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Messages - blueianh

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Gold Coast
Our line-up:

B:  [42] Adam Saad,  [23] Jacob Weitering,  [2] Lachlan Cowan
HB:  [17] Brodie Kemp,  [11] Mitch McGovern,  [24] Nic Newman
C:  [4] Oliver Hollands,  [9] Patrick Cripps,  [13] Blake Acres
HF:  [6] Zac Williams,  [10] Harry McKay,  [20] Elijah Hollands
F:  [14] Orazio Fantasia,  [30] Charlie Curnow,  [44] Matthew Owies
R:  [12] Tom De Koning,  [18] Sam Walsh,  [7] Matthew Kennedy
Int:  [37] Jordan Boyd,  [29] George Hewett,  [39] Alex Cincotta,  [8] Lachie Fogarty,  [16] Jack Carroll

Em: [19] Corey Durdin,  [33] Lewis Young,  [25] Jaxon Binns

In:  Adam Saad,  Lachlan Cowan,  Lachie Fogarty
Out:  Corey Durdin (Omitted),  Marc Pittonet (Injured),  Caleb Marchbank (Managed)

[1] We will miss Pittonet, who usually plays well against Witts. Tom has a very poor record against Witts and has always played to his weaknesses against him. If he plays to his strengths and moves Witts around ...
Still, I see this is a major danger.

[2] Saad, Cowan and Fogarty in is good for us. Saad defends and attacks. Fogarty keeps the ball in our forward half and provides opportunities for his team mates. Cowan played well last week in the 2's: I'd be thinking of using his in the middle.

[3] GC's strength is their midfield. If we can keep them under control, we should do well. But we should match up carefully.

[4] How Fantasia still gets games amazes me. Corey Durdin was good against Melbourne, but has been too quiet too often. How is he not better than Fantasia though? Fantasia has 1 goal in the seniors for the year and hasn't looked dangerous.

[5] Marchbank - he has to be a worry. If he can't play 3 weeks in a row, then he is done.

[6] Olli Hollands was brilliant against Melbourne for 3 quarters, but that's been it. He needs to stand up this round.


Can't disagree with any of what you said.  TDK likely to get monstered by Witts but we have no fit options who wouldn't, indeed Pitto is the only player on the list who wouldn't.  However as you say if TDK plays to his strengths he has tools to exploit his athletic superiority.  Against the monsters I think TDK has to play ruck in the way Harry does or Lewis Young.  In the actual ruck duals just compete - where possible stand off and jump - but try to make yourself a presence at ground level and by presenting and marking around the ground.   Ideally you want more from your no. 1 ruck than just trying to compete at the ball-ups but the reality is Pitto aside we have no-one who can stand their ground against a Witts and not be badly beaten, that is just a fact we have to live with and the only thing keeping Pitto in the side at all.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Post Game Prognostications
Our best ruck combination, until someone else comes along, is Pittonet and De Koning, followed by De Koning and O’Keeffe, then Pittonet and O’Keeffe.

The solution to the lack of foot speed by some of our mids isn’t playing the even slower Silvagni as a second ruck....

It might not be long before that first combination falls behind the other two.  Certainly it gives us  better mobility and forward craft than any combination involving Pitto, but we lose his physicality.  Not that O'Keeffe is shy of putting his body on the line but he doesn't - yet - have the size to do it effectively against most AFL first rucks.

As to JSOS rucking not being a solution to lack of leg speed, the comparison is not to the other mids but to whoever would be doing the second ruck role if not JSOS.  If that were Pitto or Mirkov for example, then JSOS clearly is quicker, not so if it is TDK, Harry McKay or say Dom Akuei (not that he is near firsts level) he was keeping out of that role.
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications
Daughter, her partner and I are doing the road trip.  Only he works to 7pm Friday so not much time for any hiccups, but still workable.  Then Monday morning I have a phone conference but as long as I'm not driving that will work.  Decided against doing the return trip right after the game plus get the chance to catch up with my best man who lives up there nowadays.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL 2023 Semi Final Carlton vs Melbourne at the MCG
I went old school and did what my daughter did to get Taylor Swift tickets - drove the 45 minutes to a ticketek outlet and queued up rather than going on line.  Was thinking of going fully old school and sleeping outside the outlet but only a few people doing that last night so I opted for my own bed and a 4am alarm clock.  Outlet opened at 7, by 7.30 had my number in the queue and came back at 10 for the sales to start.  Couldn't get anything in the Ponsford Stand (daughter wanted to be near the Cheer Squad), but got ground level in the pocket other end.  Tickets is tickets!  Happy just to be there.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS
We’ve got the pre-finals bye coming up (it still feels a little strange that the bye will apply to us 🙂) and that’s the only break we need.

