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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne (Read 10476 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #105 –
Both the mental aspect and statistical aspect can play a part in predicting an outcome on a player...and yes, luck is  also a factor-right place, right time, right coaches.

My original point was that a skinny 19-20 year old is not the same player as a 22-23 year old with 3-4 pre-seasons in a high performance strength and conditioning program.
Add to that the years of experience learning the tricks at an elite level and it 'can' be a completely different footballer.
So speculating that an individual won't make it is just a guess.

Statistics may give you a trend that shows the further down the draft the less chance of a long career, but there are enough exceptions to that rule to show that each player needs to be looked at as an individual rather than a draft pick.

@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.


Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #106 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Both the mental aspect and statistical aspect can play a part in predicting an outcome on a player...and yes, luck is  also a factor-right place, right time, right coaches.

My original point was that a skinny 19-20 year old is not the same player as a 22-23 year old with 3-4 pre-seasons in a high performance strength and conditioning program.
Add to that the years of experience learning the tricks at an elite level and it 'can' be a completely different footballer.
So speculating that an individual won't make it is just a guess.

Statistics may give you a trend that shows the further down the draft the less chance of a long career, but there are enough exceptions to that rule to show that each player needs to be looked at as an individual rather than a draft pick.

@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.




It takes a bit of everything to be an AFL footballer.

Elite pace is nothing without something else that is average to above average.

Elite ball winning is nothing if you cant hit a target.

Elite marking is nothing if you cant kick it.

Elite kicking is nothing if you cant get the ball.

All of the above are useless, if you have no smarts.

Give me smart footballers, that have a work ethic, and you will see a flag winning outfit sooner or later, with a sprinkle of players that have elite qualities. 

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #107 –
You can't play too many 18 -20 year olds no matter how good they are for their age.

2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #108 –
Kevin Sheehan's AFL footballers' key attributes:
1. Clean hands (as in ball handling rather than hygiene).
2. Good disposal by hand and foot on both sides.
3. Sufficient athleticism - at least one of speed, agility and endurance.
4. Footy nous.
5. Positive attitude - great teammate, great self-belief and having great fun playing footy.
"Negative waves are not helpful. Try saying something righteous and hopeful instead." Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #109 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
You can't play too many 18 -20 year olds no matter how good they are for their age.

No argument from me.
It's why some will have to push for opportunities.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #110 –
Quote from: DJC – on

Scott is an experienced coach who would fully understand the pressures on young players and the intense competition for spots in an AFL team.  I’m pretty sure that he would also understand that parental interference and/or commentary won’t help.
If we looked at this objectively, analytically, without the influence of blood, then I hope we would find this to be correct.

I've seen too often firsthand at the Dev level how it all changes when it concerns a child or sibling. From dozens or perhaps even hundreds of cases as most seasons involve more than ten players across the competition in similar circumstances. I can count on one hand the instances when personal influence and bias were set aside by people in a position of privilege, the exceptions stand out because it's so so rare. Actually from a distance I'd say our current coach was one of those cases, Voss walked the walked on Casey's AFL career attempt, he kept it at arm's length, as such it would be impossible to accuse Voss or his son of nepotism or a conflict of interest. Voss didn't just talk the talk like some, he lived it, that is a level of integrity most never achieve, think of the willpower it takes to do this!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #111 –
Quote from: Lods – on
\@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.

I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.

He's been pretty consistent about this over decades.
Part of the focus is to simply stand out and get noticed. People at the head of the queue, in any category, are har to overlook and ignore.
Some of those categories that are less about athletics, would be footy smarts and disposal. Some of those types would be your foot soldiers at AFL level.....along with tenacity, drive etc.

Ultimately, it comes down to this, and this is something i've tried to point out to my son.
You need to be able to be better than your opponent in something. How do you get the ball?
You need to have either....
- Better endurance
- Better speed
- Better agility
- More stength
- More smarts - knowing when/where to go. knowing which way the ball will bounce, fly in the air, bounce off a pack. When to leave your opponent and attack etc.

Without one of them, you will find it hard to get the ball.

Of course there are football skills, marking, kicking, tackling etc as well, but most of that works off the back of getting the ball, or getting in a position to get the ball.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #112 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on
\@Kruddler-When Sheahan made his comment about players having to have at least one 'elite' quality was he talking about at AFL level or at under 18 level.
Because deep into the draft those picked up would probably register one elite aspect to their play at that u/18 level.
And at AFL level there would be plenty of footsoldiers who wouldn't register as elite in any category.

I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.

I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #113 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Quote from: kruddler – on


I don't think he specified that specifically, but are they not one and the same?
If someone has elite speed at U18 level, will he not have elite speed at AFL level? et al.

I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.

I can't comment too much on Watson specifically as i didn't watch his u18 stuff.
He certainly was a man child though.
He was AA u18 chb iirc, but that doesn't say much because Paul Bower shared that same honour in his individual draft year.

Theres always outliers for every example which I've happily admitted. That's also part of statistics. But the more data you get the clearer it all becomes, even if there are outliers.
 

Re: AFL Rd 3 2026 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne

Reply #114 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: Lods – on


I do think it's different
Would you say someone like Matthew Watson was elite at u/18 level.
Good mark excellent long kick.
He was a man-child and had probably jumped ahead of his peers at that level.
He was an All Australian at that level...but it didn't translate to senior football and he became a much maligned player.
For some it works in reverse. They struggle to make an impact as a youngster just scraping onto a list but blossom once they get the opportunity and proper training and guidance.

I can't comment too much on Watson specifically as i didn't watch his u18 stuff.
He certainly was a man child though.
He was AA u18 chb iirc, but that doesn't say much because Paul Bower shared that same honour in his individual draft year.

Theres always outliers for every example which I've happily admitted. That's also part of statistics. But the more data you get the clearer it all becomes, even if there are outliers.

We'll agree to disagree.
Statistically it's harder for a late draft pick to succeed
But we shouldn't be influenced by where they were picked, but by what they produce...and at 18-19 few have reached their full poential.
I coached athletes of all ages for around 30 years across a range of disciplines
The 18-19 year old was either not in the same league as the same athlete at 22-23...or life commitments had taken over and athletics took a back seat as Uni and work took over..,and the athlete is lost.

I just can't see it being any different for footballers...either the best is yet to come, or they will get cut before they reach their full potential.
Life will then take over from football because it becomes difficult to juggle work and football when you lose the benefits in terms of training and coaching... and importantly financially.
I suspect that once cut it becomes very difficult to find your way back on a senior list...but some do.