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Topic: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat (Read 27529 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #300 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Sportsbet premiership odds

5th Sydney $10
11th StKilda $21
12th Carlton $41

It’s almost like the guys that left Sydney didn’t really change their dial, just like their arrival here hasn’t changed ours…

Anyway, it’s all over bar the shouting (and that’s nearly done…) let’s start kicking the ball in anger 👍🏼
Let’s go BIG !

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #301 –
I'd be curious to see the odds at the end of 2023.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #302 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
I'd be curious to see the odds at the end of 2023.

Sportsbet had:

Collingwood - $5
Brisbane - $6.50
Melbourne - $7
Carlton - $8
Greater Western Sydney - $9
Port Adelaide - $10
Adelaide - $15
Geelong - $15
Sydney - $15
Western Bulldogs - $21
St Kilda - $26
Fremantle - $41
Gold Coast - $41
Essendon - $51
Richmond - $51
Hawthorn - $81
North Melbourne - $251
West Coast - $251

Probably not the best way to predict a team's fortunes  ::)
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #303 –
Those odds are about right....for now.
Sporting odds at the moment are just a snapshot in time.
The smart punter wouldn't be betting until he sees the teams in action
The gambler would be having a speculative bet on some of the teams at longer odds now.
Those odds will probably be different after the end of the preseason games and significantly different mid-season 2026.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #304 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Sportsbet had:

Collingwood - $5
Brisbane - $6.50
Melbourne - $7
Carlton - $8
Greater Western Sydney - $9
Port Adelaide - $10
Adelaide - $15
Geelong - $15
Sydney - $15
Western Bulldogs - $21
St Kilda - $26
Fremantle - $41
Gold Coast - $41
Essendon - $51
Richmond - $51
Hawthorn - $81
North Melbourne - $251
West Coast - $251

Probably not the best way to predict a team's fortunes  ::)

Thanks. At this point in time, those 2026 odds are mostly for entertainment purposes IMO.

Humans will never tire of trying to predict the future.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #305 –
One of the surprising things about the odds at this stage is that St Kilda shades us by just the one line of betting.
I'd have thought they would be higher.
They may have been a month ago, with their new recruits, but with players like DeKoning, Silvagni and also Max King having interrupted pre-seasons it's probably made a few people a bit wary of committing until they see how they recover.
It's variables like that which will have premiership odds move around a bit in the months ahead.

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #306 –
I'm just as surprised that Sydney is listed at $10.  I don't think they are anywhere near that level.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #307 –
Here is a look at the betting this time a year ago....

PointsbetTABSportsbetLadbrokes
Brisbane ($6)Brisbane ($7)Brisbane ($8)Brisbane ($7)
GWS ($8)Hawthorn ($8)Hawthorn ($8)Hawthorn ($8)
Hawthorn ($8.50)Carlton ($9)Carlton ($9)Carlton ($9)
Sydney ($10)Sydney ($9)Collingwood ($9)Sydney ($9)
Carlton ($10)GWS ($9)Geelong ($9)GWS ($9)
Collingwood ($10)Geelong ($10)GWS ($9)Collingwood ($9)
Geelong ($11)Collingwood ($10)Sydney ($10)Geelong ($10)
Western Bulldogs ($11)Fremantle ($11)Fremantle ($12)Western Bulldogs ($12)
Fremantle ($14)Western Bulldogs ($12)Western Bulldogs ($13)Fremantle ($13)
Port Adelaide ($17)Port Adelaide ($17)Port Adelaide ($15)Port Adelaide ($15)
Essendon ($26)Melbourne ($26)Melbourne ($21)Melbourne ($26)
Melbourne ($26)St Kilda ($34)Adelaide ($26)Adelaide ($29)
Adelaide ($34)Adelaide ($34)Essendon ($41)Gold Coast ($41)
St Kilda ($41)Gold Coast ($41)Gold Coast ($41)Essendon ($51)
Gold Coast ($41)Essendon ($51)St Kilda ($41)St Kilda ($51)
North Melbourne ($151)North Melbourne ($101)North Melbourne ($81)North Melbourne ($101)
West Coast ($151)West Coast ($101)West Coast ($101)West Coast ($101)
Richmond ($501)Richmond ($151)Richmond ($151)Richmond ($101)
Now whats changed in the meantime??

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #308 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Now whats changed in the meantime??

2025 happened and punters are going on known form.

The markets probably won't change much until the practice games.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #309 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Now whats changed in the meantime??

2025 happened and punters are going on known form.

The markets probably won't change much until the practice games.

Could be worse. We  could be Hawthorn!

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #310 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Now whats changed in the meantime??

Okay well let's have a look at what harpooned the betting agencies predictions for the Bluebaggers in season 2025.

1. Injuries. Everyone had injuries to deal with in season 2025... even Brisvegas. But for a fragile side like ours, they hurt more.
2. Distractions. Internal distractions. TDK, JSOS & Charles' speculation throughout the year. Distractions turned to disruptions.
3. Leadership. Let's be kind and say, leadership 'issues' ie coaching, footy department and MC.
4. Game plan. This dovetails back into leadership. Vossy, to his credit, admitted at the JNM that he let us down in season 2025. He wasn't alone.
5. Offensive skills, or the lack thereof. Our spread, carry and midfield/forward line connection was ...oh dear! And this, again, dovetails back into leadership and game plan.

Roll all that together and you have your answer as to why we didn't fulfill the betting agencies predictions.

 
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17
 

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #311 –
And the betting agencies only use exposed form and trending patterns. It would take some doing for us to look like premiership contenders, but using betting odds is fraught with danger.  I.e.  hawthorn in 2024 were no where but they were arguably the most dangerous looking side back end of the season.  Collingwood were polar opposite in 2025.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat

Reply #312 –
On a positive note...
They had Adelaide at around our estimated finishing position for 2026  (12-13)...and they finished top of the ladder.
Off to the top we go and hopefully do better than Adelaide in the finals. :D