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Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #75
Whilst I enjoy reading the more optimistic of posters on here and am usually with you or at least wanting to be, the reality is that every single game we’ve been in front we all have that sinking feeling that we will be let down, again. And it did happen today, again.

We just don’t seem to have those players - bar Cripps- that stand up and demand a win for us because damnit we are playing for finals we will do everything we can to make it.  The fourth quarter today was so depressing to watch because we knew how it would go and it did. On multiple occasions I saw our players not putting pressure on! All they had to do was play their guts out for another 25 minutes, put every ounce of themselves into that last 25 minutes to get the win and keep us in finals contention, but nope they didn’t. Cripps did. Harry did but was so exhausted from running up the ground that he then didn’t have the energy left to do what he is there for - kick goals. How often did they just bounce right out of our F50, again and again! Who is there putting pressure on.

These are players who must stand up - Doch - especially! He’s the captain! Setters, so over watching him jog along and not apply pressure! Then there’s Fogarty, owies, stuff all from them.

It’s so frustrating watching this team because we do well in a big patch then just get annihilated and give up!

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #76
Problem is the natives see us in front of where we were but other teams who started where we were a long way ahead of where we are now. We are not gaining on the pack like we should be.....our progress has to be in excess of the bulk of other teams or we wont catch up.

Exactly. We are too quick to say ‘yep we are improving’ but it’s a fail if even though we are better then the previous year, the other teams around us or worse below us improve more.
We have been very patient with this rebuild and every year I wait for the big jump up and it never comes.

 

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #77
Your first 4 words nail it.
"Problem is the natives"

"But Liddle said...."
"But i thought...."
"But but but....."

Look at Melbourne. Up and down more than a yo-yo.
The path to success is not linear. No team goes on a smooth, steady path to success. There are ups and downs.

At the start of the year people were pining for Ratten after what he had done with St. Kilda.
There were times when the bombers had leapfrogged us too......then not....now again...

Forget other teams. Focus on us. Focus on our results. Focus on what is available to us on any given match day.

Lods and I always used to point out that one of the best indicators of how good (or bad) a club is going is by looking at their %.
On any given day a bounce of the ball could be the difference between 4 points and 0.
Instead, % shows you how competitive you are across the whole season.

Currently, on the ladder in terms of wins/losses, we are above 5 teams.
However, looking at %, we are above 8 teams.
Once we start to play more of the teams from the bottom half of the ladder our wins will grow....as will our %.


You cant forget the other teams thats the problem, I know success isnt linear always but you need a catalyst to propel you at
a greater rate than the other contenders. eg Petracca and Oliver have gone to the next level. May and Lever are now basically the best duo defensively in the comp....result Melbourne push up the ladder.
I dont see a catalyst for us unless Charlie Curnow comes back firing on all cylinders...

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #78
You cant forget the other teams thats the problem, I know success isnt linear always but you need a catalyst to propel you at
a greater rate than the other contenders. eg Petracca and Oliver have gone to the next level. May and Lever our now basically the best duo defensively in the comp....result Melbourne push up the ladder.
I dont see a catalyst for us unless Charlie Curnow comes back firing on all cylinders...
Forget other teams.....well let me put it this way. We have no control over other teams. So don't worry about them. Some will get better. Some will get worse. Worry about improving us (relatively speaking) and the rest will take care of itself.

Its funny you point out Oliver going to another level. Half the blokes on here didn't want him on our list when it was a possibility.
You see the difference being fit and in form can make. Lets look at the same thing with a couple of our blokes.

Last year we ended up 7-10.
If we go 3-3 from our next 6, we end up at 7-10.

WCE in sydney
GWS
Ade
Freo
Cats
Pies

I reckon we will win 3 or more of those games.
So we'll match or better our record from last year......and there is still more games to play....including against North!

Just focus on us, and the rest will take care of itself.

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #79
Enough weasel words Kruddler - "percentage says we're improving" is BS and you know it.   Wins are the currency of football and we're not getting enough of them.

Liddle burnt most of his capital knifing SoS and his quote "the time for development is over", well,  let's just say the rank and file have had enough of the marketing spin and without tangible results quickly he'll be down at centre link. 
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #80
Enough weasel words Kruddler - "percentage says we're improving" is BS and you know it.   Wins are the currency of football and we're not getting enough of them.

Liddle burnt most of his capital knifing SoS and his quote "the time for development is over", well,  let's just say the rank and file have had enough of the marketing spin and without tangible results quickly he'll be down at centre link. 
BS you reckon?

We've played 11 games. 6 of them have been against teams in the top 8 currently (Since you love %'s so much, that 55% of our games have been against top 8 sides).

From our last 11 games, 3 of them are against top 8 sides. (Thats 27% ;) )

Our average losing margin this year is 22 points.
Our average winning margin is 24 points.

If we continue to beat sides outside the 8, and lose 1 we should win.... at the same average winning margin.
And
If we continue to lose to side in the 8, by the same average losing margin.

At the end of the year we will be
11-11 with a % of 100.9%

So you tell me, is that an improvement?

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #81
Blah blah blah blah statistical gobedlygook.   Whatever.  Over it.  If you think we're going to  end up 11-11, bully for you Nostradamus.  Can I have a crystal ball too,  mine's broken.
Also,  you didn't factor in the three losses against teams "we should beat but didn't".   So 8-14 is more likely.

