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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #225 –
Lods...
There is no point finding evidence to disprove those claims as we are drifting further and further away from the point.

The point is you and others like you are putting down outgoings and pumping up incomings.

Simply compare people's thoughts pre trade period and post trade period and you'll see the hypocrisy involved.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #226 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Lods...
There is no point finding evidence to disprove those claims as we are drifting further and further away from the point.

The point is you and others like you are putting down outgoings and pumping up incomings.

Simply compare people's thoughts pre trade period and post trade period and you'll see the hypocrisy involved.

No, what we're doing is saying it's not necessarily the case that all the out going players can't be more than covered by the new players and growth in some of the youngsters.
As well as that we should hopefully get relief from some of the disruption and division of last year...and injuries in both 2024 and 2025.
It's two years in a row that our lists have been put under pressure we don't often experience.

So as a result there is no reason for us to sink further into the mire.

It's as simple as that.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #227 –
Quote from: Lods – on
No, what we're doing is saying it's not necessarily the case that all the out going players can't be more than covered by the new players and growth in some of the youngsters.
As well as that we should hopefully get relief from some of the disruption and division of last year...and injuries in both 2024 and 2025.
It's two years in a row that our lists have been put under pressure we don't often experience.

So as a result there is no reason for us to sink further into the mire.

It's as simple as that.

There's also the availability of three nominally best 23 players in Smith, Newman and Kemp who were sadly missed last season.

We had three players choose to leave for whatever reasons.  You can debate the impact of their departures or their worth but only one of the three was rated in the top 50 players coming in the 2025 season (Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was included!).  None made the end of season top 50.  Two of them are currently unable to train because of recurring injuries and the third has a dicky knee.

Of the other departures, one decided that he was cooked, another was told that he was cooked, one was traded for a packet of chips and the other five were delisted after managing a total of 104 games between them (and two of them accounted for 81 of those games).  It's pretty clear to me that our list managers, with their comprehensive knowledge of player analytics and player availability, were confident that we could bring in better players.  That's really the crux of the matter, and time will tell, but it's worth noting none of our new players are delisted free agents or State league hacks.  We have gone for three players with runs on the board and in the prime of their careers, two youngsters with potential, two very highly ranked draft picks, and one speculative draft pick.  Then there's the natural progression of the youngsters with another pre-season under their belt.

It's true that we didn't draft a KPF who could have spent a season or two in the VFL, but so what?  By any reasoned analysis, our list is better placed now than it was in 2025.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #228 –
For mine Kemp is the wildcard addition.  Played 5 games in 2025.  If he can get anywhere near 15 games and 30 goals, we are well on our way to covering the absence of Charlie's 2025.  Only need to have Hayward and Ainsworth chime in to cover the rest and goal output could very well improve.  Ditto Skull who only played a handful of games and kicked 1 or 2 goals. 

TDK isnt coverable as a like for like, but as Kruddler has written, his output is shaded by Pittonet.  So a servicable ruck backfilled is all we need to break even there.

JSOS.  11 games played without going off early (and thats not including Geelong where he ended up with a hand injury.

We played as much good footy without him as we did with him.

See, this isnt a like for like comparison coverage, but an example of the outgoing of 2025 has star quality, but not necessarily star output in our 2025.  So to finish near the wildcard spots, we just need a little improvement on 2025 and ill point out, that form across the board was very patchy.



"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #229 –
Career averages suggest we will be down.
Let’s go BIG !

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #230 –
Quote from: northernblue – on
Career averages suggest we will be down.

Career averages tend to be a bit reliant on situations and roles.
With Charlie moving on then Harry's goal tally will probably increase, as will his average per game.

Others in the forward line who may have played a secondary role will take more responsibility, and their averages will also increase.
Players who shared duties may suddenly have more time on ground and as a result their average per game will increase.
Efficiency also will come into play.
A more efficient player may not have the same numbers in terms of average disposals per game, but could do a lot more damage than someone who gets it a lot, but doesn't really hurt the opposition.

We're really yet to see what the new guys are capable of in different surroundings.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #231 –
Whilst I understand your viewpoint I don’t share your enthusiasm Lods.
Doesn’t matter how many pigs ears we’ve got, we ain’t going to be a high end supplier of silk purses.
But it is what it is and we’ll see what we can make of it.
Let’s go BIG !

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #232 –
Quote from: northernblue – on
Whilst I understand your viewpoint I don’t share your enthusiasm Lods.
Doesn’t matter how many pigs ears we’ve got, we ain’t going to be a high end supplier of silk purses.
But it is what it is and we’ll see what we can make of it.

It's 'to be determined'
With a bit of bad luck again with injury we could drop further.
A reasonable amount of luck (and we're overdue) and a break even position is more than likely.
A bit of development from the youngsters, the trades and draftees working in well...and none of the division and distraction of this year and a move up the ladder a few spots is more than possible.

