Carlton Supporters Club

For once I find myself agreeing with Taco:

"You know what's a war crime? Allowing a sick country with demented leadership to have a nuclear weapon."

Hopefully he'll be frogmarched into the ICC before too long.

It's a strange and worrying situation....
Half the countries with nuclear weapons are sick countries with demented leaders.
And India and Pakistan are only a wrong step away from all out war.

Let's hope it holds and there's peace in the Middle East.

Ceasefire!

Let's hope it holds and there's peace in the Middle East.

What we’re actually seeing (right now)
1) Ceasefire exists — but it’s not clean
It’s a 2-week, temporary ceasefire brokered under pressure
It’s conditional, not a full settlement (Hormuz reopening is a key trade-off)

👉 That alone tells you:
This isn’t “peace” — it’s a pause with strings attached

2) Active violations / ambiguity already happening
Israel is still striking in Lebanon
Iran says that should be covered by the ceasefire
US/Israel say it’s not included

👉 This is the biggest red flag:
The parties don’t even agree on what the ceasefire means

3) Proxy war hasn’t stopped
Ongoing strikes in Lebanon
Gulf states still reporting attacks
Iran threatening retaliation again

👉 Translation:
The main war paused — the regional war did not

4) Hormuz is “open”… but not really
Iran is allowing passage under its control/approval
Threats still in place
Shipping companies hesitant, may take months to normalise

👉 This is critical:
The economic weapon is still loaded

5) Markets reacted… but cautiously
Oil dropped ~15% on announcement
But underlying disruption remains

👉 That fits exactly with:
Relief rally, not resolution

6) Internal + political instability remains
Iranian public reaction = mixed, mistrustful
Hardliners unhappy
Leadership framing it as a “win” despite climbdown

👉 That matters because:
Fragile domestic politics = higher chance of re-escalation

⚖️ What this tells you (no spin)

This is not a stable ceasefire.

It has three structural weaknesses:

⚠️ 1) No shared definition of the deal
Lebanon disagreement alone can restart escalation
Each side interpreting rules differently

👉 This is how ceasefires collapse.

⚠️ 2) Core issues are unresolved
Iran’s nuclear position
Sanctions
Regional proxy activity
Control of Hormuz

👉 Nothing fundamental has been settled.

⚠️ 3) Military posture hasn’t reset
Forces still active
Strikes still occurring
Threats still live

👉 This is a pause in fighting, not disengagement

📊 So how does this usually play out?

Based on pattern + what we’re seeing:

🎯 Most likely: “Leaky ceasefire” (60–70%)

What that looks like:

Violations continue (Lebanon, proxies)
Both sides accuse each other
But neither fully walks away

👉 Outcome:

Ceasefire technically holds
Conflict continues at lower intensity

This is the most common outcome in these situations

⚠️ Second scenario: Breakdown within days/weeks (20–30%)

Trigger:

Major strike in Lebanon
Iranian retaliation
Hormuz incident

👉 Then:

Rapid return to escalation
Markets reverse hard
🟢 Less likely: Stabilisation into real diplomacy (10–20%)

Requires:

Clear agreement on scope (especially Lebanon)
Hormuz fully normalised
Proxy activity reduced

👉 Right now:
We are not seeing enough evidence of this yet

📉 What your “market instinct” is picking up

The ASX wobble you mentioned?

👉 It’s reacting to this exact setup:

Relief (ceasefire) ✅
But:
Uncertainty remains
Risk of snapback escalation
Economic damage still real

So markets are basically saying:

“Good news… but we don’t trust it.”

🧠 My blunt read

This ceasefire looks like:

👉 Forced, fast, and incomplete

Not:

Negotiated thoroughly
Not clearly defined
Not backed by aligned incentives yet
🧭 What to watch over the next 72 hours

This is the key window.

If you see:
Strikes in Lebanon continue
Iran retaliates
Hormuz threats reappear

👉 Ceasefire starts failing

If you see:
Lebanon quiets down
Shipping increases
No major incidents

👉 Ceasefire stabilising

🧾 Bottom line
You’re right — it’s shaky
This is a pause, not peace
The system is still highly unstable underneath
🧠 One-liner

“The shooting paused, but the conflict hasn’t actually stopped.”

Watching the ASX, yep, it looks like no one really trusts whats going on.  Also Trump is about as reliable as a broken clock.  He gets a couple of things right, and then swings around wildly.  The markets are hard to read, as he tends to put information out there that is provocative on purpose, and manipulates things to suit his buddies most likely as well, so keep that in the back of your mind.  Economic indicators are absolutely worth following here, as they tend to show whats going on, and right now, the markets have not decided whether or not this ceasefire will hold.