladder Position (improvement year on year). The above are all fine as expectations for fans and the club, the problem with our club has been that the same person has copped the blame for it every time they have been met (by fans and the club), the coach. There are a host of reasons for the above three key objectives being met/not met. What's important is that those administering the club properly analyse those reasons and act on rectifying them in a measured way. Whether it's the coach, high performance, injuries, players not adhering to club mandates etc, I care not, as long as it's dealt with properly and professionally. Over the years, I have felt that the club as acted on the of whim the supporter base and the media. I'd like to think with the recent appointments of those in charge, that has now changed.
I'll just add this on coaching, IMO there isn't a hell of lot of difference between all the coaches and games styles these days, I personally think the key to success is the right mix of talent, experience, workmanlike role players, the cohesion of the all the above and consistent availability of the above.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 07, 2026, 12:17:44 pm
I can see a situation where the coach isnt winning and then retains his position. Its all about how they go about doing their job, and how we are doing.
If the wheels are falling off, then its bad, but if we are competitive but not quite displaying the ability to secure 4 points then he can probably keep the job regardless of results.
Sometimes there's more to it than the end result which is what coaches get judged on.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 07, 2026, 12:24:12 pm
@ Lods and @ PaulP You make excellent, logical points. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Carlton supporters don't see it this way, they only things they see are: 1. The fact that we haven't won a premiership in 31 years. 2. Playing finals every year. 3. Ladder Position (improvement year on year). The above are all fine as expectations for fans and the club, the problem with our club has been that the same person has copped the blame for it every time they have been met (by fans and the club), the coach. There are a host of reasons for the above three key objectives being met/not met. What's important is that those administering the club properly analyse those reasons and act on rectifying them in a measured way. Whether it's the coach, high performance, injuries, players not adhering to club mandates etc, I care not, as long as it's dealt with properly and professionally. Over the years, I have felt that the club as acted on the of whim the supporter base and the media. I'd like to think with the recent appointments of those in charge, that has now changed.
I'll just add this on coaching, IMO there isn't a hell of lot of difference between all the coaches and games styles these days, I personally think the key to success is the right mix of talent, experience, workmanlike role players, the cohesion of the all the above and consistent availability of the above.
Yes agreed. The best chance of getting it right is to have good decision makers with access to good data, free of undue interference.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: madbluboy on February 07, 2026, 01:00:15 pm
I think he has been set up to fail. Can't see him coaching the whole season if we have a poor start. Drop a game to North or Richmond or both without getting any.upset wins then he is gone.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 07, 2026, 01:03:47 pm
It may not be ideal but those external forces do have an impact. As much as we would like it not to be the case, it's a factor that can't always be completely ignored. Memberships and Sponsorships have a financial impact. And on-field success feeds into that support.
In a period where a club is struggling on-field there comes a point where a club needs to "be seen to be doing something different." "Staying the course" only works for a short time before the pressure gets too great and you have things like challenges to the club structure, and more upheaval. It's a balancing act.
So we've made some changes to the CEO position, the head of football, changed a few of the assistant coaches, made some changes to the list.
If the changes don't bring some on-field success then where do we go from there...and the next step is "things that haven't been changed"...yet.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 07, 2026, 01:16:36 pm
I can see a situation where the coach isnt winning and then retains his position. Its all about how they go about doing their job, and how we are doing.
If the wheels are falling off, then its bad, but if we are competitive but not quite displaying the ability to secure 4 points then he can probably keep the job regardless of results.
Sometimes there's more to it than the end result which is what coaches get judged on.
la la land mate. Its a performance based industry.
While many say its wrong to look too far back when making current day decisions the fact is the supporters members sponsors etc are starved of success and have been very very patient. Most are all tired of all talk all the waiting all the spin. Voss has had a decent block to impress with what many think was a decent list - we had one good (a tad lucky) finals run in his tenure and that is simply not good enough despite the wrath of excuses the Voss believers want to throw up.
Its finals as a min in 2026 or he is gonski.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 07, 2026, 01:25:51 pm
He's coached 4 full years and in year 5 we set him up to fail? He has had one successful season with us.
Prior he coached Brisbane for 4 and half years won an EF in year one and then had 3 and half poor seasons after.
Hardly a glowing resume.
We have lost a number of senior players the last 2 years and replaced them with kids for the most part. List management is looking to the future and have closed this era prematurely. That's not on Voss..
