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Topic: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond (Read 11714 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #90 –
You know, if we won Melbourne game and then North Melbourne, we’d be 40 points and top 8
If we won the saints game we’d be 3rd…

Funny old season.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #91 –
Quote from: tex – on
You know, if we won Melbourne game and then North Melbourne, we’d be 40 points and top 8
If we won the saints game we’d be 3rd…

Funny old season.
Not to mention the Collingwood 4 points we threw away.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #92 –
Coaches' votes :

10 George Hewett (CARL)
8 Jagga Smith (CARL)
5 Tim Taranto (RICH)
3 Seth Campbell (RICH)
2 Adam Cerra (CARL)
1 Francis Evans (CARL)
1 Patrick Cripps (CARL)

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #93 –
Quote from: Shakin77 – on
I don't think it's fair to suggest that the turnaround in form is due mainly to the fixture.   Essendon, Richmond and West Coast we would have all started favorites for however the Wins against Geelong, Bulldogs, Port Adelaide (Away) and GWS (Away) are a significant change in fortunes.

"https://www.tiktok.com/@carlton_flaggers2026/video/7657892411057720594"

"Carlton on track at round 9 to be one of the worst pressure rating teams on record..."

Our pressure and match day energy regardless of the opponent which requires no talent have been remarkably better under Fraser than Voss.

https://x.com/RileyBev/status/2051182183340253489
"Carlton's pressure rating of 152 against St Kilda was its lowest of the season, but that's no surprise. The Blues are the only team in the AFL yet to have a single game this year where they've recorded a higher pressure rating than their opposition."

Fraser has put Hewett back into the middle and Cerra (53% CBA's) on the Wing (0 CBA's).   Credit too him I didn't think that Cerra could play Wing.   Jagga is up 15% CBA's.   McKay into the middle has turned his season around and Fraser has used Ainsworth in the middle to pinch hit up to 15%.

Couple things.

1. Its not MAINLY due to fixture it follows it pretty spot on.
How many bottom 4 teams did Vossy lose too?
How many top 6 teams has Fraser beaten?
The difference is in the grey area in the middle....and with that....

2. The tide started to turn before that. Vossy, Fraser, Wright, Davies all said they changed some things a few weeks before Vossy left and it was evident that it was paying off in the Brisbane game.
Numerous stats showed this at the time. The tide had started to turn.

3. Form of certain players who were under an injury cloud early are now playing fit......
Patrick Cripps - 2026 AFLCA Coaches Votes (Up to Round 17)

Patrick Cripps - 2026 AFLCA Coaches Votes (Up to Round 17)

Opening Round vs Sydney Swans: 0 votes
Round 1 vs Richmond: 6 votes
Round 2 vs Hawthorn: 0 votes
Round 3 vs Melbourne: 0 votes
Round 4 vs North Melbourne: 0 votes
Round 5 vs Adelaide: 0 votes
Round 6 vs Collingwood: 0 votes
Round 7 vs St Kilda: 0 votes
Round 8 vs Fremantle: 0 votes
Round 9 vs Brisbane Lions: 6 votes
Round 10 vs Western Bulldogs: 9 votes
Round 11 vs Port Adelaide: 10 votes
Round 12 vs Geelong Cats: 10 votes
Round 13 vs Essendon: 4 votes
Round 14 vs BYE: --
Round 15 vs GWS Giants: 8 votes
Round 16 vs West Coast Eagles: 9 votes
Round 17 vs Richmond: 1 vote

Total 2026 Tally: 59 votes

*Note: The statistical shift in his year since the mid-season coaching change is incredible. He polled just 12 votes across his first 9 matches, but has exploded with 47 out of a possible 70 maximum votes in the 7 games since Josh Fraser took over.*


 

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #94 –
Don't be surprised if Cripps does better than expected on Brownlow night!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #95 –
Quote from: LP – on
Don't be surprised if Cripps does better than expected on Brownlow night!
Right now the last thing on Crippas mind would be individual accolades. We should all follows suit.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #96 –
Regarding Cripps, I was one of those who thought he was carrying an injury earlier in the season. However, as the club has never confirmed any current or previous injury, it's difficult to know if there was one, when it occurred, or how much it was affecting his performances. By the same token, it's also hard to suggest that Cripps is suddenly 100% injury-free simply because Michael Voss has departed. Without any information from the club, that's just speculation.

