I will bet money that either Bell or Graham comes in this week. I doubt both will against Freo. Bell is the hardened body, graham may get a chance against the bulldogs.
carrazzo will get one more. Robbo or Lucas will go. I suspect Robbo. I know Robbo is a hard nut, but he doesn't get enough of it to worry oppositions. The hit on ablett was the first I can remember that didn't result in robbo getting concussion. Oppositions just don't respect him. Bell obviously can find the ball, so he will hurt opposition midfielders physically, more often.... Maybe just not as spectacularly. Rowe will find it very difficult to hold his place based on last week. Levi has been outing his hand up each week in the VFL. Could hendo Rowe and cas play up there? Risky but with Waite unlikely to be back anytime soon, then maybe. Especially if we can sub one of them early if required.
We have some players in the best form of their careers- Simmo, Tuohy, Walker, Hendo. Yet we have a midfield that really has been an achilles heal against the good sides this year. Murphy, Judd, Carrazzo- our offensive midfilders have been ordinary. Gibbs was good early, but he is just 'another player' in our side. Gibbs has not even got close to his 3rd season in terms of SC points and is currently averaging 11% lower than his 2009 season. His SC points have slipped consistently and his output is no different to his output last year. His first game of the year has been his best, and has not even got close to those SC points since. ie. he showed us what he can do in that game, but like his whole career, he has not delivered it consistently in 2013.
At Etihad, without Pavlich, we are 4 goals closer, but we really cannot carry the passengers that we had against the Suns. Our bottom 3 players had less SuperCoach points than the Suns worst performer. That in a 7 goal win is pretty poor (The bottom 2, Rowe and Lucas, played all or a significant part of the game). Judd's decline is interesting. Last year, his average SC points dropped by 10% from the year before and this year it has dropped a further 5%. We all know that SC points are not an exact science, but I think this analysis reflects what we are all seeing from him. Three games ago, judd was superb- but in terms of SC points, it was an anomally, 15% higher than his previous best this year and 37% better than his average. To put that into persective, he had four higher scores than that game (saints) last year, 5 better games in 2011 and 7 better games in 2010. An indication that the best of Judd is far behind and we can only really expect one other 'vintage' Judd game this year.
Murphy is an interesting one. He is 20% down on his output last year, and surprisingly, he actually came back better after the Dangerfield bump (based on SC points). However, his last 2 games against GC and St Kilda last year were well down and that form (average SC) has continued into this year. Murphy has only scored SC points that matched his average last year against Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Geelong. He has scored his lowest scores of his career this season against the Saints and and Collingwood. Even worse than his first year.
Robbo is another, 15% down on last year. Ed is up about 8%, but is a defensive midfielder. Brock is down almost 20% too. So all in all, our midfielders are down by an average of 10-15%.
What this all means is that we can not rely on Judd anymore and for some reason, our other gun midfielder is struggling. We need Judd to meet his average (100 SC is still a good output), but we clearly need Murphy to up his output by 20% this week. What it also shows, is that we probably need to start introducing more offensive midfielders who are going to rack up some possessions. Bell and Graham have not collected less than 30 possessions in the last 4 games that they have played in the VFL. These are the types of players that we require now. We need our hands on the pill in the middle, not simply limiting the opposition's midfielders.
I'd be tempted to play Waite as CHB when he's available and use him as a swingman with Hendo. Let Hendo and Rowe settle in the forward line a while
I still reckon Waite has played his best football at CHB.
Waite won't be playing down back ever again. Too old for it and his body is not up for it.
Menzel is not small, so he can play that walker type role up forward. Hendo is a lock forward now. Rowe will struggle when Waite returns. I still see casbolt as part of that structure. He is a pack marking full forward and should be played that way. Waite and hendo are great on the lead and one on one but casbolt is the only one with ability to mark that bomb to full forward. Get him in and leave him there.
Rowe needs to be versatile (play a role in defence) at times to get a game until Waite retires. Watson is great in the air but is a chook with his head cut off once the ball hits the ground. he will get exposed sooner than later.
