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Topic: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS (Read 29888 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #210 –
Quote from: laj – on
My PT client went to Qld last week, got sick there then on the plane back as seated amongst all the Carlton players. Hope it is just co-incidence.
Go send them to hang out with GWS and/or Dogs players in the next week to give us a bye in week 1. ;)

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #211 –
Tis the season for tweaks and twinges.

Always happens just before finals, players start "noticing" stuff, or start to panic about fixing stuff up they have been carrying all season!
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #212 –
If the MC believes that the correct formula is Charlie, Harry, TDK and Pittonet in the same team, why aren't they giving it a workout this weekend?  With Pittonet and McKay's injuries this year, the 4 have hardly ever played together, and if Pittonet is out of form, he ain't going to find it in the twos!!!

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #213 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
If the MC believes that the correct formula is Charlie, Harry, TDK and Pittonet in the same team, why aren't they giving it a workout this weekend?  With Pittonet and McKay's injuries this year, the 4 have hardly ever played together, and if Pittonet is out of form, he ain't going to find it in the twos!!!

After the mess the twos made last week there is no chance there now.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #214 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
If the MC believes that the correct formula is Charlie, Harry, TDK and Pittonet in the same team, why aren't they giving it a workout this weekend?  With Pittonet and McKay's injuries this year, the 4 have hardly ever played together, and if Pittonet is out of form, he ain't going to find it in the twos!!!

This is the puzzling thing.

2 key forward and 2 rucks (and Jack) is what they seem to have been hoping for all season. Injuries have stopped that from 4 of those 5.
They get close to it (missing Jack), and they change it up for the worst??

1 ruck works if you have a 3rd tall as backup (Jack, Young....whoever).
It doesn't really work if you are taking one of your KPPs.

Baffling.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #215 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
:P

For those playing at home...
Chance of a hitout to advantage from a ruck contest (RC-HTA%)
4.5% - C. Curnow
4.8% - McKay
8.1% - Young
8.6% - Silvagni
10.9% - TDK
14.5% - Pittonet

McGovern has only ever attended 7 ruck contests in his career, and never got a hitout to advantage.

Taking possession from a ruck contest isn't a hitout to advantage.  It's a "ruck hardball get".

The better tall forwards are pretty adept at ruck hardball gets and Harry's got a few this season.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #216 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
If the MC believes that the correct formula is Charlie, Harry, TDK and Pittonet in the same team, why aren't they giving it a workout this weekend?  With Pittonet and McKay's injuries this year, the 4 have hardly ever played together, and if Pittonet is out of form, he ain't going to find it in the twos!!!

The MC must think that Pitto, in his current form, is a liability.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #217 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Taking possession from a ruck contest isn't a hitout to advantage.  It's a "ruck hardball get".

The better tall forwards are pretty adept at ruck hardball gets and Harry's got a few this season.
That is essentially a clearance....usually.

I can check those stats, but its not 100% accurate as a player may win a clearance despite not being the ruck. Probably applies to Jack more than the others as he is more likely to be at a clearance while not rucking.....but still wouldn't be a regular thing.

These are career totals to get a better idea (bigger numbers, more accurate ;) )
Likelyhood a player will get a clearance from RC...
4.3% - Young
5.5% - Pittonet
5.8% - TDK
6.5% - Harry
17.0% - Jack

To get a more complete picture, either win the ruck OR get the clearance....
HTA + Clearance % from RC.....
11.3% - Harry
12.4% - Young
16.6% - TDK
20.1% - Pittonet
25.8% - Jack

Again, not as accurate as the pure ruck contests because you can attend a contest NOT as the ruck. You can technically get a hitout to advantage and also a clearance if they handball it back to you....although this is uncommon for rucks as we know.
But i think its pretty clear that the reason i've been pushing the Jack barrow as the 2nd ruck option is for team balance around the ground, including at stoppages.
1 out of 4 contests he attends, he gets a clear advantage from.
1 in 5 from Pittonet is a lot more accurate because he doesn't attend a stoppage unless he is rucking.....and similar for the others.

