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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by Thryleon -Ah the old, 'simply wasnt any talented talls available this year' argument. I hear that one most years.
The talls in this draft were of a relative standard of talent. remember you wonder why a highly rated (or not highly) wasnt taken, cast your mind to some players.
1. Sam Wiedemann and Scott Gumbleton, Matthew Watson.
2. Nick Larkey Brodie Mihocek.
Ultimately, there is not telling what happens from drafted to playing at AFL level.
its not about their talent level. The next Wayne Carey may very well have been selected in this draft, but for every one of those, there is plenty of examples of talent taken who never kick on.
Thats not to say dont select one. Ultimately I always think back to the draft where we took Pat Mccarthy, Luke Mitchell and Andrew Mccinnes as a reason to defer to a higher authority.
Maybe you have a better knowledge of the prospects. For me, Ive seen maybe 8 minutes of footage of each player I advocate for us taking at the draft, and thats not really enough to know better than the guys employed to do this job.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by DJC -Taking a player in the draft is not a random, spontaneous, opportunistic decision by an individual. It is a calculated, scenario-driven process by team of talent scouts, data analysts, strategists and list managers with dossiers on every potential draft pick. They're also dealing with 17 other clubs who are equally determined to follow their strategies and won't agree to pick trades unless it's to their advantage. A club can't simply "trade up" without convincing other clubs that it's in their interests to take part. Do they get it wrong? Of course they do, but nowhere near as often as footy fans like to think.
List management with the benefit of hindsight is easy.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by Lods -
I flagged at the end of night 1 that we should trade up 3 spots to ensure we get 'our guy' whoever that may be. This is before we let someone else bid on ison ensuring it would allow us to get both.
Opportunity was there, it didn't happen, i can't buy that excuse.
Of course you can't buy it.
Because we 'play' draft night (and the trade period also) in our minds and on keyboards and not in the 'real' world.
And in our world everything plays out to get the result we desire.
We have no idea of the discussion between clubs and only a vague, and often biased, knowledge of list management priorities for the night and how they affect the make up of a list for the following year and in the future.
We don't see or hear the talks between clubs (other than maybe some vague report that they are discussing a player or picks).
We don't see or hear the offers that club make on the night.
We don't know the offers to trade up or down that are rejected.
We arent privy to the phone calls.
We have absolutely no idea of other clubs strategies and priorities and why they would be willing to trade up or down a couple of spots (they may have an interest in exactly the same player).
If you can think of a sceanrio, a list management team has probably also thought of the same scenario, but with much greater appreciation of the pros and cons... and the obstacles.
We look at a draft profile and see "Ooh, He's tall and he has more strengths than weaknesses, lets pick him!"
We don't spend hours observing these young players actually playing, and talking to them, which sometimes might reveal something other than playing ability, that might make a club hit pause on the player or overlook them completely.
And then we ask, WTF were they thinking
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by kruddler -Luckily it looks like we have finally thrown out "the formula", it's like our first step towards success.
The formulaic approach to recruitment and list management, tactics too, is just more of what everyone else does, and that just makes you achieve the average.
Thing with being average and changing the way you do things, it can also leave you further behind the rest as a result
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by kruddler -They could have picked a tall at 28, and probably would have had Emmett slipped through. But when he went they traded the pick.
That probably is a fair indication they didn't rate any of the talls following.
I flagged at the end of night 1 that we should trade up 3 spots to ensure we get 'our guy' whoever that may be. This is before we let someone else bid on ison ensuring it would allow us to get both.
Opportunity was there, it didn't happen, i can't buy that excuse.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by LP -The formulaic approach to recruitment and list management, tactics too, is just more of what everyone else does, and that just makes you achieve the average.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by Lods -That probably is a fair indication they didn't rate any of the talls following.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by kruddler -10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: List Building - More than one way to skin a cat
Last post by Thryleon -Ill say one thing about the talls from this draft. With Tassie joining in shortly, these talls are going to get more opportunities in future to make it, as there will be a limited bunch that are any good. Letting others take them in this draft, might ensure there are more available in the next and I also expect that any keys that are floating around will get more opportunities as a result. I reckon Essendon might have one or two that will be free to a good home at the end of next season too, as they went recruiting as many as they could in 2025 to fill in temporary holes.
For those that like to say pessismist and optimist, I simply go realist. I expect somewhere between spots 6 and 12 for 2026. Spots lower than 10 will see us change coach at the end of the season unless we end up having another Annus Horribilius and lose many players across the season. Thats the scenario we drop as low as 14th. If things go swimmingly, depending on other results, we could sneak into top 6 and put us in the frame for a flag. Thats what I am hoping for, but I dont think it will happen either.
I think an average result for us will be in the wildcard places. Wont be happy, wont be dissapointed, but missing that without some extenuating circumstances will mean time for a new coach.
I'm trying to follow your train of thought here, but i'm missing something.
Are you saying there will be more talls available next year because teams like Essendon have extra talls so some will be available?
Isn't that us hoping to secure rejects from other teams? Is that the best way to go about it??
I really don't like a list management strategy that relies on other teams giving us what we need. Its destined for failure.
Also, the ones taken now are going to get more chances to make it because the new team will require an additional 6 key position players minimum as part of their talent pool.
So, the key position players taken in 2025, might prevent you from getting a good or really good one in the next draft based on how the talent was rated.
We wont know for years