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Re: Team selection disection

Reply #105 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Just a bit of trivia....How many games did Judd play with Cripps?...the answer surprised me.

8 by my count.

Wasn't too surprising to me. It wasn't until Judd went down that Cripps was fit and got a big go at it.
He kept breaking down before that.

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #106 –
Quote from: LP – on
If the structure is correct Kerridge will be OK, don't have him trying to hit targets, make sure he works inside and dishes off to kids like Fisher and SPS.

Word the kids up, it's time they played big boy football and self-organised on field, no more you stand next to him and go everywhere he goes!

It's time we started seeing some genuine footy smarts from some of these "talented kids"!

In other words, cut the robot crap!
Just let em be natural, have some fun, show some flair.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #107 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Just let em be natural, have some fun, show some flair.

One thing about that GTC.

As long as we aren't predictable then allowing some freedoms can be very hard to coach against! ;)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #108 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
As you can appreciate, I think we know that we are still in development mode, and one of the things we are looking for is to develop a winning attitude, as well as a winning feeling.

Irrespective, the conversation surrounding who plays when is occurring and largely it will vary depending on what our aims are.

Team balance is one.
Learning opportunities with guidance is another.

Realistically I look at it, and I can see a few "constants" that are likely to be the case for our team selection, irrespective of what value we perceive they bring to the table.

What I can see happening is that the following players will be picked most weeks unless injured, or struggling for form/fitness majorly.

Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want:

Marc Murphy
Kade Simpson
Matthew Kreuzer
Ed Curnow
Dale Thomas
Levi Casboult
Matthew Wright

These guys are going to play pretty much when they are available and even if we think they are struggling.  They are there not to perform well themselves, but play their role to the best of their ability and ensure that the team is playing the right way, and that other blokes are playing their allotted roles or learning to play them properly.  These guys are only going to exclude themselves from selection if they are struggling big time.


The next tier:

Jack Silvagni
SPS
Matthew Kennedy
Patrick Cripps
Harry McKay
Darcy Lang
Lachie Plowman
Jarrod Garlett
Caleb Marchbank
Jacob Weitering
Zac Fisher
David Cunningham
Charlie Curnow
Tom Williamson
Jarrod Pickett
Ciaran Byrne


These guys are no longer "learning" to play football.  Some are learning to compete, or learning roles, and some weeks they will benefit from dropping down to VFL level to polish up something or work on their leadership ability, but you will find that these guys are going to be 15-23 gamers for the year (some more likely to play more than others).

The next Tier:

Sam Kerridge
Jed Lamb
Liam Jones
Sam Rowe
Aaron Mullett
Cam O'Shea
Matthew Lobbe
Nick Graham
Andrew Phillips
Matt Shaw
Alex Silvagni

This group are role/depth players who could surprise and play every week but are more likely to be filling in the gaps for team balance that we cant quite get right from the aforementioned.  I expect some to play frequently but most of them will be doing well to get 10+ AFL games for the year and will be the VFL equivalent of what the first tier I wrote down do for our VFL team.

The Next Tier:
Paddy Dow
Lochie O'Brien
Tom De Koning
Angus Schumacher
Harrison Macreadie
Cameron Poulson
Pat Kerr

Youngsters that are still firmly on their L plates and looking to find their feet at this level, or learn roles.  Some might emerge instantly and play like seasoned pros (looking at Paddy Dow mainly or Cam Poulson hopefully) but realistically if they get anywhere near 10 games for the year, they will be deemed a roaring success.  (Projected anywhere from 0-10 games with anything else being an outlier).

This is where I see our list for 2018.  This is likely to be how our MC select our team for round 1, and will contain a few but not many surprises, mainly regarding team balance and opposition match ups, but anticipate that some are going to be ahead of others in the pecking order simply because we need them to be.  I expect we will see the 3-4 year draftees playing pretty much every week unless their form is putrid (and even then we might persist because there is little they can benefit from at VFL level).




So I figured post round 9 is a good time to revisit this particular thread.