Regardless of the specifics of the numbers, its clear Harry is far from our best option as a ruck and backup ruck.

I suspect the experiment may work once, or even twice in the right circumstances. I can't seeing it being a flag winning move though.

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #218 –
I'll actually be surprised if Pittonet doesn't play.
The only reason I could see would be if he is carrying a niggle, but why not say managed rather than omitted if that's the case.

Again...it may be an experiment to see how McKay goes.
But if that's the case don't expect too much in the way of a win result.
 

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #219 –
We've gone too many changes we won't win IMHO.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #220 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
We've gone too many changes we won't win IMHO.

A lot depends on the attitude and 'needs' of the opposition

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #221 –
Quote from: Thryleon – on
We've gone too many changes we won't win IMHO.

Over the past two and a bit months we've had plenty of changes and loss of key personnel during games and still found a way to win.

I think it's more about the collective than individuals, and with everyone on the same page and with the same hunting attitude/doing his job, our team is very difficult to beat.

In regard to Pitto being an emergency I suspect we believe we may have been a bit too top heavy last outing. Perhaps TDK will ruck most, if not all day, from the forward fifty arc to defense with H taking forward line rucking duties.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #222 –
Go through the archives and tell me the last time a squad had 5 changes to their 22 and won the match.  It ruins comtinuity and momentum and you can bet the farm on that!

Ive tipped against it all season and won.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #223 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
That is essentially a clearance....usually.

I can check those stats, but its not 100% accurate as a player may win a clearance despite not being the ruck. Probably applies to Jack more than the others as he is more likely to be at a clearance while not rucking.....but still wouldn't be a regular thing.

These are career totals to get a better idea (bigger numbers, more accurate ;) )
Likelyhood a player will get a clearance from RC...
4.3% - Young
5.5% - Pittonet
5.8% - TDK
6.5% - Harry
17.0% - Jack

To get a more complete picture, either win the ruck OR get the clearance....
HTA + Clearance % from RC.....
11.3% - Harry
12.4% - Young
16.6% - TDK
20.1% - Pittonet
25.8% - Jack

Again, not as accurate as the pure ruck contests because you can attend a contest NOT as the ruck. You can technically get a hitout to advantage and also a clearance if they handball it back to you....although this is uncommon for rucks as we know.
But i think its pretty clear that the reason i've been pushing the Jack barrow as the 2nd ruck option is for team balance around the ground, including at stoppages.
1 out of 4 contests he attends, he gets a clear advantage from.
1 in 5 from Pittonet is a lot more accurate because he doesn't attend a stoppage unless he is rucking.....and similar for the others.

Regardless of the specifics of the numbers, its clear Harry is far from our best option as a ruck and backup ruck.

I suspect the experiment may work once, or even twice in the right circumstances. I can't seeing it being a flag winning move though.

It may be counted as a clearance if the player gets a disposal.    A "ruck hardball get" is a specific category used by Champion Data.  Midway through last season Tom Hawkins had 20 "ruck hardball gets", something like twice as many as the next best.

I noticed when Jack took clean possession from a ruck contest and kicked a goal (when he injured his knee) that he wasn't credited with a hitout to advantage but was given a contested possession.  I imagine that if you drilled down further, there'd be a "ruck hardball get".

I know that Harry has got several this season and Charlie has at least one.

I will be expecting Harry to go for clean possessions whenever he can.
It's still the Gulf of Mexico, Don Old!

Re: AFL Rd 24 2023 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs GWS

Reply #224 –
Quote from: DJC – on
I noticed when Jack took clean possession from a ruck contest and kicked a goal (when he injured his knee) that he wasn't credited with a hitout to advantage but was given a contested possession.  I imagine that if you drilled down further, there'd be a "ruck hardball get".
Same as Cripps, given contested possession for taking it out of the ruck in F50.

It's another example of somewhat bogus reporting of stats, because the ruck can defeat his opponent hands down in F50 take the ball cleanly, and it just gets reported as Contested Possession or Score Assist.
"Extremists on either side will always meet in the Middle!"