Republican of the Year

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Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #30 – February 02, 2015, 09:34:44 am

Quote from: Bear – on February 01, 2015, 09:19:40 am

First term governments getting turfed, sitting PM/Premiers getting turfed... Australian politics is broken I tells ya!

I still doubt they will dump Abbott.

No one smart will want Abbott's job because the Libs will get smacked at the next election and its a poison chalice at the minute.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #31 – February 02, 2015, 09:49:17 am

I think Abbot will go very soon as the new leader would have a reasonable time available to turn things around. Leaving Abbot in place pretty much guarantees a thrashing at the next election.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #32 – February 02, 2015, 10:00:04 am

I'm the opposite... If they dump Abbott they will definitely be out. That would be a staggering move... Similar to giving a 90 year old Greek-English buffoon a knighthood because he managed to get his leg over our constitutional head of state.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #33 – February 02, 2015, 10:08:51 am

Quote from: Bear – on February 02, 2015, 10:00:04 am

I'm the opposite... If they dump Abbott they will definitely be out. That would be a staggering move... Similar to giving a 90 year old Greek-English buffoon a knighthood because he managed to get his leg over our constitutional head of state.

I think they would consider Julie Bishop who is probably the more popular Liberal but reckon she is too clever to want the job...its funny that Joe Hockey was probably the most media/public friendly
Lib when the Libs were first elected but since his "poor people dont need petrol as they dont have cars" foot in mouth comment he is rarely seen or heard of these days...

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #34 – February 02, 2015, 10:18:34 am

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 02, 2015, 09:34:44 am

Quote from: Bear – on February 01, 2015, 09:19:40 am
First term governments getting turfed, sitting PM/Premiers getting turfed... Australian politics is broken I tells ya!

I still doubt they will dump Abbott.

No one smart will want Abbott's job because the Libs will get smacked at the next election and its a poison chalice at the minute.

How much of that though is due to Abbott.
There's electoral percentage points to be had just by changing leaders..... and the next election is far enough away that any new leader has time to establish themselves.

In a contest Shorten v an other Liberal leader it would probably be a close thing.

Added to that an increasing number of Labor State governments may impact on any federal election result should they take some moves that cause a bit of pain or stuff-up.....the final result in Queensland could have a big impact on the next federal result.

Quote from: Bear – on February 02, 2015, 10:00:04 am

I'm the opposite... If they dump Abbott they will definitely be out. That would be a staggering move... Similar to giving a 90 year old Greek-English buffoon a knighthood because he managed to get his leg over our constitutional head of state.

Labor folk aren't going to vote for him. In fact they'd love him to stay.

I think you'll find there is a tremendous anti-Abbott feeling now even amongst the staunchest of conservative supporters.

Abbott himself is enough to influence any 'middle of the road' voter in a negative fashion.

What folk don't like, and what killed the Rudd/Gillard Labor was the instability the musical chair PM created.

Where Abbott differs from Rudd is that once he's gone there is no coming back. It's done and dusted. The only uncertainty is "can the Liberal party unite behind a new leader".

Abbott has to go.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #35 – February 02, 2015, 10:34:53 am

Quote from: Lods – on February 02, 2015, 10:18:34 am

Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on February 02, 2015, 09:34:44 am
Quote from: Bear – on February 01, 2015, 09:19:40 am
First term governments getting turfed, sitting PM/Premiers getting turfed... Australian politics is broken I tells ya!

I still doubt they will dump Abbott.

No one smart will want Abbott's job because the Libs will get smacked at the next election and its a poison chalice at the minute.

How much of that though is due to Abbott.
There's electoral percentage points to be had just by changing leaders..... and the next election is far enough away that any new leader has time to establish themselves.

In a contest Shorten v an other Liberal leader it would probably be a close thing.

Added to that an increasing number of Labor State governments may impact on any federal election result should they take some moves that cause a bit of pain or stuff-up.....the final result in Queensland could have a big impact on the next federal result.

Quote from: Bear – on February 02, 2015, 10:00:04 am
I'm the opposite... If they dump Abbott they will definitely be out. That would be a staggering move... Similar to giving a 90 year old Greek-English buffoon a knighthood because he managed to get his leg over our constitutional head of state.

Labor folk aren't going to vote for him. In fact they'd love him to stay.

I think you'll find there is a tremendous anti-Abbott feeling now even amongst the staunchest of conservative supporters.

Abbott himself is enough to influence any 'middle of the road' voter in a negative fashion.

What folk don't like, and what killed the Rudd/Gillard Labor was the instability the musical chair PM created.

Where Abbott differs from Rudd is that once he's gone there is no coming back. It's done and dusted. The only uncertainty is "can the Liberal party unite behind a new leader".

Abbott has to go.