We all have our questions as to why things are the way they are, and the answers are wide and varied but ultimately, the way I broke up these groups, and forecasted how many games they SHOULD play, based on where our list is at, paints the picture better than any other explanation of why we have been so poor in season 2018.

Effectively, if you look above I have listed a fairly best case scenario regarding our list, in terms of what players bring what effort and class every week and it really does tell the story of where we are at, and why we are performing so poorly.

Of the first tier: Simpson, Thomas and Wright have been the only players to play every game and the absence of the rest has been sorely missed, irrespective of how well we have covered them at times. 

Of our second tier:  Unfortunately, Cripps, Fisher, SPS and Plowman are the only ever present players from this tier and most of this tier have shown patchy form, or ability to be on the park.  Cripps, Fisher and Charlie are the only 3 from this tier that have really had what can be called good form.  The rest have come in and out, played the odd stinker, or generally haven't been cited. 

Of our third tier:  Liam Jones and Aaron Mullet are the only ever present options and we would have been doing well if the rest of these guys had shown good form when they were playing (Rowe is probably the only other player from this tier to have been a good contributer most of the time).  The rest have been similarly patchy.

Our fourth tier:  Paddy Dow is playing more footy than I was expecting/hoping he needed to, and Lachie O Brien is ahead of schedule and done ok.

What the above shows, is why we are miles off the pace of a competitive footy side, and the fact that we have managed a win, is almost a miracle.  We have had the perfect storm of the players we needed to rely on not performing this year.  We needed to have our best 22 made up of our first 2 tiers of players, with sprinklings of the others for team balance, and the one week we got that against Essendon, we had a win.

Unfortunately, circumstances have conspired to prevent us from picking the top tier altogether, which was going to be the key to us doing any damage on the scoreboard this season.

Again, I expect us to be better after the bye, and frankly Gold Coast and Western bulldogs aside, it might actually work out better for us to fare better with blokes getting on the park in the second half of the year as we have played a fairly tough schedule until now.  Given whom we have faced, we could and should do much better in the second half of the season.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #109 –
Jack Darling is just hitting his straps. Been in the system for 7 years, is 25 years old 191 cm 95 kg and played 160 games. Had many lean years but WCE have stuck with him.

Patrick Kerr is 19, 194 cm 94 kg. 1 game. Has strong hands and kicks straight.

These guys take time........IF you have the patience.

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #110 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
Jack Darling is just hitting his straps. Been in the system for 7 years, is 25 years old 191 cm 95 kg and played 160 games. Had many lean years but WCE have stuck with him.

Patrick Kerr is 19, 194 cm 94 kg. 1 game. Has strong hands and kicks straight.

These guys take time........IF you have the patience.

In a crap game Kerr looked much more like a forward than McKay.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #111 –
Did any one else feel that there were times on the weekend where Kerr made leads or got into good positions only to be ignored.
I couldn't be a hundred percent sure but I thought on at least two occasions that he was a good option but players went elsewhere.

Of course that's watching on TV so you only get a limited overview.

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #112 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Did any one else feel that there were times on the weekend where Kerr made leads or got into good positions only to be ignored.
I couldn't be a hundred percent sure but I thought on at least two occasions that he was a good option but players went elsewhere.

Of course that's watching on TV so you only get a limited overview.

Yep, sure did!!

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #113 –
Quote from: Lods – on
Did any one else feel that there were times on the weekend where Kerr made leads or got into good positions only to be ignored.
I couldn't be a hundred percent sure but I thought on at least two occasions that he was a good option but players went elsewhere.

Of course that's watching on TV so you only get a limited overview.

Yeeeerrp, we burnt him more than once.

Some talk about him making leads to nowhere at the wrong time, but he'll do that anyway because he is a natural KPF that makes space for team-mates and draws defenders, his work rate stands out. The Dees had already pegged him as the main lead up target halfway through the 1st Qtr.

