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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1200 –
The mass state of confusion with changing policy on the run is one reason I'd never allow Andrews that level of control.  Or anyone else.  Enough of the stuff ups

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1201 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on

Wrong in one critical aspect Thry. And I'll try and post the chart (a jpg)! Any hints?

Saying the numbers were 'out of control' is simply emotional rhetoric.

The actual (and modelled) effective reproduction rate (DHHS data) had already peaked and was heading south before even Stage 3 restrictions were reintroduced.

And, in fact, that number was comfortably below the 'magic' 1.0 mark (around 27 July) WELL BEFORE Stage 4 restrictions. Let alone allowing any lag time for 'effect'.

Fact. And essentially confirmed by third party modelling.

So, the only reason for doing it was political.

As to the efficacy of lockdowns and other NPIs - the latest study certainly makes one's eyebrows rise!

https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-and-mask-mandates-do-not-lead-to-reduced-covid-transmission-rates-or-deaths-new-study-suggests/

No offense, FB77, but the AIER is not as unbiased or as objective as it proports... just another Libertarian organisation and very guilty of cherry picking data to fit/promote its agendas and advocacies. I believe that sticking to data and opinion from medical experts remains the path to take.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1202 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
I would have thought that now isn't the time to go doing an investigation into what went wrong.

Identify the shortfalls.  Fix them, and then worry about who stuffed up once there is no pandemic to worry about.


I actually believe we can do both - and should. The information garnered during an investigation can have a huge and beneficial impact on what is being done at present. If we got another outbreak in a particular location, due to learning about certain security organisations through investigations, we would choose the location to be 'guarded' by those better qualified... and so on.

My question remains from weeks ago... why didn't Dan leap on the 2nd outbreak well before he did, like he did on the 1st outbreak?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1203 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
No offense, FB77, but the AIER is not as unbiased or as objective as it proports... just another Libertarian organisation and very guilty of cherry picking data to fit/promote its agendas and advocacies. I believe that sticking to data and opinion from medical experts remains the path to take.

All good, I'm well aware of the heritage of AIER Baggers!

If you have some scientific evidence that supports lockdowns etc, feel free.

You want more on the anti lock down side?

https://t.co/vSPLOWSeKO?amp=1

ps who can tell me how to upload an image?
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1204 –
It's a shame that after the virus is sorted, we can't turn our attention to the ICE industry that causes daily damage to our society...
"...that's the thing about opinion - you don't have to know anything to have one..."  Andre Agassi commenting on Pat Cash 2004
"...the less you know - the more you believe..." - Bono 2006

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1205 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
All good, I'm well aware of the heritage of AIER Baggers!

If you have some scientific evidence that supports lockdowns etc, feel free.

You want more on the anti lock down side?

https://t.co/vSPLOWSeKO?amp=1

ps who can tell me how to upload an image?

Go to preview mode and you can drag  an image in the panel below where you type
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1206 –
A picture tells 1000 words ()if the upload has worked!)
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1207 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
A picture tells 1000 words ()if the upload has worked!)
So does that say that the daily cases spike lags the Reff spike by a month or so? Its weird because the first Reff spike didnt correlate to daily cases spikes but I guess testing wasnt occuring so it hard to deduce what that says. Daily tests would be good overlayed on that.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1208 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
So does that say that the daily cases spike lags the Reff spike by a month or so? Its weird because the first Reff spike didnt correlate to daily cases spikes but I guess testing wasnt occuring so it hard to deduce what that says. Daily tests would be good overlayed on that.
That's the right train of thought, yes there is a lag and it's also function of testing because when you test someone you do not really know what stage of infection or contagiousness that they are at.

You will recall that the government recalled a bunch of dodgy ineffective tests around May June and banned them from import, which saw a shortage of tests kits which was rectified by the end of June early July.

Also, the Re effective reproduction rate is a measure of the rate of infection with respect to transmission, immunity, vaccination and all other mitigation measures like masks, quarantine and isolation.

The main raw measure is R0 which is the basic infection rate, that has barely changed in many months now. Readers have to be careful about it's reporting because in reality the virus has mutated and there are now many strains with varying levels of transmission, averages can be from a wide spread of contagious levels.

Another word of warning about language, all contagious diseases are infectious, but not all infectious diseases are contagious. Technically this difference is often manipulated by some segments of social media and political spectrum to make things look how they want them to look.

