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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #915 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
There is an old saying Cookie..." a drowning man will cling onto a Serpent"...seems like a few more Americans than expected are clinging onto Trump.....

Yep. If (when?) Trump wins this will mean a massive shift in US foreign policy and strategy, from what I know of it, and maybe the end of the US Imperium and its dominance. God knows what will happen domestically.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #916 –
Seems to the the fall of a civilisation.  The citizens of Rome lost the willingness to preserve Rome's dominance.  As China's power grows and Russia tries to regain its former glory, this is hardly the time for American voters to have a hissy fit.

Still, the odds are that Trump will be more like a belligerent and obnoxious Governor-General while Mike Pence will be more like an Aussie PM who doesn't have to fear a leadership challenge from his own party.  Remember, there was a story that leaked when Trump was sounding out potential running mates that he told John Kasich that he, Kasich, would run the domestic policy while Trump focussed on making America great again.  The bad news is that Pence is a right-wing wingnut beneath his "aw shucks" demeanour.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #917 –
Quote from: mateinone – on
As Mav has stated Cookie, the odds are based on Michigan, Florida etc, not on the states already won.
Caifornia etc are almost irrelvant to any odds because they are already marked Blue, if there was a chance they went red it would be al l over.

Has anyone here traveled through rural America?


When you drive through towns they have lost their identity and they are fully corporate. There is no small business in these towns and they consist largely of 2-3 food chains (Wendy's, Taco Bell etc) maybe a Hi-Vee supermarket, a few gas chains and a CVS. if a bit bigger it will have a Wal-Mart. It means a very high percentage of people are working at these chains and living on minimum wage with food stamps and no real way for most to improve their station.

Clinton could win this, but this election is showing that those people are extremely unhappy at present.
The thing is though it smells like a protest vote rather than a vote for anything positive he actually offers.

I am perplexed by this whole election

Good post MIO.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #918 –
Trump has won Florida and Ohio - 95% certain to be president now!
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #919 –
Quote from: mateinone – on


Clinton could win this, but this election is showing that those people are extremely unhappy at present.
The thing is though it smells like a protest vote rather than a vote for anything positive he actually offers.

I am perplexed by this whole election

Of course its a protest vote MIO, as was Brexit. If people are ignored and deprived for long enough they will protest and turf out those who they think have caused their woes. It's an old story.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #920 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
Of course its a protest vote MIO, as was Brexit. If people are ignored and deprived for long enough they will protest and turf out those who they think have caused their woes. It's an old story.

Its Nazi germany stuff IMO...you get enough working class people struggling and a well organised marketing strategy to engage them and you get their hearts and minds to follow.... a lot of Trump voters wouldnt have a clue what they are voting for.....in their minds anything is better than what we have, so its where do I sign to get a promised better life...
You have to wonder too if some of Hilarys promised votes didnt make it to the ballot box....

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #921 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
Trump has won Florida and Ohio - 95% certain to be president now!

I still haven't seen Florida called yet, but all indicators are pointing to Trump.
History suggests Florida + Ohio = President
However there is still some hope. I think though now she will need to turn a state such as Arizona. Arizona is an extremely interesting state. It is a border state and would have some of the highest number of Latinos both documented and undocumented. There is a long history of violence and I believe it was the kidnap capital of the US due to the drug trade. There will be a lot of people very strongly Trump and a lot of people very strongly anti-Trump with this policies on deportation etc.

I think it will hold Trump, but it is certainly a state still up in the air.
The other one is Utah.
As Mitt Romney's state it could very well fall to the 3rd option there and you might not get anyone voted in tonight.

But the as the election has shown any real prediction is foolhardy in this one.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #922 –
What happens in the states where there is a third option and neither Clinton or Trump have a clear majority?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #923 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Its Nazi germany stuff IMO...you get enough working class people struggling and a well organised marketing strategy to engage them and you get their hearts and minds to follow.... a lot of Trump voters wouldnt have a clue what they are voting for.....in their minds anything is better than what we have, so its where do I sign to get a promised better life...

Sure is, more than anything it's a massive failure of the conventional political parties to provide adequately for their constituents, just as the weak Weimar republic did in Germany in the 1920s and 30s. People will cop it for so long then patience runs out and anything can happen.
Reality always wins in the end.
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #924 –
Phillipines Prez Duterte may have been ahead of the curve.  There may be a few Asian nations distancing themselves from the US and being more open to China.  Why wouldn't they, given Trump has threatened to downgrade US support?  I hope that Julie Bishop will avoid handcuffing us to the US.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #925 –
Quote from: Bear – on
Happy to wager that Hillary will not go to jail.

Trump may have her executed, but she won't go to jail.

Less confident that Hillary won't go to jail.

Might need to get on "Execute Hillary".

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #926 –
Quote from: LP – on
What happens in the states where there is a third option and neither Clinton or Trump have a clear majority?
No need for a clear majority.  The candidate with the highest number of votes in any particular state wins all of that state's electoral college votes even if (s)he doesn't get 50% of the vote (disregarding a couple of states which split votes by congressional districts).

3rd party candidates really are only important when they take more votes from one of the 2 main candidates than the other.

Only in Utah might McMullin top the vote, and that's not likely.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #927 –
Quote from: Bear – on
Less confident that Hillary won't go to jail.

Might need to get on "Execute Hillary".

Maybe she should be warming up the engine of her getaway car?  ;)
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #928 –
I just layed Trump for a $1000 just because I would like to make a profit if he loses  ;D

He just picked up Utah though, so he is edging closer, but Hilary is fighting back in Michigan
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #929 –
Florida has now been called Trump as expected
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL