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Topic: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat (Read 21110 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #270 –
Looking at those past finishes, Carlton has been in the dead zone. There are reasons and explanations but facts are facts. I am reasonably confident about how this year's trade and draft went, despite players we lost, but we should know pretty early whether we are going to be mediocre again this year.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #271 –
Quote from: Blue Moon – on
Looking at those past finishes, Carlton has been in the dead zone. There are reasons and explanations but facts are facts. I am reasonably confident about how this year's trade and draft went, despite players we lost, but we should know pretty early whether we are going to be mediocre again this year.

That's the bottom line.
How next year pans out.
Everything else is just a guess.
My own feeling is we may start a little slowly as the new players find their place, and then be better later in the year.
That may not be the best for Voss, but hopefully he gets the whole year for judgement.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #272 –
Quote from: Lods – on
The bar isn't set low.
It's set unrealistically high by ignoring all that occurred with the club during the season just gone.

All any supporter can ask for is continued improvement each year.
But that path is rarely a straight line and there will be peaks and troughs which usually occur around the availability of players.

He gets a pass because we had injuries?
Its not the injuries that killed us, it was the lack of talent behind our starters that killed us.

Now who would be responsible for that?
Perhaps if we didn't have 13 small forwards on the list we could've coped with injuries better?

The lack of a balanced most was exposed by injuries and he still gets a free pass out of it?

Its all tied together.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #273 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
The bar isn't set low.
It's set unrealistically high by ignoring all that occurred with the club during the season just gone.

All any supporter can ask for is continued improvement each year.
But that path is rarely a straight line and there will be peaks and troughs which usually occur around the availability of players.

He gets a pass because we had injuries?
Its not the injuries that killed us, it was the lack of talent behind our starters that killed us.

Now who would be responsible for that?
Perhaps if we didn't have 13 small forwards on the list we could've coped with injuries better?

The lack of a balanced most was exposed by injuries and he still gets a free pass out of it?

Its all tied together.

The injuries weren't all to talls.
All lines were affected.
And so he adds to the depth in the latest draft with...A tall, a mid and a small...and trades in some goal kicking ability.
Depth seems to have been a priority...still he cops it.
The use of the term a 'free pass' is a bit nonsensical given the criticism from some areas.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #274 –
I don't think anyone would question the time and effort Kruddler puts into his analysis of list management and other discussion points.  However, there's plenty to question about his methodology, assumptions and conclusions, and that's what helps make this place tick.

Again, I don't think anyone here would be unhappy if we were to draft the next Jonathan Brown, but there's a much greater chance that any club hoping for a Jonathan Brown will end up with a Jonathon Patton.  Bringing in another Stephen Kernahan via trade or free agency would be far more likely to be successful.

The scuttlebutt is that we were interested in Louis Emmett but the Bulldogs snapped him up.  Would the "draft a KPF" crew been happy with that?  What about if the rest of the scuttlebutt is correct and he's going to be developed as a KPD?

What annoys me about the criticism of our list management team's work at the draft is not so much the bleating about not picking a KPF, no matter how banged up or unready for AFL he might have been.  It's the downplaying of the fact that we snared the best KPP in the draft.  All I read is 'he can't play on 200cm KPFs', 'we only got him because he's a father-son pick', 'he won't be ready for AFL', he's too short', 'he won't be as good as Jack', 'we've put all our eggs in one basket', 'we should have drafted a KPF instead of a KPD', why didn't we draft a State league KPP?', 'we could have taken [insert any delisted rookie KPP]' ...

Drafting Harry Dean (and Jack Ison) was a masterclass in NGA player development and astute list management.  That is probably why both Fox and ESPN rate our work at the draft as equal third best ... but what would they know?  And they're probably following an agenda.

"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #275 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Most of the players from 2023 were SOS's

players that werent:

Hewett
Saad
Cerra
Acres
Docherty
Cripps
O. Hollands
Motlop
Jordan Boyd
Cincotta


All recruited without sos input, all played significant footy in 2023 (19 games or more).

Its not that sos did a job and Austin stuffed it.  You cant argue we ever rise up the ladder with one or the other.  Austin recognised some weaknesses and didnt build on the team probably because our hands were tied salary cap wise so we went young.

I've written it before, our time was then, and luck with injury robbed us more than anything else but last year you can make that case again, but the game is changing again. 5 on the bench with 75 rotations.