Often Kerr comes good late, he seems to take time to work into the game, I think his best footy comes in the 2nd half, but of course you have to actually get the footy into F50 for him to have any chance! :o

On a side note, I got the feeling at the VFL that he might not be the most well liked player on the list, not sure why, but his connections to team-mates came across as a bit cold. I suppose if that is true we will Robbo him! ::)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #114 –



So I thought I would revisit this on the back end of the season, because there are quite a few dissapointed with how things wound up, and I thought it would be beneficial to highlight, why 2018 became the car crash that it ended up:

Tier 1 Mature agers, team leaders, onfield coaches, call them whatever you want.  For our best possible outcome, we needed these guys not only to play each and every week, but to be at their very best in the process.  We got very different results:

Marc Murphy - 13 games for the season and never really got going either.  Might have had one or two standout games. Struggled for Fitness AND form. 
Kade Simpson - 21 games at a fairly high standard.  Showing signs that the game is starting to go by him.
Matthew Kreuzer - 12 games, of which almost half were played under duress, if he ran out the game at all but still contributed well (which says a bit about our overall team).
Ed Curnow - 21 Games for the season.  After the buy Ed struggled, and without knowing any different, Id suggest he played either under duress or carrying too heavy a load which really effected his ability to contribute in the backend of the season.
Dale Thomas  - 20 games.  So so disposal, but played very high standard footy for the most part with only a few errors in the process.
Levi Casboult  - 10 games.  We really needed Levi at full capacity this season particularly with all our other ruckmen going down throughout the season.
Matthew Wright - 21 games.  Another one who appears to have carried too big a load and had a poor end to the year.
Sam Docherty - Never fired a shot.

We need new blood in this group.  If we are relying heavily on this group (as a whole) next season, we are likely to be back in the bottom 4 again.

Tier 2

The Future and hopefully the present (we got far too little output from this group with the exception of Cripps, Fisher and Charlie:

Jack Silvagni - 15 Games.  Firmly still on his L plates with no major tricks added to his bow.  Silvagni is a competitor, but thats where it ends for me as he simply doesnt get involved enough.
SPS - 22 Games.  Improved towards the back end of the year, and is still learning.  Not the first to suffer from second year blues, and wont be the last.
Matthew Kennedy - 12 games.  Another one that never really got going until late, and then broke down completely.
Patrick Cripps - 22.  There are not enough superlatives for Cripps.  Build a statue to him from now for services rendered.
Harry McKay - 13 games.  Probably about what we expected from young Harry.  Ironically, he gave us less goals for much better overall contribution in the back end of the season than he did where he was a pure finisher early.  Hopefully he picks up where he left off next season.
Darcy Lang - 11 games.  An interupted start, and then a yo yo ing performance really means its hard to take anything from his season.
Lachie Plowman - 13 games.  Got stitched up a lot early on and was another one that struggled with form and fitness from the outside looking in.
Jarrod Garlett - 11 games.  An interupted start, and a really poor end to the season rumoured to be hampered by injury, but the question marks over his desire are still there which is a worry.
Caleb Marchbank - 12 games.  I had him as probably our best defender against the Tigers in round 1.  He was marking everything coming in and justifed his trade.  Unfortunately he was another that broke down and then struggled to get going again until late in the year.
Jacob Weitering - 14 games.  Struggled early, got dropped, came back in, and played pretty well until he hurt himself again and then went back to the sort of up and down performances.
Zac Fisher - 17 - Fisher was arguably the 3rd biggest positive this year.  The unfortunate broken leg injury against Hawthorn ended what was a really strong season for Fisher.
David Cunningham.  5 games.  Was really hoping for Cunners to help fill in the holes in our midfield.  Unfortunately he never got going and then was ruled out for the year.
Charlie Curnow - 20 games.  Faded a little later in the year, but he is a jet.  If not for him Cripps, and Fisher, this season would have yielded almost 0 positives.
Tom Williamson - Never fired a shot.
Jarrod Pickett - 7 games.  Cruelled by injury but given it was effectively a hand injury, I cannot comprehend how he appeared to be in such poor physical shape and never showed us the speed we know he has in spades.  That worries me although hes had a really rotten run with injury so it might be a belief issue rather than poor application (hopefully).
Ciaran Byrne - 7 games.  Another one that failed to get going, got hurt, missed most of the season, and then came in and started to show what we know and love about him.

