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Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #795 –
Look at AEMO announcement today, just to replace the coal on the announced schedule, we basically need fivefold or tenfold increases in every alternative over the next 10 to 20 years, including gas, hydro, solar, wind, battery, (Actually battery they state a 20x more investment is required.)

Then they go on to claim it's still $120B of investment needed, what a joke, they are surely taking the piss because the public won't do the basic math. The $120B might be the starting figure, but it's going to be many times that, maybe $360B will get the job done, $120B will just be the deposit.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #796 –
Quote from: LP – on
Look at AEMO announcement today, just to replace the coal on the announced schedule, we basically need fivefold or tenfold increases in every alternative over the next 10 to 20 years, including gas, hydro, solar, wind, battery, (Actually battery they state a 20x more investment is required.)

Then they go on to claim it's still $120B of investment needed, what a joke, they are surely taking the piss because people won't do the basic math. The $120B might be the starting figure, but it's going to be many times that, maybe $360B will get the job done, $120B will just be the deposit.
A footnote to that plan...: This $122 billion value includes transmission augmentation, utility-scale generation and storage capex, and does not include the cost of commissioned, committed or anticipated projects, consumer energy resources, distribution network upgrades.
Augmentation means to add to what we have....thats not what the Gencost document suggests in terms of transmission line planning, it was upgrading the old/new 220kv lines rated for higher temperatures to carry more load and a seperate 500kv System connecting to the NSW system....those towers are higher than what we have now and the easements larger....who is paying for all that?

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #797 –
The Committed part is rubbery, it's the Chairperson, CEO, CFO and politicians publicly claiming, "We'll build $10B of renewable over the next decade" all hot air to attract investments from the Insurance and Superannuation funds that can put "Going Green" on the brochures!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #798 –
Sabine as usual cuts through the bullsh1t!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EsBiC9HjyQ
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #799 –
Some interesting new research suggests the climate carbon cycle models aren't quite right.

It appears plants take in more carbon than previously understood by existing models, as much as 30% more, but they also release more of that carbon than expected, the mechanism is not yet clear. It doesn't change much, as the increased uptake is almost balanced by the increased release, but it probably means there will be significant revisions to many climate models, as there are extra steps in the cycle affecting rates of change and duration.

It also suggests some of the modern R&D into GM crops could turn out to be a very valuable avenue to meeting net zero carbon, and yield increases in grass and grain crops are basically a direct measure of the percentage of carbon being converted. On average apparently as little as only 2% of carbon taken is converted to seed or biomass. If you can increase the size or quantity of seeds or fruits you are directly increasing the amount of carbon capture / conversion, if you go from 2% to 3% that's a 50% increase. Some countries living at the tough end of existence are already onto this, but it seems the self-righteous Europe / Western nations are still anti-GM at any cost. The numbers are staggering, very small changes can equate to billions of tonnes.

On a downer, there is also a study that discusses the over-farming of the oceans, which is causing the oceans to diminish as a carbon sink, we are removing too many fish and as a result the carbon isn't being absorbed for permanent or intermittent sequestration.

Such is humanity, give with one hand, take with the other! :o
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #800 –
Interesting to hear some discussions about the growing black market in copper and some rare earth elements, in particular tellurium metal, yttrium and ytterbium.  While the black market is not great for end users, the expansion of that market is a good sign for Australia. Much of these chemicals are used in trace amounts in SolarPV, Lasers, Energy Generation and Solid State devices, at the moment the world is only supplying about 1/20th of the potential demand just based on SolarPV alone and Australia is loaded in the stuff, which will attract the attention of some.

Gina and Twiggy will be bursting at the seems, both hold significant mining rights to various deposits around the country.

Which begs the question, will the environmentalists protest the mines when they know the resource is needed for Green Energy?

I feel some hypocrisy rising! ::)
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #801 –
Quote from: LP – on
Interesting to hear some discussions about the growing black market in copper and some rare earth elements, in particular tellurium metal, yttrium and ytterbium.  While the black market is not great for end users, the expansion of that market is a good sign for Australia. Much of these chemicals are used in trace amounts in SolarPV, Lasers, Energy Generation and Solid State devices, at the moment the world is only supplying about 1/20th of the potential demand just based on SolarPV alone and Australia is loaded in the stuff, which will attract the attention of some.

Gina and Twiggy will be bursting at the seems, both hold significant mining rights to various deposits around the country.

Which begs the question, will the environmentalists protest the mines when they know the resource is needed for Green Energy?

I feel some hypocrisy rising! ::)
Slightly off topic but my niece bought a new house. They got permission to go there prior to settlement to do a few things. They found the all the copper piping under the house had been stolen!
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #802 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Slightly off topic but my niece bought a new house. They got permission to go there prior to settlement to do a few things. They found the all the copper piping under the house had been stolen!
Bastards, copper theft is happening all over the place.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #803 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Slightly off topic but my niece bought a new house. They got permission to go there prior to settlement to do a few things. They found the all the copper piping under the house had been stolen!

That is not uncommon.

Varies area to area too.

Some areas you need to install the wiring, the insulation and the plaster all in the space of 24 hours.
If you wait any longer they strip the place of all the wiring because of the copper inside.
Copper is rarely used in new builds in favour of pex piping for the same reason.