At this stage of our campaign, I think that it’s important that we maintain momentum, stay ruthless and get games into our returning players.
Tend to agree except I think returning fringe players should be considered also - especially if by game time we know a win won't help us.  Miles in the legs of all that we may need to call upon - and omit those who can't get up or would benefit from the rest.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS
I have been picking next weeks Blues team every week since I became a Blues fan in 1968 and I don't recall a tougher selection task than this coming week. First up are the inter-related philosophical questions - 1 do we rest tired/banged-up players? and 2 do we prioritise getting miles into the legs of returning players? North failed to overrun the tigers in the seconds, so no-one outside the 23 are getting any match practice. The remaining unknowns at time of writing are whether top 4 is still a chance and conversely who we'd be playing week 1 of the finals on either a round 23 win or loss scenario. The former will be clear tonight, the latter by match time. If top 4 is on offer we play our strongest side, likewise if the results make a win imperative. Otherwise I am more open to being dictated by the opportunity to get miles into the legs of returning players.



To my mind we rest Cripps, Docherty and Hollands on any scenario. All would benefit from the 2 weeks off and all are struggling at the moment such that fresh legs would be a benefit to the team this week anyway – not to denigrate what they bring to the table. Incoming I would expect all of Cerra, McGovern and Walsh to come in. Also Kennedy and Silvagni if they are fit. Perhaps Boyd, though Fisher has been better than I thought he could be in the loose defender role. However I wonder whether we can afford his lack of defensive application when it comes to finals. Boyd and Cincotta to me are more defensive, more physical, better overhead and in Boyd’s case a better kick than Fisher. McGovern is a different type of defender and Marchbank and Kemp are the obvious 2 he potentially replaces, unless you want to play all 3 in which case one of them plays small and one of the small defenders goes out. That doesn’t effect our run that much and gives us flexibility if one of our tall defenders goes down.



On ball Ed Curnow I think is cooked. Cuningham has not been setting the world alight despite his obvious gifts and may be at risk. Cottrell is not the most skilled player going around but I like his versatility and team ethic and his incredible running power is crucial to the way this team plays. He stays for mine.  Lastly, if there is not much hanging on the game I say we blood Binns.  He has been excellent all year in the 2s and deserves a run.  If he turns it on we have another selection dilemma, otherwise we have 1 natural out for the final.  Win/win in my view and an investment in the future.



At this stage assuming we will prioritise getting miles into the legs of returning players and assuming Kennedy and Silvagni are fit to play my line-up is:



BOYD WEITERING MARCHBANK



FISHER McGOVERN SAAD



ACRES DOW WALSH



BINNS McKAY MARTIN



SILVAGNI/PITTONET C CURNOW OWIES



DE KONING KENNEDY/CINCOTTA CERRA


COTTRELL HEWETT KEMP MOTLOP / FOGARTY



EMERGENCIES CINCOTTA HOLLANDS YOUNG



IN    BOYD McGOVERN WALSH BINNS (NEW) SILVAGNI KENNEDY CERRA FOGARTY

OUT NEWMAN DOCHERTY CRIPPS HOLLANDS (RESTED) E CURNOW CINCOTTA PITTONET CUNINGHAM (OMITTED)



LOCKS TO RETURN CRIPPS DOCHERTY NEWMAN



PUSHING TO RETURN CINCOTTA CUNINGHAM HOLLANDS



CHANCE TO RETURN PITTONET



BACKUPS E CURNOW COWAN HONEY O'BRIEN PLOWMAN YOUNG
12
Ladies Lounge / Re: AFLW Season 8 - 2023
Watched the AFLW practice match against Sydney on the live stream, again worrying signs early.  Last week the reigning premiers pantsed us, this week a team that struggled last year were well on top of us for the first half.  Unable to get the score on the board, blew a couple of good chances, but still in general play being beaten to my eye.

Different outfit after half time.  Q3 we finally got on the scoreboard and closed to within 8 points with the momentum our way.  Pressed hard in Q4, got to within a goal but lost by 9 after they goaled after the siren.

Much improved on last week, but the quality of opponent much reduced.  In particular we were much better outside the contest this week.

Moody huge as usual, usual suspects stood except for Vescio who I thought was generally quiet.  Mia Austin looked good as did the 2 new Irish girls especially Erone Fitzpatrick, they both add run and speed and if they are on an upward curve look out opposition.

Overall more light on the horizon than last week, or indeed half time, but we need to get value for our forward entries.  With Vescio, Austin and Skepper up forward and Moody drifting forward we have the talent, the defence is solid and the midfield has quality individuals so there is something to work with.
13
Ladies Lounge / Re: AFLW Season 8 - 2023
Much improved 3rd quarter and finally got results on the scoreboard, thanks largely to Moody who kicked our first 2 goals.  8 points down at 3QT but with the momentum.
15
Ladies Lounge / Re: AFLW Season 8 - 2023
Watching the AFLW practice match against Sydney on the live stream, again worrying signs. Last week the reigning premiers pantsed us, this week it is a team that struggled last year well on top of us. Haven't been able to get the score on the board, blown a couple of good chances, but still in general play being beaten to my eye. Could be a long season.