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Messages - Lods

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
(What was the big Supertramp hit from 1975? Maybe that's me at this moment).  ;)  ;)

You're nothing but a "Dreamer" Baggers
 ;)  :D

Although , it wouldn't surprise in the least if we showed some dramatic improvement.
These are the type of games that often produce the upset.
A bit of overconfidence by Brisbane, a better effort and intensity from us...who knows.
The more likely scenario will be business as usual...but we can only hope.

The team selections will be particularly interesting and may tell a story, especially around the ruck options
2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
I think the take away from all this is that players need to be judged individually because there are a number of factors at play.

One 30 year old may be done and dusted, another in their prime.
Genetics is one factor-Size and shape, how well they age.
Injury impact and recovery is another.
The way they play and the position they play can also impact on a players longevity...espcially if they play a physical bash and crash style like Cripps.

You really can't tell, because it's a fact that we all age differently.
It's probably also a fact that once you hit 30 you're closer to the end of your career than the beginning.
With that in mind, if there is no a great deal between two players-one aged 25 the other 30 you'll go with the younger player because you'll get more time with him.
3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
Marshall and Cameron are the same age.

People don't seem to realise that Marshall will be 30 by the end of the year.
All of these replacement rucks are at that age. I'm not swapping a first round pick for any 30 yo.
We have Pittonet in that bracket and swapping him out for another ruck is not going to give us a '1st rounder value' of output upgrade in that position. If we are giving away first rounders, i'd much rather do it on another position.


You're right
Given his age, I've changed my mind.
Our best option may be to go with Pittonet and HOK for next year and pick up Flynn Riley in the draft for development (before someone else gets him)
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane


Cameron is too old and would hate to go from their culture to us IMO.

Marshall would be a great get - his tap work and work at ground level is exactly what we need. As TDK best work is when he is the sole ruck, they cant have Marshall in their long term plans unless they will play him as a forward but that seems unlikely. He would have a point to prove and if the offer is good he may be tempted but being contracted old mate SOS will 100% want the farm in return.

While Pit gives effort he's a old school slow lumbering ruck man which we cant have as our main option if we want to improve especially with the one paced midfield we currently have.
  
Marshall gets a lot of the ball and would be the ideal replacement to take over the duties of TDK whose major benefit to us is his work as a defacto midfielder who can win clearances and provide drive from stoppages.
The only problem I see is he is contracted for two more years and Im sure the price would be our compo pick with maybe a late pick back..

Given that compo pick could blow out a bit I reckon it's not a bad price to pay for a proven player as opposed to a speculative one.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
Not every North player was enamoured about Pagan and his methods. I've heard Adam Simpson describe some of his "coaching" in less than glowing terms and Corey McKernan was not a fan either - he left to come to us, and checked out again when Pagan came across to us.  There's two examples straight off the bat.
Kouta writes about it in detail in his book.  It was 1980s hard ass coaching for a 2000s group that didn't respond to that approach.  Some people would call them "soft", others would say they were independent enough to not unthinkingly swallow abuse and BS.
Pagan was the kind of coach you played to spite, not to because he was your mate.

I'm 2 pages behind, so sorry if this has been mentioned...
Pagan and Malthouse had long stints at their previous clubs, the entire list was "theirs" so players either bought in or withered and died.
When you transplant those "old" coaches to a new environment, straight away you get 40 guys saying to themselves "he cant talk to me like that, Ive played my whole career here and hes been here 5 mins "

I think that was probably the case with Pagan.
We were in something of a transition  period, with many of our players from a successful time under Parkin and to some extent Brittain nearing the end of their careers.
The younger group from that mid 1990 era had experienced a pretty successful time. They'd also been mentored by a very talented older group.
There seemed to have been a strong connection to Brittain and the injury riddled 2002 season probably came as a bit of unexpected shock to everyone

So when the poor finish and the upheavel came at the end of the year and as older players started to depart rather quickly in the following period to be replaced by a bit of a foreign legion it would have been a pretty unsettled environment.
Into that mix throw a "my way, or the highway coach" like Pagan and it's not hard to understand the resentment.
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
Id be dropping TDK and Charlie Curnow this week, the former has checked out and has been poor the past few weeks and Charlie hasnt kicked a goal for three weeks and been half arsed and ultra casual about his work and Id have both in the VFL team for a couple of weeks to think about their responsibilities to the team.
If they want to sulk about it they can stay in the ressies, and in Charlies case Id put him up for trade if he wouldnt change his attitude. Voss has been reticent to drop big names probably because his job is on the line and he fears losing their support but I think if we had done it earlier on we might have sent a stronger message on how the club will be operating for the rest of the season and that when he said get used to being comfortable about being uncomfortable he meant it.


