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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by Thryleon -
Irrespective of the change in season, there are a couple of things to consider.

As the season wore on, with the roles changing, and different personnel getting more amongst it, we were always going to improve  as the season wore on.  Guys like Ainsworth, Hayward and Florent are living in Melbourne for the first time in ages (if at all).  As their routine settles, so will their performances.   Likewise, the absence of certain individuals means we were growing accustomed to not having someone like Charlie, JSOS and TDK around.  Some of the other players were also well down on form, and as we know in sports form is fickle.  It can turn quickly.

The dead cat bounce is also a thing.  The coach going clears the air in a way that can only be cleared by backing the coach in (dont tell me Vossy was backed in, Im not having that, everyone could see it was win or else, so the players probably felt additional pressure to perform.  They couldnt stand up, we generally wilt under pressure, thats the club culture.  It stems from taking the easy way out and sacking coaches so the cycle becomes self fulfilling.

Finally, we are having a patch where we beat a very wounded bulldogs, who are playing under manned.  Despite this they remain plucky and that win was better than advertised, but would it have come without the dead cat bounce?  We cant know.  Port dont want to win.  Sure they kind of want it, but they dont, there is no gain in it for them, because when Butters goes at the end of the season, they will go backwards again so reading anything into that match is fraught with danger.

Ergo, any turnaround statistically in the midst of this season, is a furphy, and largely we were building towards it anyway.  Tomorrow will tell us a lot more, but our next few matches pit us against West Coast and the Bombers.  We were a real chance of going 4 and 1 before a ball was kicked in all those matches, with or without the coach change.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by Baggers -
Quote from: Adelaideblue – on
Hard not to be impressed with the style of football we played against Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide and be excited by the results. However, maybe a little early to be reaching conclusions around major improvements in game style and performance.
We have 10 games against other teams, before we play the Western Bulldogs again, so these performance may tell the real story.  All eyes on Geelong match Friday, fingers crossed.

Geelong, Essendon, Bye
GWS, West Coast, Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, St Kilda.
 
Ps. Great to be at Adelaide Oval last Saturday night and watch us win there for a change.
Pps. & well done EB with your 5 goal win prediction.................hmm this week?

Yep. The Pussycats will pressure our tweaks (evolution) and that's where we'll get a much better idea of where we are. When the Pussycats heat comes, and it will, we'll see whether we 'resort to type' or back ourselves in.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Jim Park Voting AFL Rd 11 2026 Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by crashlander -
AFL Rd 11 2026   Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Team :      A
One of our most complete games in recent times, we were challenged and responded well.

Votes:
[2.5]   Patrick Cripps
]1.5]   Jagga Smith
[1.5]   George Hewett
[1.5]   Ollie Florent
[1.5]   Harry McKay
[1]   Harry Dean
[1]   Sam Walsh
[1]   Francis Evans
[1]   Will Hayward
[0.5]   Billy Wilson
[0.5]   Nic Newman
[0.5]   Nick Haynes
[0.5]   Jack Ison
[0.5]   Lachie Cowan

Explanations:
[2.5]   Patrick Cripps:      Another stand out game from Cripps, with a first quarter like few others. 32 possessions, 8 clearances, 5 tackles and goal. Brilliant!
]1.5]   Jagga Smith:      A really strong game and no possessions wasted. 27 possessions and 4 clearances.
[1.5]   George Hewett:   A slow start, but brilliant in the middle of the game. Back to something like last year’s form.
[1.5]   Ollie Florent:      Another excellent effort from Florent running our of defence.
[1.5]   Harry McKay:      H is also playing more like what we hope. He did well in the ruck and kicked better than he has for some time.
[1]   Harry Dean:      Excellent in defence.
[1]   Sam Walsh:      Another very solid game from Walsh, whose 28 possessions included a goal and 4 clearances.
[1]   Francis Evans:   Frankie’s first half was probably the best he has played for us. Quiter in the 2nd half, but still an excellent game against his old mob.
[1]   Will Hayward:      Very solid again. Dangerous.
[0.5]   Billy Wilson:      Much improved, Billy dash and kicking was a highlight.
[0.5]   Nic Newman:      Very solid again in defence.
[0.5]   Nick Haynes:      Haynes was really good all night.
[0.5]   Jack Ison:      Probably an almost game, with 1 goal three.
[0.5]   Lachie Cowan:   Continuing his fine form in defence. His marking and run were excellent.

