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Poll

Where will we finish?

1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
13-15
16-18

Voting closes: March 05, 2026, 09:53:57 am

Topic: Where will Carlton finish? (Read 2160 times) previous topic - next topic
Lods, ElwoodBlues1, kruddler and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #75 –
Quote from: Lods – on
It's interesting looking at the poll
We've had the "Chicken little" predictions and some "pie in the sky" predictions over the off-season, but inthe end mostly we're settling into expecting a ladder position that is either a few spots up or a few spots down from 2025

And those sort of fluctuations will almost solely be determined by luck and injury.

Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.

Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #76 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
It's interesting looking at the poll
We've had the "Chicken little" predictions and some "pie in the sky" predictions over the off-season, but inthe end mostly we're settling into expecting a ladder position that is either a few spots up or a few spots down from 2025

And those sort of fluctuations will almost solely be determined by luck and injury.

Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.

Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.

Bias will impact everyone's predictions  ;)  :D
If you've convinced yourself and argued for a good or bad season you'll tend to gravitate and give weight to a range that fits your forecast.

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #77 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Its also a little about the ranges highlighted. Many a person, myself including, are over a couple ranges.

Its all guesswork anyway so hardly the end of thw world, but one thing i should add is that doesnt take into accoubt the carlton bias. You coukd almost shift down half a step/a full step of each vote to take that into account.

Bias will impact everyone's predictions  ;)  :D
If you've convinced yourself and argued for a good or bad season you'll tend to gravitate and give weight to a range that fits your forecast.

Individually, perhaps, as a group, no. It will all average it as favourable towards the club you support, for all 18 teams.

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #78 –
Sorry im a fence sitter.  My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th.  Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th.  Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #79 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Sorry im a fence sitter.  My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th.  Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th.  Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
So anywhere other than bottom 4. lol

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #80 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Sorry im a fence sitter.  My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th.  Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th.  Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th. 

I think if the wheels do fall off the cellar is the limit.
I also think 8th should have every member reaching for their fly… 😎
Let’s go BIG !

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #81 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Sorry im a fence sitter.  My range is, wheels fall off as low as 14th.  Things go swimmingly premiership from 2nd to 4th.  Things go average, and results not going our way, probably around 8th.
So anywhere other than bottom 4. lol
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far. 

West Coast will struggle to win games.  Melbourne will absolutely slide further.  Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #82 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Quote from: kruddler – on

So anywhere other than bottom 4. lol
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far. 

West Coast will struggle to win games.  Melbourne will absolutely slide further.  Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.

Last year we finished 11th with 7 teams below us
We lost to 3 of them - Port, Kangas and Tigers
We only just beat 2 more of them by 8 points - Bombers and Dees
St. Kilda was a 15 point win
West Coast was 34 points.

Of those 7, i expect 4 to improve, with just eagles, dees and bombers to stay crap or go backwards.

I'm not expected the 4 above us to get worse - Dogs, Suns, Hawks and Swans, which means you're hoping for a top 6 to go bottom 4, which is a big ask, more likely to be us than them.

BUT......this is why we play the season because we simply don't know.

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #83 –
For what its with, my 8 is:
1   Gold Coast
2   Brisbane
3   GWS
4   Western Bulldogs
5   Sydney
6   Hawthorn
7   Adelaide
8   Collingwood
9   St Kilda
10   Geelong
11   Fremantle
12   Carlton
13   Port Adelaide
14   Essendon
15   Melbourne
16   North Melbourne
17   Richmond
18   West Coas5
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #84 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Thryleon – on
there are enough teams that are terrible that even at our worst we wont fall that far. 

West Coast will struggle to win games.  Melbourne will absolutely slide further.  Richmond arent getting good yet, and im pegging another club will slide perhaps on purpose this season, and it wouldn't shock me if it were Collingwood.

Last year we finished 11th with 7 teams below us
We lost to 3 of them - Port, Kangas and Tigers
We only just beat 2 more of them by 8 points - Bombers and Dees
St. Kilda was a 15 point win
West Coast was 34 points.

Of those 7, i expect 4 to improve, with just eagles, dees and bombers to stay crap or go backwards.

I'm not expected the 4 above us to get worse - Dogs, Suns, Hawks and Swans, which means you're hoping for a top 6 to go bottom 4, which is a big ask, more likely to be us than them.

BUT......this is why we play the season because we simply don't know.

I think you think our worst is a lot worse than i do.

Im not hoping on others, im simply looking at our potential.  We actually have a good bunch of players and havent gone back that far.  Sure, last season we didnt cover ourselves in glory, but we absolutely are better than that in my opinion.


Like you say though, this is where we need to play it out.  I went through an exercise reviewing the off seasons of pretty much every team and hardly anyone has actually improved their list.  Gws and gold coast did, but most others treaded water or went backwards on paper, but the sport isnt played on paper.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Where will Carlton finish?

Reply #85 –
...and despite what some might think, things like injuries , luck, the improvement of young players ...isn't the same for every side.
Variables like this make predicting a season with any confidence a pretty tricky exercise.