AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

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Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #15 – Today at 04:45:49 am

It rained much heavier early and that was the trigger for the momentum swing, from then we looked heavy legged.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #16 – Today at 07:16:00 am

Quote from: LP – on Today at 04:45:49 am

It rained much heavier early and that was the trigger for the momentum swing, from then we looked heavy legged.

Absolutely. They rocked up in their swimming togs and we were literally fully clothed by comparison.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #17 – Today at 07:45:42 am

I suspect there are a variety of emotions around this morning. There will be the bitter disappointment. There will be feelings of a wasted opportunity (close but no cigar), and there will also be the positive ‘looking to next year’ point of view.

Some of us will feel all of these things.
It will mostly be based on our own expectations, both before the season, and once the season turned and we went on a winning run.

It’s a strange situation, but for me the end of the year doesn’t carry the same level of disappointment as it has in recent times. My own expectations pre-season were that we would finish in about the same position as 2025 and win a similar number of games. So, my expectations were pretty much met. You can’ be unhappy about that.

There are a few things that set us apart from 2025.
-   Any divisions of last year appear to have disappeared and it’s pretty much a united group.
-   We have had a reasonable run with injuries.
-   We’ve also had a bit of luck- if you look back at the season we’ve come up (and won) against some clubs when they’ve been down on form or missing key players.
-   We have bit of certainty around the coaching position and while that will pretty much depend on how Fraser goes... in the words of the prophet Jagger (no relation-different spelling)-“Time is on ‘his’ side.”

We’ve ended up playing finals, and that’s a real positive. Young players like Byrne may not have gone as well as they have in the regular season, but the experience will stand them in good stead, because they’ll have had that experience and be better prepared next time.

As Fraser has indicated consistently, we are far from the finished product. We still have some key positions to fill and replace.

It’s probably fair to say he was outcoached last night.
They came well prepared. They’d obviously done a lot of work on our prime movers, and while not able to completely nullify them their output and effectiveness was much reduced. As a result of that our support players, that second tier group, didn’t get a smooth run and were probably found wanting in a number of cases.

For the younger ones they can file it away as ‘experience’ . For the older ones it’s probably a bit more of an issue, with decisions to be made on their futures. Those with contracts may be playing a fair bit of VFL next year, depending on our trading and drafting.

We missed Hayward and Haynes, but it’s doubtful they would have dramatically affected the result. The score probably flattered us to an extent given their inaccuracy. The weather may have played some small part in some of the skill execution. They pressured us well and as a result we saw a return to some of the hack kicks in defence and rushed disposals that resulted in turnovers. There were a couple of real clangers and brain fades that resulted in opposition goals.

Geelong aren’t a bad side, and you wouldn’t rule out the possibility that they will still be in it after next week’s game against Freo.

The next week or two may see us bidding farewell to quite a few of our older group…and possibly some young ones.
The season may be over but the ‘interest’ will still be there for a few months as the wheeling and dealing begins.

One thing that is possibly changing, although we may not see it this trade period, is that we are likely a more attractive destination club than we were. It will be interesting to see what shakes out of the tree once every club’s season has ended.

So ‘all in all’ we probably end 2026 in a much better and more hopeful position than 2025, but there is still work to be done in list building, mastering the game style, and developing the youth.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #18 – Today at 07:48:57 am

Disappointing way to finish the season IMO. It felt like earlier in the year, where we built up leads only to fritter them away.

I'm not so confident after last night that we have in fact turned a corner. Very good last 10/12/14 weeks of the season then making a bit of a dent in finals seems to be the best we can manage at the moment.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #19 – Today at 07:52:34 am

Bloody rain when we least needed it. We desperately need a reliable key forward so I can understand us looking at Amartey and Hogan...none of our blokes look likely to kick a bag and put the wind up the opposition. I know it was wet and he gets horribly scragged but Harry is just too nice, Kemp burns more chances than an arsonist and McG is just a bit player at best. Young is a bits and pieces player who is a terrible shot for goal. Great effort to get this far but you need established quality to sustain it in finals and not quite players get found out. Playing an elimination game every week for the past 10 rounds hurt too. No Hayward robbed us of a bit of flexibility and some bite.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #20 – Today at 08:24:53 am

It might be an unpopular opinion, but we talk about making lots of changes after going 12 wins 1 draw and 3 losses (2 in the wet which was more a game plan situation than not) so im not seeing a massive need.

We could go into season 2027 adding not much but that forming in the first 10 weeks and finish top 4.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #21 – Today at 08:33:18 am

Quote from: Thryleon – on Today at 08:24:53 am

It might be an unpopular opinion, but we talk about making lots of changes after going 12 wins 1 draw and 3 losses (2 in the wet which was more a game plan situation than not) so im not seeing a massive need.

We could go into season 2027 adding not much but that forming in the first 10 weeks and finish top 4.

It's pretty much a given that winning a flag from position 7-10 is now just about impossible.
The wild card has disadvantaged teams 7 and 8 (which was almost an impossible task anyway.)

So what's the goal for next year.
Top 4 would be nice...but we'll set the starting height at Top 6.
A week's rest and then pick off the wild-card winner.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #22 – Today at 08:41:51 am

We were beaten at selection and went in to tall for starters. We missed an opportunity to give a fresh Ison a taste. I'm not bitter at all, way to much to like about this season especially compared to what the club has delivered for to many years. Last night showed a lot and this time we're in a happy place to learn from it.

