We play the cats well. We play the hawks poorly. The cats play the hawks well.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 30, 2026, 02:04:55 pm
We have to be our best to beat Geelong, in finals they will be a different proposition to the H&A season. The wily old fox Scott will have a few tricks up his sleeve dont worry about that.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: pew2 on August 30, 2026, 03:00:36 pm
what worries me already there is talk about how good we are against geelong this might inspire cats to lift
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 30, 2026, 03:49:38 pm
what worries me already there is talk about how good we are against geelong this might inspire cats to lift
Here's our recent form: WWWWWWWLLWWWDW Like it or not, we keep winning so it's a different narrative for us. No longer are we easy beats, we have to be at our best but so do they. This is our new reality.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: shawny on August 30, 2026, 04:28:35 pm
what worries me already there is talk about how good we are against geelong this might inspire cats to lift
Here's our recent form: WWWWWWWLLWWWDW Like it or not, we keep winning so it's a different narrative for us. No longer are we easy beats, we have to be at our best but so do they. This is our new reality.
And all the talk of us failuring when we are the hunted and favourite is another narrative the bew look blues are shutting down.
If we play to out best we win next week. simple as that. Cats only beat us if we have an off week imo. Play the way we have in the last month and we get the job done.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Micky0 on August 30, 2026, 05:18:28 pm
what worries me already there is talk about how good we are against geelong this might inspire cats to lift
Here's our recent form: WWWWWWWLLWWWDW Like it or not, we keep winning so it's a different narrative for us. No longer are we easy beats, we have to be at our best but so do they. This is our new reality.
This is what we must become and stand up against if we are to be successful and win our next premiership! No reason it cant be now!
Our young kids are not nervy, they want this!
After a quieter (by his standards) game yesterday by Crippa I can foresee him being BOG on Friday… I just feel good about this next game, Cats are favourites, we have nothing to lose.
Go Blues 💪🏼
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 30, 2026, 07:03:51 pm
Here's our recent form: WWWWWWWLLWWWDW Like it or not, we keep winning so it's a different narrative for us. No longer are we easy beats, we have to be at our best but so do they. This is our new reality.
And all the talk of us failuring when we are the hunted and favourite is another narrative the bew look blues are shutting down.
If we play to out best we win next week. simple as that. Cats only beat us if we have an off week imo. Play the way we have in the last month and we get the job done.
Our best beats anyone.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: crashlander on August 30, 2026, 07:06:55 pm
The long term forecast is for rain, which doesn't suit us. We've lost our last two at the MVG in inclement weather, but we also didn't have our ruckman. Hopefully, we can turn that around this time.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 30, 2026, 07:12:55 pm
The long term forecast is for rain, which doesn't suit us. We've lost our last two at the MVG in inclement weather, but we also didn't have our ruckman. Hopefully, we can turn that around this time.
If it rains and we play badly again like we did against Haw, Ill be most upset.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: shawny on August 30, 2026, 08:01:43 pm
The long term forecast is for rain, which doesn't suit us. We've lost our last two at the MVG in inclement weather, but we also didn't have our ruckman. Hopefully, we can turn that around this time.
Rain is a disaster. Then again the hawthorn conditions were next level so as long as it not terrestrial rain should be ok
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 01:43:25 pm
The latest forecast I've seen is rain late Friday evening after 10pm, or early Saturday.
If Haynes is an out, can Derksen and Hayward both come in, it could give us the necessary freshness to keep us competitive?
I presume as everyone will, if Hayward is fit then he is a given. Geelong's lack of ruck stocks makes it interesting about the 2nd ruck role. I'm dead set curious which direction Fraser takes, but I think we have no better coach to assess this issue.
If I recall correctly, last time we played, it wasn't a great night for rucks from either side.
Expect another Dangflog human missile effort, it's been his trend in recent times but he's generally pretty much cooked early in finals now. Will he again be able to torpedo opponent legs without being penalized?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: kruddler on August 31, 2026, 02:24:10 pm
We haven't played 2 rucks all year with the exception of our 1st game....and a game where Pittonet was coming back from injury.
1 ruck works for us as our 2nd ruck can't play anywhere else. Unless you are including Young as your 2nd ruck, who clearly can play someone else.......and i'd argue not really a ruck.
We managed to beat Melbourne with 1 ruck who happens to be the best ruck in the game.....ever.....if you listen to the pre-match from Melbourne....and given the AA noms, they have a point.
