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Topic: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda (Read 9099 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #180
Mav....both him and Kemp is my thinking. We just look flat through the midfield at the moment. They might not be the solution...who knows...but along with Dow might just change things up a bit.

The Saints have an injury list way worse than ours including both key forwards who have been missing....and they've lost one game by not much to Collingwood. They seem to have adapted. If we'd lost Harry and Charlie combined for the first 4 games I'd suggest we would've been 0-4. King and Membrey aren't Harry and Charlie but they've found a way to conjure enough goals to win, while holding the opposition...even with some key defensive players missing as well....together with some midfielders like Steele, Billings, Jones etc.
And its defending the smalls and mids that worries most about us. We need to find a way.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #181
We really need Pitt to play and play well if we are to have any chance. Marshall is in top form and a break even against him will go a long way to success. I watched the GC v Freo and the difference in the end was Darcy being able to monster their kid in the ruck, Moyle. If Witts had played they would have won comfortably.

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #182
WASurfer, I wouldn’t have a problem if the selectors go that way. But the problem is that we can’t just include players who can tick just 1 box, e.g. speed.

First, we need to replace Saad. He’s one of our main rebounding defenders. He’s good at defending but has elite pace and kicking skills to be able to run the lines. We’ll struggle to find 1 player in the VFL who can tick all those boxes.

The Lyon press makes it hard to work the ball out by foot. That means pace by itself isn’t going to do the job. We’ll just see the ball slingshotting back to our D50. This is the concern with Dow. It would be great to see him bursting forward with the ball but if he turns it over straight away we’ll be in trouble. If he rotates into the centre square quartet, in one sense it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t defend well as no one else did last week therefore we don’t lose much. But it would help our game if he can prevent the Saints feeding the ball out of contests to their runners.

Binns has only had 1 AFL preseason and he’s not a big body. He has elite endurance which suits the wing but we can’t really put him in a man-on-man position or expect him to be an in-and-under. He isn’t blessed with super pace, so we can’t expect him to keep pace with Brad Hill. And his kicking isn’t his strong suit according to the draft gurus which isn’t ideal against the Saints who are itching to intercept and counterattack. We really need our wingers and high half forwards to be hitting our forwards on the chest with raking passes. We don’t want to see the high kicks going to predictable spots that made it easy for the Crows to intercept. LOB hasn’t impressed so far but he does have the ability to hit targets when he doesn’t lose his composure. He was marked harshly for that kick to Harry against Richmond but it was a perfect kick which hit Harry on the chest right in the middle of a number of defenders and it was only Harry’s slip that led to him dropping the mark. Another guy who seems to have the required kicking ability is Jordan Boyd but I can’t imagine that the foot injury would have allowed him to maintain aerobic fitness even if he is available for selection this week.

That said, Binns seems to be a true footballer with elite endurance rather than an athlete who needs to be fed and his form in the VFL is promising. And Hollands has been great out of the gate, so who knows?

Maybe Kemp has the sort of composure and kicking skills we need coming out of defence … I’d have to admit I haven’t seen enough VFL to say. Would he have the ability to handle the midsized Membrey? Perhaps Membrey’s not an ideal match-up for Weets who prefers to stay closer to goal and perhaps is a bit too wily and agile for Young.

What sort of strengths does Cincotta have as a defender? Who would he be be suited to in the likely Saints forward structure? Do we have any other smaller guys who are capable of defending the Saints’ small forwards (who can be dangerous but who aren’t superstars by any means)?

The cupboard isn’t overflowing, is it? That’s not really surprising given that injuries leave us trying to find some rough diamonds in the bottom half of our list.


Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #183
Membrey is a smart footballer who finds space and can also outbody opponents in contests.  Kemp has done well playing on larger key forwards and should be able to cope with Membrey’s strength.  Kemp reads the play well and his marking is very good.  He also has the foot speed to run off Membrey and keep him accountable.  His disposal is generally very good and I’d certainly have him in the 22.

That doesn’t address the gap left by Saad and I think that Cincotta is our only real option.  He doesn’t have Saad’s ability to break the lines (who does?) but he does provide run out off defence and his kicking is good.

If we do play Kemp, Weitering can focus more on intercept marking and distributing the ball from halfback.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #184
Agreed Mav....I don't get to see much of the VFL action at all from over here so can only go on match reports and other comments. Point I guess was really we might need to mix it up a bit because apart from patches in games, we haven't looked that great.