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 07, 2026, 01:38:14 pm
He's coached 4 full years and in year 5 we set him up to fail? He has had one successful season with us.
Prior he coached Brisbane for 4 and half years won an EF in year one and then had 3 and half poor seasons after.
Hardly a glowing resume.
We have lost a number of senior players the last 2 years and replaced them with kids for the most part. List management is looking to the future and have closed this era prematurely. That's not on Voss..
Who are the senior player lost in the last 2 years and replaced with kids?
Charlie and TDK are big loses but he had them for the past 4 years.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: LP on February 07, 2026, 01:44:18 pm
I spent time on this forum and others listening to fans spend most of the last couple of seasons complaining about the lack of performance and consistency from the likes of Curnow and TDK, punctuated by glimpses of genuine capability, now that they are gone they are all of a sudden irreplaceable.
Weathervanes come to mind!
Both players come to mind as examples of huge potential and capability, but I'm not going to sell anybody on their consistency, the players we've lost are about as far away from the 24x7 level of a fit Cripps or Walsh, as Cliffy Young is from Phar Lap in a sprint!
We don't have enough 24x7 types to be carrying too many part-timers, and they are big dollar part-timers. If Curnow, TDK and SoJ were 24x7 types, on the park week after week delivering at a consistent level, even consistent at a good ordinary level like a Hewett or an Evans, I'd be more upset. But they weren't, and that is probably a big reason why we didn't stand in their way!
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: madbluboy on February 07, 2026, 02:05:05 pm
Are the fans the same fans LP?
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 07, 2026, 02:18:34 pm
I spent time on this forum and others listening to fans spend most of the last couple of seasons complaining about the lack of performance and consistency from the likes of Curnow and TDK, punctuated by glimpses of genuine capability, now that they are gone they are all of a sudden irreplaceable.
Certainly not irreplaceable. But put simply, we didn't replace them. Big difference.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on February 07, 2026, 03:47:28 pm
Voss hasnt changed since his Brisbane days, same game plan, same player exodus issues and Daniel Bradshaw was reincarnated as Matt Kennedy before he received his holy marching orders and was excommunicated from the flock . Its Dejavu so far with only the ending to come, will it be any different than 2013? I have noticed that a few of the Voss and List spruikers are now lowering the bar and happy to accept missing finals in 2026, what happened to the new improved list, new football manager and new director of coaching? Surely there are no more excuses? I have spent the last few months reading on the forum how TDK, Charlie and Jacks leaving was a blessing and they were holding back the club and how the new players have made us a much better team but that all seems to be changing since we are getting closer to the first round and those ultra positive supporters caught up in the hype are now in full retreat...
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 07, 2026, 04:10:17 pm
I can see a situation where the coach isnt winning and then retains his position. Its all about how they go about doing their job, and how we are doing.
If the wheels are falling off, then its bad, but if we are competitive but not quite displaying the ability to secure 4 points then he can probably keep the job regardless of results.
Sometimes there's more to it than the end result which is what coaches get judged on.
la la land mate. Its a performance based industry.
While many say its wrong to look too far back when making current day decisions the fact is the supporters members sponsors etc are starved of success and have been very very patient. Most are all tired of all talk all the waiting all the spin. Voss has had a decent block to impress with what many think was a decent list - we had one good (a tad lucky) finals run in his tenure and that is simply not good enough despite the wrath of excuses the Voss believers want to throw up.
Its finals as a min in 2026 or he is gonski.
Performance or result? You can play poorly and get a result, and you can play well and not get the result.
The two are often correlated but they dont always.
The question i have is, will changes guarantee any outcome other than change?
If we arent expected to win, but fall short against sydney by less than a kick, is it a fail?
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 07, 2026, 04:18:41 pm
Voss hasnt changed since his Brisbane days, same game plan, same player exodus issues and Daniel Bradshaw was reincarnated as Matt Kennedy before he received his holy marching orders and was excommunicated from the flock . Its Dejavu so far with only the ending to come, will it be any different than 2013? I have noticed that a few of the Voss and List spruikers are now lowering the bar and happy to accept missing finals in 2026, what happened to the new improved list, new football manager and new director of coaching? Surely there are no more excuses? I have spent the last few months reading on the forum how TDK, Charlie and Jacks leaving was a blessing and they were holding back the club and how the new players have made us a much better team but that all seems to be changing since we are getting closer to the first round and those ultra positive supporters caught up in the hype are now in full retreat...
