Carlton Supporters Club

Of course this is largely subjective, and everyone is perfectly entitled to their opinion. My position is based primarily on stats that I think are often overlooked.

If people think that being second last in inside 50's and 10% lower than this time last year is 'getting the ball in enough' then I'll go heave. Our conversion of inside 50's into scoring shots and goals is about  the league average. Where I disagree with many though is the assertion that we will 'naturally improve' or the coaches will suddenly switch tack and we will suddenly become much better in attack, despite a 60 game trendline that shows no improvement at all. There is a bit of potential in a few of our youngsters, but we individually and collectively we have delivered very little in attack all year.

A competent forwardline begins with having a bunch of good forwards on your list, with a mix of experienced and developing players - just like we have with the defence and midfield. Until we get more AFL standard forwards onto our list, or start playing the ones we do have, then I can't see how we improve!

That's an interesting example - Port had 64 i50's and 35+shots on goal. The fact that they couldn't convert and only kicked 13 goals is more about their terrible conversion and Hawthorns extra numbers in defence rather than a lack of scoring power. They should have easily kicked 20 goals based on their numbers alone.

I'm curious at what stage you do get worried about our attack? We've been bottom 4 for scoring for the last 3 years, and dead last right now - our kids up forward have some 'potential' but none have even had a breakout game that says they can kick goals at the level. Our key forward is a 27 yo who has only played 80 game and averages a goal a game and less than 10 disposals - in a forwardline where he has no competition. Do we wait until end 2018 or 2019 before we wake up to the fact that our lack of forwards means we will never move off the bottom rungs of the ladder?

Scoring is down, footy has changed, tougher year this year etc.
Sure.

But...
Before last round, we were the only team to not have scored 100 goals so far this season.
We've only played 2 of the top 7 teams thus far so you certainly can't blame a hard draw.

Whatever trends you perceive to be going on, we are still at the bottom of them.

I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??

Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.

Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.

I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.

The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.

The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement

That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.

I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.

Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.

We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.

I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!

If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.

Rant over.......

I was astounded we got rid of Holman...at the time, our list had far bigger problems than this kid.

We will miss Ayres and Exon, but we had to come up with quality for Tayla Harris.
With Harris and Vescio, we have 2 proven goal kickers who can mark the ball well and be dangerous on the ground. It gives our forward line a structure with some real X-Factor.

Our defence looks very solid, with someone to play on just about every type of forward in the game. Stevens can play just about anywhere in defence and should give us drive from defence.

Our midfield is the thing now that needs some improvement. Exon was solid this year, as were most of our mids. However, we lack that lass who can get 30 possessions in the middle. We have quite a good ruck division, but we could really do with really quick midfielder.

Lists are tight with the guys, but they are worse with the girls. It just isn't possible to sit of a couple of girls for a while and develop them, especially if there are injuries (and there are).

Absolutely could have been our goal of the day... maybe the club gave it to Cuningham to pump up his tyres; give him confidence, good goal but no pressure and only 35 metres out? Crippa's, Gibbsey's and Doc's were all under pressure.

For me, this game was a stand out.
For 10 + years when we were on the receiving end of a block of unanswered goals, we would capitulate. We were expected to do the same
Yesterday, sure the box and players lost concentration for a bit, but what happened after was a turning point in growth and confidence.
# 28, grew in confidence, 31 keeps growing, 30 is showing signs. 22 is a star
4 played a blinder, 15 is a warrior 8 keeps giving, 9 is courageous and #3 needs to learn courage from #9
#3 walked of the ground looking too fresh for mine.