There have, however, been a number of changes under Josh Fraser that may have contributed to Cripps' improved performances.

Lower contested game

Carlton's game style has shifted significantly.

"Carlton’s strengths under Voss, contest and clearance, remain, but they are less reliant on these areas. Their contested possession rate is down from 37.3 per cent and sixth in Voss’s last five games to 32.8 per cent and 17th under Fraser. It’s a style more in keeping with how football is played in 2026."

A less contest-heavy game could reduce the physical toll on Cripps over four quarters. If he's not repeatedly crashing into stoppages, it makes sense that he'd have more energy and explosiveness around the ground.

It's also worth considering whether the greater midfield support from players like Hewett, Smith and Ainsworth has allowed Cripps to be more selective with his contests rather than carrying such a heavy workload himself.

Training standards

Players have also spoken publicly about Fraser's increased focus on fundamentals and raising training standards.

Interestingly, they've also said training sessions have become less physically demanding. Despite that, Carlton's match-day pressure has actually increased, and the group appears to have more energy late in games.

If players are fresher because they're not being physically taxed as heavily during the week, that could certainly benefit someone like Cripps. It's also possible that this is a broader team effect rather than something specific to the captain.

Ultimately, there are several plausible reasons for Cripps' resurgence, but without confirmation from the club about his physical condition, it's impossible to attribute it solely to a coaching change. The shift in game style, increased midfield support, and altered training approach all appear just as likely to have played a role.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #97 –
1. Less reliant on contested ball......because the opposition are worse and offer less resistance and are allowing us to do as we please more.
2. Training standards lifted....interesting considering that was something that Voss was VERY strong on in his Damo interview about introducing that to the club and being something he is proud of.

As mentioned previously, game plan shift was highlighted 2-3 weeks before Voss' exit. Confirmed by Voss, Fraser, Wright and Davies (and maybe Priestly too)

You can see from our performance, Cripps performance and by those mentioned above that this became evident in the Brisbane game.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #98 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
1. Less reliant on contested ball......because the opposition are worse and offer less resistance and are allowing us to do as we please more.
2. Training standards lifted....interesting considering that was something that Voss was VERY strong on in his Damo interview about introducing that to the club and being something he is proud of.

As mentioned previously, game plan shift was highlighted 2-3 weeks before Voss' exit. Confirmed by Voss, Fraser, Wright and Davies (and maybe Priestly too)

You can see from our performance, Cripps performance and by those mentioned above that this became evident in the Brisbane game.

A lot of fecking around with the ball, way more disposals than the Tigers, beat them in the clearances/stoppages easily but for only 49 entries only....Tigers had 49 entries also but their I50 work was less efficient.
We are moving the ball better and retaining possession(less turnovers) but a lot of it is going nowhere( across the ground/backwards) and we dont score enough for the amount of ball we have.
Vs Essendon we lost the ruck/contested ball/clearances but were saved by Essendons poor i50 work(39% efficient) to our i50(49%) which was poor also but not as bad....
 

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #99 –
So there is no chance that any changes Fraser has made has had a positive impact on Cripps and the Side.

It's all fixture and changes made 3 weeks before Voss left?

Given that:
Cerra CBA's
Voss R0 to R5:  53%
Voss's Last 3:  40%
Under Fraser:  4%

Smith CBA's
Voss R0 to R5:  46%
Voss's Last 3:  29%
Under Fraser:  56%

McKay CBA's
Voss R0 to R5:  0%
Voss's Last 3:  11.5% (Brisbane Game only)
Under Fraser:  24%

Hewett CBA's
Voss R0 to R5:  66%
Voss's Last 3:  43%
Under Fraser:  68%

Even if you concede the Cerra move to the Wing and only that, you have to give some credit (however small) to a change in game style after Voss left.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #100 –
Cmon Shakin, if it was as simple as 1 thing, then Voss and the club is an idiot.

But those who are anti-voss are making it out as if there was only 1 change that 'solved' everything, Fraser. Surely you can see that is not true.

Fixture, IMO, is the most important factor.
Cripps' form is not a coincidence. Our best 2 games under voss was the 2 games Cripps got votes....and he has votes in every game since.

So ignoring those 2 things, which Fraser boosters continue to do, is my gripe.
Similarly, people gave Fraser credit for bringing George back, playing Wilson, playing Harry in the ruck.....all occured before he took over.

Credit where credit is due, sure.
I've got no issue with Fraser. I've got issues with people proclaiming he can walk on water and has the midas touch.

In terms of your CBA's, can you include the figures for Lord?

IMO thats been a huge difference.
I copped some flack for questioning his long term future and him being too similar to our better mids.
Initially i think he was playing a wing role that Cerra took over. He was playing midfield when we gave him a chance to lock it down with George out of the side. Eventually, Lord was forced out of the side through injury and hasn't (as yet) returned to the seniors, despite going ok in the 2's.

There is a lot of cause and effect, and correlation, and people not understanding the difference.

Just looking at Jagga for an example, he started in the midfield. Then plenty were suggested he looked tired and sore and might need a run in the 2's. Was moved out of the guts at the same time. Got himself back up to speed and was moved back in as a result.
Is that Fraser being a genuis? Is it Voss looking after his young player so he doesn't break him??


Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #101 –
The evolution in game plan started in pre season. This was stated at the time, and has therefore been public knowledge for months. As the losses and second half fade outs mounted, so did the pressure on Voss and the players. Throw in the Elijah saga, the idiot Gorringe and his mate Docherty, the sloppy-skills-at-training video, players being constantly harassed, the swirling media speculation and pile on............

You won't be getting the best out of your coaches and players under such circumstances.

Fraser the Amazer has absolutely exceeded expectations and knocked it out of the park, but it's not a tabula rasa. Fraser has added to the good work Voss started, and is doing it without all the noise and nonsense.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #102 –
Quote from: Shakin77 – on
Carlton's game style has shifted significantly.
It's completely bogus claim, that can only be swallowed by either those who wish to believe or those who haven't been bothered to watch. I'm not even sure where the idea comes from, the power of suggestion maybe?

Our game plan is unchanged, we've been slowly getting better at executing it all season, perforated by some various roadblocks like injuries and form lines. We probably went very close to defeating the Lions in Brisbane, if not for 5 or 10 minutes of lapse, even Fagan claimed they were lucky. Cripps busted his guts trying to get the team to lift, but the problems never really been Cripps or Walsh, it's been those around them leaving the heavy lifting to too few. We had a team built on contested ball winners running around like accumulators.

If looks to me like Voss getting the flick was just enough of a rocket to motivate the players to put in 24x7. After all, given Fraser won't be coach they are almost all 100% insecure at this very moment, nobody is locked in as far as I can tell, realistic offers will be considered for all, and then we'll be into the rebuild Mk: VI. I wonder who'll be saved?

On the media videos, cherry-picking the best and worst case scenarios to suit an agenda or assertions is nothing more or less than deliberately misleading. In reality for most games this season we'd breakdown on the 3rd or 4th disposal / contest because our execution in either disposal or tackling sucked. How many times did you see an opponent stroll through a Carlton tackle in the first half of this season? They could have shown a hundred of those videos, instead they show the video that is contest free. That was disheartening, and players would drop their head and wouldn't commit, they started guarding grass which makes it even worse under the current rules, they aren't brain surgeons.

Just a bit later in the season, the errors start to diminish and the players persist, all of a sudden the media moguls claim it's a miracle, a miracle of eliminating the error every 3rd or 4th disposal / contest. We can call it "The miracle of the skills!" or "The miracle of the effort!"

btw., How much of the dropping of Hewett contributed to that new found player motivation, did someone pull just the right lever?
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"