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Re: General Discussions

Reply #735 –
Quote from: Lods – on
As the 'Art of War' develops we see that previously very effective 'weapons' and tactics are often bypassed by new and more effective equipment or strategies.

Lines of troops in tightly packed formations would have been cut to pieces during WW1
Cavalry is another example and pretty much lost it's impact during WW1.
Trench warfare wouldn't have worked too well in WWW2

As the fighting in Ukraine has shown us. there are things you wouldn't want to be 'sitting in' during the next major conflict-

A: Tanks
B: Most surface warships

It depends on the tanks Lods.  State of the art tanks, like our Abrams and most NATO tanks, have sophisticated anti-missile systems.  Most Russian tanks rely on explosive-reactive armour and that isn’t effective against smart missiles.  Of course, a brave person with a Molotov cocktail and a lot of luck can still take out a modern tank.

It’s much the same with ships; those with state of the art weapons systems should be relatively immune from missile strike.

Moskva is over 40 years old and, while it will have been upgraded, would still have had analog systems.

The closest thing we have to the Moskva are our three guided missile destroyers, all of which were commissioned within the last 4-5 years.

I suppose one factor Putin’s strategists got wrong was how quickly the West would re-arm Ukraine with sophisticated weapons systems.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: General Discussions

Reply #736 –
Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: General Discussions

Reply #737 –
Quote from: LP – on
Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?
Putin would have an interest in Moldova and already has a foot in the door with Transnistria which is a non recognised
State which really is a Russian outpost on a strip of land annexed from Moldova with about 1000 Russian troops stationed there. Moldova is a hole of a country apart from it's charasmatic female president but borders Romania which is a important part of Nato's defensive setup.
Moldova is not part of NATO or the EU and unlike Ukraine doesn't have a strong military and would be an easy target if Putin can take Ukraine.

Re: General Discussions

Reply #738 –
Quote from: LP – on
Maybe Ukraine isn't the war Putin is waiting for, personally I can't see that to be the case, because wouldn't be an even bigger mistake to take on the EU and it's Allies, especially if Russia is bust?

fwiw, a left field question, where does the OECD sit in this war, and how does that relate to the OPEC position?

Is it totally wrong to assume that some of Putin's obvious Allies might not be?

OECD suspended Russia and Belarus in February and committed to assist with Ukraine's recovery.

Russia isn't a member of OPEC and has been at loggerheads with some OPEC nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, quite often in the recent past.  However, several OPEC nations are within Russia's sphere of influence and are resisting calls to lift production and reduce dependence on Russian oil.  It is expected that oil production and access to reserves will ease pressure on oil prices this month.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: General Discussions

Reply #739 –
Quote from: DJC – on
In the context of Russia’s overwhelming troop, tank, artillery, missile and naval forces and air superiority, it is a catastrophic failure.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Afghanistan

20 years later we didn't hear about any of it being a failure 2 months in.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: General Discussions

Reply #740 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Afghanistan

20 years later we didn't hear about any of it being a failure 2 months in.
I'm not sure the comparison is valid.

I suppose we could argue casualties in Allied forces in Afghanistan / Iraq, even though always too many, were pretty low by comparison. I don't recall swatches of Allied commanders being caught or killed, nor do I remember the Allies sending conscripts to their death by the hundreds or thousands in the early stages. If we want to use the Afghan / Iraq scenario as a comparison, in Putin's case the early rate of casualty and leadership loss seems unsustainable.

Despite the claims in some media segments, I do not specifically recall the Allies deliberately targeting operational hospitals, civilian apartment blocks or civilian train and bus transport, or flattening whole residential suburbs for no apparent good reason. Nor do I recall the Allies directly or indirectly threatening the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or bombing / shelling nuclear power facilities in Iraq.