However,  leaving aside pulling predictions from thin air,  in the here and now my eyes see that we're playing poorer footy than 2020.  Last year we beat some good teams (like Geelong), this year we struggle to just beat also rans.  That means we're regressing as a club.  Yes,  GOING BACKWARDS.
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #82
Blah blah blah blah statistical gobedlygook.   Whatever.  Over it.  If you think we're going to  end up 11-11, bully for you Nostradamus.  Can I have a crystal ball too,  mine's broken.
Also,  you didn't factor in the three losses against teams "we should beat but didn't".   So 8-13 is more likely.

However,  leaving aside pulling predictions from thin air,  in the here and now my eyes see that we're playing poorer footy than 2020.  Last year we beat some good teams (like Geelong), this year we struggle to just beat also rans.  That means we're regressing as a club.  Yes,  GOING BACKWARDS.

Shows your comprehension skills are about as good as your analytical skills. I did factor in a lose a game we should win already. ;)

Tell me since your crystal ball is broken, look at the pieces on the ground and tell me what you think we'll end up at w/l at the end of the year.

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #83
To win 11 games this year means we need to win 7 from our last 11. Not what our current percentage of wins shows. Highly unlikely and almost not possible. The only real count of progress must be wins. Not close losses or could have been results. Percentage, loss averages versus previous years form. With West Coast coming off a loss, then GWS, Adelaide, Fred and Geelong, we could easily see no wins in the next 5 games. We better take sh1t seriously at this club. Some fine tuning needs to start soon. Really soon. Otherwise we won’t get the 8 wins for the season we are heading towards. Am I imagining things, or do other clubs better develop their kids? Just asking the question. I start to sense a pattern. A trend. Playing guys who need a rest. Playing players where they don’t play at their best. Not picking the right squad and not coaching the side to win in the final quarter. Not confident in our next encounter. Might just be me being a fool.
This digital world is too much for us insects to understand.

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #84
To win 11 games this year means we need to win 7 from our last 11. Not what our current percentage of wins shows. Highly unlikely and almost not possible. The only real count of progress must be wins. Not close losses or could have been results. Percentage, loss averages versus previous years form. With West Coast coming off a loss, then GWS, Adelaide, Fred and Geelong, we could easily see no wins in the next 5 games. We better take sh1t seriously at this club. Some fine tuning needs to start soon. Really soon. Otherwise we won’t get the 8 wins for the season we are heading towards. Am I imagining things, or do other clubs better develop their kids? Just asking the question. I start to sense a pattern. A trend. Playing guys who need a rest. Playing players where they don’t play at their best. Not picking the right squad and not coaching the side to win in the final quarter. Not confident in our next encounter. Might just be me being a fool.
No, I feel the same.

Walsh is a freak and came to us ready made but what youth have we developed?  Who can you honestly say, besides H, has improved. Ok weiters is another but then I can’t think of another,

Dekoning is looking good. But then who else?


Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #85
Shows your comprehension skills are about as good as your analytical skills. I did factor in a lose a game we should win already. ;)

Tell me since your crystal ball is broken, look at the pieces on the ground and tell me what you think we'll end up at w/l at the end of the year.
A few weeks ago, I said we'd go 9-13, not so sure anymore.
It was the week of the Melb game, here were my predictions
Mel L
Haw W
Syd   L
WC   L
GWS L
Adel W
Fre W
Geel L
Coll   W
NM   W
StK   L
GC W
PA L
GWS L
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #86
To win 11 games this year means we need to win 7 from our last 11. Not what our current percentage of wins shows. Highly unlikely and almost not possible. The only real count of progress must be wins. Not close losses or could have been results. Percentage, loss averages versus previous years form. With West Coast coming off a loss, then GWS, Adelaide, Fred and Geelong, we could easily see no wins in the next 5 games. We better take sh1t seriously at this club. Some fine tuning needs to start soon. Really soon. Otherwise we won’t get the 8 wins for the season we are heading towards. Am I imagining things, or do other clubs better develop their kids? Just asking the question. I start to sense a pattern. A trend. Playing guys who need a rest. Playing players where they don’t play at their best. Not picking the right squad and not coaching the side to win in the final quarter. Not confident in our next encounter. Might just be me being a fool.
11-11, not a hope in hell
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #87
No, I feel the same.

Walsh is a freak and came to us ready made but what youth have we developed?  Who can you honestly say, besides H, has improved. Ok weiters is another but then I can’t think of another,

Dekoning is looking good. But then who else?

Stocker has clearly improved.
Cuningham improved before doing his knee.
Parks is a positive too.

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #88
A few weeks ago, I said we'd go 9-13, not so sure anymore.
It was the week of the Melb game, here were my predictions
Haw W
Syd   L
WC   L
GWS L
Adel W
Fre W
Geel L
Coll   W
NM   W
StK   L
GC W
PA L
GWS L

Win 2 of those games, and we are 11-11.

It must've been an 'up' week for those 2 when you did your predictions.
Both were very average since.

Saints lost by 111.
GWS by 10 goals.

Re: Post Game Analysis: AFL 2021 Rd 11: Carlton vs Sydney

Reply #89
Win 2 of those games, and we are 11-11.

It must've been an 'up' week for those 2 when you did your predictions.
Both were very average since.

Saints lost by 111.
GWS by 10 goals.
Nah they've just owned us for so long, form means nothing. We are Carlton.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time