He was often maligned but one of the players who left us to go to another club who I really admire was Bryce Gibbs.
He tried 'unsuccessfully' to head to Adelaide at the end of the 2016 season but  deal couldn't be done.
He didn't sook about it.
He came back in  2017 and put his head down and played some really good football, statistically one of his best seasons (43 disposals and 10 tackles in one game)
He knew he would try again for the move at the end of the year but still gave us good efforts.
Tom looks likely to go.
The least we can expect is that he plays in a similar fashion right up until the end.
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
I suspect it's more likely there are factions between players than a specific issue with the coach.

If there are factions in our group they are enabled and driven by the culture at the club, these things do not form bottom up without some failure of governance.


Whether this is true or not, it does at least sound plausible IMO.



I think it's very plausible

We can't know for sure, and we're all a bit guided by our own perceptions.

So with that in mind....
To me it seems like there are a group of players who fully embrace the style of play Voss is trying to accomplish.
They're supportive, and are trying to push those less committed to play in the same way.
And while that second group may be partially on board, that type of football is physically demanding and high pressure.
When you're not on board 100%, and sometimes not physically capable, or doubt your ability to perform an assigned task then it's difficult to commit fully, and as the pressure of the game intensifies you get that drop off of effort.
Doubt sets in..."this isn't working", "it's happening again"

It's not a major rift between players...they all seem to get around when someone does well.
They've flown the flag a couple of times.
They may be fairly tight off the field.
It's more the subtle support on field that somtimes seems to be lacking, the things that are hardly noticeable-blocking, shepherding, support in tackles, running hard to provide an option.

Of course that's all just a personal guess and may be well off the mark.
But something is just not right and at the moment it doesn't seem fixable.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
I blame Parkin/ Brittain and their player empowerment. >:(
There was a time when the coach had the power...except for Percy Jones :D
Who by a strange quirk is our most statistically successful coach apart from a couple of stand-ins in the last 100 years.
Perhaps that's the secret.
Change the coach every year. ;)
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane



Which brings us back to the original argument....
Are these players still some of the best?
Are they playing like some of the best at the moment?
If not, will they be some of the best again.

The old saying that a "Champion team will always beat a team of Champions" probably applies to us in spades when you consider how well some opposition clubs 'team' together.
We're not in the same ballpark in terms of connection.

Class is permanent until you cant run and jump.
Half the 1995 Premiership team were in their 30s with long injury histories.

Who were the players over 30 in the 1995 premiership side?
How many of those had long injury histories?
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
I dont think we need players that are the best in the comp in a said position. We need players that know and understand what they are doing. For us, we have some of the best players in the competition which makes our position untenable.


Which brings us back to the original argument....
Are these players still some of the best?
Are they playing like some of the best at the moment?
If not, will they be some of the best again.

The old saying that a "Champion team will always beat a team of Champions" probably applies to us in spades when you consider how well some opposition clubs 'team' together.
We're not in the same ballpark in terms of connection.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane
It was a while ago and training and sports medicine has advanced but probably the stand out example was Kouta who was never the same player after injury.
Like most things it is individual specific as to how injuries compound and affect performance...and how people recover.

I'm saying that as they age and injuries compound it will mean that over a time players reach a point where their best is behind them.
I'm pretty certain we've reached that point with Docherty. I suspect it's the same with Saad. Whether it's the same with others is a wait and see...My gut feeling is that of our players who were once considered the best in their positions not all if any will reach those levels again...there are no guarantees either way. But it doesn't mean they can't still be very good valuable players until their inevitable time comes.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2025 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane


It's not defeatist Thry
It's facing reality.
One or two may get back to a semblance of their best.
Others are passed it, and are approaching the end of their careers
And some have suffered significant injuries, not just once , but have had a number of seasons derailed by injury.
Injuries can have a cumulative effect.
When you're young you can recover quickly.
As you age it takes it's toll.
Injuries to a back can lead to compensatory injuries in the hamstrings, calves and feet, due to an imbalance.
Some injuries are degenerative and time (and age) is the enemy.