We needed far more consistency from this group as a whole, which speaks for why we won 2 games for the year and finished dead last, and really paints the picture of why we struggled so badly.  We had may 3 of these players up and running for most of the season at the same time and the rest were variable in fitness, form or both.


The 3rd Tier (hopefully depth, or spare parts players):

Sam Kerridge - 10 games.  Considering the injury list above, its an indictment on him that he only got 10 games.
Jed Lamb - 18 games.  Was a real spare parts player for us this season and should be rewarded if possible as he has been a square peg in a round hole and doing quite well.
Liam Jones - 17 games.  Im calling  him the enigma.  He was a mix of mostly good, some bad, and some really ugly play.  Needs to play the percentages better I think and he will improve a lot as he is an all or nothing defender at the moment.
Sam Rowe - 17 games.  Thankfully returned from his knee injury in good nick, and contributed for most of the year.
Aaron Mullett  - 13 games.  Delisted.  Nothing to say here.  Failed to take his opportunity.
Cam O'Shea - 11 games.  Delisted.  At least he tried, he's just not quite up to it, and given his approach to his footy, I hope he gets another go elsewhere.
Matthew Lobbe - 6 games.  We really could have used more from him, as he battled admirably after returning from significant injury, and was one of the few on this list, who actually could improve next season.
Nick Graham - 10 games.  Graham is a fairly limited footballer and has been very much a yo yo player for us, and appears to keep trying hes just limited.
Andrew Phillips - 5 games.  Cruelled by injury again.  His good was really good but hes been on the list for 3 years, and played 22 games for us, and only 6 in the last two years.  Hes currently a list clogger until he can get his body right.
Matt Shaw - 2 games, injured most of the year.  Delisted.
Alex Silvagni - Retired after playing 0 games. 

Not a lot of positives here.  Most of them have shown us their best footy with real limited scope for improvement out of any of them (ruckmen aside). 

The 4th tier (L Platers, getting a feel for being a pro footballer):

Paddy Dow - 20 games.  A real positive in an otherwise poor year.  Might go straight from L plates to walk up starter at this stage, as he is showing us some really good signs.
Lochie O'Brien - 18 games.  Probably played more due to the above list of hampered players, but showed some positives.  Still question marks, but he's done well for a 1st year player of his size and shape.
Tom De Koning - 2 games.  Played ahead of schedule.  Was really excited watching him in the VFL, and happy for him to get an opportunity, but it was way ahead of time and speaks for why we struggled so badly.
Angus Schumacher - 0 games.  Some good VFL form.  Should have got a run against the Bulldogs, but I think we got caught trying to win the game, and paid for it.
Harrison Macreadie - 0 games.  Never fired a shot.
Cameron Polson - 12 games.  Probably got given games when he didnt warrant selection, but really started to show his worth later in the year.  Has a bit of Jack Silvagni's issue of only really having being a competitior and the right attitude as his major positives, as he is small, not quick, doesnt get a lot of it.  Really needs to kick on next year as he got an extension and we are investing heavily.
Pat Kerr - 4 games.  Looked comfortable at the level, but he's a half a game player at this stage.  Needs to kick on next year, as he is a big target who likes to throw his weight around.
Kim Lebois - gone without firing a shot.  Has been unlucky with injury from what I have seen.



Reading this list, you really get a picture for why we struggled so badly.  Consistency, fitness, form all non existant.  We were relying too heavily on the sort of players we were hoping not to (L Platers, our mature agers gave us too little, our depth players gave us too little, and even our future tier 1 players, didnt play enough consistent footy this season!!).
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson
 

Re: Team selection disection

Reply #115 –
I have a similar list but I have Jones in my Tier 1, I have Dow & O'Brien in my Tier 2 and I have Casboult in my Tier 3.