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Topic: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets. (Read 5246 times) previous topic - next topic
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Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1135156/target-acquired-who-your-club-aims-for-inside-50
From the article....
Targets inside 50 for the year.
Carlton: Charlie Curnow (95), Harry McKay (84), Tom De Koning (21)

Looking at some other stats on our big 3 forwards...
Charlie - Harry - TDK
   29   -   24   -   7   -   Goals
   18   -   12   -   8   -   Behinds
   50   -   45   -  16  -   Shots on goal
     3   -    9    -    1  -   Complete misses
 58%  - 53%  - 44% -  Goal accuracy % (from total shots on goal, including misses)

   28   -   29   -   10  -  Marks inside 50.

   49   -   43   -  73  - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)
   31   -   29   -  33  - Targets leading to goal (%)
   29   -   35   -  48  - Targets leading to marks inside 50 (%)

OK, so thats the facts. What does it all mean.

Lets make a couple observations
- Charlie is our best shot on goal. Harry has improved remarkably, but still misses completely more than he should, but even with those misses, is more likely than TDK to kick a goal once he has a shot.
- Despite being targetted less, we are more likely to get a shot at goal, an actual goal and a mark inside 50, when we target TDK. This should be common sense really. Everyone knows we go to Harry and Charlie the most, so they get the best defenders and they get the 3rd man in helping out as well. So, by default, TDK (and everyone else in the team) get lesser defenders and less attention paid to them.

So, my take home point is this.
SPREAD THE LOAD!
Our scoring will be better if we learn to target other players.

Stop directing the ball to Harry and Charlie constantly and try and use some other forwards more often.
We have been lacking a 3rd tall most of the year (remembering TDK playing #1 ruck first half of the year) and not having Jack Silvagni available....and not having Jack Martin available much either. I'd really like to see us target this area ASAP or shoehorn someone into this role ASAP - Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank is 1 too many '3rd talls' to play down back. Try one up forward??

If there is enough interest, i might do some comparisons of other forwards (teams?) and see how we compare.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #1 –
It's not really feasible to make conclusions about the absence of presence of SoJ or Martin unless the same analysis is done when they were available, and in context the circumstance is not the same season to season, so I doubt it holds much relevance.

Interesting that our current Top 3 are last years Top 3, Owies 3rd again, yet fans want Owies dropped. The thing we are missing so far this season are the other medium small forwards in Motlop and Martin who were 4th and 5th in 2023. In 2024 Cottrell and TDK are 4th and 5th.

I'm not sure the accuracy stats mean much, Charlie has quite a few goals from Joe the Goose type scores roving the back of the pack, I've already discussed that in another thread. Both Harry and Charlie have missed goals from almost point blank, and from shots near the point of the 50m, so the mix of who gets shots where would be important. The media hysteria colours fan perceptions, but I can't say Charlie is much more reliable than Harry in the moment.

The complete miss itself isn't a value stat, because it records no context.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #2 –
Krudds,

“  49   -   43   -  73  - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)”

Is this the % of times these 3 are the target and we get a shot on goal as a result ?
If so, I’d read that as no one crumbing Charlie and H ‘cause they don’t drop many but they are roving to TDK because he seems to spill most of his chances ?
Let’s go BIG !

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #3 –
The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.

One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50.   Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.

Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target.  We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #4 –
Defence has been our problem this year.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #5 –
Quote from: DJC – on
The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.

One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50.   Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.

Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target.  We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.

we need fogarty back in and motlop is how i read this.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #6 –
Only 3 teams kick more goals than us.
Only 4 teams concede more goals than us.

Sydney kick the most goals and concede the least.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!
 

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #7 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Defence has been our problem this year.
Defending has been our problem this year but it's not our D50 group that are the cause.

I think even in the absence of Doc and Saad, the group including Weiters, McGovern, Newman, Boyd, Williams, Young, Cincotta, Cowan and Kemp have done OK.

Oddly, our problems in F50 are probably caused by the absence of Saad and Doc from our D50, and it gets compounded when Kemp or McGovern are out.

AFL is a game of opposites, if you are being scored against too easily, the problem is most likely a combination of Forwards and Mids, if you can't score the problem is most likely a mix of Halfbacks and Mids.

