Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Reply #1962 –
Thanks Nando.
Thought you might be interested @PaulP
I've read a bit of argy-bargy online discussing the virality versus lethality, with some deniers claiming the new variants prove COVID isn't a risk because lethality hasn't risen despite increased transmission in the new variants, it's a pretty poor conclusion they've come to, firstly because deaths lag infections by a couple of months so it's too early to call, secondly because the fundamental conclusion is very wrong.
A simple calculation illustrates why. Suppose 10,000 people are infected in a city and each infects 1.1 other people on average, the low end for the estimated rate of infection in England now. After a month, 16,000 people would have been infected. If the infection fatality rate is 0.8 per cent, as it was in England at the end of the first wave of infections, it would mean 128 deaths.
With a variant that is 50 per cent more deadly, those 16,000 cases would result in 192 deaths. But with a variant that is 50 per cent more transmissible, though no more deadly, there would be 122,000 cases after a month, leading to 976 deaths.