So why would we change that for Geelong??
Cats will beat us with their smalls (if they beat us at all), so losing one to shore up an area that doesn't need shoring up, is silly IMO.
re Hayward.....if he comes in for anyone, based on form.....it has to be Byrne. He played his worst game, potentially ever. He got the lowest player rating in a carlton jumper (4 out of 10) that i saw in a recent article. They play a very similar role.
Who else could it be? Couldn't be Ollie Hollands after his efforts. Couldn't be Cottrell who could've kicked 4 goals if the posts were slightly wider. Despite not getting a huge amount, Lord did a tagging job, which may also be required this weekend
So has to be Byrne.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: shawny on August 31, 2026, 02:34:39 pm
I cant see Young holding his place. Had a few good games a month or so back but still is unsure of himself and can still be a liability in high pressure moments IMO.
Gawns goal on him was so disappointing as he had one role in that situation and was right next to him as the ball was kicked out of defence and then when the ball was turned over , Gawn had 15 metres of separation on him and marked unopposed. Was really poor considering how hard Pit worked on Gawn to give him a soft goal.
Reckon if Haywood plays it frees Harry into the 2nd ruck role and takes the need for Young out
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 02:39:22 pm
I cant see Young holding his place. Had a few good games a month or so back but still is unsure of himself and a liability IMO.
Reckon if Haywood plays it frees Harry into the 2nd ruck role and takes the need for Young out
The thing here for me is that having Hayward in makes a bloke like Young better because Hayward draws opponents, the ripple effect.
But think of the benefit to Cottrell, Gov, Kemp or Byrne of having Hayward in!
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 03:00:59 pm
In: Hayward, Derksen
Out: Young, Haynes
They will have lost Holmes who played well against us, and we have Hewett back.
I thought in the previous game our D50 was down, basically a one man show under Weiters, but we got hold of them from the ruck. Also if I recall, our DE was horrendous, much like last weekends 1st-Qtr. I'm pretty sure we got the mix wrong, we had Ison, Young, Byrnes and Evans all in, and Evans not yet in form. With the pill exiting our F50 like a bullet train, and Bailey Smith hitting up targets inside our D50, our D50 struggled to cover the options, yet we won courtesy of Walsh et. al!
The Jim Park votes are a good indicator. https://www.carltonsc.com/index.php?topic=7478.msg471382#msg471382 The forum voted Cripps, but I distinctly recall Walsh having an impact in that game.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: pew2 on August 31, 2026, 03:09:17 pm
i am not really confident about this game ,we finally meet a team at full strength and a week off ,we need to go to another level lets hope so
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 03:13:03 pm
i am not really confident about this game ,we finally meet a team at full strength and a week off ,we need to go to another level lets hope so
The start will be critical, getting the right balance between attack and defence, momentum control, we gave them a head start last time we played, just like last Saturday, we can't do that repeatedly and expect to win, especially in finals.
I suspect Scott the Elder will have his team try on the Berserker tactic early, to take the run out of our legs.
Last time they didn't ruck Blicsav much, they tried Neale, this time I expect they will split the ruck more evenly between Edwards and Blicsav unless Blicsav is carrying some injury we don't know about.
Acres will want to be in form and making them hurt with deep running both ways.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 03:31:45 pm
On the Geelong rucks, Edwards has only been about 50%~60% ToG over the last few games, would they consider going without?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on August 31, 2026, 03:54:00 pm
FWIW, I've just watched highlights of the previous Geelong clash and highlights of last Saturday.
In both games Byrne set a tone with tackles and bumps on bigger and heavier opponents. In Rnd 12 he smashed Blicsav's, on Saturday he had two significant momentum changing tackles and a big physical contest in our D50, how the stats claim otherwise is bizarre as they just cannot be missed. You can't find that sort of contest or create it easily, it's something that gives to the team and it is contagious.
The bump on Sharp in particular left the opponent wondering WFT, you know that is the response when they get up and look around to see who it was, Byrne had long moved on!
Pitto or Cripps stopping someone in their tracks goes largely unnoticed, Byrne or Evans doing it sets a tone.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: shawny on August 31, 2026, 05:48:29 pm
The thing here for me is that having Hayward in makes a bloke like Young better because Hayward draws opponents, the ripple effect.