I think our biggest problem is that we've wasted periods of domination, quarters or halves where the opposition barely touched the footy yet we couldn't score. Not a single easy win despite kicking 5, 6 or 7 goals in a row, it's hurting us as the season grows longer. We let opponents back into the game too easily, when we should actually have our foot on the oppositions throat.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #8 –
Quote from: LP – on
It's not really feasible to make conclusions about the absence of presence of SoJ or Martin unless the same analysis is done when they were available, and in context the circumstance is not the same season to season, so I doubt it holds much relevance.

Sigh, you've completely missed this point.

I'm not doing a comparison to TDK vs them.
What i'm saying is we don't have a fit 3rd tall forward apart from TDK.
What i'm saying is more talented forward options available clearly means we have more genuine targetting options to choose from, making us less reliant on Charlie and Harry.

Its the same thing when we had Fev. We didn't have many other genuine options over the years that we could target, so opposition knew where the ball was going and it made it easier for them.
Unpredictability to the opposition is your friend.
Being able to capitilise on that unpredictability is what we are lacking without other talented forwards in the team.

I've ignored small forwards in this debate, but same can be said for them as well.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #9 –
Quote from: northernblue – on
Krudds,

“  49   -   43   -  73  - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)”

Is this the % of times these 3 are the target and we get a shot on goal as a result ?
If so, I’d read that as no one crumbing Charlie and H ‘cause they don’t drop many but they are roving to TDK because he seems to spill most of his chances ?

Yes....but not necessarily by the player we target.

TDKs could be so high, not necessarily because he takes marks, but because he doesn't get outmarked. Crumbing goals count if/when we target any player
Harry and Charlie may get outmarked more as a result which will never lead to a shot on goal.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #10 –
Quote from: DJC – on
The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

Not entirely true.

If we target TDK, and Charlie crumbs the ball and kicks a goal. That goes down as goal scored from a TDK target, even though he may have had little bearing on the contest.

As mentioned earlier, its as much about not being outmarked as much as anything.

Quote from: DJC – on
In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.
...and that is shown in the stats. It doesn't matter if he marks and goals after he is targetted. It doesn't matter if he doesn't mark but goals. It doesn't even matter if he doesn't mark and someone else kicks a goal. It all goes down as a goal from targetting him.

Quote from: DJC – on
One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50.   Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.
How often? Or how infrequent??

Quote from: DJC – on
Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target.  We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.
As mentioned, some of those goals are already included. We are not simply counting 'Tony Lockett goals' ("Lead, mark, kick a goal" - thank you music men) We are counting goals from targets regardless of how it happens.

The last point you made, and one i made above, is i'm ignoring the small forwards, but its equally as valid as medium forwards.
We need more talent in this area. We need to SPREAD THE LOAD from our 2 key forwards. When we go elsewhere, we are better off. Stats show this.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #11 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Only 3 teams kick more goals than us.
Only 4 teams concede more goals than us.

Sydney kick the most goals and concede the least.

I'm not going down the defending debate as we can save that for another thread. But in terms of attacking numbers.

Why do 3 teams kick more goals than us?
We have the best 2 key forwards in the game. They have won the last 3 coleman medals between them. Charlie is =1st currently and Harry is 6th (i think) so they are continuing to do their job.

The fact that somehow 3 teams are still outscoring us is backing up my point.
We need to find more avenues to goal.
We need to be less predictable.
Everygame we have lost has been when those 2 key forwards have had their worst games.
Stop Charlie+Harry stop carlton.

.......unless we get smarter and start using other players and.....yep....SPREAD THE LOAD.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #12 –
I think the massive offer to Hayward shows there is concern from the footy dept we are a bit Charlie/Harry centric and need other goal avenue alternatives, especially with Martin intermittent in appearances and JSOS injured long term.
Premiership teams of recent years have had that variety and we lack that Fritsch, Heeney, O.Henry, Townsend, Dickson, J.Elliott marking type who can also be a threat at ground level and its compounded by our lack of a consistent small forward/s who can kick a bag of goals every now and then and also we lack the midfielders who can kick go forward and kick a bag too...
Sydney have average input from Amartey, McDonald and Mclean but the variety with Papley, Hayward, Heeney and Warner seems to offset not having dominant bigs and probably helps even more in poor conditions when marking is more difficult.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #13 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Only 3 teams kick more goals than us.
Only 4 teams concede more goals than us.

Sydney kick the most goals and concede the least.

EOS
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership