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Topic: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs (Read 16281 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #90 –
Quote from: Lods – on
I mentioned before that Acres's disposal was poor (47%)

I also mentioned that sadly it wasn't the worst.
Both Cripps (42%) and Weitering (46%) were poorer.
I cut them a bit more slack than Acres because of the attention Cripps gets, and the fact that a lot of Weitering's kicks were hacks out of defence under pressure.
But still poor and costly.

On the small forwards... if you could take the best bits of Motlop, Durdin and Owies and combine them into one player we'd have a super small forward.
But they take up three places, not one, and I'm not sure we benefit with all three playing at the same time.

Indeed, some damning data there.

[1] Blake Acres: He had a shocker last night, and his percentage was waayyy down. He has been good for us this year and I do think he is a reasonable pickup, but he didn't have the right matchup last night. I would have swung him forward for a while, as most of our small forwards don't have any marking power (the exception is Owies). Changing things up might have lifted his confidence.

[2] Jacob Weitering's disposal has been a problem this year. He is turning the ball over far too often for a guy whose kicking is normally pretty good.
To be honest, he is not looking at his best, even if he did destroy his opponent last night. But he isn't showing the steadiness he often brings.

[3] Our small forwards are a problem. Owies was great last night, but he is the only one who has some decent forward craft. He is also the one most likely to get a snap goal, but even he isn't getting many of these. Part of the problem is that we are usually going forward into a crowd. That would make it hard for any small forward.
But both Corey Durdin and Jesse Motlop are really cold at the moment. Neither offers anything in the air and their opponents are often among our opposition's best players. Jesse has a few moments of real magic, but they are few and far between. Corey is just struggling to get the ball.
I'd drop one or both, if there was anyone to be brought in: Jesse needs to work on his body strength and tank, both of which are poor. He also needs to work on getting in the right places, as he just doesn't. Corey needs a couple of good pre-seasons to build his tank up. He also needs to work on his positioning around the packs, as the opposition small defenders just run the ball out and get kicks at will.

[4] I was hoping that Ed Curnow could play as a defensive forward, but he seems to be struggling this year. He has played a couple of good games, mostly as a defensive mid, but he isn't having the impact he might have. He really struggled last night, when he came on as sub.
I think that Brodie Kemp might have been a better option.

[5] Who do we play as a small forward?
One of our options is Matthew Cottrell. He didn't run out the game as well as he usually does, a left over from his lack of preseason. But he runs hard, he has a real presence in the air, he chase hard and he can convert nicely. It would be good while he builds up his match fitness and we work on developing Durdin and Motlop (I'd be putting a LOT of kms into both of them and no small time in the gym).
I would also consider bring Alex Cincotta up the field. He didn't play that well last night, but he has a future. His kicking has depth and he runs hard.
I'd also consider playing Blake Acres up there if he is having a crappy night (as he didn't last night). His ability in the air would make him a lot more dangerous than our present options.
That said, I prefer to have him on the wing, but I do want options.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #91 –
Quote from: RiverRat – on
English led Pitto a merry dance around the ground and ran away from him several times to create a link.  Having said that, I thought Pitto was very, very good in the ruck contests (particularly boundary throw ins) because he played a couple of metres in front and blocked English's run - I was surprised that he didn't have a free kick paid against him.

Unless he was injured, I can't understand whey Kemp was omitted.  Apart from his recent performances, his presence freed up Young to play back-up ruck to good effect whereas Silvagni was way too small to offer the same contest.  Having said that, I thought Jack contested his heart out (when doesn't he) as a spoiler.  Also, surely Kemp would have offered much more as a sub than Ed.
I thought Pitto actually thrashed English last night, right up to the last few minutes. English tried hard to get a few kicks around the ground, but even there he wasn't as effective as he has been. I don't think he took a single pack mark, for example. (4 marks in total).
What was happening is that Pitto's taps have not been as effective, as the opposition have woken up to our style of midfield play. We need to start working on that, especially protecting our mids.

Jack played his best as a 2nd ruck for ages. He did better than I expected at the contest, as was MUCH better on the ground in the middle. He isn't a serious ruck option, not if we're going to improve, but he worked damned hard in there last night.

We are better when we play 2 rucks. That allows Pitto to get some decent rest while providing Tom de Koning, a totally different type of ruckman, who can get over people who are used to wrestling with Pitto. Tom actually can provide the marking option that Marc often can't. But that requires him to be in something approaching form. I'd consider bringing him in against Collingwood, as their ruck division is something we can exploit.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #92 –
Last few weeks we are starting to panic, probably feeling the pressure, too many fans listening to the media argy bargy only makes things worse.

It's bigger problem for us than the opposition because as heart rates go up the intensity spikes and our ball use becomes poor, then our slower guys not only feel under the same pressure, but they waste energy trying to keep up with players they can't catch.

We've lost the game control we showed in the first few rounds, the opposition have learnt to use a berserka game style on us, keep the pace of play high, and our skills and game style go out the door.

Also, we have no nasty, we do very little to make opponents pay a price for taking space in front of BigH or Charlie, last night the Dogs basically ran just two conventional KPPs against us, English and Lobb, take them out and the Dogs game plan falls apart. The Dogs basically ran Lobb as a wing, something I've been asking for SoJ, TDK or even Charlie to have a crack at. It's clearly an area we've become poor in managing, and are wasting a lot of run and carry by having Charlie and BigH rotate up the field from inside F50.

Cripps basically gets bare rooted, opponents turn to face him, make front on contact, rip is jumper, hit him in the head, and he gets zero protection from the umpires. It's just bizarre!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #93 –
At least the side had a go all night for a change. You can barrack for a side that has a go. Our skills and decision making were still appalling. The Bulldogs kicked four goals in the first half and two of them came from our mistakes. The umpires lost the plot in the last five to ten minutes in the third quarter. Took on the game more last night but still need to do it a lot more. The application by McKay, Motlop, Cripps and Walsh with their set shots on goal in the first half was disgraceful. Do the Carlton players practice kicking for goals and do the apply what they practice? You can't give sides five goals head start and expect to win. This is second week in a row in which we have kicked one goal in a half. So far this year we have had eight quarters where we have kicked two goals, five quarters where we have kicked one goal and three quarters where we have kicked no goals. We don't kick enough goals. Our disposal is laughable and our football IQ is lamentable.
I thought Owies was good, Silvagni and Pittonett did a number on Englsih, Newman is having a good year, Hollands did a number of really good things, The defensive unit was pretty good until the last five minutes but McGovern was off. They are very desperate down there but they tend to panic, and like the rest of team, their disposal gets them into trouble. If we could clean up their disposal coming out of the back half we have a lot less problems. The Bulldogs midfield were a lot better organized and probably shaded us on the night, especially with the finish of the game. Our players run hard but lack real pace through the middle and our game appears to rely on individual efforts.

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #94 –
Perplexed. Confused. But perhaps there is a method in all this madness/oddness.

The mixed messages coming out of the club require clarification with the members and supporters. We're not mugs, you know. And FFS get the players on the same page and only give a gig to those who are.

And we played the first half like a club mired in mixed messages, or messages too complex to comprehend and implement.

Benefit of the doubt: I wonder if there is a concerted effort to alter culture, which is painfully slow and the process is still confusing some and some just aren't up to it. But there seems to be a mentality to persist with this process until we get it right more often than not. We tend to finish years poorly, maybe we're focussed on turning that around and not start the season with all guns blazing? Hence a greater focus on building... whatever the cost - long view.

MC: Okay, clowns, time to ease in some better forward line footy IQ, and future talent. Corey Durdin needs serious Magoo time. Replacement? A couple I can think of. Ed should be the Skipper of the Magoos, no more senior footy. (Carroll/Binns/Kemp perhaps even Fogarty as well need senior footy exposure). Seeing as how finals are no longer a priority, get the best out of our future... now.

I hear the CEO thinks we're top heavy. Agree. But... 4 of our talls are out of form, either in the contest or disposal/shots on goal wise. Weiters and H chief among them: between the lugholes. TDK is out of the side and probably has a between the lugholes issue as well. And Young is lacking confidence: again, between the lugholes.

Acres: WTF... you're a senior player, your kicking disposal is a liability under pressure. Get with the program... more instinct, less thinking. Ditto, Crippa.

Authority: Too many of our blokes lack authority in their disposal. For an example of what to do, watch Cottrell and Owies... instinctual, quick decisions and extreme effort. Great example was Cottrell getting the aggott at HF and looking for the best option (no skies balls - kick and hope!), immediately passed to Owies (who makes very good position) - goal. These two blokes are both dangerous when they get the bag of air. Newman also has instinct and authority, as do Doc, Charles... even Cerra, Kennedy, McGovern, Walsh, Acres, Pitto, JSOS, Cincotta & Saad display boldness and authority with the way they go about it.

Leadership/Discipline: Weiters and Cripps concern me. Leadership is not only about trying to set an example, it's much more. We're seeing far more and better leadership from Doc, Newman, Walsh, Cottrell, JSOS and Owies. The goal should be to have a team of leaders... every player accepting and displaying commitment and ownership of their game and their vital part in the process, and sacrificing self if needed to help (demand from) others that very same commitment and ownership.

Effort can't be questioned but every possession and disposal should be valued and held as a premium... that will lead to efficiency, and that will feed confidence/scoreboard pressure.

Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #95 –
could've would've should've
2025... Moir of the same to come

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #96 –
I wondered at end of 3rd quarter if we’d been saving energy to come home hard and maybe that was a tactic for kicking one goal in the first but. I don’t think so.

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #97 –
Quote from: Baggers – on
I hear the CEO thinks we're top heavy. Agree. But... 4 of our talls are out of form, either in the contest or disposal/shots on goal wise. 
Cook was talking about contracts and dollars, not player size.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #98 –
Quote from: crashlander – on
I thought Pitto actually thrashed English last night,
I wrote this in the ruck thread.

===============================
Quote from: shawny – on
Dribble. English is an AA ruckman this years. Our guy is a plodder. End of story.
Quote from: Slowhand – on
Yep, English is the best Ruck in the comp. 
He will give Libba and Bont first use all night.


Pittonet vs English - STAT
83 - 85 - Ruck contests
48 - 30 - Hitouts
18 - 6 - Hitouts to advantage
22% - 7% - Ruck contest - hitout to advantage %

Pittonet was 3 times more likely to get the ball to a teammate from the ruck contest than 'AA' English that 'will give Libba and Bont first use all night'.

Pittonet also got 5 clearances to English 1.
He is dominating the ruck each week, and people still do not see it. He did all the above, and still only played 78% game time to English 86%
=============

Quote from: crashlander – on
We are better when we play 2 rucks. That allows Pitto to get some decent rest while providing Tom de Koning, a totally different type of ruckman, who can get over people who are used to wrestling with Pitto. Tom actually can provide the marking option that Marc often can't. But that requires him to be in something approaching form. I'd consider bringing him in against Collingwood, as their ruck division is something we can exploit.

Disagree.

Pittonet only played 78% game time last night. When TDK plays, he plays 50-60%.....as does TDK.
We play a 2nd ruck and we tie up a spot on the bench for over half a game. How much benefit do we get from that? Output wise, we actually get less from the ruck contests, because TDK can't deliver Pittonets numbers. So ruckwork wise, 2 rucks makes us worse.

Around the ground, TDK offers us more.....but is it really much more?
Averages this year, TDK offers us 0.8 more marks per game and 0.1 more contested marks per game.
That is, in 10 games of playing 2 rucks, we get 8 marks and 1 of them contested.

Now take TDK out of the picture and add in a midfielder. Will that midfielder offer the team more in 10 weeks than 8 marks and 1 contested? Absolutely.

The theory of 2 rucks makes sense.
The output of it suggests otherwise.

.....until we start seeing more output from TDK at least.

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #99 –
We win more games with TDK.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #101 –
Time to play for the future because the current team are not good enough.

TDK and Kemp need to play.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #102 –
Quote from: LP – on
Cook was talking about contracts and dollars, not player size.

Thank you for that clarification, Spotted One. But the scenario remains that we've 5 key talls, 4 of whom are not delivering what they should and for whatever reason.

I guess we'll see some culling of expensive non-hackers at year's end... and perhaps one or two good talls for draft/trade improvement.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17
 

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #103 –
Quote from: madbluboy – on
Time to play for the future because the current team are not good enough.

TDK and Kemp need to play.
How old do you think Pittonet is?

Pittonet is 26, almost 27.
If we deem him 'too old' we lose everyone 26 or over, we lose over half our team from last night.....and a few others.

Kennedy
Owies
Charlie
Cincotta
Hewitt,
Acres
Cripps
McGovern
Saad
Docherty
Newman
Ed
along with Pittonet makes 13 from last night 23 players.

Also includes....
Cuningham
Marchbank
S. Durdin
Martin
Williams
Plowman

In total 19 players who are 'too old' at 26 or more.
Yeah, nah.

Re: AFL Rd 9 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs

Reply #104 –
Get Harry away from goals for a couple of weeks.
Not permanently necessarily, but just enough to get a bit of confidence back, and take a bit off pressure of his goalkicking.
Tell him to play between the arcs...or a little futher out so he's not tempted.
Let him have a roving commission and take some of the ruck work.
He's not doing badly around the ground...but his kicking for goal is deflating and a momentum changer.

Get a few defensive players around the forward line to keep the ball in.
Kicks directed to Curnow will almost always result in him marking, or a spillage.

It's diabolical...it couldn't be more diabolical with a bit of a mix-up, some separation between the talls, and some defensive pressure.