But think of the benefit to Cottrell, Gov, Kemp or Byrne of having Hayward in!
Agree Haywood in does make Youngs position a little easier but reality is the weakest link has to be demoted and its Young IMO
Weakest link individually, maybe.
For team balance? Not even close.
Having Young in the team improves our forwardline.....by keeping Harry there. Improves our backline by allowing to drift back and/or cover for injuries. Improves our ruck by giving Pittonet as much rest as he needs.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 31, 2026, 08:00:39 pm
So you think Young being out caused the ten goal (64pt) loss against the Dawks!
As opposed to Pitto being out and our only ruck being zero gamer Flynn Riley, who was miles off being able to compete with Meek and Chol?
I'd actually assert that Riley and McKay were probably more opposition to Meek than Young would have been.
No, the one game we didn't win in the last 6 weeks was the draw against the Bulldogs.
Its real simple, when Lewis is out, Harry has to 2nd ruck, Pittonet takes longer breaks so we not only lose out in the ruck for longer periods but also from a key fwd perspective (ie there isn't one when Harry is rucking). Structurally, the H, Pitto, Young combo is our or best set up by a long way.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Lods on September 01, 2026, 04:50:45 pm
Will the weather be a factor in the team selection? Is it still expected to be a rainy night?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on September 01, 2026, 04:53:46 pm
The cats generally dont tag which works in our favour IMHO.
They use a more mobile ruck setup than traditional, and I would toy with the idea of player derkson over Young if Hayward isnt in.
Whilst there is a debate over rucks vs non rucks, you would have to speak to Pittonet, and then work out if he is happier going up against Blicavs and Edwards with a Young, or a different part timer.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: kruddler on September 01, 2026, 05:44:29 pm
Injury update.... Hayward - Test Haynes - Test
No update on Newman since 4/8, but that said 6-7 weeks, so you'd think he's still 2-3 weeks away.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on September 01, 2026, 06:20:48 pm
Will the weather be a factor in the team selection? Is it still expected to be a rainy night?
Yep. More 'showers' than 'rain'... not like the Dawks game where we found ourselves all at sea :D So, not heavy... a few mms. So, perhaps one tall may make way for Hayward, etc.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: kruddler on September 01, 2026, 06:26:46 pm
No update on Newman since 4/8, but that said 6-7 weeks, so you'd think he's still 2-3 weeks away.
i love newman, but I reckon father timr might be calling. 34 in January hasn't played much footy last 2 seasons isnt a good combo.
Yep.
Newy and Saad moved on at years end. Ollie Florent takes one spot. More time for Billy and Jeff (when his knee is right)......maybe even Ollie Hollands to take the other.
....with potentially Charleson if he doesn't get delisted as well.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: PaulP on September 01, 2026, 08:39:01 pm
Some talk that Max Holmes is a test to play.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 01, 2026, 08:39:58 pm
Correlation is not causality, fans are superstitious lot, I hope our MC isn't!
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 01, 2026, 08:48:12 pm
MCC reserved tickets and guest passes sold out today.
No public tickets left.
You mean reserved seating and reserved seat passes.
GA unreserved seating and all standing room only go on sale tomorrow at 9am.
Cmon fonzy, ypu can do it.... Wr..wro.....wron.....
PUBLIC RESERVE: General Public tickets for the 2026 Toyota AFL Finals Series match, First Elimination Final – Geelong Cats v Carlton on Friday, 4 September at the MCG are now sold out.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 07:08:49 am
Ticketing update
Reserved seats and visitor tickets are now sold out in the MCC Members’ Reserve for Elimination Final One between Geelong Cats and Carlton on Friday September 4. No additional visitor tickets will be available for this match.
Remaining accessible seating can be redeemed via the Accessible Ticketing Form on a first-in, first-served basis, subject to availability.
Full and Restricted members, and Annual Guest Card holders, who have not reserved a seat will still be able to access unreserved seating and standing room in the MCC Members’ Reserve by scanning their membership card at Gate 2, subject to capacity.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 07:13:21 am
Welcome to the 'G for the 2026 AFL Elimination Final One as the Geelong Cats play Carlton.
Tickets for Geelong Cats v Carlton will go on sale on Monday August 31 via Ticketek.
*Subject to availability
Ticket Type On Sale Competing Club Members Sold out AFL Members Sold out General Public* Sold out
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 02, 2026, 07:42:35 am
Full and Restricted members, and Annual Guest Card holders, who have not reserved a seat will still be able to access unreserved seating and standing room in the MCC Members’ Reserve by scanning their membership card at Gate 2, subject to capacity.
The MCC unreserved seating and standing room tickets can be purchased online today from 9am today by Full or Restricted MCC Members.
These are the seats in the bays behind the benches that you see people queuing up at the gate to get their preferred seat, they are always unreserved because they are not undercover and a couple of rows suffer the drip line from the stands above. It's been the same procedure for nearly 20 years. When they go it is officially a sellout, not when the AFL or Public seating sells out.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 07:48:45 am
Don't change your story. We all know MCC has walk up seats. There are no more tickets on sale.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 02, 2026, 08:21:56 am
Don't change your story. We all know MCC has walk up seats. There are no more tickets on sale.
I'm not changing any story, I've been telling you the same thing all along, you've assumed the GA Public, AFL and Clubs means "everybody"!
btw., The MCC Unreserved and Standing Room aren't necessarily walk up seats, if they don't sellout they are, MCC Full and Restricted Members can reserve them as well as guest passes online today from 9am, then collect them at the gates before entering the MCC Reserve. If a member changes mind they can unreserve them for sale at the gate on the day, they do not even have to be paid for until collected.
It's a long standing point of contention between the MCC and it's Members, and the primary cause of "Sellouts" having heaps of vacant seats everywhere in the MCC reserve. Members reserve seats, never collect or never release them, and just don't turn up leaving them unsold.
Regardless of what the AFL, Media and ticket vendors tell you, it won't be a sellout until they are all gone, that's just a hard fact. The resellers have run out of seats, not the MCG!
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 08:27:40 am
Link?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 08:29:08 am
Their website has nothing about 9:30am today.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on September 02, 2026, 08:31:35 am
This is all they have.
Unreserved and reserved seating areas will be available throughout the Members’ Reserve for the AFL Finals Series.
Members will be able to reserve a seat on Levels 1, 2 and 4 of the Members’ Reserve via Ticketek. Any unallocated reserved seating, along with designated unreserved seating areas, will be made available as unreserved seating on the match day on a first-in, first-served basis, subject to capacity and availability.
Seat tickets for unreserved seating will be distributed on Levels 1, 2 and 3 for all Finals matches. Seat tickets will only be given to members and guests who are present at the time.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: kruddler on September 02, 2026, 12:39:27 pm
All this is just deflection from the original point. That is, the AFL stuffed up by not playing this game on a saturday as they would get more people there. No. No they did not.
The end.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: laj on September 02, 2026, 01:53:02 pm
what worries me already there is talk about how good we are against geelong this might inspire cats to lift
Here's our recent form: WWWWWWWLLWWWDW Like it or not, we keep winning so it's a different narrative for us. No longer are we easy beats, we have to be at our best but so do they. This is our new reality.
Fun tapping the W button on the keyboard that many times...lol
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 02, 2026, 02:34:43 pm
Geelong has five players out with injury, one of whom, Max Holmes, is a test to play. Apart from Holmes, their most significant out is Rhys Stanley. Geelong has also lost Tyson Stengle who used to cause us headaches.
We have eight players out with injury, two of whom are inactive and have been replaced on our list, so effectively six players out. Two of those player, Nick Haynes and Wilbur Hayward, are tests to play. Both are important to our chances but aren't irreplaceable. Of the others, Matt Carroll and Nic Newman were best 23 when they were injured but I think that we have more than adequate replacements in the team now.
The six day break probably isn't ideal but our high performance staff know what they're doing and an extra day isn't going to make much difference. Geelong's week off could well be a negative 🤞
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: tex on September 02, 2026, 07:23:43 pm
Hayward won’t play IMO
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on September 03, 2026, 06:23:16 pm
Out Haynes In Derksen
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on September 03, 2026, 06:24:27 pm
Lots of omissions for the Cats, SDK, Martin, Clark
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: PaulP on September 03, 2026, 06:42:16 pm
No Will Hayward.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: kruddler on September 03, 2026, 06:48:24 pm
Happy with the balance. Definitely needed Young in the side.
Hayward needed to be 100% fit to come in with the way we need him to play, so good call there. Also difficult finding someone to drop....Byrne would be my guess based on last week alone, but overall he's performed well and everyone is allowed 1 bad game.
