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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #90 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
It always amazes me that definitive judgements are made on 19 year olds.

Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -

The campo twins never came highly rated.
We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.

TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there.
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #91 –
Quote from: Adelaideblue – on
Understand the point you are making DJC & LP re how other recruiters rated Ben & Lucas for them to fall to picks 43 & 45, although I wonder if the fact that we held F/S rights wasn't a factor.

Not sure why they should be better suited back here at Port EB. Guess you are saying they are the type of player Port needs in their mix with Boaky gone. However, hopefully if given a reasonable chance we will find they are a "need' here!

Sometimes I wonder why as supporters we have to be so negative on young players who have hardly been looked at.  These guys, their family members must sometimes read this negativity. If so you we shouldn't be surprised if they do decide to go back from where they have come.  Why poke the bear with a stick? 
As has been said "Carlton supporters devour their own", if true not very smart. As supporters we are part of the fabric of a football club and need to play our part for the club to have success.

Well I guess I got that off my ...back !!
cheers AB

I think that it's more a matter of patience and realism than negativity AB.

I'd much rather see Ben and Lucas taking their time, building strength and endurance, and learning the ropes than being dropped in at the deep end. Lucas has had a taste and showed that he wasn't out of place.  Ben would have had his taste but for a suspension and his time will come.

From their changed physiques, training footage, and their teammates comments, they've both worked hard over the off-season.  Let's see how they go when the VFL kicks off,
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #92 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
It always amazes me that definitive judgements are made on 19 year olds.

Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #93 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.

People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'.
TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord.
You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos.
In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #94 –
Quote from: Adelaideblue – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


Who is making definitive judgements?

Ignoring everything about the individual player and just looking at where they are drafted, thats the conclusion you will come too. Later picks and rookie picks will struggle to make it.

Now back to the players, have they shown anything at this stage to buck that trend? Not really, they are showing about what their draft value suggests.
They might make it.
They might not.

Not definitive at all, just statistical analysis.

Some would say your post 18 March 2026 , was sounding fairly definitive (& rather harsh) Mr Kruds: -

The campo twins never came highly rated.
We all have expectations that they can live up to their old man, but not likely.

TBH, i don't think they will make it, and if the old man is causing an issue now, perhaps we show them the door sooner rather than later. Perhaps they'd be better off following his footsteps and pissing off to Essendon, they'd probably get a game there.
More... Like

I don't 'think' they will make it......that is definitive??

The latter part was me taking a swipe at their grumpy old man......and Essendon....which we can never miss an opportunity to do. ;)

Do you think they are LESS likely to get a game at Essendon??

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #95 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


I actually wasn't even thinking about you....just the general tone of criticism of 20 year olds and unders...not just on here.
But you obviously have a guilty conscience to get upset by it. :D

You've been pretty dismissive of Billy Wilson and Cooper Lord.
Lets see how they go as the year progresses
By the way happy birthday to Cooper for the other day, who as he reaches his 21st must be well past it ;)  ;D

I wasn't suggested you were thinking about me. Was just questioning where you heard that from as i don't think anyone has been definitive on them....or anyone.

People don't like hearing that any player will not be good enough to make it. People expect everyone drafted will live up to the best versions of themselves and have a long and successful career. Anyone who even suggests otherwise is always 'negative'.
TBH, its similar with Wilson and Lord.
You point out i have something against them, just like others were pointing out issues with the campos.
In reality, its all the same thing. Odds are stacked against them that they will make it. Of all of them, Lord is outdoing his draft status the most, but still far from a 10 year premiership player yet, albeit looking the most likely out of that group.

I guess there are two ways we can look at it.

We can look at the player and see things they need to work on and say "I can't see them making it"
or
We can look at the player and see the attributes that led them to be drafted, but also look at the areas they need to work on and say "They're still young, they will have to show continuing improvement, they may make it."

One's a postive view, the other is a negative one....in a lot of cases these views are determined by our own bias and perceptions.
If the club isn't going great that may also increase our pessimism.

The thing is not every player can be a Sam Walsh or a Jagga Smith.
As you point out the expectaions on high draft picks are greater.

But that doesn't mean a pick round 40 or 50 can't develop into a regular player, someone who plays over 200 games and contributes to the succes of a club.
Premiership sides are full of these types of players.
For some of them the early years of their careers have been years of struggle-in and out of the side until they gain the necessary experience and maturity to reach their potential.

I'l say it again, and it's something I've learnt from personal experience...the 18-19 year old athlete can be a vastly different one from the more mature and experienced 22-23 year old.

I suppose it's up to each of us to determine whether we adopt a positive or a negative attitude to the young ones.
I'd prefer to give them a chance before making a firm judgement.

Ben would have played last year if not for suspension
Lucas did get game time
Billy Wilson got games at the end of last year and improved each one after showing good form in the VFL
Lord has been a regular member of the side and been rewarded with a contract extension.

The challenge for the Camporeale boys isn't to set the world on fire this year...it's just to show improvement and play some senior football. If they do that they put themselves in a good position to gain a contract extension. If we see nothing in terms of improvement they may be in the gun. But making a judgement on their 2026 before they've even kicked a ball in anger in a serious game  is probably a bit premature. You can argue they're not in the side to start with, but the depth around their positions means that they have to 'win' that place, not have it gifted.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #96 –
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #97 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #98 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Nobody has said they can't make it.

Everybody hopes they do.

If you are a betting man, you bet against them based on where they were drafted. You can do that for every player drafted at a similar spot.
Clearly not all of them will fail, but more of them will fail rather than make it.
Thats the simple truth.