Up one spot and we're playing finals (whatever they might like to call it) ;)

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #233 –
Ill say one thing about the talls from this draft.  With Tassie joining in shortly, these talls are going to get more opportunities in future to make it, as there will be a limited bunch that are any good.  Letting others take them in this draft, might ensure there are more available in the next and I also expect that any keys that are floating around will get more opportunities as a result.  I reckon Essendon might have one or two that will be free to a good home at the end of next season too, as they went recruiting as many as they could in 2025 to fill in temporary holes.

For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think an average result for us will be in the wildcard places.  Wont be happy, wont be dissapointed, but missing that without some extenuating circumstances will mean time for a new coach.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #234 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think everyone would argue that they are 'realists'. :D
But the 6 to 12 seems pretty realistic.
I'd probably even tighten it a bit more to that 7-10 wild-card area.
One problem that may present itself for Voss will be that it may take a bit of time for the new players to gel.
As a result we may finish the season better than we start it.
If that results in some early struggles to the half way mark it may put a bit of pressure on the coach.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #235 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think everyone would argue that they are 'realists'. :D
But the 6 to 12 seems pretty realistic.
I'd probably even tighten it a bit more to that 7-10 wild-card area.
One problem that may present itself for Voss will be that it may take a bit of time for the new players to gel.
As a result we may finish the season better than we start it.
If that results in some early struggles to the half way mark it may put a bit of pressure on the coach.

The start of the year is harder than the end of the year where we have a run of games in Melbourne.

What will happen is everyone expecting finals will be in for a shock at the start of the year while we wait for players to gel, our new game plan to be worked out and results will suffer. People will lose their mind and Carlton will be Carlton and we'll sack the coach and go full rebuild as a result.

If we can lower our expectations, realise that we will be pretty screwed for the first half of the year and hold firm until the back half which should net more wins, then we might be half ok.
I expect supporters to burn the place down before we get that far though.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #236 –
^^ Thankfully most people think we are worse off sans charlie tdk and jsos so arent expecting much.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #237 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Ill say one thing about the talls from this draft.  With Tassie joining in shortly, these talls are going to get more opportunities in future to make it, as there will be a limited bunch that are any good.  Letting others take them in this draft, might ensure there are more available in the next and I also expect that any keys that are floating around will get more opportunities as a result.  I reckon Essendon might have one or two that will be free to a good home at the end of next season too, as they went recruiting as many as they could in 2025 to fill in temporary holes.

For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think an average result for us will be in the wildcard places.  Wont be happy, wont be dissapointed, but missing that without some extenuating circumstances will mean time for a new coach.

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, but i'm missing something.

Are you saying there will be more talls available next year because teams like Essendon have extra talls so some will be available?
Isn't that us hoping to secure rejects from other teams? Is that the best way to go about it??

I really don't like a list management strategy that relies on other teams giving us what we need. Its destined for failure.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #238 –
We really won't 'know' how good (or otherwise) this group/list is, until the heat of battle next year. Can't wait.

I find myself optimistic about 2026. But I'm the same before the beginning of most seasons.

Bottom line is that there are so many moving parts, so many variables and 17 other clubs going through much the same as us. Soooo many IFs.

The number 1 IF would be for a healthy list giving us the very best chance to show our best. Already being without HOF is a concern.
The number 2 IF would be for how long it will take this list to gel, considering the number of new faces.
And the number 3 IF would be our skills and ability to move the aggott quickly (and accurately). We know our pressure and contest is in the top bracket but can we successfully integrate a deadly offensive game?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #239 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Ill say one thing about the talls from this draft.  With Tassie joining in shortly, these talls are going to get more opportunities in future to make it, as there will be a limited bunch that are any good.  Letting others take them in this draft, might ensure there are more available in the next and I also expect that any keys that are floating around will get more opportunities as a result.  I reckon Essendon might have one or two that will be free to a good home at the end of next season too, as they went recruiting as many as they could in 2025 to fill in temporary holes.

For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist.  I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026.  Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season.  Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th.  If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag.  Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either. 

I think an average result for us will be in the wildcard places.  Wont be happy, wont be dissapointed, but missing that without some extenuating circumstances will mean time for a new coach.

I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, but i'm missing something.

Are you saying there will be more talls available next year because teams like Essendon have extra talls so some will be available?
Isn't that us hoping to secure rejects from other teams? Is that the best way to go about it??

I really don't like a list management strategy that relies on other teams giving us what we need. Its destined for failure.
Nope.  This years bunch might be bog ordinary.  Because so many have been taken the talls from next year might not be on everyone's radar.

Also, the ones taken now are going to get more chances to make it because the new team will require an additional 6 key position players minimum as part of their talent pool. 

So, the key position players taken in 2025, might prevent you from getting a good or really good one in the next draft based on how the talent was rated.

We wont know for years
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson