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Topic: Trumpled (Alternative Leading) (Read 780344 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4515 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on

Bounce back might take longer as countries have to formulate their response, either fall into line or fightback.
Investors will sell down shares and will pile into Real Estate putting prices up...
The concept of bouncing back is fundamentally flawed.

Sure, the market will eventually return to some growth, that is what it is designed to do, but the ground lost will never be fully regained. When you get the finish line you will forever be a few seconds behind where you could have been.

I've too many friends hurting now as a result of Trumps actions, and they are of an age that probably means the lost ground is permanent. An associate told me yesterday he had to postponed his retirement plans, delayed by 3 years, which is the time the historical data suggests he'll need to recover his lost ground.

I suspect somebody will eventually get very hurt.

That recent rally was a rumour, the inside job, and it came anonymously from "X", somebody made a killing but it wasn't and never will be Joe Average. When the market recovers, it'll do so with Joe Average poorer because as the ground is lost the cost of recovery climbs.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4516 –
The market priced it in and has gone green today.  It's shed some ground along the way, but buyers returned.

We are going to continue having asx gains in future with the odd blip along the way.  It's the way the ponzi scheme works.

Ride the bumps but if you're long term enough none of it will matter.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4517 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
The market priced it in and has gone green today.  It's shed some ground along the way, but buyers returned.

We are going to continue having asx gains in future with the odd blip along the way.  It's the way the ponzi scheme works.

Ride the bumps but if you're long term enough none of it will matter.
Alas, it has only recovered maybe a third of what it lost. :(
The ASX surely gains over time, but the near future looks rocky. If I had the money, I would have been buying left, right and centre on Monday, as top shares were sold off. Alas, I don't have the money, so I have to show patience.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4518 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
It's the way the ponzi scheme works.
They end in a rather sudden and devastating way!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4519 –
Smart man Warren Buffett sold down his share portfolio before Trump did his tariff work and has the cash now to buy back in cheap.
Market futures are down 142 points today,  you wouldn't be buying back in at the moment especially with bond yields going up. The unpredictability of Trump isn't good for share markets and bounce backs are going to be at the low end of the scale so I'd be keeping my powder dry and not trying to predict where the bottom is.
Maybe Buffet knows....meanwhile Trump set to hit China with 104% tariffs..

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4520 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Smart man Warren Buffett sold down his share portfolio before Trump did his tariff work and has the cash now to buy back in cheap.
Market futures are down 142 points today,  you wouldn't be buying back in at the moment especially with bond yields going up. The unpredictability of Trump isn't good for share markets and bounce backs are going to be at the low end of the scale so I'd be keeping my powder dry and not trying to predict where the bottom is.
Maybe Buffet knows....meanwhile Trump set to hit China with 104% tariffs..
time in the market > than timing the market.  If you see a discount and can hold it for 10 years you will be fine.

If you need your cash stay out.

Simples.  Buy during the black Swan crashes and buy good companies with a track record of doing business and you should be fine.


If you pay peanuts for a stock you should expect monkeys.

As for the turbulence in share price here is the lesson:

It takes a lot less for a stock to lose value than it does to gain.  Using 21 dollars a share as a benchmark, a drop of 7 dollars is a 30% loss.

For it to claw back that 7 dollars from $14 it must go up in value by 50%.

Ergo buywr beware but if you buy companies that make profits and pay dividends provided you don't need your capital back you'll be fine.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4521 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Ergo buywr beware but if you buy companies that make profits and pay dividends provided you don't need your capital back you'll be fine.
@Thryleon look at the rumours and actions coming out of the RedTrump Cartel, you can't rely on blue chip anymore because if they stand up and make themselves counted they are likely to be deliberately and destructively scuppered by the POTUS.

Fundamentally, this is where the Tesla backlash is coming from, employees of Tesla's competitors, because RedTrump has cost them jobs! These are backyard operations, they are mainstream corporate entities that employ thousands or perhaps even millions of Americans.