Bishop vs Shorten might close the gap but I still think Labor will win due to the damage that Abbott/Hockey etc have done ....the Libs are stinking it up with or without Abbott IMO...

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #36 – February 02, 2015, 11:14:41 am

In other words the Libs have nothing to lose and everything to gain by sacking Abbot. Most people hate him, whereas Rudd had wide support in the community.

I'm pretty sure he'll be gone this week - there I've stuck my neck out!

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #37 – February 02, 2015, 11:17:38 am

Lodsie, likewise - there is also enough time for Abbott to turn it around, and perhaps more importantly - i do not think the libs have ever taken this type of action before (eg. knifing an election winning PM in his first term). But Abbott does have to stop the brain fart politics.

I also don't think a new leader has 18 months. Consider the recent history of Rudd/Gillard... we had 3-4 years of the current government saying a lot of nasty things when in opposition about switching leaders (Bishop especially). Whoever takes over has to deal with the question of legitimacy (and this government doesn't have the numbers in the senate anyway, god knows what Clive Palmer thinks of all this), because all bets are off once you dump a PM in these circumstances. The Hawke/Keating leadership change was a long time ago, and that it the template they would want to follow - although the circumstances are completely different. It's more a repeat of Rudd/Gillard. Gillard could have waited another 12 months to call an election, but it was one of the first things she did. So would you fancy the Libs in an election in the next 3-6 months? I wouldn't.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #38 – February 02, 2015, 11:36:10 am

I find the changes in leadership quite bemusing. We were a bee's dick away from Costello taking over Howard as well. If this was another country we'd be saying they were in all sorts of turmoil.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #39 – February 02, 2015, 11:43:03 am

I think we make a bit of a mistake comparing the Rudd/ Gillard (freudian slip...I just typed Judd/ Gillard

) situation and the Abbott vs the rest.

Abbott is on the nose not only in the community in general but at the grassroots level of LNP support.

There would be no questions regarding the legitimacy of any successor because I have a feeling most folk voted Liberal in spite of having Abbott as the leader, not because of him.

A lot of folk voted LNP last time with severe reservations over the leadership.
They wouldn't vote for them today with Abbott as leader

The Libs wouldn't call an election early(next 6 months) because... yes they would struggle.

...but in reality most of the 'stuff ups' since they took government have really been 'potential' ones....they haven't made it through the Senate...they haven't really impacted. They've scared folk but they haven't hurt them so the effect will be quickly forgotten with a change in direction

On key election commitments...stopping the boats, carbon tax, mining tax they've been quite successful in delivering (whatever you think of those policies

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #40 – February 02, 2015, 11:52:53 am

@Lods

Yes, this is more of a personal thing. The Libs real perceived failures have been with Tone's pet projects like PPL and the royal knighthood, which have primarily been associated with him personally.

Put an effective leader into place and I think he/she could quickly make up ground on Shorten, who is an opportunistic stooge and stands for little of substance.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #41 – February 02, 2015, 12:05:06 pm

Quote from: Bear – on February 02, 2015, 10:00:04 am

I'm the opposite... If they dump Abbott they will definitely be out. That would be a staggering move... Similar to giving a 90 year old Greek-English buffoon a knighthood because he managed to get his leg over our constitutional head of state.

This is the issue. Abbot must have known his message was never going to get across. Prince Philip was awarded what is basically the equivalent of the Victoria Cross as a WWII veteran, this year is the 50 year anniversary of the establishment of the Duke of Edinburgh award. Which I guess is why he was getting the nod.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #42 – February 02, 2015, 12:41:25 pm

Just another factor in this issue.

NSW goes to the polls on the 28th March.
The government probably aren't in any real danger, but as in Queensland there is potential for a significant re-correction, and the Liberals will lose some seats.

One thing they wont want to see would be people taking the opportunity for a a side issue of a "national leadership/ protest vote".

There would be some pressure from NSW State folk to see this leadership business fixed up before election day.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #43 – February 02, 2015, 01:17:39 pm

Just to be fair and balanced....

Tony's at the press club at the moment and he's not going too bad.
Playing a pretty straight bat to questions of leadership.

Emphasising the need to be more consultative going forward.
Admitting to a few mistakes in the recent past.

Re: Republican of the Year

Reply #44 – February 02, 2015, 01:36:38 pm

Quote from: Lods – on February 02, 2015, 01:17:39 pm

Just to be fair and balanced....
Tony's at the press club at the moment and he's not going too bad.
Playing a pretty straight bat to questions of leadership.

Emphasising the need to be more consultative going forward.
Admitting to a few mistakes in the recent past.

How can anyone trust assurances that come from an apparent liar?

It is interesting to see how much support Tony is getting, that is primarily because his supporters like Hockey and others will lose their jobs as well! They are obeying the first rule of politics, survival!