Honourable Mentions:
Ben Ainsworth:      Probably the most consistent of our name recruits.
Mitch McGovern:      Always dangerous. Kicked well.
Brodie Kemp:         Ver dangerous in attack.
Adam Cerra:         Not back to his best, but he was better than he has been and his disposals were more effective.
Wade Derksen:      An excellent game in defence.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by Adelaideblue -
Hard not to be impressed with the style of football we played against Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide and be excited by the results. However, maybe a little early to be reaching conclusions around major improvements in game style and performance.
We have 10 games against other teams, before we play the Western Bulldogs again, so these performance may tell the real story.  All eyes on Geelong match Friday, fingers crossed.

Geelong, Essendon, Bye
GWS, West Coast, Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, St Kilda.
 
Ps. Great to be at Adelaide Oval last Saturday night and watch us win there for a change.
Pps. & well done EB with your 5 goal win prediction.................hmm this week?
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: shawny – on
Source: ESPN AU

                                                Under Voss                         Under Fraser

Uncontested Marks:                    13th                                         1st
Long kicks %:                                9th                                        18th
45 degree kicks:                           15th                                        3rd
D50 to i50%:                                13th                                        2nd
Kick i50 Retention %                     6th                                         2nd

Even im surprised with how quickly the old gameplan was changed and match day implemented with the same list.

Assuming this data is correct.....
Can anyone explain the following.....
Carlton 2026 Season Mark Profile: Round-by-Round

RoundOpponentTotal MarksContestedUncontestedMarks inside 50Uncontested %
Opening RoundSwans69861588.4%
Round 1Tigers751065786.7%
Round 2BYE——0——
Round 3Demons9211811288.0%
Round 4Kangas1148106793.0%
Round 5Crows50743686.0%
Round 6Magpies10111901389.1%
Round 7Dockers8510751288.2%
Round 8Saints11871111594.1%
Round 9Lions9516792083.2%
Round 10Dogs1248116593.5%
Round 11Power10811971889.8%
TOTAL103110792412089.6%
Does that show any significant difference in the way we play?

Thats the only data i can find, the other stats are not available to the public.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by laj -
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: laj – on
We did it for 4 qtrs the last 2 weeks. Before then, for half a game we were probably last for those measures each week. Fact is we were 1-8, now we are 3-8. That's the one measure that matters and executing those statistical measures much better.

....and if we played Dogs and Port every game we'd be 11-0.
We were 1-8, we weren't beating anyone. The one we did win was Richmond by 4pts. So, that proves you wrong yet again. Dogs and Port aren't exactly Essendon and Richmond. Port hammered Geelong 4 weeks ago and the Dogs beat Melbourne. They're not Freo and Sydney but they aren't poor either. They a always solid tests, especially in Adelaide.
 
Anyway, keep on spinning. I'm sure you'll be barracking hard for Geelong Friday just so you feel you are right.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: laj – on
Quote from: LP – on

Publish the link, I hope it wasn't the article that ranks career stats versus the last 2 games, aka the MAGA of all stats!

btw., Did you read the stats for the last 6 games, or are all stats bogus? :D

As @Thryleon had already linked for the various overnight miracle believers https://x.com/i/status/2059208469161590794

We did it for 4 qtrs the last 2 weeks. Before then, for half a game we were probably last for those measures each week. Fact is we were 1-8, now we are 3-8. That's the one measure that matters and executing those statistical measures much better.

....and if we played Dogs and Port every game we'd be 11-0.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2026 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Last post by laj -
Quote from: LP – on
Quote from: shawny – on
Even im surprised with how quickly the old gameplan was changed and match day implemented with the same list.
Publish the link, I hope it wasn't the article that ranks career stats versus the last 2 games, aka the MAGA of all stats!

btw., Did you read the stats for the last 6 games, or are all stats bogus? :D

As @Thryleon had already linked for the various overnight miracle believers https://x.com/i/status/2059208469161590794

We did it for 4 qtrs the last 2 weeks. Before then, for half a game we were probably last for those measures each week. Fact is we were 1-8, now we are 3-8. That's the one measure that matters and executing those statistical measures much better.