Membrey has torched us a few times in the past and for a bloke who's actually not all that tall, he's very good overhead and I agree, neither Weitering or Young would be ideal match ups. Maybe McGovern goes to him or Kemp as suggested.

I can't remember who the Saints have been playing as second ruckmen but wonder if this is the week to go with just one....Pitto?

I wasn't suggesting Binns comes straight in this week but keen to see him get a gig soon. Hollands surprised us straight off the bat.

Yes we'll miss Saad. But Sinclair for them plays a similar role and from memory, was also AA last year? He plays as an attacking/rebounding half back who gets plenty of the ball.....have we learned anything from last week and maybe send someone to him like Adelaide did with Keays on Saad?

By sheer lack of small/medium defenders, Plowman probably gets a crack again this week.

We need big games from the likes of Acres and our midfield. Remember, Cripps had nearly a dozen goals on the board after round 5 last year but has hardly impacted this year.

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #185
Im pencilling in Membrey for 4 goals, which for Lyon's teams is halfway to a winning score. 

St. Kilda are like a black hole for our team.  Every time we play against them, for some reason they find a way to beat us, even when we are going well, and they arent.  At the moment the inverse is true and I expect them to have some inside knowledge from SOS and Stocker on how to get the win against us.

The saints injury list vs ours is a misnomer.  A new coach means that their top liners being in, might actually have hurt them, as he doesnt have to coach to strengths that are present, he just needs to get everyone playing "the system".  He has done that in true Toss Lyon fashion.  His win rate vs Carlton would be enormous. 

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #186
Membrey is a good mark and a good converter under pressure, he doesnt need many possessions to kick 3-4 goals and Id be playing my best defender on him and forcing him far and wide to make his goal attempts harder.
Its going to sound strange but I would think about playing McGovern on Wilkie...think he has some record for winning the most one on ones in a row and has tasted success against players like Buddy Franklin keeping him to 4 possies in one game so he is a serious player and will be AA this season the way he is travelling.
Likewise in the middle we have to do something about Steele dogging Cripps all game and keeping him quiet while winning a decent amount of ball himself.
Voss and the coaching group were poor last week and need to lift as much as the players and employ some lateral thinking Imho.

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #187
WASurfer, I wouldn’t have a problem if the selectors go that way. But the problem is that we can’t just include players who can tick just 1 box, e.g. speed.

First, we need to replace Saad. He’s one of our main rebounding defenders. He’s good at defending but has elite pace and kicking skills to be able to run the lines. We’ll struggle to find 1 player in the VFL who can tick all those boxes.

The Lyon press makes it hard to work the ball out by foot. That means pace by itself isn’t going to do the job. We’ll just see the ball slingshotting back to our D50. This is the concern with Dow. It would be great to see him bursting forward with the ball but if he turns it over straight away we’ll be in trouble. If he rotates into the centre square quartet, in one sense it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t defend well as no one else did last week therefore we don’t lose much. But it would help our game if he can prevent the Saints feeding the ball out of contests to their runners.

Binns has only had 1 AFL preseason and he’s not a big body. He has elite endurance which suits the wing but we can’t really put him in a man-on-man position or expect him to be an in-and-under. He isn’t blessed with super pace, so we can’t expect him to keep pace with Brad Hill. And his kicking isn’t his strong suit according to the draft gurus which isn’t ideal against the Saints who are itching to intercept and counterattack. We really need our wingers and high half forwards to be hitting our forwards on the chest with raking passes. We don’t want to see the high kicks going to predictable spots that made it easy for the Crows to intercept. LOB hasn’t impressed so far but he does have the ability to hit targets when he doesn’t lose his composure. He was marked harshly for that kick to Harry against Richmond but it was a perfect kick which hit Harry on the chest right in the middle of a number of defenders and it was only Harry’s slip that led to him dropping the mark. Another guy who seems to have the required kicking ability is Jordan Boyd but I can’t imagine that the foot injury would have allowed him to maintain aerobic fitness even if he is available for selection this week.

That said, Binns seems to be a true footballer with elite endurance rather than an athlete who needs to be fed and his form in the VFL is promising. And Hollands has been great out of the gate, so who knows?

