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Topic: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong (Read 11207 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #31 –
Quote from: pertz – on
I reckon he might need a run in the magoos first..

Yes, that sounds reasonable to me. He's been out since the 9th May, so it will be 6 weeks by the time Friday rolls around. Hard to say if the club will be tempted to roll the dice and name him.

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #33 –
Sorry mbb, I didn't see your post.

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #34 –
I would think no change this week which is a sign of strength

(Possibly Cunningham for Carroll / Motlop for Durdin but I'd keep the stability. Pitt should play twos)

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #35 –
Given their injury history, both Cunningham and Martin should be coming back through the VFL. Cerra, I'd back him in as soon as he's ready to go.

I thought Durdin looked alright when he came on last week.

We might go in unchanged again?

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #36 –
Interesting listening to Daniel Hoyne on SEN earlier. Didn't catch it all as I wasn't in the car long but he spoke about us on two matters:
1. Long kicks Down the Line - We only win 20% of them
2. Looking for an alternative (45 kick and go around the "wall" to get I50) - We do this the 2nd least in the comp.
As I said, I didn't catch it all but what I did hear was:
- With regards to 1. he was talking about the fact we win more when we play two designated rucks.
- Harry was the go to man for 1. but hasn't been winning anywhere near enough of the contests lately.
Hoyne said it will be fascinating to see if Vossy and co. focus on 1 or 2 this week vs Geel. That is, do we bring in Pitto to address 1 or do we focus on doing 2 more.
He is fantastic to listen to when he talks strategy, I wish I had time to listen to all his segment on SEN.
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time
2025-Carlton can win the 2025 AFL Premiership

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #37 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Interesting listening to Daniel Hoyne on SEN earlier. Didn't catch it all as I wasn't in the car long but he spoke about us on two matters:
1. Long kicks Down the Line - We only win 20% of them
2. Looking for an alternative (45 kick and go around the "wall" to get I50) - We do this the 2nd least in the comp.
As I said, I didn't catch it all but what I did hear was:
- With regards to 1. he was talking about the fact we win more when we play two designated rucks.
- Harry was the go to man for 1. but hasn't been winning anywhere near enough of the contests lately.
Hoyne said it will be fascinating to see if Vossy and co. focus on 1 or 2 this week vs Geel. That is, do we bring in Pitto to address 1 or do we focus on doing 2 more.
He is fantastic to listen to when he talks strategy, I wish I had time to listen to all his segment on SEN.

Most of the time we go long, its not necessarily to win the ball. Its to not lose it.
Its easy for the defender to spoil towards the boundary and force a throw in.....or spoil to the ground and force a ball up.

Either way, a stoppage is better than a 50-50 for us as we are one of the best, if not THE best in the comp in that regard.


re 2 rucks.....obviously an extra tall makes us more likely to mark more of them.

TDKs best game for us as a forward came against Geelong earlier this year. A fact i'm sure is not lost on our MC in regards to potentially bringing in Pitto.

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #38 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Most of the time we go long, its not necessarily to win the ball. Its to not lose it.
Its easy for the defender to spoil towards the boundary and force a throw in.....or spoil to the ground and force a ball up.

Either way, a stoppage is better than a 50-50 for us as we are one of the best, if not THE best in the comp in that regard.


re 2 rucks.....obviously an extra tall makes us more likely to mark more of them.

TDKs best game for us as a forward came against Geelong earlier this year. A fact i'm sure is not lost on our MC in regards to potentially bringing in Pitto.

I heard Hoyne also on SEN, it was very interesting.
So, when we go down the line out of defence between the arcs , we only retain possession or half the contest 20% of the time.
Worst in the comp and worst for many years over the last 4 weeks.
Conversely, when we switch play from defence we are the most successful team in the comp at retaining possession.  However, we only switch the play 20% of the time.
So Hoyne posed the question do we bring in Pitto to fix the down the line problem but potentially weaken our transition game or do work on switching the play more out of defence.
I'm firmly in the camp of the 2nd option.

