Jim Park Analysis 2020

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Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #15 – September 12, 2020, 11:22:30 am

2020 Rd 15:    Carlton vs GWS
This is the game where we threw away our finals’ opportunity. Nichevo. We will be better.

Trends:
[1]   This week only 11 people voted, something of a disappointment. This is less than the 14 for the same game last year and the 12 from the previous game. But considering the general disappointment with the result, I can understand the lack of will. It is much harder to care after such a disappointing loss.

[2]   The number of votes is similar to last week’s game against Collingwood. That is to be expected, although we played better for longer against GWS.

[3]   12 players managed a mention this week. This is one down from last week, but still a considerable improvement over our efforts in recent years. At our nadir, we struggled to get 10 players worth a mention. It goes to show that we are a more even team in this particular iteration. That bodes well for the future.

[4]   Only 3 players garnered more than 100 votes this week, with 2 dominant performances. This has not been our norm this year.

[5]   The rating this was 7.70, just a little higher than last week. This represents a C-. We have only had 2 ratings this year considerably less than this, which also shows that we are in games for longer periods. A promising sign for 2021.

[6]   Jacob Weitering continued his great form this year with a 3rd BOG. He has been the model of consistency this season. Similarly, Sam Walsh and Ed Curnow, who were 2nd and 3rd respectively. Walsh’s form of late has been brilliant. Ed continues on his most consistent of seasons.

[7]   Patrick Cripps continues to show his relatively ordinary form. He has not had a BOG since Round 1 and has only 7 top 5 finishes. If we needed any evidence that he has been down this season … I think Crippa will be back to his best next year, with normal rounds of normal length and him being 100% fit and not having to worry about not supporting his girlfriend.

Votes:
Weitering, Jacob 360
Walsh, Sam 297
Curnow, Edward 108
Murphy, Marc 94
Docherty, Sam 73
Jones, Liam 59
Pittonet, Marc 45
McKay, Harrison 38
Martin, Jack 35
Williamson, Tom 31
Setterfield, Will 7
Polson, Cameron 3

Progressive Votes:
2227 - Weitering, Jacob (0)
1695 - Walsh, Sam (0)
1623 - Curnow, Edward (0)
1362 - Cripps, Patrick (0)
1229 - Martin, Jack (0)
1015 - Setterfield, Will (0)
899 - Jones, Liam (0)
897 - Docherty, Sam (0)
853 - Casboult, Levi (0)
733 - Pittonet, Marc (0)
694 - Murphy, Marc (0)
583 - Kennedy, Matthew (0)
557 - Gibbons, Michael (0)
454 - Betts, Eddie (0)
418 - Plowman, Lachlan (0)
409 - Cuningham, David (0)
369 - Fisher, Zac (0)
314 - McKay, Harrison (0)
230 - Petrevski - Seton, Sam (0)
228 - Simpson, Kade (0)
149 - Newnes, Jack (0)
86 - Williamson, Tom (0)
80 - McGovern, Mitchell (0)
79 - de Koning, Tom (0)
39 - Cottrell, Matthew (0)
24 - Silvagni, Jack (0)
7 - Polson, Cameron (0)
6 - Philp, Sam (0)

At this point Jacob Weitering has probably a large enough lead to win this year's Award. It isn't impossible to catch him, but he is playing very consistently.
Sam Walsh has come up to take 2nd spot from Ed Curnow.
From 2nd to 6th is still close.

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #16 – September 19, 2020, 03:07:03 pm

2020 Rd 16:    Carlton vs Sydney
A win, and it could be our last for the year. We were hopeless early, but brilliant after about halfway through the 2nd term.

Trends:
[1]   17 people voted for this game, a very good turnout. The trend this year is about 17 voters for a win and about 12 for a loss. It has been a lot more consistent this year. This time last year there were 16 voters, while there were 11 last week. I think the previous round really hurt.

[2]   The total number of votes is up comfortably this week, but not as much as would normally expected. Our expectations have changed somewhat. Hopefully our expectations can remain high, because the performances reflect it.

[3]   A remarkable 19 players managed a mention this week! I cannot remember a spread of votes quite like it, although we have had a couple of performances similar at times this year. For all that can be said about Carlton players this season, we have been a relatively even side. Pity we haven’t had a full list once all year! It also suggests that we haven't been a 4 quarter side very often either.

[4]   5 players managed 100 or more votes, which is also becoming a common occurrence. 2 of those managed more than 200 votes.

[5]   The rating, 8.53, is somewhat down for a win in recent times. It appears we do expect to win sometimes now. Wish it was every week! 8.53 represents between a C+ and B-.

[6]   Sam Walsh managed his 4th BOG for the season. Kane Cornes, have you noticed yet? (What an idiot!) Since Rd 7 (his first BOG for the year), there has been only 1 game where he has been in our top 5 players.

[7]   Jacob Weitering continues to show his excellent form this year with yet another top 10 finish. There have only been 2 games where he was not in the top 10. He has 9 performances in the top 5.