I think you've misread some of the positivity. I don't think too many were suggesting flags or even top 4. It was more a case of around the same mark...11th or a couple of spots better. Now even one spot higher (10th) and we're playing finals in 2026.
What people were saying is we don't need to drop dramatically as some of the doomsayers were predicting.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on February 07, 2026, 04:32:18 pm
Voss hasnt changed since his Brisbane days, same game plan, same player exodus issues and Daniel Bradshaw was reincarnated as Matt Kennedy before he received his holy marching orders and was excommunicated from the flock . Its Dejavu so far with only the ending to come, will it be any different than 2013? I have noticed that a few of the Voss and List spruikers are now lowering the bar and happy to accept missing finals in 2026, what happened to the new improved list, new football manager and new director of coaching? Surely there are no more excuses? I have spent the last few months reading on the forum how TDK, Charlie and Jacks leaving was a blessing and they were holding back the club and how the new players have made us a much better team but that all seems to be changing since we are getting closer to the first round and those ultra positive supporters caught up in the hype are now in full retreat...
I think you've misread some of the positivity. I don't think too many were suggesting flags or even top 4. It was more a case of around the same mark...11th or a couple of spots better. Now even one spot higher (10th) and we're playing finals in 2026.
What people were saying is we don't need to drop dramatically as some of the doomsayers were predicting.
If the List was improved as was/is the support staff surely then the results have to improve ie win/loss ratio?....the new mickey mouse( nearly everyone plays finals format) doesnt count for me as I said it all about wins/losses and genuine improvement. No one is expecting premierships or top 4 but the bar cant be 10 or 11, its got to be top 8 after a serious rebuild. There has to be a level of accountability after 5 years in the job and your second stint as an AFL senior coach imo where you should have the experience to deliver more than what we have seen so far.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 07, 2026, 04:40:31 pm
I think you've misread some of the positivity. I don't think too many were suggesting flags or even top 4. It was more a case of around the same mark...11th or a couple of spots better. Now even one spot higher (10th) and we're playing finals in 2026.
What people were saying is we don't need to drop dramatically as some of the doomsayers were predicting.
If the List was improved as was/is the support staff surely then the results have to improve ie win/loss ratio?....the new mickey mouse( nearly everyone plays finals format) doesnt count for me as I said it all about wins/losses and genuine improvement. No one is expecting premierships or top 4 but the bar cant be 10 or 11, its got to be top 8 after a serious rebuild. There has to be a level of accountability after 5 years in the job and your second stint as an AFL senior coach imo where you should have the experience to deliver more than what we have seen so far.
For me top 8 would be slightly above expectations. It would be hard to not renew Voss at that level (unless we lost our wild-card game) ::)
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: LP on February 07, 2026, 05:44:24 pm
AFL is a different competition now, you can play OK for 2/3rds of the season and win a flag, you just need to get the timing right.
To me this is a fundamental change in the way you have to go about measuring yourself against the competition, you can flirt with form nursing the squad through the season, and just get it ripe and loaded for 2 or 3 games at the end.
What you can't do anymore is the MM type full season grind, you'll run out of legs, you have to find ways to lighten the load periodically and still be in a position to win. I don't care that we've Cripps and Walsh, until I can see an alternative to the heavily contested style my jury is out on Voss, our MC needs to find a way to win without those guys or without the heavy contest week in and week out. Playing that game style relentlessly just because they are the best at it is dumb!
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on February 07, 2026, 05:50:44 pm
If the List was improved as was/is the support staff surely then the results have to improve ie win/loss ratio?....the new mickey mouse( nearly everyone plays finals format) doesnt count for me as I said it all about wins/losses and genuine improvement. No one is expecting premierships or top 4 but the bar cant be 10 or 11, its got to be top 8 after a serious rebuild. There has to be a level of accountability after 5 years in the job and your second stint as an AFL senior coach imo where you should have the experience to deliver more than what we have seen so far.
