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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #210 –
The thing about Trump is that most experienced US Political observers are as stunned with this as we are.
If they can't predict it then what hope do we have. :(
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #211 –
Quote from: ItsOurTime – on
More likely that they would just not vote. Its a wishful thinking analysis anyway. It's exactly the analysis which suggested that Rubio woild get more delegates as rivals dropped out because who would side with trump over the other candidates?

Turns out most of them and with lots on momentum on his side coupled with an ever faltering Clinton at an almost unelectable approval rating (only thing going for her is Trumps' is actually worse)   ot will be a close call.

For some Republicans, the prospect of a President Clinton is more palatable than a President Trump - not because they like Clinton but because they could fight her on familiar terrain, rather than watching an unpredictable Trump use the power of the White House to remake the GOP.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/im-with-her-antitrump-republicans-are-considering-a-vote-for-hillary-clinton-20160504-gomlx2.html#ixzz47keurtZF
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #212 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The thing about Trump is that most experienced US Political observers are as stunned with this as we are.
If they can't predict it then what hope do we have. :(

Polls didn't get Trump's result wrong though.

The other thing you can near bet on is that the Republicans are so fractured that many of their voters, who think he's a loose cannon, will vote Democrats. Many have said as such already. I assume there's many swinging voters like anywhere and many will swing from the Republicans.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #214 –
Quote from: laj – on
Polls didn't get Trump's result wrong though.

The other thing you can near bet on is that the Republicans are so fractured that many of their voters, who think he's a loose cannon, will vote Democrats. Many have said as such already. I assume there's many swinging voters like anywhere and many will swing from the Republicans.

The polls probably won't get it wrong a week out from the election either.
But any poll taken now is totally worthless.
Trump has a habit of reversing poll results over a period of time

Any poll taken now doesn't factor a whole range of things.

-How will they go in the face to face general election campaign
-What will happen if the Republican machinery stops trying to block Trump and starts working for him
-Who will be his vice presidential choice and what effect will that have.

All of these factors could have the effect of narrowing any current poll gap.



Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #215 –
The people wanting Trump will actually physically vote for him...the people who dont want him are no certs to rock up on polling day and vote....thats the worry I have.

Imagine Trump and Nth Korea's Kim J shaping nuclear policy in the region... :o

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #216 –
We really don't know what we're getting with Trump should he become President....

He could be the ''fruit loop'' we all fear (in which case be very afraid) ....or he could run it like a  business and surround himself with a group of competent people, the best at what they do, and it all turns out hunky dory.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #217 –
Quote from: Lods – on
We really don't know what we're getting with Trump should he become President....

He could be the ''fruit loop'' we all fear (in which case be very afraid) ....or he could run it like a  business and surround himself with a group of competent people, the best at what they do, and it all turns out hunky dory.

Could indeed be a very cunning campaign where Trump is presenting himself as very non-establishment and closely in tune with the hopes and fears of the average American Joe. Once he's in the White House, as you say, he kisses and makes up with the traditional GOP establishment and transmutes into somthing a lot more conventional and orthodox.

The guy is primarily a salesman, hustler even.



Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #219 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
For some Republicans, the prospect of a President Clinton is more palatable than a President Trump - not because they like Clinton but because they could fight her on familiar terrain, rather than watching an unpredictable Trump use the power of the White House to remake the GOP.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/im-with-her-antitrump-republicans-are-considering-a-vote-for-hillary-clinton-20160504-gomlx2.html#ixzz47keurtZF
Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

Not saying that  this wasnt reported but the analysis is off the mark.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #221 –
Trump is  different
There will be many Republicans who wont vote for him.
There will be many nominally Democrats who will.
..one of the things he is doing is drawing out non -committed independent voters.

The result will be determined by how these factions play out.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #222 –
Quote from: Lods – on
We really don't know what we're getting with Trump should he become President....

He could be the ''fruit loop'' we all fear (in which case be very afraid) ....or he could run it like a  business and surround himself with a group of competent people, the best at what they do, and it all turns out hunky dory.
Agree Lods  but with Clinton are we going to get the same wishy washy government like Obama ,who treats his allies as the enemy and treat his enemies  as his friends.She has a lot of work to do ,dont think she is capable
sorry  

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #223 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Trump is  different
There will be many Republicans who wont vote for him.
There will be many nominally Democrats who will.
..one of the things he is doing is drawing out non -committed independent voters.

The result will be determined by how these factions play out.

I'm thinking there'll be bugger all Democrats that'll vote for him. They know he's a loose cannon.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #224 –
Quote from: laj – on
I'm thinking there'll be bugger all Democrats that'll vote for him. They know he's a loose cannon.

There's polls showing that more Democrats will vote for Trump than Republicans that will vote for Hilary - twice as many in some cases. The numbers also tend to favour Trump if the poll allows for voters not to vote for either party. Not to mention how wildly off the polling has been.

If i were a Democrat super delegate, I'd be looking at Sanders - which is equally remarkable.