Votes:
Walsh, Sam 366
Petrevski - Seton, Sam 211
de Koning, Tom 156
Weitering, Jacob 146
Plowman, Lachlan 120
Cripps, Patrick 95
Setterfield, Will 35
Curnow, Edward 30
Newnes, Jack 30
Simpson, Kade 25
Cottrell, Matthew 13
Casboult, Levi 10
Murphy, Marc 10
Jones, Liam 8
Martin, Jack 5
Docherty, Sam 5
Fisher, Zac 5
McKay, Harrison 5
Williamson, Tom 5

Progressive Voting:
2372 - Weitering, Jacob (0)
2061 - Walsh, Sam (0)
1653 - Curnow, Edward (0)
1457 - Cripps, Patrick (0)
1234 - Martin, Jack (0)
1050 - Setterfield, Will (0)
907 - Jones, Liam (0)
902 - Docherty, Sam (0)
863 - Casboult, Levi (0)
733 - Pittonet, Marc (0)
704 - Murphy, Marc (0)
583 - Kennedy, Matthew (0)
557 - Gibbons, Michael (0)
539 - Plowman, Lachlan (0)
454 - Betts, Eddie (0)
441 - Petrevski - Seton, Sam (0)
409 - Cuningham, David (0)
374 - Fisher, Zac (0)
319 - McKay, Harrison (0)
253 - Simpson, Kade (0)
235 - de Koning, Tom (0)
179 - Newnes, Jack (0)
91 - Williamson, Tom (0)
80 - McGovern, Mitchell (0)
52 - Cottrell, Matthew (0)
24 - Silvagni, Jack (0)
7 - Polson, Cameron (0)
6 - Philp, Sam (0)

It has become a race in two, with 2 rounds to go. Walsh is the only one who may catch Weitering. If we lose, Weitering is likely to get votes: he has only been beaten once this year.

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #17 – September 22, 2020, 11:37:40 am

AFL 2020 Rd 17:   Carlton vs Adelaide
This was our most disappointing loss for the year, losing to the wooden spooners. Unfortunately, they turned up and we didn’t.

Trends:
[1]   The voters thought this was our worst game for the year. I’m not so sure it was, but the weighting, 5.38, was the worst by some margin. That represents an F+. We have panned no other game like this one.

[2]   13 people voted this week, a slight improvement on our recent losses. It is down from 17 last week and 16 from the corresponding game last year. Some people wanted to vent, and fair enough too.

[3]   With such a rating, it is no surprise that the total number of votes this week is more than 100 fewer than our previous worst. Dissatisfaction is dissatisfaction.

[4]   13 players managed a mention this week, which is still decent. Alas, not many garnered the votes they required to substantially alter the Progressive Voting.

[5]   Only 3 players managed more than 100 votes, also well down on our norm. And of those, there was no outstanding, Judd-like score.

[6]   Jacob Weitering managed his 4th BOG for the season. He has had a brilliant year. H managed his first 2nd spot for the season, followed by Sam Walsh, who had another strong performance. It is no surprise that Walsh and Weitering are where they are on the Voting lists.

Votes:
Weitering, Jacob 220
McKay, Harrison 182
Walsh, Sam 120
Simpson, Kade 99
Setterfield, Will 46
de Koning, Tom 35
Jones, Liam 33
Curnow, Edward 27
Gibbons, Michael 21
Cripps, Patrick 8
Casboult, Levi 6
Plowman, Lachlan 6
Newnes, Jack 4

Progressive Voting:
2592 - Weitering, Jacob (0)
2182 - Walsh, Sam (0)
1680 - Curnow, Edward (0)
1466 - Cripps, Patrick (0)
1234 - Martin, Jack (0)
1096 - Setterfield, Will (0)
940 - Jones, Liam (0)
902 - Docherty, Sam (0)
870 - Casboult, Levi (0)
733 - Pittonet, Marc (0)
704 - Murphy, Marc (0)
583 - Kennedy, Matthew (0)
577 - Gibbons, Michael (0)
545 - Plowman, Lachlan (0)
502 - McKay, Harrison (0)
454 - Betts, Eddie (0)
441 - Petrevski - Seton, Sam (0)
409 - Cuningham, David (0)
374 - Fisher, Zac (0)
352 - Simpson, Kade (0)
270 - de Koning, Tom (0)
183 - Newnes, Jack (0)
91 - Williamson, Tom (0)
80 - McGovern, Mitchell (0)
52 - Cottrell, Matthew (0)
24 - Silvagni, Jack (0)
7 - Polson, Cameron (0)
6 - Philp, Sam (0)

With a lead of 400, Jacob Weitering has probably won the award this year. However, Sam Walsh is in position to overtake, if he played well enough in the final round.

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #18 – September 22, 2020, 01:18:13 pm

Hard to believe Cripps is top 4!

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #19 – September 22, 2020, 03:15:55 pm

Quote from: flyboy77 – on September 22, 2020, 01:18:13 pm

Hard to believe Cripps is top 4!

