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Topic: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond (Read 12680 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #105 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
Plenty of what ifs that you can play out that will send you insane. Best to forget it ever happened and move on to next week.
I'd like to but this one really sticks. I think it will for a very long time. Terrible night's sleep last night and been flat all day.
Hopefully a Dawk or Essenscum loss tonight will cheer me up a bit.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #106 –
Some points from last night's disaster:
[1] Our small forwards don't have much idea. Evens was very ordinary, but for his goal. Williams looked dangerous, but couldn't find space after quarter time. Motlop had a shocker. He had no game sense and his fumbling turned the ball over. Cottrell wasn't bad early, but he really didn't do the defensive things we really needed.
I know Fantasia has been playing well, but is he the answer? I doubt it. I would be thinking about Will White next week: he has some idea what he should be doing.
[2] Our entries into the forward line we very ordinary after quarter time. Expecting Motlop to out-mark anyone isn't smart. Kicking to predictable packs wasn't smart either. Making room for forward is the logical move, but did we do it? Kemp was bad in this area, after a decent enough start. He just didn't lead effectively as wasn't a target.
[3] In the first quarter we dominated the rucks. Tom was on top of Nankervis, while H was effective in his time there. Even Cripps was effective to start with. Then Richmond changed things up and we no longer had ruck dominance. Tom, for example, couldn't find a teammate for love or money. I think we should have changed things, instead of depending on things that we no longer working; having H play more of Nankervis and Tom go against a tired Nank or his chop-outs. Playing H more there would have been a reasonable change that could have proved worthwhile (he wasn't doing a lot as a forward). As the Tiger attack was small, even giving Jack a go might have proved useful: he, at least, tries to tap the ball to a team mate.
When Cripps had a turn, it worked until Richmond worked out he was going to grab the ball. From then on, he was ineffective. Perhaps a tap to a teammate might have been useful.
When we lost control of the tap, the Richmond mids out-worked us, which was disappointing. But, our centre square setup was the same as last years when it wasn't working. We need to work on that.
[4] Haynes and McGovern: Jaynes got the ball a lot, but he may as well have been wearing a Richmond guernsey. His kicks and handballs were poor and led directly to turnovers. His inability to hold a mark: I don't want to go there. Even last year he was holding his marks. His inability to work with his teammates also stood out, as was his panicking. His game was disastrous.
McGovern was similar, but not as bad. He held more marks and didn't turn it over every time he got it, but he lost confidence quickly and made a couple of awful mistakes. He isn't the future, but he can probably do the job for this season. I couldn't say that about Haynes.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #107 –
Silver lining - no expectations to be met any more this season. And Richmond will have their balloon pricked, so will come back to earth with a thud.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #108 –
Just hope we fell away and blew a 41pt lead due to early season fitness, as round 1 can be very strange. If it's not our short term future isn't bright.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #109 –
Watched some of the lowlights package on Fox Sports. That is some of the worst stuff I have ever had the misfortune to see from any football club. So glad, being away, that I never watched it live.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #110 –
We seem to be a very easy side to coach against. Harpoon or cover our strengths - instant confusion. This is not just based on last Thursday's debacle, this is a theme over some time.

Still between the ears.

But we are a very nice club.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #111 –
Quote from: dodge – on
Silver lining - no expectations to be met any more this season. And Richmond will have their balloon pricked, so will come back to earth with a thud.

Couldn't give a rats furry clacker about the Tiggers, or any other club for that matter. But your comment re lowering expectations hit home. Feint praise it's a silver lining. Every CFC member and supporter I've spoken with has adjusted expectation to low, very low.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #112 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Quote from: dodge – on
Silver lining - no expectations to be met any more this season. And Richmond will have their balloon pricked, so will come back to earth with a thud.

Couldn't give a rats furry clacker about the Tiggers, or any other club for that matter. But your comment re lowering expectations hit home. Feint praise it's a silver lining. Every CFC member and supporter I've spoken with has adjusted expectation to low, very low.
the sad part is, that our club has form with this.  Back up with a poor loss to hawthorn and our club will be mentally cooked and you can effectively write off our entire season.

That's what history suggests will happen.