Now in a group you may get one or two who can make a full recovery and play there best football in their late 20's early 30s.
But if that group is large, the more likely result is that you've seen the best of some of these players.

Of our All-Australian players currently listed I would reckon the majority will never see AA again.
And that was the point.
That they'll all never reach that level again.
We'll have others who will come on...but not all of that group.
But time will tell
sorry lods I just want to say that injuries and dealing with them are part good management, part rehab, part preparation, part attitude, part patience and mostly a little luck.

1I've never met an injured bloke cut down and not capable of playing at the elite level ever again no matter the column of their injuries, they usually run out of time before they run out of lives.  Weiters has barely had a real problem.  Harry has had more issue with concussion than his body.  Charlie is unique.  He's showing the ability he used to have but his form is poor and second efforts absent.  More conditioning IMHO.  once conditioning goes optimum performance is harder to achieve but it can come back.

Pros come back from injuries in every code.  It might be we need some of these guys spending more time rehabbing and playing rather than doing any real training but only a solid pre season affords that capability.  Something they all seem to have suffered with. 

Zac williams has the worst injury history of the bunch.  Nick haynes isnt much better.  Both have played their best footy in years this season.  I think Zac's durability is still a question and given we are playing for naught now, I think weve taken the opportunity to take him off before something serious happens.

I don't think I've suggested that Harry and Charlie cant still play very good football.
What I'm not sure about is their ability to come back and play as good or better football than they have before.
To me that's a wait and see.
They may.
We'll have to agree to disagree.
I think that "running out of time" that you speak of is the cumulative effect of injuries and wear and tear on the body.
It can happen late 20s
It can happen Mid 30s
Just as an example look at Nat Fyfe's last five or six years.
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood


It might be about finding the right moment and the right side to bring them in against.
Do we go for the 'hard' lesson
Moore on Lemmey, or Ben C against the Collingwood midfield might have been an excellent learning experience.
It could also be a confidence sapper.
I'm not sure the Brisbane game is the right one either.
Melbourne would be the game.
But we'll see what they do it might be this week.
When they do get their chance we have to appreciate this is just for development purposes and judge them accordingly.
Lemmey's out of contract this year but I reckon he's worth persisting with for another year

I agree with all you've said here, but there is also the  old "to be the best you need to beat the best" and everyone a chance to pit themselves against the reigning premiers. You might find the young kids putting their hands up begging for a crack at them. If they do, it's to be encouraged I reckon. Its all part of the learning.

Yep
I'm not overly fussed if they try something like Lemmey and Ben Camporeale this week.
As Kruddler mentioned there's not a great deal hanging on it now.
We can manage the minutes.
If it turns to crap we can move a few magnets.
Just wondering though, with the changes last week, and similar changes suggested for this week...is it too much all at once.
There's probably a couple of schools of thought operating here.
One would be for trying to halt or pause the situation with an element of stability.
The other would be for as much youth and experimentation as possible.

A combination would probably be the best approach with a couple of youngsters getting a try each week and replacing a couple of other youngsters.
Give them a couple of games each before the end of the year, and we go into the off-eason with a bit of an idea how they perform at senior level.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 17 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Collingwood
I am a little surprised at some of the strong comments about Friday night (I did end up watching most of it):
 - it wasn't a great side selected and going to lose by plenty.
 - there have been doubts for ages about Cripps', Weiters' fitness and chat about Curnow's.  Leaving them out for who to come in?
 

I suggested last week that Ben come in for Cripps and Lemmey come in for Charlie.

What could we lose by giving them a game?
Lost by 70 instead of 50-odd?
Give them a start and see what happens. Playing an injured and out of form Cripps and Charlie helped us work out.....what exactly?

We are not in a position that we try and win at all costs right now. So lets try and get at least some benefit from it by learning about the kids.

It might be about finding the right moment and the right side to bring them in against.
Do we go for the 'hard' lesson
Moore on Lemmey, or Ben C against the Collingwood midfield might have been an excellent learning experience.
It could also be a confidence sapper.
I'm not sure the Brisbane game is the right one either.
Melbourne would be the game.
But we'll see what they do it might be this week.
When they do get their chance we have to appreciate this is just for development purposes and judge them accordingly.
Lemmey's out of contract this year but I reckon he's worth persisting with for another year