For me top 8 would be slightly above expectations. It would be hard to not renew Voss at that level (unless we lost our wild-card game) ::)
I would view a top 8 finish as renewal consideration for two years and I would be expecting 10-12 wins which is a reasonable target imho given we won nine games last season. Im not expecting miracles just a level of improvement, of course as we all know in these situations there may only be a 12 game period for Voss to be judged as clubs start looking and talking to prospective replacements as early as mid season to secure their first choices so its imperative for Voss that the players start the season well and he has a positive win/loss ratio leading into the mid season break as its often too late even with back end of the season wins to save your job.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 07, 2026, 07:42:54 pm
la la land mate. Its a performance based industry.
While many say its wrong to look too far back when making current day decisions the fact is the supporters members sponsors etc are starved of success and have been very very patient. Most are all tired of all talk all the waiting all the spin. Voss has had a decent block to impress with what many think was a decent list - we had one good (a tad lucky) finals run in his tenure and that is simply not good enough despite the wrath of excuses the Voss believers want to throw up.
Its finals as a min in 2026 or he is gonski.
Performance or result? You can play poorly and get a result, and you can play well and not get the result.
The two are often correlated but they dont always.
The question i have is, will changes guarantee any outcome other than change?
If we arent expected to win, but fall short against sydney by less than a kick, is it a fail?
Nope not good enough. a loss is a fail simple as that.
Arent you tired of honourable loses?
We were accustomed to accept them in the bolton green shoots years.
this list is not young and while i dont believe its good enough to push the best teams imo we cant just keep accepting mediocrity.
The best teams never do.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 07, 2026, 10:52:15 pm
Performance or result? You can play poorly and get a result, and you can play well and not get the result.
The two are often correlated but they dont always.
The question i have is, will changes guarantee any outcome other than change?
If we arent expected to win, but fall short against sydney by less than a kick, is it a fail?
Nope not good enough. a loss is a fail simple as that.
Arent you tired of honourable loses?
We were accustomed to accept them in the bolton green shoots years.
this list is not young and while i dont believe its good enough to push the best teams imo we cant just keep accepting mediocrity.
The best teams never do.
last time I got tired of honourable losses we started getting thrashed instead.
For me, the result is an outcome. Only one team can win.
The how they perform is the input.
For you its results. Out or else. I respect that.
I just see it differently. Jurgen klopp coached liverpool from 2015 to 2024. During those 9 years, the team won one premiership. They achieved a lot outside winning those titles. He was beaten to the premiership on no less than 4 occasions by a team that simply got better results and was better resourced. He potentially would tweak a thing or two to try change it if you asked him, but as a fan, he was remarkable as a coach despite not winning it all.
Don't let impatience get the better of you.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Baggers on February 08, 2026, 09:10:57 am
Voss hasnt changed since his Brisbane days, same game plan, same player exodus issues and Daniel Bradshaw was reincarnated as Matt Kennedy before he received his holy marching orders and was excommunicated from the flock . Its Dejavu so far with only the ending to come, will it be any different than 2013? I have noticed that a few of the Voss and List spruikers are now lowering the bar and happy to accept missing finals in 2026, what happened to the new improved list, new football manager and new director of coaching? Surely there are no more excuses? I have spent the last few months reading on the forum how TDK, Charlie and Jacks leaving was a blessing and they were holding back the club and how the new players have made us a much better team but that all seems to be changing since we are getting closer to the first round and those ultra positive supporters caught up in the hype are now in full retreat...
This optimistic supporter is not in full retreat, EB1 old son. Nuh. Not bullish though. Powder dry, kind of optimistic... sprinkled with an acknowledgement of the unknown. And that's what we are now, somewhat an unknown entity due to strong change in personnel and what will be a change in some aspects of our game plan.
Our weakness under Vossy is as you point out - "contest and pressure is all you need, then kick it to the two tall forwards and everything will magically fall into place."
Change has been forced upon us with the departure of 'the three.' It seems we've adapted to that change well... got some leg speed, disposal skills and a multi-dimensional forward set up.
Though not in the prediction business, I would not be at all surprised to see us jump up the ladder and be a much better side than last year. In fact, I renewed my membership optimistically!
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 08, 2026, 09:45:10 am
It's interesting looking at the poll We've had the "Chicken little" predictions and some "pie in the sky" predictions over the off-season, but inthe end mostly we're settling into expecting a ladder position that is either a few spots up or a few spots down from 2025
And those sort of fluctuations will almost solely be determined by luck and injury.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 08, 2026, 11:14:16 am
It's interesting looking at the poll We've had the "Chicken little" predictions and some "pie in the sky" predictions over the off-season, but inthe end mostly we're settling into expecting a ladder position that is either a few spots up or a few spots down from 2025
And those sort of fluctuations will almost solely be determined by luck and injury.
Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.
Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 08, 2026, 12:07:55 pm
It's interesting looking at the poll We've had the "Chicken little" predictions and some "pie in the sky" predictions over the off-season, but inthe end mostly we're settling into expecting a ladder position that is either a few spots up or a few spots down from 2025
And those sort of fluctuations will almost solely be determined by luck and injury.
Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.
Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.
Bias will impact everyone's predictions ;) :D If you've convinced yourself and argued for a good or bad season you'll tend to gravitate and give weight to a range that fits your forecast.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 08, 2026, 02:18:29 pm
Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.
Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.
Bias will impact everyone's predictions ;) :D If you've convinced yourself and argued for a good or bad season you'll tend to gravitate and give weight to a range that fits your forecast.
Individually, perhaps, as a group, no. It will all average it as favourable towards the club you support, for all 18 teams.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 08, 2026, 03:57:43 pm
Sorry im a fence sitter. My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th. Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th. Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 08, 2026, 04:10:38 pm
Sorry im a fence sitter. My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th. Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th. Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
So anywhere other than bottom 4. lol
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: northernblue on February 08, 2026, 05:21:07 pm
Sorry im a fence sitter. My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th. Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th. Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
I think if the wheels do fall off the cellar is the limit. I also think 8th should have every member reaching for their fly… 😎
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 08, 2026, 07:58:15 pm
Sorry im a fence sitter. My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th. Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th. Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
So anywhere other than bottom 4. lol
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far.
West Coast will struggle to win games. Melbourne will absolutely slide further. Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 08, 2026, 10:20:15 pm
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far.
West Coast will struggle to win games. Melbourne will absolutely slide further. Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.
Last year we finished 11th with 7 teams below us We lost to 3 of them - Port, Kangas and Tigers We only just beat 2 more of them by 8 points - Bombers and Dees St. Kilda was a 15 point win West Coast was 34 points.
Of those 7, i expect 4 to improve, with just eagles, dees and bombers to stay crap or go backwards.
I'm not expected the 4 above us to get worse - Dogs, Suns, Hawks and Swans, which means you're hoping for a top 6 to go bottom 4, which is a big ask, more likely to be us than them.
BUT......this is why we play the season because we simply don't know.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 08, 2026, 10:49:00 pm
For what its worth, my ladder is: 1 Gold Coast 2 Brisbane 3 GWS 4 Western Bulldogs 5 Sydney 6 Hawthorn 7 Adelaide 8 Collingwood 9 St Kilda 10 Geelong 11 Fremantle 12 Carlton 13 Port Adelaide 14 Essendon 15 Melbourne 16 North Melbourne 17 Richmond 18 West Coast
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Thryleon on February 08, 2026, 10:54:58 pm
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far.
West Coast will struggle to win games. Melbourne will absolutely slide further. Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.
Last year we finished 11th with 7 teams below us We lost to 3 of them - Port, Kangas and Tigers We only just beat 2 more of them by 8 points - Bombers and Dees St. Kilda was a 15 point win West Coast was 34 points.
Of those 7, i expect 4 to improve, with just eagles, dees and bombers to stay crap or go backwards.
I'm not expected the 4 above us to get worse - Dogs, Suns, Hawks and Swans, which means you're hoping for a top 6 to go bottom 4, which is a big ask, more likely to be us than them.
BUT......this is why we play the season because we simply don't know.
I think you think our worst is a lot worse than i do.
Im not hoping on others, im simply looking at our potential. We actually have a good bunch of players and havent gone back that far. Sure, last season we didnt cover ourselves in glory, but we absolutely are better than that in my opinion.
Like you say though, this is where we need to play it out. I went through an exercise reviewing the off seasons of pretty much every team and hardly anyone has actually improved their list. Gws and gold coast did, but most others treaded water or went backwards on paper, but the sport isnt played on paper.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 08, 2026, 11:46:44 pm
...and despite what some might think, things like injuries , luck, the improvement of young players ...isn't the same for every side. Variables like this make predicting a season with any confidence a pretty tricky exercise.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: PaulP on February 09, 2026, 11:23:38 am
What I'm hoping to see this season :
-less injuries and more selection stability -fixing delivery into F50 -seeing the kids and recent recruits establish themselves as regulars in the senior team. -our B graders going to the next level. I'm not sure we can expect much more from our A graders. And I'd suggest that guys like Haynes and Hewett have also maxed out. If we can get some/most/all of the other B graders to perform like these two, the season will be very good.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Lods on February 09, 2026, 12:31:32 pm
With all the troubles we had last year.... We finished with 9 wins including a win over a grand finalist.
