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Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #105 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
I think you can find plenty of examples that go the other way, completely. I've certainly sent snakes, possums and rats to 'a better place' when they posed a threat to the wellbeing of my family or attempting to destroy my veggie patch -- yes, living in a bayside suburb then and also when we lived in Tyabb.

One of my dear friends (city dweller - outer suburb) grows the best tomatoes you will ever taste... mostly beefheart for all his pastes (tradition Italian pasta sauces). Suffice to say he has no issues with possoms. As some vanish and new ones arrive, they mysteriously vanish as well... no-one messes with his tomatoes! Kiwis have the right idea for possoms. Conversely, I can tell you about friends in Gippy who would be horrified by my mates attitudes and actions to protect his tomatoes/veggie garden!

I've lived in both city and country since leaving the Navy in 1976 and although there are some definite cultural differences, the divide is not as great as some might believe. We live 2 hours from Melbourne now and the mix of folks here is pretty diverse... there is the 'less rush' of the country here, which I like. I don't miss the smell of pollution in the air of the city, that's for sure. The smell of eucalypt in the morning... aahhhh, magnificent.

And as for possums when people were screaming at bracks to do something about them destroying the Botanic Gardens?  The effwit said "they were here first".

Should be a state wide cull on them, bats and mynahs.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #106 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
I've lived in both city and country since leaving the Navy in 1976 and although there are some definite cultural differences, the divide is not as great as some might believe.
I think the primary issue is that the impression is crafted by the loudest voices which are generally at the extremes of the debate.

In my job I get exposed to a lot of scientists, some of them actual climate and environment scientists and not just opinionated biologists or physicists. The scientists almost never use words like "will" or "is", and always use terms like "could" or "might". It's that "Imposter Syndrome" kicking in, the more you know the less definitive and confident you become.

It's the idiots, morons and extremists who declare things in the definitive, the Dunning-Kruger effect in full swing!

Back on the Hazard Management / Fuel Reduction debate, the rules are the same for all fires, The Fire Triangle applies no matter if it's a wildfire in the bush or the family barbecue.


Finally if fuel reduction isn't effective, why are they back-burning in the Corryong yesterday and again later this week?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/residents-urged-to-flee-as-high-country-fire-danger-heads-to-extreme-20200108-p53pwa.html

The reported and published words don't mean much when the actions don't match.

Finally, why do some(people or business) want the fires to be declared an act of arson? It can be for as simple of a reason as the fine print in the insurance policy that they signed!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #107 –
Quote from: capcom – on
And as for possums when people were screaming at bracks to do something about them destroying the Botanic Gardens?  The effwit said "they were here first".
Should be a state wide cull on them, bats and mynahs.

I wonder if Bracks applied the same logic to Indigenous Aussies?  😕

The Kiwis have the right idea for possums... they make good purses, etc. And this is from a country way more 'environmental' than us. Nothing but over grown rats those possums.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #108 –
Quote from: LP – on
I think the primary issue is that the impression is crafted by the loudest voices which are generally at the extremes of the debate.

In my job I get exposed to a lot of scientists, some of them actual climate and environment scientists and not just opinionated biologists or physicists. The scientists almost never use words like "will" or "is", and always use terms like "could" or "might". It's that "Imposter Syndrome" kicking in, the more you know the less definitive and confident you become.

It's the idiots, morons and extremists who declare things in the definitive, the Dunning-Kruger effect in full swing!

Back on the Hazard Management / Fuel Reduction debate, the rules are the same for all fires, The Fire Triangle applies no matter if it's a wildfire in the bush or the family barbecue.


Finally if fuel reduction isn't effective, why are they back-burning in the Corryong yesterday and again later this week?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/residents-urged-to-flee-as-high-country-fire-danger-heads-to-extreme-20200108-p53pwa.html

The reported and published words don't mean much when the actions don't match.

Finally, why do some(people or business) want the fires to be declared an act of arson? It can be for as simple of a reason as the fine print in the insurance policy that they signed!

Good post, Spotted One.

Spot on re Dunning Kruger Effect.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #109 –
Quote from: LP – on
I think the primary issue is that the impression is crafted by the loudest voices which are generally at the extremes of the debate.

In my job I get exposed to a lot of scientists, some of them actual climate and environment scientists and not just opinionated biologists or physicists. The scientists almost never use words like "will" or "is", and always use terms like "could" or "might". It's that "Imposter Syndrome" kicking in, the more you know the less definitive and confident you become.