Thats not positive.
Thats not negative.
Thats simple statistics.

No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #99 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


No, that's a pretty negative view.
You're betting against youngsters.
You're betting against your club succeeding.
Many of them will succeed and be really good contributors to any future success.
That's a positive view.

Which ones and how many are anyone's guess?
If you make predictions on individuals at age 19 and 20 there's a fair chance some of them will come back and bite you on the backside.

That's the nature of football, which has a habit of taking no notice of statistics.
You may be able to point to trends...but it's no guarantee of the individual aberrations.

Lods, with all due respect, you are not getting it.

I'm not talking about our club. Our players.
I'm talking about the entire AFL.
Thats not negative, its facts.
The entire points system is based off of those same ideas.

The chance of pick x being better than pick y and/or pick z is highlighted via a lookup table.
Thats statistics. It doesn't take into account a players name or the club they play for, it is sheer numbers.
Thats not negative. Thats reality.

Its simply a more advanced game of guessing what number will be rolled on a die.
Any number COULD come up at any time.
Long term, there is clear trends and that is that the numbers will come up relatively evenly.
The die doesn't care if #6 is your favourite number.
The die doesn't care if #6 worked well for you previously.
Long term, the results will be the results and they are predictable.
The short term is unpredictable, but will always work towards the same trend.....bucking that trend is the unlikely.

With all due respect Kruds
You've moved from individual player assessment to an argument over stats
Don't judge on the likelihood of a statistic coming to fruition
Assess the players, not just in their initial games, but over a body of work.

I understand the statistics
A pick 3 is a better chance of playing two hundred games than a pick 50
But if statistics were the only factor in football there would be no tipping competitions.
Results would follow the stats
Football is an unpredictable game, possibly one of the most unpredicatble in the world due to the shape of the ball and conrolling it, and a whole range of factors like momentum changes...just look at last weekends results.

But you're not relying on stats are you?
You're identifying individual players and saying you don't think they'll make it.
Is that based solely on where they were picked up?
Surely it's a bit deeper than that.

Lucas
Ben
Cooper
Billy

Will they all fail?
Will they all make it?
Will it be a half-half
Who knows.
I'd rather we just concentrate on their individual journey's and enjoy watching their development.
If they don't improve we can wait for the next batch.

But "I don't think they'll make it" ...is just a guess, one that once entrenched is hard to shake, and leads to a bias where every bit of bad play is highlighted in a match thread and every bit of good play is ignored.



Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #100 –
Its not the only factor, but its one that you ignore at your own peril and will ultimately give you a better judgement than your emotional eye.

I've said i don't think they will make it and i've said its because i don't see anything 'outstanding' about them.
Shifter Sheahan always says you need to be elite at 'something'....and i don't see it.
This is also backed up by pre-draft rankings.
This is also backed up by draft day picks.
That is, 18 teams all had similar thinking.....that there was not anything to get too excited about with them.

Are they elite ball users?
Are they elite pace, endurance, agility?
Are they elite thinkers?
I can't say yes to any of them.

IMO, they are slower than average. Less skilled than average and do nothing elite to compensate.

Now there are plenty of those types who end up making it. Someone like Fraser Brown for example has similar traits and areas of need.....but he also had an elite tenacity and desire to compete that helped him out, never more highlighted by 'that tackle' where he simply would not be outdone.

So with that assessment, by the experts, the 18 clubs, statistical representation and by myself....expectations are low.
Is that definitive? No.
Is that negative? I don't think so.
Does that mean i don't hope and want the best for them? No, i hope they succeed as much as anyone.

However, when i'm picking my 2030 team and trying to find areas of need that need filling.
Its not in the middle with Jagga, Walker, Walsh......but it might be with those underneath them and on the wings.....Lord, Campos x2, Wilson etc
They are not 'locks'. Until then, keep drafting.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #101 –
Im prepared to give the Campo's another 2 years, Im probably old school with father and sons and want to give them every opportunity as there is that connection to success Im clinging onto plus I like that Ashcroft/Daicos type of situation with two brothers in the team.
Kruds analysis of their pros and cons is fairly accurate and they probably lack in the areas we need them to be extra special in like disposal by foot and leg speed but I think both are footballers rather than athletes and in Bens case his blue collar approach will compliment the more silky Walker and Smith and he would be a good backup for Walsh moving forward.
Cripps and Hewett are in the back end of their careers and its going to be tougher finding replacements given Tassie will dominate the future drafts for a while.
Lucas was ok in his debut imo and showed something and its been disappointing seeing him not kick on. Having a leftie on the wing reminds me of Amon and D'Ambrosio at Hawthorn and Gulden at the Swans and there is something I just like about Lefties delivering the ball forward but he needs opportunity at senior level to improve his disposal under pressure.
re: Lord....like what he offers as I have said previously, 2 way player who competes like he cares.
re: Wilson....dont think he is senior level at this stage and I would probably have him in the delist basket at seasons end.
 

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #102 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
No one is negative about the boys.  Lucas pushed himself to the edge against hawthorn and ben hasn't even had a chance yet.  Pressure is off them this year.  Next year they'll need to be establishing their credentials, they just have to show they can compete at the level this year for mine.
I agree with all that except the "pressure off" aspect, I think the alleged expectations of their old man pile on the pressure unnecessarily. Of course the rumours might be bullsh1t, but if they aren't he's calling for a position of privilege that demands a level of performance.

I'd much rather they are eased into it, which is another good argument for bigger lists, but if the rumours are true he probably wouldn't accept them getting a lower paycheque. ::)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"