Ollie hollands didn't deserve to be dropped after his last game.....nor did anyone else.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 03, 2026, 07:00:36 pm
Lots of omissions for the Cats, SDK, Martin, Clark
They are going mobile, they have seen something mobile they think they can leverage.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Baggers on September 03, 2026, 07:09:42 pm
Regardless of the result, last week and this week will be invaluable experiences for this group, especially for the newbies and younguns.
Tall order for our group to take on this experienced and tough group. Previous encounters mean SFA. We'll be hunted... good learning experience.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 03, 2026, 07:14:01 pm
Just on Byrner's "bad game" - it's hard to have an impact when you're sitting on the pine (do they still have pine benches?).
He did OK while he was on the ground, particularly with the pressure he applied.
We'll miss Haynes' reliability and cool head but Derker is a more than adequate replacement.
De Koning out for the Cats is unexpected but Blicavs probably provides more versatility. Sending Lewis Young forward might stretch Geelong's backs who will match up quite well with our smaller forward line. Hayward would have been handy but it is what it is.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: BluePhantom on September 03, 2026, 07:23:21 pm
One in one out. Go Blues.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Shakin77 on September 03, 2026, 07:37:12 pm
Just on Byrner's "bad game" - it's hard to have an impact when you're sitting on the pine (do they still have pine benches?).
He did OK while he was on the ground, particularly with the pressure he applied.
Is your name Damian Truslove?? Can never bring yourself to say something remotely negative about someone.
Byrne dropped 3 chest marks. Had the fumbles. Pressure was up. Output not so much.
There was an article which rated all the players out of 10. Byrne was the lowest with a 4. Next lowest was a couple 5's i think. Lots of 8's and 9's.
I'm not holding it against him, i already said 1 bad game isn't an issue.....but it was a bad game.
For the record, he had 59% TOG, as did Young. Young had 1 more possession and the same amount of tackles, 1.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: townsendcalling on September 03, 2026, 08:36:00 pm
Scott more than likely to pull his normal last minute change. Holmes would be the one, but I hope he plays because he'll be out of petrol before 3/4 time.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 03, 2026, 08:37:45 pm
Just on Byrner's "bad game" - it's hard to have an impact when you're sitting on the pine (do they still have pine benches?).
He did OK while he was on the ground, particularly with the pressure he applied.
Is your name Damian Truslove?? Can never bring yourself to say something remotely negative about someone.
Byrne dropped 3 chest marks. Had the fumbles. Pressure was up. Output not so much.
There was an article which rated all the players out of 10. Byrne was the lowest with a 4. Next lowest was a couple 5's i think. Lots of 8's and 9's.
I'm not holding it against him, i already said 1 bad game isn't an issue.....but it was a bad game.
For the record, he had 59% TOG, as did Young. Young had 1 more possession and the same amount of tackles, 1.
I don’t bag our players … and look at my signature 😇
Most of our players had the fumbles early on and, if you care to watch the replay, you’ll see that Byrner had more than one tackle and a couple of heavy bumps.
If it’s good enough for Josh Fraser to mention Byrner’s pressure, it’s good enough for me 🙂
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 03, 2026, 08:42:33 pm
Most of our players had the fumbles early on and, if you care to watch the replay, you’ll see that Byrner had more than one tackle and a couple of heavy bumps.
I don't get how the such highly paid services get that sort of thing wrong when it's so obviously visible in the replay, have they started using AI for stats?
I think the problem they have is the definitions, what is the statistical definition of a tackle? It might no be what we assume.
Sometimes, I think they get stats wrong because the callers get names wrong, there was a distinct example of that earlier this season. If I can find it I'll post the moment, but I've also noticed stats changing a day or two after the game, I think that's fair enough.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on September 03, 2026, 09:07:08 pm
Scott more than likely to pull his normal last minute change. Holmes would be the one, but I hope he plays because he'll be out of petrol before 3/4 time.
I'd be testing that foot out if he lined up next to me.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: crashlander on September 03, 2026, 09:16:11 pm
Our line-up:
B: 2 Lachlan Cowan 23 Jacob Weitering 4 Oliver Hollands HB: 14 Oliver Florent 35 Harry Dean 47 Wade Derksen C 13 Blake Acres 9 Patrick Cripps 5 Adam Cerra HF: 12 Ben Ainsworth 11 Mitch McGovern 17 Brodie Kemp F: 36 Cooper Lord 10 Harry McKay 39 Talor Byrne R: 27 Marc Pittonet 18 Sam Walsh 7 Jagga Smith Int: 15 Billy Wilson 29 George Hewett 33 Lewis Young 44 Francis Evans 46 Matthew Cottrell Em: 37 Jordan Boyd 30 Jack Ison 25 Liam Reidy
[1] A pity that neither Haynes nor Hayward could get up. It does reduce our flexibility. Derksen deserves a go, assuming there is a match-up for him.
[2] The rain. :( I hope we're ready for it, as we've been ordinary in it this year.
[3] Playing unfit players: I'm glad we didn't do it.
[4] Who do we play on Stewart? I would love to have someone to play through, to keep him defending.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 03, 2026, 09:18:13 pm
I'd be testing that foot out if he lined up next to me.
A Clarkson coached team would! ;)
Sometimes the old ways are the gold ways! :D
Finals footy mate, no tomorrow, all's fair in love and war, nice guys go home.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on September 03, 2026, 09:20:21 pm
Haynes out is a big loss. Been very good for us. Feeling less confident without him back there as he is one of those quiet achievers who finds himself in the right place at the right time.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 04, 2026, 01:54:19 am
Haynes out is a big loss. Been very good for us. Feeling less confident without him back there as he is one of those quiet achievers who finds himself in the right place at the right time.
100% 3 Leos, plus no stranger to finals pressure AND performing at a high level in finals. Fortunately, Deano and Weiters have shown they can handle finals pressure too, can they step up another notch?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 04, 2026, 07:37:44 am
I would try Derksen on Stewart. He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.
Yes, that's a strategy worth trying, sometimes in finals it's the unexpected that gets a result, like The Hyphen to CHB.
I suspect they've brought the extra running numbers in because they want us to be run off our feet like the 1st-1/2 of the season, hopefully we can bring our A-Game momentum control and maximise F50 entries while not turning it over too much. They have a few players who are 50/50 injury wise, when we get the pill at the appropriate moment we need to go berserk and have them running off their feet to chase us.
Between Weiters, Dersksen and Young having Cameron get the pill well outside range will be a win if we can create that scenario.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Baggers on September 04, 2026, 07:41:13 am
Just on Byrner's "bad game" - it's hard to have an impact when you're sitting on the pine (do they still have pine benches?).
He did OK while he was on the ground, particularly with the pressure he applied.
We'll miss Haynes' reliability and cool head but Derker is a more than adequate replacement.
De Koning out for the Cats is unexpected but Blicavs probably provides more versatility. Sending Lewis Young forward might stretch Geelong's backs who will match up quite well with our smaller forward line. Hayward would have been handy but it is what it is.
Yep, a deeper dive into The Byrner's game against the Go Dees, as a number of commentators noted, was that he seemed overawed -- understandable -- in the first half making uncustomary mistakes, but found much better form in the second half.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Professer E on September 04, 2026, 07:53:09 am
Haynes is a massive out. Derkson to make Stewart accountable seems logical move. Cats have gone for more pace as well.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: pew2 on September 04, 2026, 02:09:17 pm
have we consider the weather rather bring in another quick more aerobic type of player
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 04, 2026, 02:11:20 pm
I find solace in the fact Derksen's marking has been substantially more reliable in D50 than F50.
Last week we had the fumbles, but we genuinely outplayed the Dees, the fumbles kept the Dees in it due to their efficiency scoring from entries / turnovers.
Our fumbling was mostly coming from our Forwards and Mids, our D50 was pretty reliable when given opportunity to get to the pill. If we fail to slow the opposition our D50 can do very little about it.
Surely we do not see Gov, Evans, Byrne, Kemp and Harry drop so many marks two weeks in a row, surely Smith, Walsh, Hewett and Cripps are cleaner this week!
I hope that result was the cure we need across the park to be more assured in the contest from any position on the ground!
After 1/2-time we were better everywhere.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on September 04, 2026, 02:16:32 pm
We lost a lot of Flexibility with Haynes. He was tall enough to pinch hit if we ended up having to shuffle the magnets and release a tall to another role. He was genuinely able to play on a wing as well with good aerobic capacity.