It's typical for the R0 to drop through the coarse of an infection, and it can mean very little about how contagious something is and more about the number of tests and other factors like natural immunity levels which are always higher than zero!

The real concern in the linked DHHS model would be the rising green bars, and why that was happening while Re dropped!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1209 –
Quote from: LP – on
It's typical for the R0 to drop through the coarse of an infection, and it can mean very little about how contagious something is and more about the number of tests.

Isn't that a factor of herd immunity?

Less people who can get it means less people will get it.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1210 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Isn't that a factor of herd immunity?

Less people who can get it means less people will get it.
R0 is the raw number with respect to natural immunity. If you put a hundred thousand people who had never been exposed to the virus into The G and dusted them with virus. It generally stabilises at some value like Influenza. It often starts high, presumably because there are a large number of tests for small number of infected.

Re would take into account herd immunity, if you put a hundred thousand into The G some of which had been exposed and developed an immune response, and dusted them again! It diminishes as more immunity is found in the community and more mitigation steps are taken.

If a 100% effective vaccine is invented, Re would go to zero, but R0 would stay some value because it's primarily a measure of transmission. A vaccine doesn't stop you being infected by a virus, it stops the virus you get infected with from doing you too much harm by priming the body's own defence system. Think of Re as the number we work towards for any given R0.

On websites and media there is lots of cross pollination between R0 and other figures like Re, some of it by accident some of it not! I'm sure I'm even guilty myself of generalising to the term R0, but once you see Re then you need to become more careful about the discussion because it is becoming specific to a frame of reference.

There was a good program on ABC national that put all this into lay terms a couple of months back. Much better at explaining it than myself, if I find it I'll post a link. When I sit listening to colleagues discuss this, as it has become the lunchtime topic of rigor, the jargon from the technical specialists is almost not navigable but they use it for brevity.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1211 –
It's pretty clear Dopey and his gang dropped the ball on testing and tracing for a time....no surprises there.

Now that our resident Norman Swan has gone some way to explaining the meaning of Ro and the effective rate, Re, what does it all mean?

First, indeed, Re is a subset of the Ro number - taking into account the level of susceptibility in the population - and, as we've seen in the States, we aren't necessarily one homogeneous population. Which also goes a large way to offering an explanation as to why herd immunity appears to be reached at much lower population infection rates than originally estimated.

But back on point. What is clear is that, by definition, the effective rate, Re, is a leading indicator of where the bug is going - getting it under 1.0 is the goal. If the rate of secondary infection is less than 1 to 1, it must peter out.

What stupefies me is that when they chose to reimpose Stage 3 restrictions over Melbourne, the Re had been trending consistently south toward zero (so why do it?) and there is NOTHING (as evidenced by the slope ie the rate of change of the Re line) to suggest the NPI measures (lock down, masks etc.) hastened speed of decline.

And even to be exceedingly generous, let's ignore the Stage 3 stuff.

The actual Re (and the modelled Re too) fell below 1.0 well over a week before our Chairman went for these INSANE Stage 4 measures!

Justification?

None.

Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1212 –
A Virologist on the ABC last night suggested that the CoVid19 virus in structure is weakening to what it was back at the start.
Growths rate in the lab is still the same but it isnt attacking good cells the way it was and that is a good chance it will become weaker and turn on itself and thats how the virus will be eradicated maybe even before a decent vaccine is available.
There are reports of re-infection in people even months later so the antibodies either dont remain or their are new/changed strains which isnt going to make finding a vaccine any easier.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1213 –
@Fly....
The reason for going to stage 4 was not because it was running away, but because the decline was going too slowly that it would extend stage 3 for longer than required.

Stage 4 was planned so that stage 3 would be required for less time than had stage 4 not been implemented at all.

So that leads us to the other question? Why no decline since masks and stage 4??

At a guess....its still too soon to tell.
At another guess....stage 4 was not a huge step up compated from stage 2 -> stage 3.
And a final guess.....people simply are not buying into it anymore. The backlash over this has been far in excess to anything i predicted. The anti-maskers, anti-government, COVID conspirators etc are growing in numbers and its ruining it for everyone.

So....how much of this is Dans fault? 
SFA

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1214 –
@LP....
So why is it typical for R0 to drop? Surely its a constant?