I've never had so much encouragement from opposition supporters and never expected it. I think a new Carlton has emerged and we have a coach who can fit the final pieces together. We needed a Voss to get to a Fraser. Such a big ship to turn around these failing footy clubs and the longer you fail the harder it is and we've been failing for what seems like ever.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #23 – Today at 08:43:00 am

Quote from: Professer E – on Today at 07:52:34 am

Bloody rain when we least needed it. We desperately need a reliable key forward so I can understand us looking at Amartey and Hogan...none of our blokes look likely to kick a bag and put the wind up the opposition. I know it was wet and he gets horribly scragged but Harry is just too nice, Kemp burns more chances than an arsonist and McG is just a bit player at best. Young is a bits and pieces player who is a terrible shot for goal. Great effort to get this far but you need established quality to sustain it in finals and not quite players get found out. Playing an elimination game every week for the past 10 rounds hurt too. No Hayward robbed us of a bit of flexibility and some bite.

These comments echo those of Fraser, Davies and Wright to date. The list needs a lot of work and from a playing perspective we arent the finished product. I think defensively we are ok, midfield is solid, it's the Rucks and Key Fwds that we have problems with IMO. Pitto is a battler but is not in the class of the top ruckman in the comp, he is also extremely injury prone.
Harry is playing a lone hand as a tall up fwd and it shows. McG and Kemp are not the answer as their kicking is far too unreliable.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #24 – Today at 08:43:14 am

I think we need to move all of our home games to the MCG or all of them to Marvel.

It's not a coincidence Carlton and Essendon have gone to crap since they don't have a home ground.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #25 – Today at 08:46:54 am

Quote from: Lods – on Today at 08:33:18 am

Quote from: Thryleon – on Today at 08:24:53 am
It might be an unpopular opinion, but we talk about making lots of changes after going 12 wins 1 draw and 3 losses (2 in the wet which was more a game plan situation than not) so im not seeing a massive need.

We could go into season 2027 adding not much but that forming in the first 10 weeks and finish top 4.

It's pretty much a given that winning a flag from position 7-10 is now just about impossible.
The wild card has disadvantaged teams 7 and 8 (which was almost an impossible task anyway.)

So what's the goal for next year.
Top 4 would be nice...but we'll set the starting height at Top 6.
A week's rest and then pick off the wild-card winner.

The wildcard whilst it provided some excitement for us is nothing but a money grabbing exercise by the AFL. As you say, finishing 7th to 10th provides you with a snowballs chance in hell of going deep into September. I wont be surprised if this concept doesnt last more than another season or two. Just like the ridiculous round zero garbage.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #26 – Today at 08:48:41 am

Oh, the rain. The rain.

Many people hinting that Carlton “rode their luck” these last 14 weeks forget we played the 2 most capable wet weather teams … when it was wet.

No coincidence Geelong and Hawthorn are the most bulked and nuggety of teams. Stronger in the legs with associated better core strength means being able to keep your feet and pick the ball up with greater surety - two things they did better than us.

Huge advantage in the wet compared to us who rely on players executing a game plan with the precision of a Swiss watchmaker.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #27 – Today at 08:50:30 am

I think we went in with our best balanced team. That was until we saw the weather forecast.
In the end, Young was not needed and we needed an extra small.
Wet conditions, marking is more difficult, ball spend more time on the ground, you need more smalls to adapt.

I think the weather exposed our game plan.

I think it exposed our forwards as not good enough.

I think the poor performers from last week were the same this week. Young, Byrne, gov, Kemp.

We missed Hayward.

We missed Haynes.
Derkson was not up to same level.
We got exposed when Harry Dean went off.

Nobody told Frankie it was raining. Clone him.

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #28 – Today at 08:53:51 am

Quote from: madbluboy – on Today at 08:43:14 am

I think we need to move all of our home games to the MCG or all of them to Marvel.

It's not a coincidence Carlton and Essendon have gone to crap since they don't have a home ground.

The MCG was a fortress for us for a little while and Docklands was an achilles heel. It seems thats flipped around. Problem is, finals arent played at Marvel (see Syd and the SCG).

Re: AFL EF#1 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #29 – Today at 09:00:02 am

Quote from: IvanAwfulbigone – on Today at 08:48:41 am

Oh, the rain. The rain.

Many people hinting that Carlton “rode their luck” these last 14 weeks forget we played the 2 most capable wet weather teams … when it was wet.

No coincidence Geelong and Hawthorn are the most bulked and nuggety of teams. Stronger in the legs with associated better core strength means being able to keep your feet and pick the ball up with greater surety - two things they did better than us.

Huge advantage in the wet compared to us who rely on players executing a game plan with the precision of a Swiss watchmaker.

Agree but dont underestimate the coaching mastery of Scott. He flipped the script at qtr time, he put the Irish Vice Grips on Jagga, told his ruckman to push the ball wide at the centre ball ups and extend ours aerobically around the ground. We like to make the ground wide, they took that to the next level whilst blocking our ability to do so after qtr time. It was a master class to be honest.