It is, a bit, but Crippa is still Crippa: he may not be in good form, but he still gets possessions and clearances and tackles. He isn't a great chaser: he hasn't the speed to make up gaps, but he is still in out top few tackle makers.
It is rare for him not to get some votes, even though his top 4 finishes have been few.

The problem with the players directly beneath is inconsistency (Martin) or that, like Cripps, they usually gather small numbers of votes (Jones and Docherty). We have a very even central bunch, but few of them have standout games.

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #20 – October 02, 2020, 11:49:09 am

Here we go, the Ultimate round of 2020.
That disappoints me, as we could so easily have gone into September in a much bigger way, but ...

Carlton vs Brisbane: Simmo's last game and yet another loss.

Trends:
[1]   We managed 15 voters for the final round, including a couple who we haven’t seen for a while. That is probably our best for the year for a loss.

[2]   With a rating of 7.71, we actually rated this game. We had one patch where Brisbane got on got. From that point we kept winding their lead back but couldn’t finish the job. Sounds like a microcosm of this year. 7.71 is a little better than a C-.

[3]   The total number of votes this week is over 350 better than last week. It does tell us a lot about our expectations.

[4]   We had 3 players get more than 100 votes this week, not unusual for a loss. We tend to have 5 when we win. The results were well spaced, with a gap of around 100 votes between 1st and 2nd, and between 2nd and 3rd.

[5]   13 players rated a mention this week, continuing the year’s trend of having a lot of contributions, but few dominations. In many ways this has been a very even year.

[6]   Sam Walsh managed his 4th BOG for the season. Since Rd 7 he has had only 1 week where he has not been in the top 4 vote getters. Quite an achievement for a young man. Only Weitering has 4 BOG’s this season otherwise.

Votes:
Walsh, Sam 357
Plowman, Lachlan 234
McKay, Harrison 154
Jones, Liam 98
Williamson, Tom 75
Simpson, Kade 67
Martin, Jack 59
Kennedy, Matthew 51
Pittonet, Marc 28
Petrevski - Seton, Sam 23
Curnow, Edward 8
Weitering, Jacob 3
Cripps, Patrick 3

Progressive voting:
2594 - Weitering, Jacob (0)
2539 - Walsh, Sam (0)
1685 - Curnow, Edward (0)
1468 - Cripps, Patrick (0)
1293 - Martin, Jack (0)
1096 - Setterfield, Will (0)
1038 - Jones, Liam (0)
902 - Docherty, Sam (0)
870 - Casboult, Levi (0)
779 - Plowman, Lachlan (0)
761 - Pittonet, Marc (0)
704 - Murphy, Marc (0)
656 - McKay, Harrison (0)
634 - Kennedy, Matthew (0)
577 - Gibbons, Michael (0)
464 - Petrevski - Seton, Sam (0)
454 - Betts, Eddie (0)
419 - Simpson, Kade (0)
409 - Cuningham, David (0)
374 - Fisher, Zac (0)
270 - de Koning, Tom (0)
183 - Newnes, Jack (0)
166 - Williamson, Tom (0)
80 - McGovern, Mitchell (0)
52 - Cottrell, Matthew (0)
24 - Silvagni, Jack (0)
7 - Polson, Cameron (0)
6 - Philp, Sam (0)

Re: Jim Park Analysis 2020

Reply #21 – October 02, 2020, 11:55:31 am

2020 Jim Park Award:

Final Placings:
2594 - Weitering, Jacob (0)
2539 - Walsh, Sam (0)
1685 - Curnow, Edward (0)
1468 - Cripps, Patrick (0)
1293 - Martin, Jack (0)
1096 - Setterfield, Will (0)
1038 - Jones, Liam (0)
902 - Docherty, Sam (0)
870 - Casboult, Levi (0)
779 - Plowman, Lachlan (0)
761 - Pittonet, Marc (0)
704 - Murphy, Marc (0)
656 - McKay, Harrison (0)
634 - Kennedy, Matthew (0)
577 - Gibbons, Michael (0)
464 - Petrevski - Seton, Sam (0)
454 - Betts, Eddie (0)
419 - Simpson, Kade (0)
409 - Cuningham, David (0)
374 - Fisher, Zac (0)
270 - de Koning, Tom (0)
183 - Newnes, Jack (0)
166 - Williamson, Tom (0)
80 - McGovern, Mitchell (0)
52 - Cottrell, Matthew (0)
24 - Silvagni, Jack (0)
7 - Polson, Cameron (0)
6 - Philp, Sam (0)

Congratulations to Jacob Weitering on winning the Jim Park Award for 2020!
[1] Jacob had a very consistent season, with 4 BOG's and only 3 games outside the top 10 vote getters. He deserved the AA guernsey he was robbed of, as he was the dominant key defender of the year in the AFL.

[2] Congratulations to Sam Walsh, who managed 2nd place, only 55 votes behind. Sam started slowly, but was brilliant from about Rd 7. He also managed 4 BOG's.

[3] Congratulations to Ed Curnow, on 3rd place. Ed also had a very consistent season, but managed only 1 BOG.

More analysis to come.