We had 8 other games where we finished within 4 goals of the opposition.
Richmond (loss by 13 points) Hawthorn (20) and (24) Western Bulldogs (8 ) Collingwood (17) Sydney (16) North (11) Gold Coast (19)
In 5 of those games we led at half time.
Some of those losses were inexcusable...but some were against pretty good opposition. It was a mediocre season, but there were reasons why the performance was so erratic.
There were probably only three or four games when we weren't really competitive for large parts of the game.
But a loss is a loss.
2026 gives us a fresh slate, and as Paul points out, there are number of areas where we need to be better than 2025 That's what we need to see. Improve in some of those areas and the two to three goal results may turn in our favour.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: shawny on February 09, 2026, 12:56:45 pm
For what its worth, my ladder is: 1 Gold Coast 2 Brisbane 3 GWS 4 Western Bulldogs 5 Sydney 6 Hawthorn 7 Adelaide 8 Collingwood 9 St Kilda 10 Geelong 11 Fremantle 12 Carlton 13 Port Adelaide 14 Essendon 15 Melbourne 16 North Melbourne 17 Richmond 18 West Coast
Id have Fremantle and Geelong in the eight with Collingwood and the WB's just missing...Pies are doing a midfield and forward line rebuild plus have a injury prone backline and the Dogs while having a talented list suffer with Beveridge trying to be over inventive. 12th will see us a with a new coach and rebuild too imho..
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 09, 2026, 02:44:56 pm
For what its worth, my ladder is: 1 Gold Coast 2 Brisbane 3 GWS 4 Western Bulldogs 5 Sydney 6 Hawthorn 7 Adelaide 8 Collingwood 9 St Kilda 10 Geelong 11 Fremantle 12 Carlton 13 Port Adelaide 14 Essendon 15 Melbourne 16 North Melbourne 17 Richmond 18 West Coast
Id have Fremantle and Geelong in the eight with Collingwood and the WB's just missing...Pies are doing a midfield and forward line rebuild plus have a injury prone backline and the Dogs while having a talented list suffer with Beveridge trying to be over inventive. 12th will see us a with a new coach and rebuild too imho..
Apart from their defence which leaks alot, I rate the Bullies and if Darcy gets up ad going, look out. Ditto Freo, midfield is scary good and probably warrants a spot as you say. Gee-long will slide a little I reckon.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: LP on February 09, 2026, 05:53:59 pm
Handbaggers will always be in and about given they have the experience and are well managed through the season, they just need to find a way to get the big names into a GF in a fresh state, at the moment they keep burning them in Prelims or early finals.
Having said that, I heard that Scott has gone MiA, or LoA, whatever it is it could be a sign he grows weary.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 09, 2026, 05:55:19 pm
Fantasy rankings had Dogs with numbers.... 1, 2, 3 and 6th best players in the league.
Sure, its fantasy, but if that doesn't equal top 8 certainties, thats a huge fail.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: LP on February 09, 2026, 05:57:56 pm
I like Darcy's boy in terms of his attack on the footy, the aggression he shows, but AFL is full of big bodies and eventually that style of play is going to take it's toll and that could be in Rnd 1 or in years from now, but it'll happen.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: kruddler on February 09, 2026, 06:17:03 pm
I like Darcy's boy in terms of his attack on the footy, the aggression he shows, but AFL is full of big bodies and eventually that style of play is going to take it's toll and that could be in Rnd 1 or in years from now, but it'll happen.
8 goals in a practice match. He will do plenty of damage now.
Title: Re: Where will Carlton finish?
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 09, 2026, 06:24:44 pm
Handbaggers will always be in and about given they have the experience and are well managed through the season, they just need to find a way to get the big names into a GF in a fresh state, at the moment they keep burning them in Prelims or early finals.
Having said that, I heard that Scott has gone MiA, or LoA, whatever it is it could be a sign he grows weary.
Scott has been given extra leave because he is coaching the Vic side. Good management, no issues.