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Topic: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums) (Read 104676 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #30 –
On Casboult vs Rowe, based on the way both have gone about it, its clear to me that you go with the one that is currently travelling better.  Its line ball between them as neither is dominant and both have varying ability to contribute across the position they play but largely if one is a bit fatigued or one is carrying a niggle you go the other way.  One might be a bit flat mentally the other might be chomping at the bit.  You go the other way.



"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #31 –
I think this is 'The' season defining game. We finish with Richmond, Essendon and Port away. That is 3 top 8 teams to round off our season. If we can't beat Fremantle at home I don't think we will play finals and I don't think we deserve to.

Fremantle will not allow us many inside 50 marks, so I think the Rowe v Casboult argument should almost purely be around who will crash the packs and create chances for our smalls first. We basically want a Leigh Brown (Collingwood days) effort from whoever it is. It is tough, because I think Rowe gets his hands to more balls, but Casboult appears to take more marks (without checking stats anyway), the question has to be though 'does Rowe have any influence when he gets his hands to the ball or is it usually a pretty straight forward spoil for the defenders, I think it is the latter.

One thing I would take note though is that the smalls should be hitting that contest differently depending on who it is that does play. If for example Casboult plays... I would be wanting probably one small around the foot of the contest and one around the back. If it is Rowe I would want a small 5-10 m in front of the contest and another around the foot of it. This is particularly true for longer high balls, as when out on a lead there is far less time, but that is the 'zonal' situation I would want our smalls playing. That doesn't have to be one of the amigos and it could just as well be Army or Murphy doing that.

I would probably play Casboult for what it is worth, I think the situation is more controllable when the defenders don't get a clear smash away and I think they are more likely to with Rowe.

Fremantle will (like all their games) be trying to setup from defense and we can't commit all players forward because that is when they will hurt us badly. They cover their zones exceptionally well and will block our space better than most clubs, barring maybe Sydney. I think the boys will absolutely have to be at their best, but if they are I think we will take this by about 2-3 goals.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #32 –
Think it will be won and lost in the midfield like most games between the better teams......Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy and Hill will need negating and I expect Judd wont get much of the footy if his old mate Crowley picks him up. Sandilands is also back which means Kruezer will have to be at his best and need to run the giant around.
The Freo giant usually posts up at FF during some stage in the game when they play us  and we need to make sure we have the right mix of talls to man him up.
Ross Lyon will close the game and make it a slog fest and I dont expect to see any pretty footy and  I reckon Mick will do the same and it may get down to who gets their matchups right.

Murphy and Gibbs need to stand up and I expect the former to be also heavily tagged and bullied....

If it was a Freo home game then I would have said the Dockers but at Etihad I think we can get home if Mick gets his planning right....

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #33 –
I think we've left our run too late for Finals personally. All the remaining games are season defining now and I feel we cannot keep winning week after week. If I have to pluck two games out it's Fremantle this week and Essendon as the games we must win if we're any chance. We have to beat Port over there as well although a win over Essendon and all our other games means we could drop it and still make it.

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #34 –
Quote from: spf – on
I think we've left our run too late for Finals personally. All the remaining games are season defining now and I feel we cannot keep winning week after week. If I have to pluck two games out it's Fremantle this week and Essendon as the games we must win if we're any chance. We have to beat Port over there as well although a win over Essendon and all our other games means we could drop it and still make it.

Finishing 9th (much to Richmond's disgust) seems that it will hold currency this season.
IN WADA WE TRUST

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #35 –
Quote from: bignic – on
Rowe out, Casboult in, is a must. Rowe, unless he is on his own, can't take a mark, and even when on his own there is no guarantee. He also lacks in the area of a second effort. There is no second effort from Rowe at all. Casboult can mark and has no hesitation in crashing a pack when going for a mark. He is also a much better ruckman. Two things are holding him back.

His kicking for goal is atrocious, and he lacks fitness to run out a full game. If you have a look at his performances when he's played, he's virtually disappeared out of a game after half time. It's an are that demands he work on or his days at Senior level are numbered. But for the rest of the season, he is a far better bet than Sam.

If he wasn't asked to Ruck such a large portion of the game, it wouldn't be an issue. Warnock and Kreuzer rotating in the ruck and Casboult and Henderson up forward? Lacks a rotation, but you can always activate a midfielder as a sub if it becomes an issue.

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #36 –
Quote from: DJC – on
Quote from: bignic – on
Rowe out, Casboult in, is a must. Rowe, unless he is on his own, can't take a mark, and even when on his own there is no guarantee. He also lacks in the area of a second effort. There is no second effort from Rowe at all. Casboult can mark and has no hesitation in crashing a pack when going for a mark. He is also a much better ruckman. Two things are holding him back.

His kicking for goal is atrocious, and he lacks fitness to run out a full game. If you have a look at his performances when he's played, he's virtually disappeared out of a game after half time. It's an are that demands he work on or his days at Senior level are numbered. But for the rest of the season, he is a far better bet than Sam.

Don't agree.  Rowe has shown a lot more than Casboult this season and his game against the Suns wasn't bad.

Casboult has potential but that's not enough to earn a place in the 22.

Disagree. Casboult kept us in it against the Hawks and has shown much more against quality opposition. I'm sure Michael Johnson would prefer to play on Rowe rather than Casboult.