I note that many of the Allied casualties in Iraq / Afghan were delivered courtesy of Putin supplied munitions.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: General Discussions

Reply #741 –
Russia are also occupied in Syria where they are propping up the Assad Government and bombing rebels and the odd hospital and civilian targets.
They have been there since 2015 and I guess Oil is at the core of their interest and denying the USA any chance to influence outcomes in that area.

Re: General Discussions

Reply #742 –
Quote from: LP – on
I'm not sure the comparison is valid.

I suppose we could argue casualties in Allied forces in Afghanistan / Iraq, even though always too many, were pretty low by comparison. I don't recall swatches of Allied commanders being caught or killed, nor do I remember the Allies sending conscripts to their death by the hundreds or thousands in the early stages. If we want to use the Afghan / Iraq scenario as a comparison, in Putin's case the early rate of casualty and leadership loss seems unsustainable.

Despite the claims in some media segments, I do not specifically recall the Allies deliberately targeting operational hospitals, civilian apartment blocks or civilian train and bus transport, or flattening whole residential suburbs for no apparent good reason. Nor do I recall the Allies directly or indirectly threatening the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or bombing / shelling nuclear power facilities in Iraq.

I note that many of the Allied casualties in Iraq / Afghan were delivered courtesy of Putin supplied munitions.

LP its not about comparing outcomes or even circumstances.   War is bloody and merciless and you can guarantee that war crimes were committed you just never heard about them.

One of our most decorated is only on trial now.

That was also an allied war.  USA with great Britain involved against what was in essence a bunch of camel herders.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: General Discussions

Reply #743 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
That was also an allied war.  USA with great Britain involved against what was in essence a bunch of camel herders.
Camel herders with Kalashnikovs and RPGs.

It's interesting, the current Russian predicament is basically a function of the Russian lack of foot soldiers and special forces supporting the Calvary. You can't target foot soldiers with Howitzers and Drones, it doesn't work they are too small and too quick to disperse.

When exposed we put our own war criminals on trial, they won't have to be hunted down by foreign forces.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: General Discussions

Reply #744 –
It still took 20 years and despite the change of government Afghanistan wound up exactly where they started though with the Taliban government in place.

The point being there are no good guys and bad guys.  Just a bunch of nations pushing their interests using small nations as pawns. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: General Discussions

Reply #745 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Afghanistan

20 years later we didn't hear about any of it being a failure 2 months in.

Comparing apples with eggs Thry.

The invasion of Iraq is probably closer but the Iraqi armed forces were larger and better equipped than Ukraine’s.  The significant difference is that Saddam’s forces weren’t re-equipped with sophisticated weaponry but resistance had completely collapsed before that could happen anyway.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!
 

Re: General Discussions

Reply #746 –
Putin has upped the stakes in Ukraine by introducing his ace in the pack nuclear weapon the Sarmat 2, with its high tech defense decoy system its difficult to intercept and Vlad seems to be wanting to deploy it soon so he can have some leverage over NATO and get the Ukraine war back on his terms. Been reports of Vlad suffering from Parkinsons and other health issues, if I was the west I'd be assisting the internal Russian opposition and military who dont want this war escalating to remove Vlad before he decides he has been backed into a corner and has nothing to lose. Think he put the brakes on one of his kids leaving Russia so i reckon he might be light on for supportive family and friends and lunatics with nothing to lose or care about become extra dangerous.

https://au.yahoo.com/news/russia-warns-deploy-satan-2-220805858.html

Re: General Discussions

Reply #747 –
And we now see the folly in the EUs use of Russian energy.  Average prices in the UK expected to hit $6000 per annum sometime in 2022. 

 

Re: General Discussions

Reply #748 –
https://au.news.yahoo.com/russian-tv-hosts-bleak-nuclear-war-prediction-011905108.html

The Iron Doll is one scary woman, be good value for our AFLW team with that evil stare......
I thought Putin was the only nutter in Russia who wanted war but that 60 minutes crew with their ideas on WW3 and heaven etc  show how delusional the thinking is in Russia and that old style cold war propaganda is alive and well.