Maybe Kemp has the sort of composure and kicking skills we need coming out of defence … I’d have to admit I haven’t seen enough VFL to say. Would he have the ability to handle the midsized Membrey? Perhaps Membrey’s not an ideal match-up for Weets who prefers to stay closer to goal and perhaps is a bit too wily and agile for Young.

What sort of strengths does Cincotta have as a defender? Who would he be be suited to in the likely Saints forward structure? Do we have any other smaller guys who are capable of defending the Saints’ small forwards (who can be dangerous but who aren’t superstars by any means)?

The cupboard isn’t overflowing, is it? That’s not really surprising given that injuries leave us trying to find some rough diamonds in the bottom half of our list.


Weiters stated on the Whately show the other morning he will get Membrey if he plays.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #188
This will be a big test for Vossy and crew.

If we are going to be a Top 8 contender we need to bounce back
from that tripe last week. I stupidly thought the 10 goal floggings were gone.

I expect the MC to make minimal changes, they will put it on the players to turn it around.  Looking at the VFL Kemp or Cincotto for Saad.

Watched the Aints closely last week. Their half-backs get heaps of ball and set-up well. Especially Hill. Won't be high scoring because of the Lyon Press. They love the scrap for the ball and are very hard at it.

Worrying signs if we get another flogging,  probably good they have the WC seconds next week.














Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #189
This will be a big test for Vossy and crew.

If we are going to be a Top 8 contender we need to bounce back
from that tripe last week. I stupidly thought the 10 goal floggings were gone.

I expect the MC to make minimal changes, they will put it on the players to turn it around.  Looking at the VFL Kemp or Cincotto for Saad.

Watched the Aints closely last week. Their half-backs get heaps of ball and set-up well. Especially Hill. Won't be high scoring because of the Lyon Press. They love the scrap for the ball and are very hard at it.

Worrying signs if we get another flogging,  probably good they have the WC seconds next week.














SH I get the "back the players in" and "put in on the players" approach but in my mind, it promotes mediocrity if you do it for a long time. Its a band-aid approach. We have been doing this for far too long and it becomes a cycle. That is:
- Lose badly
- Back the Players
- Bounce back for a win
- Win a few, lose a few
- Lose Badly
and so on.
At what point does the MC need to make a statement?
We have players playing very well in the 2's:
- Dow, Kemp, Cincotta, Fogarty, Binns)
We have absolute passengers week in week out in the 1s:
- Fisher Honey Plowman (albeit for one week) SOS (as hard as he tries and gets thrown around)
Nuffs enuff.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #190
I've been reading articles about the Saints Pies game - the Saints apparently are No1 for boundary ball movement, and the Pies (and McRae) blocked the boundary, forcing the Saints to go inboard, forcing turnovers which were pounced on by the Pies. The talk is that this tactic basically won Collingwood the game.

Food for thought Vossy and Co...........

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/04/18/champion-data-reveals-how-mcraes-bizarre-plan-forced-saints-into-near-record/

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #191
How many more rounds before we start a "Voss versus Ross" thread? If they keep winning and we keep spluttering...
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

 

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #192
Hoping for the following changes this week
Out: Saad, Plow, Hewitt/Ed, Pitto or SOS
In: Kemp, Cincotta, Dow, Gov
Sub: Ed
Honey loses his sub role

Think Hewy needs a rest to get over the hand, if he's ok to go I'd drop Ed. Dow needs another chance and we need the pace.
I think we have to reassess whether we can play 2 rucks and SOS, especially as TDK needs to develop his forward work.

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #193
Weiters stated on the Whately show the other morning he will get Membrey if he plays.
I’m not sure it was that clear cut, GIC. The relevant bit was at about the 13:30 minute mark:
https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/1311604/weitering-on-gather-round-saints-preview?videoId=1311604&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1681880046001

Re: AFL Rd 6 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs St. Kilda

Reply #194
The other week I went with friends to the VFL game between Sandringham and Gold Coast at the revamped Saints ground at Moorabbin.

 With approximately 200 people in attendance and the ability to wander onto the field at quarter and three quarter time to listen to the coaches,  I was reminded of local district matches I attended years ago.

There was a complete lack of atmosphere and this was reflected in the lack of pressure applied by the players during the game. 

My lasting impression of the game is that it showed quite starkly the gulf in ability of players in the VFL compared with  AFL.

As pathetic as some on our list are, I would be reluctant to bring in more than two from our VFL ranks this week.