The Hard Road To The Premiership

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Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #135 – March 03, 2017, 02:28:26 pm

No doubt a spread of goal kickers is desirable and helps you move up the ladder a little, but the successful top end teams still seem to have "star attraction" and a very good supporting cast i.e one bloke who can kick 50+ goals and a few others not far behind.

The Doggies are a real anamoly in this respect.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #136 – March 03, 2017, 02:30:09 pm

As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #137 – March 03, 2017, 03:07:12 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 02:30:09 pm

As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :

http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html

The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.

Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%

If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%

If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.

That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.

The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.

Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.

When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.

Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!

Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #138 – March 03, 2017, 03:19:49 pm

No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.

An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #139 – March 03, 2017, 03:33:32 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 03:19:49 pm

No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.

An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.

Probably ten I50 if you also increase the efficiency.

Our problem isn't the KPF it's the average goal kickers, last season our highest on average was Everitt but he was #70 on the league tables, our next is Jones in about #84 position and Armfield at #89 position. We only had 3 players in the top 100, Tutt was #113 and Wright #116.

It's a very sad state of affairs, most of our guys average less than a goal a game, we need four or five more players getting a goal a game and we have a significant change.

SOJ, C.Curnow could be two who can average above 1 per game.
Murphy if he's back averages about 0.7
McKay who knows?
Cripps should improve in this regard.
SPS / Pickett / Le Bois can they get to 1 goal a game?

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #140 – March 03, 2017, 03:50:08 pm

What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?

1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50

etc.

and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #141 – March 03, 2017, 03:55:52 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 03:50:08 pm

What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?

1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50

etc.

and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.

Well actually we are far from the lowest I50 team, but our efficiency of scoring from I50 is about the lowest. When you see our blokes marking I50 but chipping the ball sideways it's a tell!

I think you'll be shocked, Cripps will be taking shots for goal Fyfe style because he is that type of midfielder. He's certainly not a Mitchell, Lewis or Hodge and they average next to nothing! I don't see Cripps sitting on the defensive side of stoppages looking to give the ball off, he's going to be in the thick of things winning possessions. Cripps should be targeting at least one goal a game from a free I50 as a result of a stoppage infringement.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #142 – March 03, 2017, 04:03:58 pm

Hodge is no longer a mid, but i take your point.

Cripps is not a good kick of the footy. I've said this before. To be sure, he is among the least our worries, and I'm glad he's one of us. But if we f believe what one of the Doggies insiders said recently, a big part of their recruiting in recent times is to get blokes who are exceptional at one thing, and it only has to be one thing, then create a team where each player complements the other by having the exceptional attributes others lack.

If we apply this to us, Cripps needs to be surrounded by good kickers of the ball. In a team with poor kicking skills, he only exacerbates the problem. But I will repeat, he is among the least of our issues.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #143 – March 03, 2017, 04:32:42 pm

Quote from: LP on March 03, 2017, 03:07:12 pm

The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.

Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%

If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%

If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.

That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.

The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.

Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.

When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.

Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!

Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!

The most telling stat is that Adelaide's top 4 goal scorers outscored our whole list!

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #144 – March 03, 2017, 04:34:46 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 03:50:08 pm

What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?

1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50

etc.

and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.

Intersting, one of BB's comments on SEN about Sat game v Melb was that we over possessed it.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #145 – March 03, 2017, 04:36:30 pm

Amers / Lp - I get all that. But here is another fun fact to consider......

If you look at the top 100 goal kickers over the league, and total up each teams total goal contribution from these players, the highest 9 teams made up the top 8 teams. The aggregate goals for those teams ranged from 297 [Adel] to WB [163]. The Bullies were a big anomaly due to their spread of goal scorers and the fact that their major goal kickers in Smith and Redpath both played less than half a year.

Carlton had the lowest number [91] this year, and last year [88]. We need to double this number to get to being mid pack in terms of goal scoring.

Of course you want a spread, as the WB have shown. But I'm just saying that by any statistical measure our current goal scoring is off the charts bad, when compared to Carlton historically or the rest of the competition. Those are the facts.

You can cut the numbers a lot of different ways depending on your point of view. Murphy has averaged over 1 goal per game once in 12 seasons, and has been consistently around 0.7, so you can pencil him in about 15 goals if he plays 20 games - that's 8 more than this year. That makes up for the lose from no Walker [9]. Gibbs contribution last year was higher than above his historical average, and the young guys will contribute 10-15 more goals than last year at best. Palmer, at his best, will just replace what we lose from Everitt. Wright had a career best year in 2016 with 22 goals, so getting much more out of him is unlikely.

We got 61 goals last year out of Lamb, Sumner, Armfield, Buckley, Jones & Tuohy - all players I would expect to see little from if SOJ, Curnow, Pickett and McKay play a lot of games. So if those 4 play and add 60 more goals than last year, but we lose 60 - then you break even basically. I agree you might get more out of Levi, and if he kicks that 30 that's an incremental 12 on last year. But all that's a long way from the extra 60 goals we need to come from our top 5-6 players.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #146 – March 03, 2017, 04:43:11 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton on March 03, 2017, 04:34:46 pm

Intersting, one of BB's comments on SEN about Sat game v Melb was that we over possessed it.

Yes, that seemed to be a problem last year; taking an extra kick or handpass and missing the more direct, more threatening option.

I thought it was due in part to lack of confidence in the player presenting and lack of confidence in the ball carrier's ability to hit the target. However, there are times when our players pull off the most audacious ball movement, as we did a few times against Melbourne.

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #147 – March 03, 2017, 04:57:13 pm

As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.

We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #148 – March 03, 2017, 05:01:29 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 04:57:13 pm

As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.

We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?

what's the link for all theses stats please?

So if we improve the number AND QUALITY of the I50s and improve our conversion, we're a shoe in for the eight right!?

Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership

Reply #149 – March 03, 2017, 05:04:21 pm

Quote from: PaulP on March 03, 2017, 04:57:13 pm

As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.

We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?

I think we have too many players who do not want the shot, they have become gun shy as a result of too many relatively easy missed set shots.

Those reports of over-possession, how many of them skirt the F50 arc.

I think we have a positive this year, we have many new faces who want to score goals. We just need the old brigade to give them the opportunities to do so!