We have changed it up significantly because as close as we were one or two players wasn't enough to bridge the gap to the best of the best and we all know

SOS did a decent job with the list but a lot of his draft selections missed the mark.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #276 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I don't think anyone would question the time and effort Kruddler puts into his analysis of list management and other discussion points.  However, there's plenty to question about his methodology, assumptions and conclusions, and that's what helps make this place tick.

Again, I don't think anyone here would be unhappy if we were to draft the next Jonathan Brown, but there's a much greater chance that any club hoping for a Jonathan Brown will end up with a Jonathon Patton.  Bringing in another Stephen Kernahan via trade or free agency would be far more likely to be successful.

The scuttlebutt is that we were interested in Louis Emmett but the Bulldogs snapped him up.  Would the "draft a KPF" crew been happy with that?  What about if the rest of the scuttlebutt is correct and he's going to be developed as a KPD?

What annoys me about the criticism of our list management team's work at the draft is not so much the bleating about not picking a KPF, no matter how banged up or unready for AFL he might have been.  It's the downplaying of the fact that we snared the best KPP in the draft.  All I read is 'he can't play on 200cm KPFs', 'we only got him because he's a father-son pick', 'he won't be ready for AFL', he's too short', 'he won't be as good as Jack', 'we've put all our eggs in one basket', 'we should have drafted a KPF instead of a KPD', why didn't we draft a State league KPP?', 'we could have taken [insert any delisted rookie KPP]' ...

Drafting Harry Dean (and Jack Ison) was a masterclass in NGA player development and astute list management.  That is probably why both Fox and ESPN rate our work at the draft as equal third best ... but what would they know?  And they're probably following an agenda.

1. Forget about any outside ratings. It's based on one years work and 1 year only.
2. Nobody is complaining about Harry Dean. I made 1 comment about a perceived weakness and that was confirmed. That doesn't mean we delist him now. Everyone had weaknesses. Move on.
3. Why do you give kudos to the list managers for drafting people we've had developing for years? That is shooting fish in a barrel. Kudos to the club for developing an academy that is starting to pay off. Not rocket science to take them.

What is it about my methodology that needs questioning?
Any assumptions and conclusions can be argued as is the nature of assumptions and conclusions.

As for emmett, you miss the point again. "Oh he is no good because he will be a defender?"  Maybe.
Remember where the name came from... the club.... albeit indirectly.
I don't care if it was him or whoever. That's not the point. The point is the club failed to fill a need, and one they highlighted... and it was really easy to change that.... but they didn't.

Perhaps you should be questioning why the club wanted him at all if he is a defender?! Or is that not possible because they are not to be questioned or spoken bad about.

I sunset how happy you'll be after another poor year

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #277 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Thing with being average and changing the way you do things, it can also leave you further behind the rest as a result
Sure, it's a risk, but doing the same thing over and over again,,............... well we know what that means!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #278 –
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Thing with being average and changing the way you do things, it can also leave you further behind the rest as a result
Sure, it's a risk, but doing the same thing over and over again,,............... well we know what that means!

I would argue that as a prelim side, drastic measures were not required, but rather staying the course wouldve yielded better results.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #279 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: LP – on

Sure, it's a risk, but doing the same thing over and over again,,............... well we know what that means!

I would argue that as a prelim side, drastic measures were not required, but rather staying the course wouldve yielded better results.

And I would argue that as a preliminary final side in '23, we were brittle as evidenced by the result. How did Charles perform in that finals series? The cracks were there to the objective observer. In terms of the coaching group (leadership)... we did stay the course and the results for 2024/5 worsened each year.

To assume that because you make a preliminary final you'll just naturally, even magically, improve the next year is naive at best... hubris at worst.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17
 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #280 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


I would argue that as a prelim side, drastic measures were not required, but rather staying the course wouldve yielded better results.

And I would argue that as a preliminary final side in '23, we were brittle as evidenced by the result. How did Charles perform in that finals series? The cracks were there to the objective observer. In terms of the coaching group (leadership)... we did stay the course and the results for 2024/5 worsened each year.

To assume that because you make a preliminary final you'll just naturally, even magically, improve the next year is naive at best... hubris at worst.

2 sides to every coin.

How well did we do with Charlie doing nothing? Imagine if we get him up to speed and added depth around him, rather than losing depth. Thats not so 'magical' now is it?

Results did worsen, but thats about the playing list rather than the coaching.
Even Docherty said as much post retirement.....thats if you don't want to take my word for it which was well documented at the time as well.

....and one last thing.
The result 'proves' we were brittle?

In case you are unaware, that team that showed how 'brittle' we were, were a goal off having a 3-peat.....and we had them 5 goals down on their home deck early.
Doesn't seem brittle to me. Seems to have been beaten by the best side in the modern game right now

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #281 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Baggers – on


And I would argue that as a preliminary final side in '23, we were brittle as evidenced by the result. How did Charles perform in that finals series? The cracks were there to the objective observer. In terms of the coaching group (leadership)... we did stay the course and the results for 2024/5 worsened each year.

To assume that because you make a preliminary final you'll just naturally, even magically, improve the next year is naive at best... hubris at worst.

2 sides to every coin.

How well did we do with Charlie doing nothing? Imagine if we get him up to speed and added depth around him, rather than losing depth. Thats not so 'magical' now is it?

Results did worsen, but thats about the playing list rather than the coaching.
Even Docherty said as much post retirement.....thats if you don't want to take my word for it which was well documented at the time as well.

....and one last thing.
The result 'proves' we were brittle?

In case you are unaware, that team that showed how 'brittle' we were, were a goal off having a 3-peat.....and we had them 5 goals down on their home deck early.
Doesn't seem brittle to me. Seems to have been beaten by the best side in the modern game right now

So are you saying our list manager had built a side capable of winning a flag :D  :D

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #282 –
One point that we don't tend to mention much when we talk about injuries, is that it almost thirty years since we last had a more or less complete list to select from. Thirty years. And it just happens to coincide with our worst performance as a club? No, I don't think so.
And it isn't that we've had spuds for fitness people over that period of time.

If you look at the teams who have enjoyed success over that time period, most of them had reasonably complete list to choose from. Yes, there have been a few who have had injury problems, but nothing on the scale that we've suffered.
We've seen over the last couple of years that side who experience significant injuries tend to fail. Essendon in 2025 is an excellent example, although Collingwood in the last two years has also been a good example.

So, since Rd 4 1996 (the last time we had less than 3 on the injured list), we have struggled.

Now injuries haven't been our only problem; we've had recruiting issues (perhaps the worst periods of recruiting in our history), boardroom dramas, lack on off-field leadership and uninspired coaching selections, but the common theme across the entire period has been injuries to significant personnel.
For example, Wayne Brittain's first year or so wasn't bad, but when the injuries hit, we fell off the cliff. We never really got to see how good he could be as a coach because of that; the board lost patience and didn't supply with with the recruits we needed.
There were times under Pagan that we didn't have any senior listed players left in the VFL because of injuries late in the season.
I could go on. 2024, for example.

What can we do about it? Now that is a good question.
[1] We've changed fitness people a number of times. At present, we might not be having the same number of injuries as we did in 2024, but we don't appear as fit either. It will be interesting to see if that has been addressed over the summer.
[2] We have improved our way of recruiting. There have been questions over our draft strategies in recent times, and fair enough. But we have radically improved our recruiting since the dark days of Wayne Hughes. We managed to have one almost perfect Draft, under Stephen Silvagni, even though most of those players have now left us, but his next couple we unmitigated disasters. Since Austin has come in, we don't have so many peaks and troughs, but ...
We have clearly improved, but we can do better.
[3] Off-field we are a much tighter, much improved ship. We don't appear to have the factional infighting that crippled us for years. Doesn't mean we can't improve in this area.
[4] Coaching - maybe the biggest remaining question. With a whole new crew in 2026, we'll see if Voss has what it takes to get us success. Still, we are clearly thinking to improve here, where, for years, we just just plodded on.

So, we have addressed a number of our issues, how successfully we'll find out soon. But, until we have most of our players fit and available for most of the time, we won't have addressed the last issue that needs serious attention.

(It was lovely to see the AFLW girls this season play with a minimum of injuries. We weren't quite injury free, but no Carlton side has been better in this area in thirty years. And how did we perform? We significantly improved. If this isn't a lesson for a club, then I don't know what is.)
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #283 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


2 sides to every coin.

How well did we do with Charlie doing nothing? Imagine if we get him up to speed and added depth around him, rather than losing depth. Thats not so 'magical' now is it?

Results did worsen, but thats about the playing list rather than the coaching.
Even Docherty said as much post retirement.....thats if you don't want to take my word for it which was well documented at the time as well.

....and one last thing.
The result 'proves' we were brittle?

In case you are unaware, that team that showed how 'brittle' we were, were a goal off having a 3-peat.....and we had them 5 goals down on their home deck early.
Doesn't seem brittle to me. Seems to have been beaten by the best side in the modern game right now

So are you saying our list manager had built a side capable of winning a flag :D  :D

Potentially....but our previous one...