Musk is pissweak, he was all piss and vinegar week ago, now he's out in the media claiming he doesn't agree with GOP policies and that he believes in free trade. It's meaningless words not supported by actions, design to placate the disenfranchised. Too little too late.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4522 –
The MAGA people are so full of sh1t they must be able to taste it!

Today they are trying to spin Trumps tanking the global economy as a deliberate negotiation tactic the public and media misconstrued, what a bunch of 4rkwits! Today's subtotal for the global loss was just under $10T, that is $10,000,000,000,000, ten thousand billion or ten million million dollars, the 4rkwits are trying to spin that loss as deliberate.

Then they tried to spin today's market rally as the greatest day of trading since Trump's 1st term in office, of course that rally is just recovering only 10% of what was lost!

Surely nobody trusts or believes this guy ever again.

But maybe that is exactly what RedTrump ( a tag well deserved now given he didn't tariff Russia ) wants.

FWIW, I've have listened to a couple of psychologists discussing that narcissists often mask true motives by making people think they "were just joking", and gaslighting accusers or whistle-blowers by claiming things have been taken the wrong way. The side effect of that chain of events is that it causes people to stop watching them, they ignore the person they think is full of sh1t leaving them to go about their plans free of oversight, by the time people stop and realise it wasn't a joke it's too late!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4523 –
It's difficult to know from the outside how many of his clownar$e antics are just him, and how much is advice from his team. There's no doubt that he is backed by economic advisors that are perfectly competent and know exactly what they're doing. Whether he listens to them, whether there's skullduggery involved that ultimately benefits the billionaire class, the interplay between his political objectives, economic objectives, pandering to his cultist supporter base etc, is IMO hard to know at this point.

Announcing tariffs, then walking back on them, would benefit folks with inside knowledge. Trump may also be using the tariffs as a way of extracting more money from organizations, who would then be offered special exemptions. The tariffs are divisive for the capitalist class. Some will benefit, some won't. I've read that Trump wants a recession, because a recession will drive down the prices of real estate, companies, and shares of stock, all of which will then be bought on the cheap by the billionaire class who will then enjoy the ride back up. So many different angles, it's hard to make sense of it all.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4524 –
@LP I told you so.

The market hates uncertainty.  The Tariffs and trade war are coming.  They have priced that in.  They rebounded shortly yesterday, and today with the hiatus, the money is back in.

Like I said, dont monitor these things daily.  the market is to blame for the wild reacting, but the market is the market.  It has done what the market has done for 100 years, and will do what the market will do for 100 years.  Will on a graph rise over time in a non linear fashion with peaks and troughs along the way.   You will keep up with inflation with it invested, and the index will continue on its upward trajectory because of nothing but population growth and more resources continuing to be in use. 

Obviously the closer you get to retirement the more precarious this becomes, but when it all comes down to it, once the Aus election is passed, irrespective of what happens on the trade front, we will see a reaction to Tariffs that will see a sell off, and then once that is priced in, growth again based on the new government coming in and its economic policies.

If you map this trend over time, you will see this play out each and every time we go to the booths.  The Tariffs were just timing, the global economy is doing what the global economy does, but ours is not solely the Trump crap.

We should and will see if history is correct more red days than green days over the next 3 weeks, despite these tariff talks.

Thats my advise to all.  Heed it, dont heed it.  Your investment strategy is your own to do with as you please and you and your financial advisor are the only ones equipped to look out for you.  I am looking out for myself and my wife.  our share portfolio is all about compound growth over time from dividends, ignoring the bigger picture in the average cost per share over time, and only worrying about things when its required.  We have spread ourselves over all industries, and take opportunities as they come, based on money we are not taking from income.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4525 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
@LP I told you so.

The market hates uncertainty.  The Tariffs and trade war are coming.  They have priced that in.  They rebounded shortly yesterday, and today with the hiatus, the money is back in.