It's the idiots, morons and extremists who declare things in the definitive, the Dunning-Kruger effect in full swing!

Back on the Hazard Management / Fuel Reduction debate, the rules are the same for all fires, The Fire Triangle applies no matter if it's a wildfire in the bush or the family barbecue.


Finally if fuel reduction isn't effective, why are they back-burning in the Corryong yesterday and again later this week?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/residents-urged-to-flee-as-high-country-fire-danger-heads-to-extreme-20200108-p53pwa.html

The reported and published words don't mean much when the actions don't match.

Finally, why do some(people or business) want the fires to be declared an act of arson? It can be for as simple of a reason as the fine print in the insurance policy that they signed!

https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059

It's a real problem.

Harsher penalties a must.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #110 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059

It's a real problem.

Harsher penalties a must.

Thanks for the link. I am not sure about the 'harsher penalties' argument as I seriously doubt the people who do this think much before they act. If you are wanting to lock them up for longer, then yes that may be effective - but how do we identify these people, and then how do we find out the motivation? We must stop the cause which is mental in nature.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #111 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
https://www.aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059

It's a real problem.

Harsher penalties a must.
What is the general public's perceived definition of arson, and what is the official definition of arson?

When News Ltd report arson, I bet the bulk of readers think somebody sneaking around setting fires, when the greens report arson I suspect their definition probably includes some poor bastard who's tractor or lawnmower catches fire fringing a state forest, in other words those they see as environmental vandals and want to label as criminals.

When reading an emotive term like "arson" it's best to qualify that thought before jumping to conclusions.

50% of fire are deliberate or suspicious, what does suspicious cover, everything from a mower, grinder, electric fence or welder to a cigarette butt I presume?

I remember years ago the authorities refused to accept a link between dumping rubbish on roadsides and fires, but then the CSIRO proved that discarded glass(intact or smashed) could start a fire unassisted. So is a rubbish dumper an arsonist?

This is so reminiscent of the discussion we had in another thread about football statistics.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #112 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Good post, Spotted One.

Spot on re Dunning Kruger Effect.

People who "don't know what they don't know" or are "unconsciously incompetent"??
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #113 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
People who "don't know what they don't know" or are "unconsciously incompetent"??
Very true Cookie2, the devil is always in the detail, and it's clear it's not always a conscious act to behave irresponsibly.

I suppose that is why the legal term Manslaughter exists!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #114 –
Quote from: spf – on
Thanks for the link. I am not sure about the 'harsher penalties' argument as I seriously doubt the people who do this think much before they act. If you are wanting to lock them up for longer, then yes that may be effective - but how do we identify these people, and then how do we find out the motivation? We must stop the cause which is mental in nature.

I think it stated somewhere that some of the fires were started not by deliberately being lit but by carelessness e.g. dropped cigarette, or by a small fire or bbq getting out of control. That would be different, imo anyway, to someone lighting a fire with deliberate intent to cause major damage but the outcome is often the same. Both of these circumstances were included in the figures I understand.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #115 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
I think it stated somewhere that some of the fires were started not by deliberately being lit but by carelessness e.g. dropped cigarette, or by a small fire or bbq getting out of control. That would be different, imo anyway, to someone lighting a fire with deliberate intent to cause major damage but the outcome is often the same. Both of these circumstances were included in the figures I understand.

Correct.

My boss lives in a Kangaroo ground on a few acres. They have big blokes there considering its proximity to the city and plenty of bush.

Both this fire season, and black friday he had to deal with fires on his street.
Both times the cause of the fires was the neighbour across the road.
Both times he did the wrong thing.
1. Black Friday.....He burnt off too late and tried to cover his tracks by burrying the fires/embers. It burned underground for kms before popping up and starting a huge bush fire.
2. More recently, mid-december of last year, he burned off later than he should have....again. This time he didn't bury it but left it to smulder. A few days later those huge winds we had reignited the remains and it created another decent sized fire.

Both times it was his fault, but not deliberate.
First time he got a slap on the wrist.
Not sure what will happen this time. But the neighbourhood are furious with him.....and rightly so.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #116 –
24 arrested for 'alleged' arson. 

By the way I suggest that people google 'Victorian '39 fires' to find that this horrendous fire is nowhere near as large nor, thankfully, as deadly.

