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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by northernblue -
I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.
That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.
Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.
The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.
Maybe.
Its hardly statistically significant, but there are a few random different facebook groups (1000's on each) that sometimes stray into political debates. I would say 90% of the time One nation gets a push, its started from a QLDer.
Maybe its specific to this type of group(s) but thats where my gut feel comes from.
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The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Cricket thread
Last post by DJC -4
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by kruddler -Despite all of this, my gut feel is that one nation is a lot bigger in the northern states.
I suspect you wouldn't see a lot of difference in One Nation 'electoral' support between Victoria, and a place like Queensland.
It'd be pretty much the same around that low 20% mark.
That doesn't mean Northerners aren't more conservative/right leaning in their political views.
But those views are probably addressed by more 'right leaning' LNP and Independent candidates in the North.
Why switch to ON when you already have some who basically shares your political and social views.
The 'electoral' problem One Nation faces is that their support is patchy.
It will be particularly strong in some areas....up over 30% perhaps.
But in others they will struggle around 10-15%
That's why the main focus in Victoria probably won't be the overall level of support for ON, but how it translates into actual seats in the parliament.
Maybe.
Its hardly statistically significant, but there are a few random different facebook groups (1000's on each) that sometimes stray into political debates. I would say 90% of the time One nation gets a push, its started from a QLDer.
Maybe its specific to this type of group(s) but thats where my gut feel comes from.
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The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Cricket thread
Last post by DJC -After Scotty Boland's batting in the 2nd Test, he could well be that "all-rounder"Let's not get too excited.
People forget though that before he started bowling Boland was actually an opening batsmen in sub-district, I think he started bowling because as an opening batsmen he had limitations!
My problem with the Starc, is that he's the 1 in 5 man, his bowling along with Hazelwood not bowling, basically cost us the last test, our batting was poor but other than Boland nobody looked like making a dent. We made nowhere near enough, and they made way more than they ever should have! Today is the typical Starc problem, people have already forgotten 3 or 4 innings of top end pie chucking because he cleans up the tail end so effectively.
Today we have Starc saying without Lyon they all suffer, Lyon is saying he's nothing without Starc and Hazelwood, that's the @Professer E cartel in full swing!
btw. They pumped up Lyon for his first wicket, but that Saffie bloke basically threw his wicket away, if instead they had batted along at regular pace it looked like they could make 200 each!
We've had this discussion before and Boland wasn't an opening bat in sub-district. He opened the batting as a junior when all kids had to bat and bowl but moved down the order as he focused more on bowling.
My comment was tongue in cheek; Scotty has the ability and technigue to hold up an end as a nightwatchman, but he's never going to be a run-scoring allrounder.
As for Starc, he is the ICC's number 1 ranked Test bowler, Australia's fourth highest wicket-taker, and Wisden ranks him as the 4th best left-arm fast bowlers of all time.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by DJC -Jess Wilson is campaigning well and the most recent polls give her the lead. However, it seems that there's no uniform swing to the L-NP from the ALP and we should see a patchwork of results with some electorates sticking with the ALP, some being won by the L-NP and a couple going to PHON. I'm sticking with my prediction of a minority government, probably L-NP, and a hostile upper house.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by Lods -Why would you advocate a vote for One Nation if you want to see an end to Labor.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by shawny -Im with you on voting for Liberal, but sadly, I think what I forecasted will play out. Labor will form government and win through preference voting. The libs arent popular enough and have been a bottle job for too long.
Libs will win with a majority and so they should. 12 years of the current clown act is well and truly enough and the voters know it this time.
The corruption and lies from this mob has gone on for long enough and everyone with even just a few functioning brain cells knows it and will vote accordingly
Even though the rusted on old Labor voters still trying to strike fear by saying Libs wont be any better, look at want Kennett did a quarter of a century ago, Libs may even be worse, careful want you wish for........ goes on and on and on.
Its their last ditch effort to impart so doubt when its all they have to cling to - well too much damage has been done to our once great state for that only remaining strategy to work on this occasion.
Im very confident this time -
Labors ability to govern rating is an all time low and Carroll knows it. Putting aside all the corruption under their watch and the sad state of essential services in vic and the 200 BILLION debt its their lack of leadership at the top that typifies them IMO - no integrity or honesty in any of them.
I recall vividly, Dictator Dan categorically stating in one of his many pre elections lies he would not be resigning mid term dispite all the rumours he would and within a few months he did exactly that. Then we are forced to accept the unelected Premier Jacinta who oversaw the big build disaster with 15B goneski and like Dan took no accountability. So she was booted out and we have to accept the 2nd unelected premier in Carroll - and all this in the one term!
How any voter can trust a word that come from this absolute rabble of a party is beyond me
Carrolls campaign in comparing the liberals with Kennetts ruin considering it was over a 1/4 of century ago is an insight as to how desperate they are. Then stating he would fix the hospitals was the cherry on top as to their utter stupidity - FMD...... They had 12 years to fix them and this bloke promises he finally will do it now - how convenient Ben!
So unless we were voting for the next Hilter or Kim Jong Un, we cannot get any worse - Libs are far from perfect but will be a vast improvement on what we have suffered with the corrupt lying clowns we have had in power for over the last decade.
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Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Shawny’s concerns about Victorian and Australian Governments
Last post by LP -PHON is basically stealing the traditional regional vote, which is ironic because her policies and her backers are basically going to roger them rigid. I don't think she'll have much impact on the major parties, she is a clown, and further nobody I know who has ever voted Liberal is ever going to vote for a Bananaby related party ever!
I think it'll be closer than people realise, and probably decided by voters swinging between the major parties. To me it's too close to call, but there is plenty of time left for one or all of them to screw up a bit more!
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The Sports Desk / Re: God help me - the Cricket thread
Last post by LP -After Scotty Boland's batting in the 2nd Test, he could well be that "all-rounder"
People forget though that before he started bowling Boland was actually an opening batsmen in sub-district, I think he started bowling because as an opening batsmen he had limitations!
My problem with the Starc, is that he's the 1 in 5 man, his bowling along with Hazelwood not bowling, basically cost us the last test, our batting was poor but other than Boland nobody looked like making a dent. We made nowhere near enough, and they made way more than they ever should have! Today is the typical Starc problem, people have already forgotten 3 or 4 innings of top end pie chucking because he cleans up the tail end so effectively.
Today we have Starc saying without Lyon they all suffer, Lyon is saying he's nothing without Starc and Hazelwood, that's the @Professer E cartel in full swing!
btw. They pumped up Lyon for his first wicket, but that Saffie bloke basically threw his wicket away, if instead they had batted along at regular pace it looked like they could make 200 each!