Nothing worse than firing up your gas on your new appliance and realising that some of your pipework has gone missing,

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #804 –
Quote from: LP – on
Bastards, copper theft is happening all over the place.
At least they had the sense to turn the gas off, else it could have been disastrous.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #805 –
It was interesting to read the latest reports coming from EU agricultural research.

Most common folk make gross assumptions about stuff "they know", in reality they are like Sergeant Schultz and know nothing!

A great example are climate change doubters telling us they know it's not real because it's raining, or because it's cold, or because it's snowing. But the latest research is showing it's not the world getting warmer at the poles that drives the biosphere as much as changes in precipitation and nitrogen cycle patterns. This is clearly demonstrated in old world Europe where long term multidecade records are kept and clearly show species an plants slowly migrating West at 2.6x the rate of North or South. We shouldn't be surprised, real life is never as simple as people think.

I have to wonder how long before migrating West is declared as proof climate change is bogus?

Perhaps the biggest fools among us are those that declare nothing is changing, and parrot on about how things have been the "same" for thousands or millions of years. (Actually, some of them claim about 6500 years!) :o

It's change, Jim, but not as we know it!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #807 –
It's interesting to observe all sides of this energy debate, they have become parodies.

On the genuine renewables side of the debate, the low ball costing are laughable, even using projected efficiency and performance improvements they require an almost 10x reduction in manufacturing and material costs, combined with a 8x acceleration of the rollout. SolarPV is the backbone of the figures, and it's not going to fall to $35 per 400W panel, it's never going to happen! The last time I did the back of the envelope calculation, the lowball  projection was 1/3 of reality, and costs have actually gone in the wrong direction since then!

As an aside, looking at the most basic of the materials, the type of glass they use to build SolarPV, it's cost is projected to rise due to diminishing supplies of premium quality sand, which nervous governments now claim must be reserved for the semiconductor industry! :o

Some norbit claimed they will have printable / flexible SolarPV soon, dirt cheap, sure it could be 1/20th the price per square meter, but at best it's about 1/4 the energy density per square meter compared to conventional, and currently lasts only 1/10th as long, they are targeting 2 years life at 85% MTBF. You'd have to start replacing it before you'd finished building it in the first place! Conveniently omitted facts from the projections.

There is a segment that declares itself pro-renewables but in reality it's anti-nuclear, I write that because they declare coal and gas preferential ahead of nuclear, despite also declaring coal and gas is not an option. Apparently the worst option is even worse! This is the "We are all going to die from the bomb brigade!" and it includes a large chunk of the CSIRO. I don't get how such highly educated and clever individuals think Australia not building modern reactors stops the US, UK, China, India or Russia building application specific fast breeder reactors to make all the fissile material they need!

One great misdirection is the time to build, renewable can be instant on apparently, less than 10 years, see printable SolarPV longevity above, and nuclear going to take 100 years to get to capacity. 20 or 30 years to one, but the global average for a new nuclear site is 7 years, they use projects that have been delayed, postponed or interrupted as the baseline of 20 years, the global average is 7 years!

The CSIRO sites regulatory frameworks and compliance as a great contributor to the nuclear lead-time, before a sod is turned. I've asked for clarification about "What is regulatory" and have no official replay yet, but someone mentioned legal. Could it be they have factored in anti-nuclear legal challenges and delays to the projects as part of the lead-time?

Are legal challenges to the required new lithium and rare earth mines also factored into the SolarPV costing, be it Printable or Conventional?

Just asking, don't shoot the messenger!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #808 –
It is so hard to know what is right and I'm not going to spend hours trying to find out.

One thing that I am curious about with the oppositions nuclear plan is that typically the LNP has been about privatisation. Why is nuclear power an exception?
 - is it too expensive upfront to build and then run?
 - does it not make a sufficient return for private enterprise?
 - other?

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #809 –
Quote from: dodge – on
It is so hard to know what is right and I'm not going to spend hours trying to find out.

One thing that I am curious about with the oppositions nuclear plan is that typically the LNP has been about privatisation. Why is nuclear power an exception?
 - is it too expensive upfront to build and then run?
 - does it not make a sufficient return for private enterprise?
 - other?
Actually, most reactors are now built by Corporations not Governments, they are only commissioned by governments. A couple of governments have set themselves up as sub-contractors, like Sth Korea and France. But even so the bulk of the builds are sub-contracted to massive corporates.

Basically it appears to be about the upfront cost and time to return.

I became very cynical about big investors, like the superfunds, when the local governments could not find investors for infrastructure, the same reason why Vic State has re-established the SEC. Those superfunds beat you to death with bleating about how they are in for the long game, and the benefit of future generations, then the first super long big ticket item the state has offered for many years they run away from, that proves they are about short term and executive bonuses. They are run by corporate psychopaths and grifters who want a big bonus now, so they buy commercial and residential real-estate gouging our children for short term profit!

It will be interesting to see what the NextGen reactors can deliver, they be cheaper and faster to build, and deliver returns inside a decade.

The other big infrastructure spend Australia needs is processing raw materials to add value, we should adopt one of the GOP policies, and require countries like China and the USA to convert ore / resources to end product here rather than shipping out the ore. What happened to our local smelters is a disgrace, people should be going to jail for it! The same thing is now being repeated for gas and oil.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"