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #117 –
I'm full of admiration for those who stay and fight the fires defending their property, I suspect it's the right thing to do and eases the burden on the already stretched CFA, as long as those who stay are properly prepared to do so.

Having said that I probably wouldn't stay and would ask my family to leave, and clear out the pets(horses, dogs, cats, etc, etc..). Primarily I'd leave because we might be more of a burden than assistance, so staying is the wrong thing to do.

But then it's horses for courses, a slow moving ground fire in calm conditions is relatively dependable and ember attack is your property's main problem, but if the fire is crowning or if the winds are high you can't be out fighting the fire front, you have to shelter until it passes then do your work in pretty hazardous conditions to minimise damage if you can. So you need to be fundamentally in good health, a few too many people survive fire fronts then have strokes or heart-attacks in the aftermath.

Governments spend millions and billions fighting fires and rebuilding, but you can't get a grant to build a fire shelter/bunker or add a sprinkler system to your house! Yet they'll fund your solar cells or lithium(explosive in fires) battery retrofit. It's a very odd situation in a country like Australia, we a carbon blip on the global scale, not even a fart on China or India emissions! Our priorities are all wrong, and our carbon emissions critics won't differentiate between regular per-capita consumption of resources and the continual rebuilding from fires, they do not want to acknowledge that they'd rather slight us as wasteful!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #118 –
Funny old country this one.... ;)

Said Hanrahan
P.J. Hartigan ("John O’Brien")  (100 years ago)
"We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan
In accents most forlorn
Outside the church ere Mass began
One frosty Sunday morn.
The congregation stood about,
Coat-collars to the ears,
And talked of stock and crops and drought
As it had done for years.
"It’s lookin’ crook," said Daniel Croke;
"Bedad, it’s cruke, me lad
For never since the banks went broke
Has seasons been so bad."
"It’s dry, all right," said young O’Neil,
With which astute remark
He squatted down upon his heel
And chewed a piece of bark.
And so around the chorus ran
"It’s keepin’ dry, no doubt."
"We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out.
"The crops are done; ye’ll have your work
To save one bag of grain;
From here way out to Back-O’-Bourke
They’re singin’ out for rain.
"They’re singin’ out for rain," he said,
"And all the tanks are dry."
The congregation scratched its head,
And gazed around the sky.
"There won’t be grass, in any case,
Enough to feed an ass;
There’s not a blade on Casey’s place
As I came down to Mass."
"If rain don’t come this month," said Dan,
And cleared his throat to speak –
"We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, "
If rain don’t come this week."
A heavy silence seemed to steal
On all at this remark;
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed a piece of bark.
"We want an inch of rain, we do,"
O’Neil observed at last;
But Croke "maintained" we wanted two
To put the danger past.
"If we don’t get three inches, man,
Or four to break this drought,
We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."
In God’s good time down came the rain;
And all the afternoon
On iron roof and window-pane
It drummed a homely tune.
And through the night it pattered still,
And lightsome, gladsome elves
On dripping spout and window-sill
Kept talking to themselves.
It pelted, pelted all day long,
A-singing at its work,
Till every heart took up the song
Way out to Back-O’-Bourke.
And every creek a banker ran,
And dams filled overtop;
"We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"If this rain doesn’t stop."
And stop it did, in God’s good time:
And spring came in to fold
A mantle o’er the hills sublime
Of green and pink and gold.
And days went by on dancing feet,
With harvest-hopes immense,
And laughing eyes beheld the wheat
Nid-nodding o’er the fence.
And, oh, the smiles on every face,
As happy lad and lass
Through grass knee-deep on Casey’s place
Went riding down to Mass.
While round the church in clothes genteel
Discoursed the men of mark,
And each man squatted on his heel,
And chewed his piece of bark.
"There’ll be bush-fires for sure, me man,
There will, without a doubt;
We’ll all be rooned," said Hanrahan,
"Before the year is out."

Re: Deer in the Headlights

Reply #119 –
Quote from: chalkybill – on
24 arrested for 'alleged' arson. 

By the way I suggest that people google 'Victorian '39 fires' to find that this horrendous fire is nowhere near as large nor, thankfully, as deadly.

Sorry Chalky but you’re way off the mark there. We’ve never experienced anything like the intensity, extent and duration of the current bushfires ... and we’re still not in the peak bushfire season.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!