From the remainders, if we had to choose a bit of a tweener type, it would have been Ison.
Emergencies list Boyd, Ison and Reiddy. Boyd wouldnt be a bad selection. Has played finals, is a running type, and has decent capability with ball in hand. Umpires seem to hate him though and he infringes a lot for borderline stuff. He has also been out of favour a bit.
The interchange lists Wilson, Hewett, Young, Evans and Cotters suggesting if the change were to occur and its a tall out, it would be Lewis Young.
Personally Young for Boyd is neither here nor there. We definately don't want Reiddy in. Ison is the one who probably would execute better in the conditions, and more capable of being a game winner.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: LP on September 04, 2026, 02:32:51 pm
The chance of significant rain before 10pm is only slight, the chance of a tiny amount before 10pm is high. It'll be just enough to make it greasy but it should not be enough to affect field kicking or disposal. It's going to be windy, the G dries and soaks up moisture like a sponge.
Given we are perceived to be slower than Geelong a little rain slowing their disposal might actually assist us in applying pressure. The trick will be to remain clean with the footy.
The bigger problem for us is the wind, if it gets gusty the possession game is naturally harder to maintain.
Expect Dangerflog to be in Hyper Uber Accident Mode, just greasy enough for him to claim "I Slipped"!
How many Stops Up style marking attempts will be allowed against us this weekend, we suffered a barrage of them in recent weeks without a single free kick that I can recall? Can you imagine the furore if someone like Harry did that to Stewart?
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 04, 2026, 03:12:10 pm
We lost a lot of Flexibility with Haynes. He was tall enough to pinch hit if we ended up having to shuffle the magnets and release a tall to another role. He was genuinely able to play on a wing as well with good aerobic capacity.
From the remainders, if we had to choose a bit of a tweener type, it would have been Ison.
Emergencies list Boyd, Ison and Reiddy. Boyd wouldnt be a bad selection. Has played finals, is a running type, and has decent capability with ball in hand. Umpires seem to hate him though and he infringes a lot for borderline stuff. He has also been out of favour a bit.
The interchange lists Wilson, Hewett, Young, Evans and Cotters suggesting if the change were to occur and its a tall out, it would be Lewis Young.
Personally Young for Boyd is neither here nor there. We definately don't want Reiddy in. Ison is the one who probably would execute better in the conditions, and more capable of being a game winner.
One of our strengths is our versatility: Derksen, McGovern, Kemp and Young can all play forward or back. Dean, McGovern, Kemp and Cowan can all play on tall or small opponents - Cowan played on Cameron last time we met. Hollands, Cottrell, Cerra and Wilson can play forward, back or wing and Lord and Hewett can play inside mid or run with roles. Bringing in one of the emergencies would reduce our versatility if anything and I can't see that happening, unless it's a forced change. If so, I would opt for a like for like change rather than altering the balance we have now.
The forecast is for showers increasing from 4pm but with only 1-5mm expected from then until tomorrow morning. There's no sign of rain at our place (west of Melbourne) and the BOM radar shows light rain to the west of Ballarat. Unless we get a freak rain cell, I can't see the weather playing much part in the result.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on September 04, 2026, 04:02:26 pm
[4] Who do we play on Stewart? I would love to have someone to play through, to keep him defending.
I would try Derksen on Stewart. He's agile and good enough in the air to keep Stewart too busy to zone off.
Stewart will wipe the floor with Derksen.
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 04, 2026, 05:49:04 pm
In his presser after we beat Geelong in Rd 12, Scott was asked about our recent good record against the Cats. He denied being aware that we had won three of the four previous games and dismissed the question as irrelevant. In his pre-game presser, Scott spent quite a bit of time discussing our recent good form against them. He quite rightly made the point that our win in 2023 was irrelevant but conceded that Rd 12 was relevant, although both teams were playing better now.
All in all, it was a fairly open and wide ranging presser and very different to when he's sooking after a loss :)
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: dodge on September 04, 2026, 06:21:01 pm
Getting excited! First Blues final I'll have been to. Train is pretty full and there aren't many cats on it!
Do what we've been doing and I reckon we'll be OK. Go Blues!
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on September 04, 2026, 07:16:43 pm
Holmes out there warming up
Title: Re: AFL 2026 EF #1 Carlton vs Geelong Pre Game Prognostications
Post by: DJC on September 04, 2026, 07:22:34 pm