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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #270 –


You have to give Trump credit.  Not many guys would want Bill holding hands with their hot wives  :P
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #271 –
And Hilary was a republican. Either way she will lose in November.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #272 –
Her father was a staunch Republican but I don't remember seeing anything that says she was.

EDIT: Yep, you're right.  But she saw the light in her 2nd year because of her views concerning the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights movement and never looked back.  Very different from a 60 year old supposedly having a change of heart. 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #273 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
And Hilary was a republican. Either way she will lose in November.

Reckon she won't. Think she'll win very easily.

They'll be many Republicans that won't vote for Trump.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #274 –
Quote from: laj – on
Reckon she won't. Think she'll win very easily.

They'll be many Republicans that won't vote for Trump.

Yes, Clinton will demolish Trump.

Of course, the Republicans could still put up another candidate.  Trump would then run as an independent and split the Republican vote. 
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #275 –
I'm not so sure, a lot of the americans i speak with are worried that many will vote for trump just so hilary won't get elected. If it was compulsory voting she'd win by a mile, but maybe not in their system

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #277 –
I hope you're right, scary prospect

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #278 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Yes, Clinton will demolish Trump.

Of course, the Republicans could still put up another candidate.  Trump would then run as an independent and split the Republican vote.

Sections of the Republican party could put up another candidate but it's more likely that they would the one under the "Independent" banner not Trump.

Trump must be the official Republican candidate given he's won the nomination process fair and square.
If he were to be stripped of that there would be a huge backlash from his supporters.

mav alluded to a third party (Republican) candidate earlier in the thread.
It's probably looming now as a fairly likely scenario and perhaps one that gives the Republicans the best chance of occupying the White House.

A third party candidate runs....splitting the Republican vote.
But also drawing enough Electoral college votes away from Clinton that she doesn't reach the 270 required. (The impact of this candidate on Hilary's vote is the big unknown factor...in fact it could backfire and strenghen her vote)...but assuming it did block her....

The decision then goes to the Republican dominated House who elect the Trump alternative.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #280 –
Lods, I was actually referring to:
  • the Libertarian Party which has nominated Gary Johnson and Bill Weld as his running mate - click HERE; and
  • the Green Party which has nominated Jill Stein and William Kreml as her running mate - click HERE.

By the way, those links show that both of those parties hardly allowed the public at large to vote - they rigged it so a Libertarian and Green would win.

Anyway, a Republican can run as an independent but the clock is ticking.  Each State has different prerequisites for getting onto the ballot.  There are differing filing dates and IIRC the one in Texas has either passed or soon will.  There are various requirements to put together lists of supporting signatures from signatories living in that State who can't have voted in other primaries or caucuses in that State.  So if Kasich were to run in those States, he'd need to sign up people who hadn't voted for him before.  So it isn't easy.

But don't make the mistake of assuming that an independent candidate will cause the delegates to be split, leaving everyone short of 270 electoral college votes.  Mostly*, each State's electoral votes all go to the candidate who receives the most votes, even if that candidate receives less than 50% of the vote.  So even if the Libertarian, Green and Independent candidates draw away votes, the Republican and Democratic candidates will get all the delegates.  The ONLY circumstance in which they might prevent one or tuther getting 270 is if one of them scores the most votes in one or more states.  Neither Ross Perot nor Ralph Nader managed to win a state even though Ross Perot received 18.9% of the popular vote.  There were 5 independent candidates earlier in the 20th Century who did manage to do so.

* Nebraska and Maine can split votes.  Both award 2 electors to the popular statewide vote winner and then 1 elector to the winner of the popular vote in each congressional district (making an additional 3 in Nebraska and 2 in Maine). 

The major threat of the third party candidates is that they can bleed votes from one of the main 2 candidates and swing the election to the other candidate.  In 2000, Ralph Nader ran as a Green candidate and took votes away from Gore in Florida which handed Bush the election (although he disputes this analysis).

Clinton would love a Republican to run as an independent and Trump would love Sanders to run as an independent.  In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt lost in the Republican primaries to Taft and then ran as an independent.  He managed to win 88 Electoral College votes, kept Taft to just 8, and allowed the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson, to romp home with 435.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #281 –
These are the requirements for an independent to be placed on the ballot in Texas:

Quote
Independent Candidates

Independent candidates for President file an application with the Secretary of State. The application must be submitted with a petition, and both documents must be filed no later than May 9, 2016. The petitions can be circulated beginning after March 1, 2016. For 2016, the petition must contain 79,939 signatures of registered voters who did not vote in the presidential primary of either party. The application must include the information about and signed consent from the candidate’s vice-presidential running mate. In addition to the petition and application, an independent candidate for President must provide signed, written statements of consent to be a presidential elector candidate from 38 presidential elector candidates (the number of presidential electors that federal law allocates to Texas). Forms are linked below and may be obtained from the Secretary of State’s office.

It looks like Texas has already shut out independents, although the Libertarian and Green Party candidates are set. 

I couldn't be bothered going through the other states to see which might already have closed their ballot nominations.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #282 –

Quote from: Mav – on
These are the requirements for an independent to be placed on the ballot in Texas:

It looks like Texas has already shut out independents, although the Libertarian and Green Party candidates are set. 

I couldn't be bothered going through the other states to see which might already have closed their ballot nominations.


About halfway down the page it gives the requirements for independent candidates and deadlines
The majority are in July/ August


https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_for_presidential_candidates#Election_dates_and_filing_deadlines.2C_2016

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #283 –
Curiosity won and I looked at the list (thanks Lods)

 - the people in the District of Columbia are recognised as a separate "State"
 - 5 US Territories get a vote as well.

That makes 56 "States" that get to vote.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #284 –
It's a nightmare system, isn't it?  Trump stuffed up in a few of the primaries/caucuses because he hadn't read all the fine print.  In Nevada, he didn't nominate potential delegates in time and the delegates who were ultimately awarded to him weren't even Trump voters.  If there'd been a contested convention, he would have lost quite a few because Ted Cruz was well organised and was busy peeling delegates away.  Even Ivanka Trump failed to register in time to vote for dear old daddy.

No wonder a well-organised candidate has a flying squad of lawyers and a reliable team of scrutineers in every state just waiting to argue all the technicalities in a close election.