Bring the kids in and let's stop beating round the bush.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #113 –
By all means catastrophize the Tigers game, but I don't think we should catastrophize the whole season. We've played 1 game out of 23. There's many variables that can affect the fortunes of all 18 teams.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #114 –
Quote from: PaulP – on
By all means catastrophize the Tigers game, but I don't think we should catastrophize the whole season. We've played 1 game out of 23. There's many variables that can affect the fortunes of all 18 teams.

Gee I hope you're right, Pauly. And, yes, wiping off an entire season based on one poor showing doesn't make sense... but... what we saw on Thursday night was so very, very familiar and similar to past years. It's as if we believe a catch-phrase or two and move a few magnets will make all the different. Time will tell.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #115 –
I'm reading in some places that it's the worst loss in the last 30 years.
Some folks are slightly over-reacting, I feel. ;)

I understand it's probably 'depression' based on years of 'let down.'
But it needs a bit of perspective.
When the game was in 'contest' we got out to nearly a seven goal lead.
Yep we gave it up.
But we got there in the first place.
Our best periods were miles better than their best periods.
It's a game we should have won.
Even in the last quarter, with just a bit more composure, we had plenty of opportunities.
But it became a 'frantic' rushed effort.

Run the Hawks close (don't have to win) and it will turn on it's head again.
Taking it 'one game at a time' is for the players, not the supporters.
We'll know exactly where we are in about 6-8 weeks time.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #116 –
Paul, I don't like to catastrophe the season, but when the game got tight and we needed a circuit breaker I looked at the blokes playing and realised we didn't have one. 

Curnow and fantasia are the only two names I can think of that will swim against the tide and put their hand up and turn it.

I made a lengthy post about tactics.  Momentum and scoring being the king in modern sports. 

Without Charlie in the side, the guys looked bereft of confidence.  That's not to belittle the guys playing but they are not game changers.

That's ok, not everyone can be but we needed a player to take the game by the scruff of the neck 3rd quarter and I found myself thinking only cripps is the one.  That bodes poorly for us.  Harry's effort from the boundary is the sort of thing made of bad mentality, and it spoke for where his heads at.  If his head space is no good he gives you a nothing game.  His head space is no good without Charlie, whilst Charlie finds another level without him.  That's the sort of stuff that is going to see us struggle in tight ones all season.  Owies did this to a degree but he would also go missing when the team was up and about. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #117 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I'm reading in some places that it's the worst loss in the last 30 years.
Some folks are slightly over-reacting, I feel. ;)

I understand it's probably 'depression' based on years of 'let down.'
But it needs a bit of perspective.
When the game was in 'contest' we got out to nearly a seven goal lead.
Yep we gave it up.
But we got there in the first place.
Our best periods were miles better than their best periods.
It's a game we should have won.
Even in the last quarter, with just a bit more composure, we had plenty of opportunities.
But it became a 'frantic' rushed effort.

Run the Hawks close (don't have to win) and it will turn on it's head again.
Taking it 'one game at a time' is for the players, not the supporters.
We'll know exactly where we are in about 6-8 weeks time.

41 points up against a team that finished wooden spoon last year.  It's shocking.  Comparable to our come back vs Brisbane last year, but we had just come off a prelim against them and they were down after a GF loss.  What's our excuse? 

I said it before our mental lightweights are likely to write off 4 rounds after this one.  Won't respond.

I think most fans are living life with rose coloured glasses on.  I was so so about this season based on how we started pre season and I said before the game that we needed to win well to convince me we could do something this season.  Halfway through the third I still thought we'd win, but was resigned to that being just enough after being up by 41, and extremely dissapointed to have not won well at that point still thinking we'd turn it around.

In reality the coaches made tactical blunders and missed stuff blind Freddie could see, subbed the incorrect player, and then we lost.  That was what was dissapointing.  It dot pointed what we've been saying since mid way last year about strange choices. 
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #118 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
Gee I hope you're right, Pauly. And, yes, wiping off an entire season based on one poor showing doesn't make sense... but... what we saw on Thursday night was so very, very familiar and similar to past years. It's as if we believe a catch-phrase or two and move a few magnets will make all the different. Time will tell.

I guess I'm just saying we need more data before we can make a sensible guess. Humanity's record at predicting future events across the full spectrum of human endeavor, throughout history, is pretty lousy.

Re: AFL Rd 1 2025 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond

Reply #119 –
Interesting to hear Adem Yze state that according to the "expected score" metric, Carlton should've won.