Like I said, dont monitor these things daily.  the market is to blame for the wild reacting, but the market is the market.  It has done what the market has done for 100 years, and will do what the market will do for 100 years.  Will on a graph rise over time in a non linear fashion with peaks and troughs along the way.   You will keep up with inflation with it invested, and the index will continue on its upward trajectory because of nothing but population growth and more resources continuing to be in use. 

Obviously the closer you get to retirement the more precarious this becomes, but when it all comes down to it, once the Aus election is passed, irrespective of what happens on the trade front, we will see a reaction to Tariffs that will see a sell off, and then once that is priced in, growth again based on the new government coming in and its economic policies.

If you map this trend over time, you will see this play out each and every time we go to the booths.  The Tariffs were just timing, the global economy is doing what the global economy does, but ours is not solely the Trump crap.

We should and will see if history is correct more red days than green days over the next 3 weeks, despite these tariff talks.

Thats my advise to all.  Heed it, dont heed it.  Your investment strategy is your own to do with as you please and you and your financial advisor are the only ones equipped to look out for you.  I am looking out for myself and my wife.  our share portfolio is all about compound growth over time from dividends, ignoring the bigger picture in the average cost per share over time, and only worrying about things when its required.  We have spread ourselves over all industries, and take opportunities as they come, based on money we are not taking from income.


ASX puts on 7-8 % average gain every year apart from one in every ten that has a down year so you can sit back with ETFs and Blue Chips and not have to think too much.
We are invested for income being retirees and I have had a long standing interest in the share market and Australia is one of the best places to invest in but will always follow the lead of the USA with market corrections etc.
Trump is just another Covid blip on the radar with heavy losses followed by heavy gains and the trick is to have a bit of cash set aside to buy when Trump pulls a lever and the market drops or just invest regularly and ease into stocks expecting volatility.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4526 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I've read that Trump wants a recession, because a recession will drive down the prices of real estate, companies, and shares of stock, all of which will then be bought on the cheap by the billionaire class who will then enjoy the ride back up. So many different angles, it's hard to make sense of it all.
I've no doubt this the game RedTrump and his wealthy buddies like Musk are playing, my problem is being told by that wealthy demographic that it's a good thing for the working class, and worse still having the working class defending those claims like it's a verse from the Bible or Quran.

Joe Average lost so much in the last couple of weeks, and will lose even more in the coming months, that he is unlikely to ever see it back!

I remember some bloke saying this was the recession we had to have, I wonder what the same character says about this cluster of feck!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4527 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Trump is just another Covid blip on the radar with heavy losses followed by heavy gains and the trick is to have a bit of cash set aside to buy when Trump pulls a lever and the market drops or just invest regularly and ease into stocks expecting volatility.
100% certain this is the cash game, but this wasn't some market blip, this was 100% deliberate, if a corporate executive did this they would be on the way to gaol for insider trading.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4528 –
Quote from: LP – on
I've no doubt this the game RedTrump and his wealthy buddies like Musk are playing, my problem is being told by that wealthy demographic that it's a good thing for the working class, and worse still having the working class defending those claims like it's a verse from the Bible or Quran.

Joe Average lost so much in the last couple of weeks, and will lose even more in the coming months, that he is unlikely to ever see it back!

I remember some bloke saying this was the recession we had to have, I wonder what the same character says about this cluster of feck!

With American politics configured as it is now, there's no way out through elections for the working class. Not with the Democrats, not with the Republicans.

Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)

Reply #4529 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
With American politics configured as it is now, there's no way out through elections for the working class. Not with the Democrats, not with the Republicans.
Society must not tolerate this level of open corruption, it's one thing for people to have ulterior motives, something else altogether when it's so blatant. We aren't talking sneaky emails or backroom deals, this is wide open market manipulation through public office.

I can see why RedTrump and Bolsonaro as such bosom buddies.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"