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #39 –
Quote from: Gointocarlton – on
Interesting listening to Daniel Hoyne on SEN earlier. Didn't catch it all as I wasn't in the car long but he spoke about us on two matters:
1. Long kicks Down the Line - We only win 20% of them
2. Looking for an alternative (45 kick and go around the "wall" to get I50) - We do this the 2nd least in the comp.
As I said, I didn't catch it all but what I did hear was:
- With regards to 1. he was talking about the fact we win more when we play two designated rucks.
- Harry was the go to man for 1. but hasn't been winning anywhere near enough of the contests lately.
Hoyne said it will be fascinating to see if Vossy and co. focus on 1 or 2 this week vs Geel. That is, do we bring in Pitto to address 1 or do we focus on doing 2 more.
He is fantastic to listen to when he talks strategy, I wish I had time to listen to all his segment on SEN.

GC. You can download the SEN app and check the podcasts. I tend to do this as I don't listen live anymore as no in the car s much while WFH. I usually download it and listen to it while on my morning or afternoon walks.

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #40 –
Quote from: pertz – on
I heard Hoyne also on SEN, it was very interesting.
So, when we go down the line out of defence between the arcs , we only retain possession or half the contest 20% of the time.
Worst in the comp and worst for many years over the last 4 weeks.
Conversely, when we switch play from defence we are the most successful team in the comp at retaining possession.  However, we only switch the play 20% of the time.
So Hoyne posed the question do we bring in Pitto to fix the down the line problem but potentially weaken our transition game or do work on switching the play more out of defence.
I'm firmly in the camp of the 2nd option.

I like listening to Hoyne's analyses but looking at plays or play phases in isolation misses the big picture.  Kicks down the line seems to be a last resort for us and many of ours are dump kicks intended to clear the defensive 50 and enable us to set up behind the ball.  Short kicks, forward handballs and running the ball seems to be our preferred transition method and we do that very well.

Our long kicks down the line work best when Harry or Charlie provides the target.  De Koning has managed to clunk a few marks down the line in recent games but providing an outlet target down the line isn't a strong point.  Pittonet rarely takes a mark at all and the only way his addition to the 22 would improve our ability to win or draw down the line kicks is by allowing Harry or Charlie to play up the ground more often.

Our last four weeks includes the Sydney game where our systems broke down for much of the game.  That poor effort will skew our data to some extent.  The next three games were convincing wins against teams in reasonable form and, while there's always room for improvement, I wouldn't want to be changing much for the Geelong game.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #41 –
Pitto's go is playing a kick behind play as the zoning D50 ruck option, he is very clever in this role and positions himself well, which forces opposition clubs to go wide and that gains our team some time to setup. As @DJC‍ points out he is not a marking option down the line, and in any case he is often behind the footy not ahead of it.

TDK is a beginner and not reliable, but he'll get better, we need to persist with him forward of the footy so that combining with BigH and Charlie they can get the position / separation sorted out. Nothing pisses me off more than seeing the three of them flying for the same mark dragging their opponents to the footy.

TDK, BigH and Charlie are all very mobile for their size, they need space to take advantage of that not traffic, when they are dragged into traffic it's a win for the opposition.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #42 –
Quote from: LP – on
Nothing pisses me off more than seeing the three of them flying for the same mark dragging their opponents to the footy.

I see that as an organised set play where one of the three is the designated marker and the other two are running interference.

If it's not Charlie, Harry and Tom in the contest, Owies, Durdin, Cotters, etc will be there setting blocks and disrupting the defenders.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #43 –
Dont see the big deal with the ruck setup, TDK is playing the best footy of his career as the lone ruck and Harry has been ok as the fill in....why change that vs Geelong who have a rubbish ruckman in Stanley and/or a rookie kid in Conway.
If it was TDK vs Darcy and Jackson or Draper/Goldstein, Cox/Cameron etc then you would think about Pittonet but vs Geelong Id be sticking with TDK only after last games efforts...

Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong

Reply #44 –
regarding the long kick especially from FB is i think one of our weakness,i have watched over the years how the opposition just set up and ball just rebounds back. When was the last time we found a lose player outside 50 and spotted him up