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Topic: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide (Read 5249 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #15 –
Cincotta on Butters.
Butters plays well in the wet.
2025... Moir of the same to come

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #16 –
Quote from: LP – on
What BigH does isn't the problem! ;)

Soldo and Dixon are held together with sticking plaster and will be concerned with self preservation.  Finlayson is more likely to be Harry’s ruck opponent and will also be concerned with his own safety.

Harry’s ruck tactics are intended to make the most of his physical attributes while avoiding the collisions that define Tom’s ruckwork.  Matty K has done a great job preparing Harry for the backup role and that includes limiting the possibility of collisions.  Furthermore, he will rarely have to compete for hitouts against frontline rucks.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #17 –
Quote from: LP – on
Don't jinx us!

You often post about respecting opponents, then you lightly dismiss the opposition's prime battering ram.

BigH's main advantage is his mobility and acceleration for a player his size, a ruck injury could end all that.

If I'm not mistaken, BigH is a twin, and his twin brother Ben has already had two minor PCLs.

I ran the numbers on this last week and pointed out how much you are jumping at shadows with this.
Backup ruck, in this case Harry, would attend about 4-6 centre bounces (depending on how many goals are scored) in a game. Now, generally, that is also against the backup ruck of the opposition, but lets ignore that point for 'worst case scenario' talk that you like to follow.
In those 4-6 centre bounces, tell harry not to jump. Tell harry to flat out move out of the way of anyone jumping at the ball. The chance of Harry contested and winning a hitout to advantage is about 1 in every 2-3 weeks from a centre bounce, so simply concede it. Problem solved.

The benefit to rucking Harry is the around the ground stuff. The ball ups and boundary throwins around the ground pose no risk of injury because the rucks start side by side and he can safely compete in them without an issue.

So please, forget about how injured poor Harry might get in 4-6 ruck contests that he doesn't even have to compete in.
He is more likely to get injured in the 10 pack marks he gets crunched in every week anyway, including by his own teammates!
 

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #18 –
If it's wet as some have indicated, they might just ruck Soldo and one of Finlayson or Marshall.....hard to see them having Dixon, Marshall and Finlayson up forward in the wet, along with Georgiades....and without Rioli.

If it's up against Finlayson or Marshall then H would be fine. If it's up against Finlayson, Kennedy could probably be enough of a chop out for 5-8 minutes each quarter.

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #19 –
Quote from: WASurfer – on
If it's wet as some have indicated, they might just ruck Soldo and one of Finlayson or Marshall.....hard to see them having Dixon, Marshall and Finlayson up forward in the wet, along with Georgiades....and without Rioli.

If it's up against Finlayson or Marshall then H would be fine. If it's up against Finlayson, Kennedy could probably be enough of a chop out for 5-8 minutes each quarter.
Surfie..Dont think the rucks/tapouts will have much influence, Soldo is a meathead rather than a delicate technician and Id expect him to be more interested in planting his big frame in stoppages and trying to collect a few of our blokes as well as body up on TDK.
It will be down to the midfield dominance and Wines vs Cripps, Drew vs Walsh and maybe Hewett/Kennedy/Cincotta trying to lock onto Butters and JHF, not expecting Rozee to play..

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #20 –
Yeah I don't think they'll risk Rozee....pretty sure they have the bye next week.

Cincotta probably not a bad option on JHF, especially when he goes forward.

To be honest, I can't see us making too many changes from last week unless there's any late injuries we don't know about. I'm not sure there's a lot to be gained by changing the sub from Carroll to Binns.

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #21 –
THURSDAY, MAY 30
Port Adelaide v Carlton at Adelaide Oval, 7pm ACST

PORT ADELAIDE

In: C.Dixon, I.Soldo, F.Evans
Out: W.Rioli (calf), J.Sweet (omitted), C.Rozee (ankle)

Last week's sub: Lachie Jones

CARLTON

In: Nil
Out: Nil

Last week's sub: Jack Carroll
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #22 –
Carlton owes it to the Adelaide supporters.
After so many years of not showing up to the Adelaide Oval.
Hope they bring their game plan and the effort to execute it.
Go Blues.
2025... Moir of the same to come

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #23 –
AI was pretty close to the result last week ;)
It looks like a close one. :D

Quote
The upcoming AFL match between Carlton and Port Adelaide is generating quite the buzz! According to the latest predictions and betting odds:

Stats Insider has simulated the match 10,000 times using advanced analytics and gives Carlton a 56% chance of winning the game at Marvel Stadium1.
The predicted final score from these simulations has Carlton winning 84-80

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #24 –
Quote from: Lods – on
AI was pretty close to the result last week ;)
It looks like a close one. :D

Stats Insider predicting 89 81 Ports way
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #25 –
Quote from: Lods – on
AI was pretty close to the result last week ;)
It looks like a close one. :D

Don't tell me you are trying to get a result from using statistics generated from AI?  :P

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #27 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Don't tell me you are trying to get a result from using statistics generated from AI?  :P

I was listening to an IT person on the wireless yesterday and he said that 2024 will be remembered as the last year that the interweb relied almost exclusively on data uploaded and generally verified by people.  He wasn’t critical of AI itself but he was very critical of the quality of the data AI is relying on … but that’s a discussion for another thread.

After careful consideration of both teams’ form coming into the game, the team selections and likely matchups, the weather forecast, our record in Adelaide, Port’s home ground advantage, Jacob Weitering’s discussion of our defence and the form of one of his defensive unit at the other end of the ground, the merits of both coaching groups, Charlie’s interview earlier in the week, the modified interpretation of the holding the ball rule, and my gut feeling, I’m going to go with EB and predict that the Bluebaggers will get up by 17 points.

🤞
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #28 –
TDK will give another Ruck/Ruck Rover Master Class at age 24.

Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide

Reply #29 –
Great to see we go in unchanged. Don't see that too often. We are capable of winning. If we enter the arena as the hunter, we win.

Go Blues
Coming together is the beginning.
Keeping together is progress.
Working together is success.
Henry Ford.