Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)
Reply #5086 –
The initial expectation is that the US will head towards recession, if that happens the RBA might have already shot itself in the foot and over-corrected, it's why some thought no change was the best option.
But the good news for investors would be markets, in particular it might signal the bottom of the market for housing is right now, although I've heard some describe the coming months in housing as a dead cat bounce.
A problem Australia has is that homeowners aren't dynamic enough, they tend to not shop around for the cheapest rates, which allows the big the banks to ride out the storm and still post big profits. Maybe that changes in the AI era.
I expect super to take a hit, a lot of Aussie super is heavily invested in the USA, and it's likely a US recession will impact growth. But this is where self-managed super can have a big influence, because if they think the market is close to bottoming out they could flood back into the domestic property market. At the moment there is a swing towards commercial over residential, but a US recession would probably be bad for that segment. Chasing growth can be a double edged sword.
What odds Aussie Politicians swing back to loving China?