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #37 –
Quote from: spf – on
I think we've left our run too late for Finals personally. All the remaining games are season defining now and I feel we cannot keep winning week after week. If I have to pluck two games out it's Fremantle this week and Essendon as the games we must win if we're any chance. We have to beat Port over there as well although a win over Essendon and all our other games means we could drop it and still make it.

What's the big deal?

Freo - over rated big time..... won't be easy but very very beatable.

Doggies - again. let's see if MM has actually put some ticker into our troops - should be a 8 goal win ++ .....

Tigers? Meh, at best. We owe them a belting.

Essendon will likely be post penalty or not fielding a team by that week?

Port in Adelaide - i think they'll lose to the Crows next week, then smashed by the Cats at Skilled, then GC (not easy) then Freo in Perth another belting..... they'll be damaged goods come Rd 23.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #38 –
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Think it will be won and lost in the midfield like most games between the better teams......Fyfe, Barlow, Mundy and Hill will need negating and I expect Judd wont get much of the footy if his old mate Crowley picks him up. Sandilands is also back which means Kruezer will have to be at his best and need to run the giant around.
The Freo giant usually posts up at FF during some stage in the game when they play us  and we need to make sure we have the right mix of talls to man him up.
Ross Lyon will close the game and make it a slog fest and I dont expect to see any pretty footy and  I reckon Mick will do the same and it may get down to who gets their matchups right.

Murphy and Gibbs need to stand up and I expect the former to be also heavily tagged and bullied....

If it was a Freo home game then I would have said the Dockers but at Etihad I think we can get home if Mick gets his planning right....


Here are some match-ups worth thinking about

[?] - Scotland
[?]  - Murphy
Fyfe - Curnow
Crowley - Judd
Barlow - Carazzo
Mundy - Gibbs
Hill - Walker 

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #39 –
Freo have two genuine ruckmen (Clarke and Sandilands), wouldn't be surprised if Warnock comes in. As for Casboult vs. Rowe, I think it'll come down to whether or not Waite plays. Surely when Waite comes back Henderson and Waite play forward. If that is the case, I'd pick Casboult for his marking around the ground, especially floating back like he has done at times this year.

Last week, the only reason Cachia played was because Thompson was a late withdrawal and was replaced with a medium, so Cachia came in for Bootsma (wonder if Boots was actually "ill"? ;)). Would most likely see Boots or McInnes come back and Cachia or Lucas out depending on the fitness of the latter.

Tuohy to wipe the floor with Ballantyne's stupid face.

Gibbs on Mayne?

Simpson on Hill?

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #40 –
Quote from: LanceRomance – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: bignic – on
But where there can be no dispute at all, in my biased opinion, of course, is marking. Rowe isn't a patch on Casboult in contested marking. Casboult has proven himself capable of taking a pack mark around the ground, Rowe hasn't. I have got nothing but enormous admiration for Sam Rowe, and I hope he can have a long and healthy career as an AFL footballer.

Anyway, I'm happy to agree to disagree.
Despite your beliefs on bias, i do not believe i am bias one way or the other on casboult or rowe. Some people will say i am one way. Some will say i am bias the other way.

Your initial comment was that Casboult MUST come in because of his marking. I agree he is a better pack mark.

What i am disagreeing with is that a better mark means more importance to the team.

What is more important to the team?

A player who kicks at 50% in front of goal but gets slightly more opportunities
or
A player who converts more often than not from slightly less opportunites.

Its a dilemma the MC face. Better conversion, or potentially more opportunities to convert.

Cas has kicked 3 goals so far in the NB's

he'll replace Rowe next week

wouldnt be surprised if they pull him in the last quarter today

I would wait and see his 2nd half.   Too often at AFL level Cas blows up after half time.

I can't find stats by qtr but I can find dreamteam points which give a rough guide to productivity.  

Levi
1st:   23.8
2nd:  17.4
3rd:  15.6
4th:  9.8

I agree he is better contested mark but he becomes a liability after half time if you can't sub him off.
 

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #41 –
Also.

With Casboult in the side.   1 win, 5 losses
With Rowe in the side.   5 win, 3 losses

I just get the feeling that while Rowe doesn't clunk enough marks he does get to more contests and competes bringing the ball to ground for Garlett, Betts and Yarran.



Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #42 –
Quote from: spf – on
I think we've left our run too late for Finals personally. All the remaining games are season defining now and I feel we cannot keep winning week after week. If I have to pluck two games out it's Fremantle this week and Essendon as the games we must win if we're any chance. We have to beat Port over there as well although a win over Essendon and all our other games means we could drop it and still make it.

I ve done a conservative Ladder Predictor in which we lose to Freo and the Tigers, but can still sneak into 8th if we beat Port in Round 23.
This is because Port will drop games against Geelong at Symonds, and Freo at Subi.

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #43 –
I'm not going to be confident until Brettie gives Freo the kiss of death.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Rd 19 - Carlton vs Fremantle (Pre Contest Conundrums)

Reply #44 –
Hoping our side selected and structure allows Hendo to stay up forward.

If this is the case, I believe we should win.

fwiw - I'd prefer to see Cas get a game at this week over Rowe, purely for his pack splitting ability. As posted already Freo likely to bottle things up, which would work in Cas' favour imo.

And Robbo for a (legal) flying shoulder on Ballantyne please.