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Messages - DamonBlue

16
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: JLT Round 1 - Blues v Hird's Old Crew (this Thursday, Princes Park)
The more we get the likes of Setterfield, Kennedy, Dow, SPS, Fisher and Walsh in the middle this season and Cripps out, the better we will be long term.
These guys have to learn to win their own ball without Cripps constantly dishing it out to them.

JH, out where? Why would you play the best clearance player in the comp anywhere other than in the middle? I don't think the others need Cripps to not be there in order to learn.
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: JLT Round 1 - Blues v Hird's Old Crew (this Thursday, Princes Park)
Whilst an extremely classy looking player generally, I find his disposals sometimes look a bit weak or unadventurous. Certainly rarely what I would call "damaging". He seems to favour the shorter, safer options by foot. More damaging by hand I think with his close in quick gives?

I've noticed that too, Cookie. Rarely has much 'penetration'. Not sure whether it's skill-related or a confidence thing. Walsh looks a lot more inclined to mix up the lines by foot, so far.
23
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
That's a fairly good assessment. 
Not sure the Crow's will improve that much, if at all. I have them in the status quo category; at least I hope so.

I'd move Sydney and Tigers to "remain the same". Franklin, Reiwoldt and Lynch will all benefit from the new rules and that will keep them up there.

Saints will slide, IMO. Richo's tenure looks very shaky and Geary's recent comments make it even worse, suggesting there's a lack of connection between the players and the coach. Ratts in the background too. I just think they're too unstable to go anywhere but down and the Hannebury thing is a mistake.
24
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Rising Star 2017
Great post, Lods.

Charlie only needs to keep going the way he has been - he seems to naturally improve and to have the appetite to do so.

Caleb's problem, IMO, largely mental. He needs to realise that he's expected to be a leader down back now. The time for taking the lead from Simmo, Daisy and Doc is over. I reckon he'll make it and hope to see him step up this year. Very good player.

Sammo. I'm sorry to say that I don't think he'll get there as a midfielder. Has some great skills (although his kicking lacks penetration), but I don't see the appetite to be consistent and work both ways and there's simply too much competition in the midfield now. I hope I'm wrong. His best hope is a move to the HFF. I think he's actually better suited to that role and we lack quality in that area.

Cunners, too, ain't up to it in my view. Does some nice things sometimes, but not enough of them.

Jack has put on some height over the pre-season. I'm not sure whether that helps him or not though! What he really lacks is pace - he's as slow as treacle. As I've said before, I think he should aim to fill Daisy's boots, as a utility who can play forward, back or on the ball. If his pace has improved, he'll make it. I worry for him if not.
25
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
The issue is being overthought.

If any Club wants their Coach gone, then he will be GONE.

I think BB will need a few good wins eg an upset over a good side (RD 1 would be nice!) + a couple of others before the break or the knives will come out.....

Looking at the draw, could we eat Port rd 2? Not out of the question.

Swans at Docklands? Yep, possibly.

GC up north - hopefully!!

Bulldogs at Docklands - sure.

Hawks in Tassie? Yep, no Mitchell....

Norf at Marvel? Maybe.

Pies at the G? hmmmm

GWS up there? Tough.

But it's hardly a terrible draw - there are numerous winnable games there.....

Yep, we certainly won't have the draw to blame, FB.

I'm looking for at least 5 wins, as a pass mark.

We play both St Kilda and GC twice - we should win at least 3 of them.

We should win one of the Bulldogs games - play them twice also.

The Lions at the 'G in round 8 - we should get up.

That's five very winnable games already, and I think we'll upset at least one side. As you say, FB, hopefully in Round 1!
26
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Round 1 - Blues v Tigers (21 March)
I'm probably echoing most people's thoughts in saying that I can imagine us winning this, but can equally imagine getting trounced.

If Kreuzer plays, you'd think that would give us an edge over them with the new rules and our good centre clearance record from last year. Obviously, having first use and the extra space to get it forward should help the three talls to actually kick a score.

On the other hand, our defence really worries me. I re-watched last year's round 1 game again last night and, jeez, we let them have such an open forward set up and Weiters, Jones, Marchbank and Plowman looked completely lost, out of position and slow for much of the time. I'd be going with more of a man-on-man approach this time, which means having some pacier smalls. I'd actually try Polson down there, rather than forward, and O'Brien. Newman will also be crucial. If we can give Richmond the idea that the ball can come bouncing back out with some purpose, that might make them play less frenetically.

Reckon it will be a high-scoring game. We'll win if we stick tight in defence. If they open us up there, we'll get flogged.
27
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?

That's really interesting - thanks, FIB.

Well, we can take out the top 7!!

I hate to say it - in fact I have a little bit of vomit in my mouth as I do - but I think the Bombres look the most likely.
28
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
The difficulty with predicting where we'll finish is that we could improve quite significantly without winning many more games. That is, we were so dreadful last year that marked improvement might not translate to wins.

This year, I'll be *happy* if we:
- win 5+
- beat someone in the top six; and
- don't lose more than 1 game by 40+.

That would set us up for a genuine climb the year after.

I'll be disappointed with anything less.