Re: The Hard Road To The Premiership
Reply #143 –
The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.
Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%
If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%
If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.
That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.
The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.
Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.
When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.
Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!
Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!
The most telling stat is that Adelaide's top 4 goal scorers outscored our whole list!